WWJ IV: Let the insanity ensue - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Mithalwen · 02-19-2006, 01:17 PM

[QUOTE=Nogrod]

If you read Jenny's post onthe discussion thread, you would have noted, that her absence could continue up to Monday (RL-time). So maybe that is no reason to jump on her. I kind of remember, that it was you, who made quite an emotional speech for her RL in a less critical situation - for a cause, I agree! But now you are ready to turn your back, when the wolves could be caught?

QUOTE]

No, I am aware that she won't have posted, in my hasty retype I omitted a qualifying phrase... and I still think that she is genuinely innocent but in my last game I was happily saying that i was sure a wolf was innocent until I had a choice of 2 and it became relatively obvious I had been wrong. You will understand that in these dire circumstances, it is sensible to check everything. And so I will ...but I have been distracted by other matters so I am a bit behind.

I do stand by my speech on principle but I doubt my own judgement. It was nasty to accuse Jenny of using her RL as cover... but that doesn't automatically mean she is innocent. I believe her innocent but it isn't proof. But she is certainly not high up my list ..quite the reverse.

Valier · 02-19-2006, 01:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mith

Thinlomien and Folwren both had suspicions of Valier so she profits more by their deaths.

I don't see how I would profit from their deaths. Don't you see what the Wolves are doing? They are using me like a pawn, they didn't kill me last night because alot of you suspect me. They would be stupid to kill an Ordo everyone suspects, it takes the heat away from them. They want you to think I killed the people who suspected me. I'm not that "Frothy"

I find that there is usually a "Loud" wolf who uses the quiet Wolves at their disposal. The quiet ones will eventually bite the dust because of their quietness. But the "loud" wolf almost always sticks out their neck early on and makes it to the end, because they have "proven" their "innocence", by voting for their fellow wolves.Take this as you will, but I assure you I have seen this before. If we don't get the louder wolf first they will surely win.

Elu Ancalime · 02-19-2006, 01:45 PM

I leave for one day, and another gifted is killed. And quite brutalily, reminds me of Hannibal Lecter. It must have been a lucky guess though, because I dont remember Folwren doing anything ranger-esq, if there would be something he could do. So now its open pickins i guess....crap. This is really bad.

But im glad Firefoot and Nogrod are still here, they seem to be making the most helpful suggestions and rational judgement....

But before I begin self-analysis, I would like to extend an apology to JennyHallu.

I realize that I voted for her, And I beleive I would like to rephrase what I 'meant' to say: I even remembered in my Mind that she posted she would be gone, and it simply must have slipped. However, that is not all of it. It may have sounded paradoxal that i said id didnt think she was a wolf, and then voted for her anyway. What I was trying to say was that of all of us, she was acting the most wolvish to me. Per se, on a scale of one to ten (1 being most innocent and 10 being an wolf with linking proof) i would say the majority of the villagers were a 4 and Jenny seemed to be a 5 or 6 to me. Sorry about any mixups.

I will back later to present more thoughts once I have read today's posts...
________
Extreme q vaporizer

Nogrod · 02-19-2006, 01:32 PM

Quote:

=Valier
Firefoot has been pretty much concentrating on me and Roa. I think Roa is an Ordo because if she is a wolf I don't think she would have voted for me again today after I declared my innocence yesterday.

What kind of an argument is that??? Would you please elaborate a little? I'm taking this as a highly susceptible one. How on Middle Earth would anyone's plead about his/her innocence lead straightly to certain reactions on part of the others?

Quote:

Mithalwen
You will understand that in these dire circumstances, it is sensible to check everything.

I'm beginning to feel quite the contrary. We need to have suspects with some real backing now, not those "there is a possibility of X being something or another, but really couldn't say". Let's not waste our time (1½ hours), but bring forth good cases!

EDIT: Cross-posted with Mith & Valier

Mithalwen · 02-19-2006, 01:36 PM

Well there was a lot more time when I started trying to post ..... and I am one of those people who takes about half an hour to leave the house because they have to check several times that they haven't left the gas on and doors unlocked...

Nogrod · 02-19-2006, 01:39 PM

Quote:

=Mith
Could you explain why you are sure that Valier is innocent? Given that it was a hairs breadth decison for me last night, I would like your reasoning...

I have not claimed her innocence as a fact. Read my post carefully. I'm just worried about all this nonsense distracting us from killing a very believable wolf. There sure is more case over Roa than Valier, so let's just concentrate on the essentials. Meaning also, that if you can come up with real evidence over Valier that would out-do my evidence over Roa, I might be ready to change my mind...

Nogrod · 02-19-2006, 01:43 PM

Quote:

=Mith
Thinlomien and Folwren both had suspicions of Valier so she profits more by their deaths.

What kind of an accusation is this? We all know, that those were first day's wild guesses or "hunches". There's no reason for anyone to act on them!

I'm beginning to have doubts on you Mith... if you can't come up with some explanations.

Valier · 02-19-2006, 01:50 PM

Firefoot please read post 181 for my reason on voting for Mith. And no I will not go into it anymore It really was like a first day vote! This game is hard with all the people gone.

Nogrod you are making more sense with every passing post!

Mithalwen · 02-19-2006, 01:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

What kind of an accusation is this? We all know, that those were first day's wild guesses or "hunches". There's no reason for anyone to act on them!

I'm beginning to have doubts on you Mith... if you can't come up with some explanations.

It was a comment in response to an accusation not an accusation in itself. If you read the preceding sentence..

Mithalwen · 02-19-2006, 01:48 PM

Ok - I guess having found Valier, to use the phrase she hates though it be apt, for two days I have to get over my instincts in order to support yours. Also she is rather sensitive about Firefoot's comments and I am rather inclined to trust Firefoot who has overcome my initial qualms and has been solidly provoking and making discussion throughout. But whatever you say I do want to make sure that early day prejudices don't cloud my choice. That reluctance perhaps tipped the balance for me last time and an innocent Sleepy died. Maybe if I had gone for Valier another innocent would have died - I don't know.

"One innocent having the first vote" did seem to imply confidence in Valier's innocence. btw

Nogrod · 02-19-2006, 01:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

"One innocent having the first vote" did seem to imply confidence in Valier's innocence. btw

It's quite misleading to quote other people intentionally in a wrong light!!! Read the quote please... (#174)

Quote:

=Nogrod
OH, how stupid of me!

Now one innocent is having the first vote (that holds, if the wolves are not so cunning as to vote for one of their own kind to uplift the suspicion: I think wolves could do that to reach their goal, maybe?)!

Sorry...

Mithalwen · 02-19-2006, 02:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

It's quite misleading to quote other people intentionally in a wrong light!!! Read the quote please... (#174)

Sorry...

I am not trying to put anyone in a wrong light I am just trying to understand and I am now more confused than ever. I can't help what you think but I genuinely thought you were certain of Valier's innocence and since I wasn't, I really wanted to know why. Or am I meant to do what you want unquestioningly?

Mithalwen · 02-19-2006, 02:12 PM

Sorry Nogrod, I think I understand now..... I find "tone of voice" hard online .. and i might be getting a bit oversensitive... I thought you meant I was trying to put someone in a bad light deliberately.

If the time has moved, I can't stay to the end. Too late with work tomorrow....

Elu Ancalime · 02-19-2006, 02:05 PM

Hmm...well, I think I kinda have an idea of whats going on....in context, anyway...
So it sounds like Nogrod and Roa have been going back in forth exchanging theories...and Mith and Valier have been more solid (which is more tha I can say about my self, I regret to admit), and it looks like Mith will have something on Jenny soon. Firefoot seems to be normal-rational, patient.

I can formulate my own suspicoins of what is going on right now, but they are not concrete and I need to read over again, just to clarify what's been said and the 'feelings' i guess.

So, um, would anybody like to make a quick summary of whats happened so far today? (since we have......2/3 hours depending on Kitanna's timeframe, and I want to put in a reasonable vote; its dangerously risky now.) My vote is (equally important with the other villagers) crucial today, and I dont want to be a random/gut feeling/flimsy accusation/wrong comprehension. Thank you....

________
Extreme q

Firefoot · 02-19-2006, 02:19 PM

This would have taken much less time if I had not been called away from my computer... urgh...

Jenny:

Post 5
Randomly accuses Sleepy, Elu, and Roa. To foster discussion?

Post 10
Randomly accuses Eonwe. Asks Mithalwen for a biscuit (still don’t know how much there is to this).

Post 12
Suggests lynching the last person to contribute to the discussion.

Post 16
An analysis apparently based largely on occupation. Lommy, Sleepy, Roa, Nogrod, Elu and Folwren are suspicious, Gandalf, Wilwa, and Valier are in between, me, Jenny, and Mithalwen are innocent in this list.

Post 26
She advises spreading out the vote, making sure we understand our information, and looking closely at anyone who talks a lot. She comments about my contradictiveness, a point that she has “stolen” from Mithalwen, who she seems to mention a lot. A wolf using an innocent? I don’t think it is a wolf relying too much on a fellow wolf anymore, as I am thinking Mithalwen is innocent.

Post 30
She seems to go back on some of her statements in the previous post, revising them a little bit to make them seem more acceptable to people. This quote is rather… interesting: “I mean, really, if I were a wolf, it seems obvious that it would be stupid to be quite so vociferous. It certainly seems to bring suspicion immediately on my head, which is not at all my intention, as I am innocent.” Well, a wolf wouldn’t want to bring suspicion on themselves either. In fact, this quote seems to suggest strongly to me that perhaps she is a wolf saying how she could be doing things differently. Perhaps strategy A seemed not to be working?

Post 36
Advises Sleepy to be more careful in ascribing quotes to the wrong people. Defends herself to Folwren. Generally, she seems pretty defensive – because she has something to hide?

Post 40
Gratitude to Folwren for elaborating.

Post 44
Advises Sleepy not to give up as if he would be innocent then lynching him would not be in the best interest of the village. If she is a wolf, this would be a good thing to say to make her look innocent, but since this is her first game… it seems to speak in her favor.

Post 47
Apologizes for mixing up Lommy’s gender

Post 51
States voting thus far. Repetition of how good Mithalwen’s muffins are. (Is it just me who finds this really odd?)

Post 61
Request for clarification on some people’s points.

Post 66
Votes Wilwa to save herself and for her quietness. Fair enough, I suppose.

Post 70 & 72
Both one-liners about the status of the voting.

Post 98
An explanation of her absence and the previous day’s vote. Seems pretty fair to me.

Hm... I'm still not really sure. Some things seem to point to her guilt, others to her innocence. She's not nearly as suspicious as some others.

Okay, I'm going to start on Nogrod but it will take a while... he's posted a lot. So you may get it in halves depending on how long it takes.

Valier - I still do not see why Mithalwen is suspicious to you. All you said about Mith in that post was this:

Quote:

Like I said yesterday there are key players and YES I did say they are normally loud innocents and YES I still voted for Mith. As for my vote for her it was because I really was confused and voted for someone who I really felt at the time could be a wolf.

That tells me nothing about why.

Valier · 02-19-2006, 01:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

What kind of an argument is that??? Would you please elaborate a little? I'm taking this as a highly susceptible one. How on Middle Earth would anyone's plead about his/her innocence lead straightly to certain reactions on part of the others?

I think it would be a big mistake on her part if she was a wolf, voting for me after I stated my innocence making it two days in a row she's voted for me. I have learned from past games that a Wolf will not do this unless they are really bold. She seems easily swayed by an empty analisis from Firefoot. To me Firefoot could be the wolf brains and there for try to sway others away from himself with "Wise" words.Wolves usually do not vote first or start a bandwagon, because it makes everyone look at them more closly. But by just swaying the vote in their favor it is much less bold.

Firefoot · 02-19-2006, 01:42 PM

I think that Mith is sensible to be considering all her options - it would not do to plunge blindly into the voting just following what everyone else had said. We need people to make informed decisions based on what they think.

Valier - I would still like to know why you think Mithalwen is suspicious. You have provided us with no reasons or evidence.

I'm glad to see that we at least have a couple more people contributing to the discussion.

I'm still confused about when this day is ending. Do I have a little more than one hour or a little more than two?

I'm going to try and get in one of those analyses on Jenny now. If I have time, I'll try and do a couple more people as well - Nogrod would probably be next on the list.

Oh, and may I repeat: I am a she.

Nogrod · 02-19-2006, 01:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Firefoot

I'm still confused about when this day is ending. Do I have a little more than one hour or a little more than two?

I'm going to try and get in one of those analyses on Jenny now. If I have time, I'll try and do a couple more people as well - Nogrod would probably be next on the list.

Has anyone PM'd Kitanna about it? I'm also worried about that.

Don't waste your time on her, for with these minutes we have better usage. There have been substantial discussion only today and maybe yesterday late evening. There is nothing new there.

But please go analyzing me instead. That would make even a little sense. Although I would like to see you looking at Roa's messages from today and see for yourselves!

Only a wolf would like us to be confused and search tiny bits and pieces from everywhere (there really is nothing new there!) and not concentrate on essentials.

02-19-2006, 01:45 PM	#3
Elu Ancalime Shade of Carn Dûm Join Date: Dec 2005 Location: Anador Posts: 476	Are you kidding me I leave for one day, and another gifted is killed. And quite brutalily, reminds me of Hannibal Lecter. It must have been a lucky guess though, because I dont remember Folwren doing anything ranger-esq, if there would be something he could do. So now its open pickins i guess....crap. This is really bad. But im glad Firefoot and Nogrod are still here, they seem to be making the most helpful suggestions and rational judgement.... But before I begin self-analysis, I would like to extend an apology to JennyHallu. I realize that I voted for her, And I beleive I would like to rephrase what I 'meant' to say: I even remembered in my Mind that she posted she would be gone, and it simply must have slipped. However, that is not all of it. It may have sounded paradoxal that i said id didnt think she was a wolf, and then voted for her anyway. What I was trying to say was that of all of us, she was acting the most wolvish to me. Per se, on a scale of one to ten (1 being most innocent and 10 being an wolf with linking proof) i would say the majority of the villagers were a 4 and Jenny seemed to be a 5 or 6 to me. Sorry about any mixups. I will back later to present more thoughts once I have read today's posts... ________ Extreme q vaporizer Last edited by Elu Ancalime; 03-03-2011 at 11:04 PM.

02-19-2006, 01:36 PM	#5
Mithalwen Pilgrim Soul Join Date: May 2004 Location: watching the wonga-wonga birds circle... Posts: 9,461	Well there was a lot more time when I started trying to post ..... and I am one of those people who takes about half an hour to leave the house because they have to check several times that they haven't left the gas on and doors unlocked... __________________ “But Finrod walks with Finarfin his father beneath the trees in Eldamar.” Christopher Tolkien, Requiescat in pace

02-19-2006, 01:48 PM	#10
Mithalwen Pilgrim Soul Join Date: May 2004 Location: watching the wonga-wonga birds circle... Posts: 9,461	Ok - I guess having found Valier, to use the phrase she hates though it be apt, for two days I have to get over my instincts in order to support yours. Also she is rather sensitive about Firefoot's comments and I am rather inclined to trust Firefoot who has overcome my initial qualms and has been solidly provoking and making discussion throughout. But whatever you say I do want to make sure that early day prejudices don't cloud my choice. That reluctance perhaps tipped the balance for me last time and an innocent Sleepy died. Maybe if I had gone for Valier another innocent would have died - I don't know. "One innocent having the first vote" did seem to imply confidence in Valier's innocence. btw __________________ “But Finrod walks with Finarfin his father beneath the trees in Eldamar.” Christopher Tolkien, Requiescat in pace

02-19-2006, 02:12 PM	#13
Mithalwen Pilgrim Soul Join Date: May 2004 Location: watching the wonga-wonga birds circle... Posts: 9,461	Sorry Nogrod, I think I understand now..... I find "tone of voice" hard online .. and i might be getting a bit oversensitive... I thought you meant I was trying to put someone in a bad light deliberately. If the time has moved, I can't stay to the end. Too late with work tomorrow.... __________________ “But Finrod walks with Finarfin his father beneath the trees in Eldamar.” Christopher Tolkien, Requiescat in pace

02-19-2006, 02:05 PM	#14
Elu Ancalime Shade of Carn Dûm Join Date: Dec 2005 Location: Anador Posts: 476	Hmm...well, I think I kinda have an idea of whats going on....in context, anyway... So it sounds like Nogrod and Roa have been going back in forth exchanging theories...and Mith and Valier have been more solid (which is more tha I can say about my self, I regret to admit), and it looks like Mith will have something on Jenny soon. Firefoot seems to be normal-rational, patient. I can formulate my own suspicoins of what is going on right now, but they are not concrete and I need to read over again, just to clarify what's been said and the 'feelings' i guess. So, um, would anybody like to make a quick summary of whats happened so far today? (since we have......2/3 hours depending on Kitanna's timeframe, and I want to put in a reasonable vote; its dangerously risky now.) My vote is (equally important with the other villagers) crucial today, and I dont want to be a random/gut feeling/flimsy accusation/wrong comprehension. Thank you.... ________ Extreme q Last edited by Elu Ancalime; 03-03-2011 at 11:04 PM.

02-19-2006, 01:17 PM	#1
Mithalwen Pilgrim Soul Join Date: May 2004 Location: watching the wonga-wonga birds circle... Posts: 9,461	[QUOTE=Nogrod] If you read Jenny's post onthe discussion thread, you would have noted, that her absence could continue up to Monday (RL-time). So maybe that is no reason to jump on her. I kind of remember, that it was you, who made quite an emotional speech for her RL in a less critical situation - for a cause, I agree! But now you are ready to turn your back, when the wolves could be caught? QUOTE] No, I am aware that she won't have posted, in my hasty retype I omitted a qualifying phrase... and I still think that she is genuinely innocent but in my last game I was happily saying that i was sure a wolf was innocent until I had a choice of 2 and it became relatively obvious I had been wrong. You will understand that in these dire circumstances, it is sensible to check everything. And so I will ...but I have been distracted by other matters so I am a bit behind. I do stand by my speech on principle but I doubt my own judgement. It was nasty to accuse Jenny of using her RL as cover... but that doesn't automatically mean she is innocent. I believe her innocent but it isn't proof. But she is certainly not high up my list ..quite the reverse. __________________ “But Finrod walks with Finarfin his father beneath the trees in Eldamar.” Christopher Tolkien, Requiescat in pace

02-19-2006, 01:50 PM	#8
Valier Twisted Taleswapper Join Date: Dec 2005 Location: somewhere between sanity and insanity Posts: 1,706	Firefoot please read post 181 for my reason on voting for Mith. And no I will not go into it anymore It really was like a first day vote! This game is hard with all the people gone. Nogrod you are making more sense with every passing post!

02-19-2006, 01:42 PM	#17
Firefoot Illusionary Holbytla Join Date: Dec 2003 Posts: 7,547	I think that Mith is sensible to be considering all her options - it would not do to plunge blindly into the voting just following what everyone else had said. We need people to make informed decisions based on what they think. Valier - I would still like to know why you think Mithalwen is suspicious. You have provided us with no reasons or evidence. I'm glad to see that we at least have a couple more people contributing to the discussion. I'm still confused about when this day is ending. Do I have a little more than one hour or a little more than two? I'm going to try and get in one of those analyses on Jenny now. If I have time, I'll try and do a couple more people as well - Nogrod would probably be next on the list. Oh, and may I repeat: I am a she.