WWJ IV: Let the insanity ensue

[Firefoot]

Well, who says were not getting anywhere? I think this has been the best morning we've had.

Oh, I agree. What I meant was that if both of us were innocent and we were just arguing about ourselves, we weren't getting anywhere with the real wolves, so I wanted to expand the search outwards a bit.

Remember: we will have to make a choice this evening! And as we have a kind of a case here, nothing less than this should satisfy us, when the evening comes.

The problem is that very few people have posted enough to make a real case against.

Your case against Roa is unconvincing to me. Maybe it's because Roa seems a heck of a lot more innocent to me than you do. I know you think it's suspicious that Roa and I think so much alike, but, at least on my end, it's entirely coincidental, and if she is a wolf, she is doing a superb job of imitating an innocent's posting.

I just woke up about fifteen minutes ago; I'll be trying to dig up what I can find about those people I am more suspicious of. I will be out of the house for a couple hours this morning/early afternoon, though.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Firefoot

Your case against Roa is unconvincing to me. Maybe it's because Roa seems a heck of a lot more innocent to me than you do. I know you think it's suspicious that Roa and I think so much alike, but, at least on my end, it's entirely coincidental, and if she is a wolf, she is doing a superb job of imitating an innocent's posting.

You may say, it's unconvincing. But as I said: make a better one! We have to vote today, and we can't afford any random gut-feelings anymore. That someone "seems" to someone a lot more innocent is not an argument or a case!

She has done a superb job, until today, when she made her miscalculation and got strangled in her own words, too many times, in too consistent manner.

But sure: go ahead with better ones. I'm all ears, and would be happy to find a stronger case. I think we all would...

[Roa_Aoife]

I'm back! Well, it's nice to see some discussion has taken place. Nogrod, you seem determined to misunderstand me.

1) I have not been the only one to have suspicions about Roa along the way. Not to be readily articulated and thence not a good piece - but a piece nevertheless.

Who else? Valier. And that was after I started suspecting her. Nor did she ever give a good reason for it. I'd be more inclined to think that was retalitory than anything else. I should point out that Valier was also suspicious of Mith, but you seem to be more than ready to let her go.

2) Her bad contradicting of herself early this morning. First she was looking for evidence from Folwren's posts to help with the case - surely knowing, that they would point to other directions. When accused of that, she argued, that it would be a fool's work for a WW to kill someone who had suspicions about that WW!

This is the second time I've explained this. Yes, we need to look at Folwren's pots but not in a conventional matter. I'm sorry that I wasn't more clear last night- my brain was a little fried by some RL issues.

Then she went on telling, that

But just a couple of lines further she said, that

So which one of these two alternatives was she thinking? And what was this mysterious "us" doing there?

Us? The people Folwren didn't suspect, duh. I'd have thought that was obvious. And Folwren wasn't suspicious of me. I don't see how I was contradicting myself. I said don't look at the most obviously suspicious to Folwren, look at the least suspicious, and that would be myself, Firefoot, and Mith. I have nothing to hide, and if all your evidence is dependent on my frazzled thoughts today, then I don't what do say. I just don't see the contradiction.

It would be quite suspicious, if someone would like to make oneself look suspicious, wouldn't it? According to Roa's defence at point 2, she basically says, that she was quite ready to draw suspicion over herself, she just forgot to mention this altruistic plan of hers in the first place. This is either a WW, trying to explain away a made mistake, or then utterly stupid villager who tries to offer herself as a bite for the hangers (why? oh, why?). I think no-one would opt for Roa being stupid!

Of course not, least of all me! I don't want to be lynched, but I know that thinking along conventional lines will get us nowhere. We need to be looking at the least suspicious. If that happens to be me, then so be it, but I have only my innocence to show. There were two others in that group. Don't spend all your time attacking one person and not look at the others, we can't afford that.

5) Then there of course is this "I've never been a wolf before". Well, it's just a slip of tongue. But one should note it's existence. Many criminals are gotten by this kind of things.

Oh no, this again. I should note that before also includes Day's 1 and 2 and Night's 1,2, and 3. Honestly, I was very frazzled before and used poor grammar. I mean, that's just silly.

But all in all, I'm glad someone is doing some analysis, even if it's the wrong person. Remember we need to lynch a wolf tonight.

I also think it's a tad unfair to attack me when you know I won't be on for sometime to defend myself, really. I extend to time constraints courtesy to my fellow players, and I expect the same from them.

Speaking of that, why are we the only ones talking? Does no one else have anything to add?

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

There were two others in that group. Don't spend all your time attacking one person and not look at the others, we can't afford that.

I also think it's a tad unfair to attack me when you know I won't be on for sometime to defend myself, really. I extend to time constraints courtesy to my fellow players, and I expect the same from them.

Well. We can lynch only one wolf at the time, and I do believe, your case is the most obvious. The others haven't made your mistakes. At least yet... So what we can't afford now, is wasting time on sidetracks. I'm still all ears for any better candidates... I just myself can't see a case built over anyone else as good as on you. You too are free to suggest one.

As I said earlier: we need grounded suspicions now, not whitewashing, for we have to decide tonight. You could try to build one on me, for instance, and see how believable you can make it. Many good claims to be compared is better than total confusion of nine either/or -cases...

I do think, that one should give the chance to fellow players according to time limits, but one has his own timelimits too. And I have acted in good faith, believing, that there will be people discussing here while I myself am at sleep: and at the worst scenario, voting before I can make my point.

I must admit, that I'm very disapointed about the way things have turned out. No-one has been here exept for you, Firefoot and Valier. This really looks grim.

[Roa_Aoife]

Well, if you've made it up in your mind that I'm a wolf, you might as well look for the other two. I can't exactly runaway you know. As for me, I'm going to be looking for three wolves, though I'm beginning to belive that I'm conversing with one.

To attack so viciously an easy target.... that doesn't look good for you Nogrod.

And easy for you to say make a case- you have all my posts for today to go on. Now I could go on your posts, but that would be retailiation, and I could go on Firefoot's post's but he's done nothing suspicious. I notice you haven't looked at my posts from the previous days. Why not?

I daresay a case against you could be made, but you've tied my hands, for to retaliate is death. But to not retaliate is death. Bravo, Nogrod.

[Firefoot]

Okay, this is a style of analysis that I have found helpful in the past - by briefly summarizing and commenting on each post, nothing is taken out of context and patterns become more evident. The problem is that it is only really helpful if there is real substance and amount to people's posts; it didn't reveal much about Eonwe or Elu, but Valier's turned up some interesting things.

Eonwe:

Post 13
Nothing very helpful, nothing particularly wolvish. He scorns Day 1 strategies.

Post 27
Repetition that Day 1 sucks. Once more, nothing here.

Post 49
Votes Jenny on what he calls gut instinct, but at least not randomly. He says she feels like a new wolf to him.

Post 57
He clarifies his vote for Jenny, says that she changes her opinion around too much to fit others’ ideas and suspicions. A repetition that Day 1 won’t be very useful. Okay, I can’t really blame him here since these are similar feelings to what I was feeling about Jenny.

Post 60
One line post, nothing there again.

Post 78
Explains that he had a feeling Lommy would die during the night. Hm…

Post 88
Agrees that Lommy made a lot of sense for the wolves to go after. Says that his suspicions were turning toward Roa and Jenny as they had voted for Wilwa.

Post 96
Continues his reasoning for his suspicions of Jenny, says he intends to vote for her. Says that Folwren, Mith, and myself all look pretty good to him.

Post 99
Explains to Jenny that his suspicion of her is not based on her silence.

Objectively looking at these posts… there really doesn’t seem to be that much there. Nothing to support my suspicions of him anyway. The real founder of my suspicions of him and Nogrod was a possibility of some kind of wolvish alliance, and I haven’t entirely given that up – especially since Nogrod seemed so suspicious of him on into Day 2, but all of a sudden that seems to have gone out the window without any indication of an in-between stage. But other than that, there really isn’t very much there, and what is there seems supportive of his innocence. For the time being, Eonwe is on my emerging in-between list.

Elu:

Post 9
Jokes about were-birds.

[Has computer troubles, does not post again till Day 2]

Post 81
Starts to comment about how he thought Lommy was behaving oddly, then descends into more speculation about were-birds.

Post 84
Says he appreciated my analysis, but that we had to be careful in discriminating fact from bias.

Post 86
Regrets Valier’s inconsistency and frothiness.

Post 90
Although he says that he wouldn’t outright accuse Jenny, he votes for her, mostly for her silence that day, despite her warning. This is irritating but not exactly suspicious.

Once again, there really isn’t anything here. Nothing to prove his innocence or guilt. He’s just sort of all over the place, and Roa’s description in Post 144 is sticking with me.

Valier:

Post 4
“I can’t believe Kitanna is dead!!” pretty well sums up this post.

Post 8
Says we should focus on catching wolves and that people should speak up (but with lots more exclamation points).

Post 34
Says that people who post lengthy analyses tend to get lynched faster and that’s why she doesn’t. This would be extremely harmful to us, and definitely raises warning bells in my head, or it would if it wasn’t accompanied by so many exclamation points and big grin smilies.

Post 39
Says that other people are better communicators than she is, advises against bandwagoning.

Post 41
Votes randomly for Elu because “his music stinks.”

Post 87
See post 4… plus a comment that it’s time to get down to business.

Post 100-101
Analysis: Jenny – probably innocent, maybe cunning wolf; Eonwe – probably innocent, she agrees with most of his posts; Sleepy – she wants to see more of him; Roa – no real opinion, apologizes for frothiness; Nogrod – no real verdict; Elu – she says his posts are weird; Gandalf – she wonders if we shouldn’t just lynch him to be on the safe side in case he’s trying to slip under the radar; Folwren – Valier was rather insulted by her wondering if it was her first time playing, she seems to be getting frustrated at others’ frustrations for her frothiness – I quote: “IT WAS THE FIRST DAY!!!”; Mithalwen – again, no real verdict, says she has nothing to hide. This post sort of has me wondering. It seems innocent enough but what catches my eye is that she only makes a judgment about the people who are not suspicious of her. Also, perhaps by oversight, her list is not complete – I for one am not on it.

Post 103
Complains about how little of substance there is, says she will be voting soon.

Post 106
Says the key players are Mithalwen, Folwren, Roa, and myself. Votes Mithalwen for no apparent reason except that she thinks she is a clever wolf. This seems strange to me, that you would identify key players and then vote for one of them. The loudest people aren’t necessarily the wolves.

Post 116 & 119
Begs us not to kill her. Promises to do a dance if we don’t. This, I think, is a little over the top…

Post 122
“Ok kill me then you will see! I may be a bit "Frothy" but I have no hidden fur!” Maybe, maybe not.

Post 138
Thinks Gandalf should be penalized for not voting two nights in a row. Now she claims that the key players are most often loud innocents – so why the heck did she vote for Mithalwen?? She thinks it’s odd that Mithalwen hasn’t defended herself, even though she has made no real accusations against her except voting randomly. She says it’s important not to make a mistake so we should vote for someone who has posted a fair bit – didn’t she just say that the loud ones were often innocent? Now this is what I would call contradicting. Essentially she seems to be proposing that we lynch the louder ones because they are loud. It reminds me nothing so much as the little story here: http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...62&postcount=1 Sorry if that’s slightly irrelevant.

Post 149
Thinks Jenny, Nogrod, me, Elu, and Gandalf are innocent while Eonwe, Mithalwen, and Roa are not. Is very vague about why. In fact, I would really like to know why she finds Mithalwen so suspicious – I have yet to see a reason other than that Mithalwen was the first to call her frothy.

After doing this, I have become quite suspicious of Valier. I can’t really tell if she’s a sloppy wolf or just frothy and rather… inept? It seems entirely possible to me that if she’s a wolf she wants to attack the loudmouths because the other two wolves are both quiet ones.

I'm not even going to bother doing this for Gandalf - he only has about three insubstantial posts. It may be useful to do with Jenny though.

Oh, and Roa, I'm a she. Also, I'm agreeing very much with what you're saying... Nogrod seems pretty determined right now to paint you as a wolf.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Firefoot

After doing this, I have become quite suspicious of Valier. I can’t really tell if she’s a sloppy wolf or just frothy and rather… inept? It seems entirely possible to me that if she’s a wolf she wants to attack the loudmouths because the other two wolves are both quiet ones.

Well, I agree with you somewhat. She's on my shared third place of suspects. That third is a pair, and I'm really having trouble to wrench over which one. But as I appreciate your analysis, I can't see it more damning that the case of Roa. Indeed, if we look at the style of her writing, she seems more like a quite young and unsure person - what you call ineptness. Look at all those exclamation marks and smiles around... And what comes to her clumsiness, they seem to be differences between first ideas and later opinions. Not actual discrepancies done later in the game, which would count - as I'm counting them on Roa.

But thanks Firefoot. That is exactly what I would like to see more today!

EDIT: Cross-posting with both Firefoot & ROa

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

Well, if you've made it up in your mind that I'm a wolf, you might as well look for the other two. I can't exactly runaway you know. As for me, I'm going to be looking for three wolves, though I'm beginning to belive that I'm conversing with one.

To attack so viciously an easy target.... that doesn't look good for you Nogrod.

I'm looking at them all the time - and do have some suspicions. But not good enough to go on expressing them publicly as yet. We need one today, as I said. One. The turn for the others is tomorrow.

Although I guess I have to be a bit more vocal about my other suspicions later on, as we see how this day settles. For I really do think I'm writing my own death-sentence all the time. I'll be awake the next night, but propably won't be a match to a werewolf.

Well. Someone furiously defending his family, quite all alone, against silver-tongued werewolves doesn't exactly look good. He isn't supposed to. He would lose without the attack - and the village would do so too.

As you yourself readily to admit being an easy target, you at the same time reveal your fear of the case being there.

Remember: all I want, is a better theory. You, or anyone produce it, and I'll vote for it...

[Firefoot]

Nogrod - the trouble with finding a better theory is that in order to make a theory, there needs to be something to make a theory from! You, me, and Roa are the only people who have really posted extensively today. Mithalwen has been active, but there isn't anything very recent. Most of the rest of the people, there just isn't enough to make a theory out of. So unless I chose to pick on either Roa, you, or Mith, there isn't going to be any kind of really substantial theory. What I've picked out on Valier is going to be about as good as it gets, through no fault of mine or anyone else's except the people who don't post. If the villagers lose, it won't be the fault (not wholly) of those who are posting, but of those who are not. It's easy for me to rank the three of you in suspiciousness, but just because Roa might make the best case for a wolf doesn't make her one - the trouble is that a good case can't really be made for those people that I am more suspicious of.

/rant

Anyhow, I'm going to be leaving shortly - in less than a half hour - and probably won't be home for about three hours, unless we decide to go out for lunch like my family was talking about yesterday. So I'm not exactly sure when I'll be back - but I will be back in plenty of time to vote.

Just for clarification - Kitanna, the Day will run a full 24 hours, even though it started about an hour late, correct? Will that extra hour ever get made up somewhere (during a night, I would assume), or will the game just continue running an hour later than it started?

[Roa_Aoife]

As you yourself readily to admit being an easy target, you at the same time reveal your fear of the case being there.

What? I'm an easy target because my brain was fried before. But you have ignored all of my defenses since you started on my case, so I don't know why you would listen to that one. Why is that? Is it because you know that I am innocent and can't risk acknowledging my own evidence to the case?

You also seem sure that no one will bring a case against you. Why? Because to do that would look like a team-play to everyone else. You have covered your tracks well today.

Edit: Cross post with Firefoot. Sorry for the gender confusion! As I said, my brain is fried.