Tol-in-Gaurhoth XVII: The Saga Continues to Continue quite Continuously

[Glirdan]

Malka the Seer eh? For the longest time, I thought that TGWBS was the Seer. His sudden change in suspicion of me seemed very odd, yet I think he might have caught on to something that the villagers haven't. But now I see it was all a ploy for villagers to trust him and to confuse us.

I'm ok with the double lynching idea but if we are to do that, I still think that we should go for either Garin or Kath. I think there's a stronger case against Kath though. She's really been flying under my radar. Making herself heard yet not attracting to much suspicion. And now, looking back at the voting pattern for the first few Days, she's had the same vote as TGWBS each Day except for day 2 when she voted for Valier instead. Another thing I notice about her is that on everyDay (except for Day 4 because she had to vote early) she's voted late in the Day after the votes have gathered enough for them. She's definetly raised up in my suspicions list.

I'm going to wait to vote to see what else develops.

[The Saucepan Man]

Well, the villagers had better win after all this. I have just spent the best part of my Sunday re-reading the entire thread, when I should have been unpacking boxes and putting up shelves in my new lawyerly residence.

More of that later ...

For now:

Originally Posted by dancing spawn

TGWBS will be lynched toDay. Malkatoj will be killed next Night, and at dawn, here we are with four known innocents and five unknowns. If we choose someone to die from the 'unknowns' group with TGWBS, we have tomorrow four known innocents against four unknowns and thus better chances to spot the final wolf.

OK, the maths works for me. I am up for a double-lynching - if we can organise it. Note, if we are going to do this, the Hunter should declare so that we do not lynch him or her by mistake. That will also give us more known innocents (assuming that malkatoj did not dream of the Hunter).

Problem is that we need to agree on who we should double-lynch. And the last Wolf and the Cobbler are both capable of mucking up our plans, and perhaps even saving TGWBS. We need to be alive to this risk and one or more of our trusted villagers will need to stay around until the end of voting to make sure that things do not go wrong. I may be able to do this. Nilp probably won't be around again today and Formendacil and malkatoj have already voted. How about you, morm?

More in a bit with my thoughts on who the last Wolf might be.

In the meantime - HUNTER, PLEASE DECLARE YOURSELF.

[Glirdan]

Well, it's oddly quiet toDay.

Now, I know this is going to be both a very stupid and incriminating questions but I have to ask it. Why do we ABSOLUTELY want the Hunter to reveal him/herself? Yes it would have another innocent narrowed down, but by the sounds of it, TGWBS and the other Wolf already know who it is. Here is exactly what he said:

And then, while you-know-who is certainly the you-know-what, what with the innocent list, it's safer to pick them off than killing you-know-who.

Now, does that not seem like they already know who it is? Now TGWBS's suggested plan for the final Wolf is to leave whoever they're talking about in be and go after the people in the innocent list starting with Malka. If the Hunter reveals him/herself, then that gives the last Wolf more incentive to go after the Hunter after tomorrow Night and possibly take down another Wolf with him/her. Do we really want to risk that chance?

Edit: Cross-posted with SpM

[mormegil]

On second thought I don't think the double lynching is the greatest idea and we should probably wait until the situation is a bit more desperate.

++TGWBS

I still claim Formendacil is the cobbler and that he should be lynched tomorrow if we don't know who the wolf is.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Originally Posted by Glirdan

Now, does that not seem like they already know who it is? Now TGWBS's suggested plan for the final Wolf is to leave whoever they're talking about in be and go after the people in the innocent list starting with Malka. If the Hunter reveals him/herself, then that gives the last Wolf more incentive to go after the Hunter after tomorrow Night and possibly take down another Wolf with him/her. Do we really want to risk that chance?

I think TGWBS' "you-know-who" talk was just something he said to spite us. However, if the Hunter is among the known innocents, I don't see why s/he should declare him/herself.

[The Saucepan Man]

Who might be the last Wolf out of the remaining unknowns?

Gil-Galad
An unknown quantity. His posts, and his one vote, tell us very little. But I still have a concern that, with Naria voting infrequently, the third Wolf would not be such a consistent non-voter too.

Originally Posted by TGWBS on Day 1

I, TGWBS, hereby formally declare suspicion of the following: Wayne, SpM, mormegil, Gil, Abercrombie.

Four of those he randomly accused on Day 1 are now known to be innocent. Is the fifth also innocent, or did he include a fellow Wolf in that list?

Originally Posted by TGWBS on Day 3

The two others I'm closely watching at the moment are wayne and Gil. Of these two, I find Gil most worrying ... But Gil's vote - that's incriminating! It can't really be construed as anything but a capitalisation on wayne's self-vote.

It would be dangerous for a Wolf to cast suspicion, and so strongly, on Gil-Galad if he was a fellow Wolf. This would suggest to me that Gil is not a fellow Wolf.

Originally Posted by TGWBS, also on Day 3

For myself, I see the werewolves as mormegil, Glirdan, and either Garin or a quiet villager such as wayne, Gil or Marco.

Same comment applies. And this also speaks in Garin's favour, given that Garin has generally been under a lot of suspicion. It is possible, however, that TGWBS chose to include one fellow Wolf on that list in an attempt to clear them should he be lynched.

Glirdan
OK, I'll be frank, here. I think that Glirdan is the Hunter. Remember that the Ranger and the Hunter knew who each other were and could communiate during the day? Of all the villagers still alive, Cailin's posts point most towards Glirdan being the Hunter. She defended him quite strongly. Spawn voiced strong suspicion of Cailin and Garin voted for her, so it cannot be either of those two.

Kath
TGWBS made the point yesterday that Kath's votes have been among some of the least suspicious.

Originally Posted by TGWBS on Day 2

Finally, Kath's vote for Abercrombie. Not wolvish at all. Just look at the numbers involved when she voted - it was an incriminating, non-wolf thing to do

Originally Posted by TGWBS on Day 3

I think I will mention Kath. After Day 1, I believed in her innocence due to her voting for Abercrombie last. Yesterday, she was the only one to vote for Valier. Unless she's being incredibly bold, I don't think she's a wolf. Why kill somebody you voted for in the Day?

I agreed with what he said about Kath's votes, although the reason that she gave for voting for Abercrombie (following spawn) still seems strange. However, TGWBS's fairly strong defence of Kath gives me reason to worry about her.

Also, one other point to note about Kath, from reviewing her contributions, is that she seems to work by looking at the ideas that others have put forward and basing her own contributions on that - agreeing or disagreeing with others' ideas, rather than putting forward her own. Possibly, a good way for a Wolf to hide.

As has been noted, she has voted the same way as TGWBS on every day, except Day 3 when TGWBS voted for a fellow Wolf. That is incriminating on the face of it, but would two Wolves vote so consistently for the same villagers?

Garin
I really do not think Garin to be a Wolf. If he is, he has been playing very boldly. Just look at this:

Garin voted for Valier on Day 1. Valier voted for him on Day 2. Valier dies on Night 3 and is shown to be innocent.

Garin voted for Shelob on Day 2, to save himself. Shelob is lynched and shown to be innocent.

Cailin strongly suspected Garin and voted for him on Day 2.

Originally Posted by Cailin on Day 2

Now Garin does look suspicious in my eyes. He mostly just agrees with Saucy and Morm, which is always clever because they are likely people to bring up a case against you.

He voted for Cailin on Day 3. Cailin was forced to reveal herself as the Ranger and died on Night 4.

Marcolie Lamen strongly suspected Garin on Day 4, but did not vote. Garin voted for Marcolie Lamen on Day 4.

Originally Posted by Marcolie Lamen on Day 3

It makes sense to me for Naria and Garin to be working together, at opposite ends of the spetrum, and then someone else in between.

Originally Posted by Garin on Day 3

In fact, I found the post to be wolvish enough and I have too much work to do that I will vote now:
++Márcolië Lamen

Marcolie Lamen dies on Night 5 and is shown to be innocent.

Garin has some kind of involvement with the death of most of the innocents who have died. Would a Wolf be so foolish as to allow this to happen? Possibly, but it is extremely risky behaviour for a Wolf. The fact that Marcolie died last night tends to suggest to me that it was yet another attmept to frame him and that he is in fact innocent.

Dancing spawn
She has voted for a known innocent on every day and that three of those she has voted for ended up being lynched on the day she voted for them. However, since three of my four votes have been for known innocents, I cannot accuse her on that basis alone. I can find very little else that incriminates her, although that fact in itself is worrying.

On Day 2, however, she did stoke up the suspicion of Shelob and Cailin:

Originally Posted by Dancing spawn on Day 2

Somehow I'm now starting to feel more uneasy about Shelob and Cailín. I'll go looking back at their posts now and tell if I find something.

I will not deny that dancing spawn's suspicions of these two influenced my own thoughts about them. She is a sensible and analytical villager, and so I respect her views. When they match my own thoughts, then they reinforce them. That makes her dangerous in my eyes.

TGWBS's comments are interesting, as far as spawn is concerned:

Originally Posted by TGWBS on Day 2

Spawn was the next to vote. I'm not sure what to make of her. This was when Valier also had three votes, again tying. Without knowing Valier's identity, we can't infer anything.

This might be seen as an attempt to tie dancing spawn's innocence to that of Valier (as spawn's vote tied Abercrombie with Valier). Valier was later killed by the Wolves and shown to be innocent.

Originally Posted by TGWBS, also on Day 2

So, I must say, I feel that all those voting for Abercrombie were innocent. This is not only because I was in the group - it seemed like a rational thing to do, at the time, and while I regret her innocence, I believed it to be logical.

By declaring those who voted for Abercrombie to be innocent, he is attempting to clear himself. But is he also attempting to clear either Kath or spawn? It would be a logical thing to do if two Wolves had ended up getting themselves caught in the Abercrombie bandwaggon.

Originally Posted by TGWBS on Day 3

Interestingly, spawn, SpM, Kath and Garin have all voted for innocents twice. I'm not sure how telling this is, as I'm inclined to suspect none of the above, really. Perhaps I shall have to look into all of them individually. I went through Valier's posts, and she doesn't really mention anybody but Garin. As Cailin says, this makes him look bad, but it could easily be a bluff, or double bluff.

Again, a possible attempt to clear either spawn or Kath - and he also mentions Garin.

To conclude, I would prefer not to include in any double-lynching Gil-Galad, Garin or Glirdan (the 'three Gs' that everyone else seems so suspicious of).

That leaves Kath or spawn ...

Edit: Cross-posted with Glirdan, morm and spawn, whose comments I shall address shortly.

[malkatoj]

To answer SpM's question, yes I have dreamt of all those people, and no I have not dreamt of the hunter.

Thanks TGWBS for confirming my Seerdom, you horrible furry wolf.

[mormegil]

Malka, out of curiousity which order were the dreamt?

[Garin]

SpM says: It would be dangerous for a Wolf to cast suspicion, and so strongly, on Gil-Galad if he was a fellow Wolf. This would suggest to me that Gil is not a fellow Wolf.

Keep in mind that TGWBS actually voted for Naria so if he is a wolf, he is indeed bold.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

I was just doing my own search of TGWBS' quotes of other players, but Sauce has already said much of what I was about to say. Here are my conclusions of TGWBS' posts.

I'm not suspicious of Glirdan at all, actually. TGWBS is casting way too much suspicion on Glirdan on page 4, and then there's this:

Originally Posted by TGWBS

At the moment, I am most in favour of lynching Glirdan. He gives no reasoning for his lack of logic, and very little rational reasoning for casting suspicion on SpM, his odd feelings notwithstanding, of course.

The two others I'm closely watching at the moment are wayne and Gil. Of these two, I find Gil most worrying.

I'm not too worried of Gil either on the basis of TGWBS' sayings (see Sauce's post #327). I'm not sure whether these quotes would point Gil being innocent or quilty, though:

Originally Posted by TGWBS #53

I'm thinking he [Gil] could be our cobbler, as are many others. So, while he is high on my list of potential enemies to the village, I am reluctant to lynch him.

Originally Posted by #147

Did not vote Gil Galad, Glirdan, Marcolie Lamen, wayne, Naria
...
I, for one, would be more than pleased to kill them off if they don't start talking.

Originally Posted by #152

I am confident that a wolf, perhaps two, abides amongst those who are silent or quiet: Gil-Galad, Marcolie, Glirdan, Form, Wayne and Naria

Would TGWBS be so bold as to campaign for lynching the quiet ones if there were two wolves on the list (Naria + Gil)?

It's actually Kath of whom I'm most worried about now. I was really suspicious of her earlier (see my post #105) and maybe that's why I find things TGWBS has said about her more unnerving than the things he had said of others, but anyway...

First of all, there were the things Sauce already mentioned. In addition, I found this:

Originally Posted by TGWBS #152

Unless she's [Kath] being incredibly bold, I don't think she's a wolf.

Besides, I haven't seen Kath answering my question if she cross-posted her vote for Abercrombie with Aiwendil although I asked it twice.

Edit: Cross-posting with those after post #329.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Glirdan

Now, I know this is going to be both a very stupid and incriminating questions but I have to ask it. Why do we ABSOLUTELY want the Hunter to reveal him/herself? Yes it would have another innocent narrowed down, but by the sounds of it, TGWBS and the other Wolf already know who it is.

Actually, it's not incriminating. It reinforces my view that you are the Hunter. Assuming you are, sorry for "outing" you, but I felt it necessary.

I tend to agree that the Wolves have a good idea who the Hunter is. Given that, is it not better that the innocents have that knowledge too? Since malkatoj has not dreamed of them, the Hunter becomes another known innocent (and someone who is definately not a Cobbler), narrowing down our list of suspects for the last Wolf.

Originally Posted by Glirdan

If the Hunter reveals him/herself, then that gives the last Wolf more incentive to go after the Hunter after tomorrow Night and possibly take down another Wolf with him/her.

The Hunter is in no danger tonight, since the Seer will be his or her target. That gives us a ratio of five known innocents to four unknowns tomorrow (since a double lynch now looks out of the question). The last Wolf would be foolish to target the Hunter the following night, because there is a one in three chance that the Hunter will kill them. And, if the Hunter were to target the wrong person, then that would leave us with four known innocents to two unknowns and almost certain victory (provided that we could avoid the Cobbler's machinations).

All in all, I think that it is best if the Hunter declares, if not now then certainly tomorrow.

Originally Posted by mormegil

On second thought I don't think the double lynching is the greatest idea and we should probably wait until the situation is a bit more desperate.

Well, it's probably out of the question with your vote. But why don't you think it a good idea?

Originally Posted by mormegil

I still claim Formendacil is the cobbler and that he should be lynched tomorrow if we don't know who the wolf is.

Eh? Kill someone that we know is not a Wolf, even though he may be the Cobbler, rather than kill someone who may actually turn out to be a Wolf? What kind of madness is this? Are you the Cobbler, perchance?

Originally Posted by malkatoj

To answer SpM's question, yes I have dreamt of all those people, and no I have not dreamt of the hunter.

Thanks, malka. That helps a lot.