Tol-in-Gaurhoth XVIII: The Play’s The Thing…

[Garin]

I failed to mention my distaste for this false seer business. It gives us a quite a dilemna. (Really Garin? Do go on..)

Our best hope is that the village or even the wolves, kill him or her-- thus revealing their identity. Not that I am clamoring for the death of an innocent, the Falsey just seems to benefit the wolves more.
They know who they are and know who is totally off the mark in identifying them.

I'm sure I am repeating what others have said. I admittedly still need to read several posts.

I have no voting strategy and no suspects, as of yet. I will likely vote late.

I won't say much into I can read all of the posts.

Back to baking....

[Celuien]

Originally Posted by Garin

Our best hope is that the village or even the wolves, kill him or her-- thus revealing their identity. Not that I am clamoring for the death of an innocent, the Falsey just seems to benefit the wolves more.
They know who they are and know who is totally off the mark in identifying them.
.

True, but worst case scenario is that False Seer identifies an innocent as a wolf and the village acts on the false information. So where does that take us?

1) We've attacked an innocent and reduced our population by one, something we're sadly likely to do anyway over the next few days. Then we the information given was incorrect and also know who the False Seer is. So...
2) We've identified one known innocent for the next day. One less person for the suspect list in the next day's discussions. Unless the wolves decide to eat him/her overnight. Then we're back where we started.

Altogether, I don't think the False Seer hurts the village that much, since we're not likely to be following directions for long if incorrect.

The only caveat would be a wolf impersonating a False Seer. But that's an event that would bring one or both Seers out fairly quickly and reveal a wolf in the third candidate. That's not something I'm particularly expecting to see.

And that, my friends, will be the last Seer related commentary I make toDAY.

*continues reviewing the discussion archives*

[Anguirel]

Well, I believe I now have the confidence to vote thus:

++BOROMIR88

I have often suffered through refraining to vote for Boromir...but never through voting for him! Let's see if this fits the pattern.

[Celuien]

Of Aiwendil and Farael:

I have to disagree with Farael's analysis of our local cook. Aiwendil merely looks to have been discussing strategy and feeling the same day 1 uncertainty with regard to his vote that should pretty much be expected given that there's no real evidence at this point. And honestly, I don't see anything in Aiwendil's commentary that jumps out as deceptive or distracting. While Farael is concerned over the 'safety' of his posts, it doesn't really seem like the same type of 'safe' post I'd expect from the lupine. It's only safe in that what he said seemed rational and non-controversial. But what he said was helpful, not an empty. And while I know there's been some upset over discussing gifteds early, it's a reasonable enough to address concerns over the un-gifted member of our Seer pair (there, I went and said that word again ). Could Aiwendil be a wolf? Yes. Any of us could be. But I don't find it particularly likely right now. And so I'll dismiss him from my ballot toDAY.

And as for Farael, the boldness of his accusations clears him from toDAY's suspect list as far as I'm concerned. It would be a brazen wolf who would come out that noisily against a villager today when it would be so much easier to join the general confusion and bandwagon or to make a random selection that leaves no evidence for future discussion.