Tol-in-Gaurhoth XVIII: The Play’s The Thing…

[Farael]

Originally Posted by Dancing daughter of the big spider

Aiwendil: Says random accusations are useless for innocents, wants to have serious discussion, asks questions about good ways to spot a wolf, how the Gifteds should act and how to vote. Wants to spread votes wider than lmp and thinks approx. 5-6 is a good number. Thinks we don't have to worry about the false Seer so much even though they might cause confusion. Says there's no need to stop talking about the Seers although they should remain hidden. Says the Seer is most useful when they're dead and we can be sure of their identity.

I come back to you at the turn of the tide, bringing news of cyclopentanes and thiotriazoles. According to my instruments..... AIWENDIL IS A WOLF!!!

Let's get this day-one accusation started

Originally Posted by Aiwendil

Now, I know we don't have much to go on as yet. But it seems to me that random accusations and similar nonsense will only help the Wolves. Meseems the sooner we get down to some serious discussion, the better the chances of our village surviving.

(post #7)

At the point this was written, there was nothing to go on with. And random accusations are not as useless as my featured acusee will make you think. If you are lucky, you may get the spotlight on a wolf, who will hopefully then make a mistake a honest villager will pick on later. Discussions can be left for later on the day, when villagers like myself have at least some evidence to go on. Such as the one presented above and the next one coming up

The Questions:
Even though one may think that a wolf will want to take a leading role in the village, so that people follow him (or her) while he carefully chooses plausible innocents to be lynched, it is quite a risky move. Only a bold wolf would do such thing, but how about Aiwendil's move? He is basically letting others take the lead, but at the same time he's putting himself on the 'good' side of the leaders. SpM, Morm or LMP are lilkely the most persuasive characters and Aiwendil seems to be trying to get them to trust him. Smart move, if you fear they may make a good case against you, isn't it?

Following piece of 'evidence'

Originally Posted by Aiwendil

I think people may be worrying a bit too much about the false Seer. True, his/her presence may lead to confusion. Certainly it would be better not to have a false Seer. But bear in mind that a 'dream' from the false Seer is no more likely to be wrong than a random guess by a bewildered villager. As long as we all bear the existence of the false Seer in mind, I think we should get along all right. I certainly don't see any call for a moratorium on talking about the Seer; though I would, again, advise the Seers themselves to stay completely hidden. Note also that, at least in my opinion, the chief value of the Seer is to be gotten after the Seer has died (after a long and fruitful life, I hope) - and when either Seer dies his or her true nature will be revealed to us.

I am not too comfortable with Seer talk in general this early... anything more than passing comments on them makes me cringe... but what really bugs me is what I bolded above. While it is true that we will not know whether the person that says to be the Seer is the true or false seer, it won't take long to realize who the false seer is once he(she) comes forward.

It is an astute and bold move to say that the Seer is useless 'till dead, master Aiwendil. That way, as long as the wolves don't nail the true seer too late, we villagers won't be able to trust whom we believe to be the Seer. And I think Aiwendil is also over-stating the problems the false seer might bring upon us. After all, it might not be long until we lynch someone the false seer has dreamt of and then he(she) will know who he(she) is.

I think you are smart enough to realize that, Aiwendil.... I think you are trying to sow dissent and uncertainty in our ranks.

Let's move on to post #60

And what harm, I ask thee, has "all this Seer talk" done?

Nothing, I think it's helping me to find a wolf

It seems to me that it's in the best interest of the village for us to be speak freely regarding strategy. Wolves thrive on secrecy

Actually, as it has been mentioned before, if we give out our strategy freely, the wolves will know how to avoid suspicion. It's just a matter of 'agreeing' on suspecting a certain kind of behaviour and then avoiding it no matter what!

in all likelihood (alas!) my vote will fall upon an innocent.

I'm never confident on those who try to downplay their votes, but I have done that before, so this is mildly a comment rather than a true piece of evidence. Although in the light of the preceeding points...

Comments on SPM, LMP and Boro
Again, we see Aiwendil trying to be nice to the most vocal ones.

Comments on Tar-ancalime
It's an easy target... If I wasn't so 'convinced' on Aiwendil's guilt, she'd be my prime suspect... but I think Tar-ancalime's mistakes look more like an innocent trying to do too much while Aiwendil's mistakes seem like a wolf trying to hide in plain view.

Again, neither Glirdan nor tar strikes me as "likely a wolf". But based on the rather meager evidence we have so far, I am leaning toward voting for one of them .

Again, trying to downplay his likely vote. While an innocent may say it once, it's now twice in the same post.

To conclude, I think that Aiwendil is being far too safe in his speech. Safe enough that it makes me think he's got something to hide. He's not playing a safe game for a villager because no villager needs to make sure the most vocal one's don't suspect him... an innocent villager knows he's innocent and trusts he will survive long enough to prove so. A guilty wolf needs to make 'friends' quickly, so that he can cast suspicion elswhere without any backlash when it's shown that the lynched person was an innocent (or even worse, a gifted).

For those reasons I say we perform the following reaction

Aiwendil + Gallows =====> Dead wolf

I will come back later with my vote... you can all probably guess who it will most likely go to.