Tol-in-Gaurhoth XVII: The Saga Continues to Continue quite Continuously

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

As promised, I did some research of the quieter ones, and came up with analysis of Naria and malkatoj (although the latter has been pretty vocal).


Day 1:

Naria weeps the loss of Meneltarmacil and says that the Day 1 is rather random, and that's about all we get out of her. She promises to make a post later with a vote, though. Indeed, at the end of the Day we get 21 words forming an apology for lateness and a vote for Nilp (and it's a reasoned vote, too: "Too crazzzy!!").

Day 2:

*silence*

Day 3:

Naria says she had a perfectly good excuse for not posting. Fair enough. She also says that she was fairly quiet in her last game, three posts a day at tops (I'm not sure why she's telling this... does it mean that once you are a silent villager, you'll always be a silent villager?)

"I will not analyse anyone for there is enough people doing a good enough job already." ~Naria

Apparently it wasn't good enough since we haven't caught a wolf yet. In any case, that's a really weird thing to say. Did she know that we were way off of the real culprits and she thought she'd sit back watching us 'barking up the wrong tree' as we were already doing it so well? Why does she refuse to share her thoughts?

"I will however post a personal thought about each player later on." ~Naria

I'm still waiting for that post to come.

Naria thinks the idea of a double lynching sounds wolvish. She says that if a double lynching happens, then it happens but it shouldn't be planned. I disagree with this. I think accidental double lynchings don't really serve the purpose. A wolf can hide behind an "accident" and if we decrease our numbers twice the amount as usually in one Day, it should be discussed together.

Naria explains why she's quiet. She says she trusts her gut feelings since she's not good at reading between the lines. Her post #206, doesn't look that suspicious to me although I'm not sure when she said that "I do think that he [Formendacil] is acting Cobblerish and I would like to think that someone would agree with me on this."

She has just said that she wants to keep her own mind about voting, but the she wishes to get some support. I don't know... All in all Naria seems quite suspicious to me now and I'd really like her to post more her thoughts even if they are gut feelings.

***

Day 1:

Malkatoj is eager to get rid of Wayne and Gil.

"I think our best bet today would be to lynch either Gil or Wayne. Though we can't know if they're wolves, they are distracting and it'd be better to have them out of the way before we get to a point where there's real evidence." ~malkatoj

The next thing she says is that she's almost sure that Wayne is just being Wayne, though. Later she votes for Wayne for the reasons she explained earlier.

Day 2:

"I'm also inclined to think, like Wayne and Gil, it's just Garin being Garin--in the last game he acted in this manner as well." ~malkatoj

She suggests the good old 'wolves are in the bandwagon' theory although points out Shelob's safe vote (why only Shelob?). She says she meant Kath with her vote for Aiwendil and although some people would seem to think her as innocent after this, I'm not so sure.

Day 3:

Malkatoj is irritated because Wayne is still alive (although she has said all the time that he's probably innocent). She says that Sauce started both Shelob and Abercrombie bandwagons.

"Even if you don't vote for him [Sauce], don't vote with him--innocent or no, it's dangerous to let one person have so much power over us." ~malkatoj

Wow. That's quite a statement: Do not listen to The Saucepan Man. Nice piece of propaganda there. Malkatoj wants both Sauce and Wayne dead, but is uncertain, what to do. Asks a public opinion of double lynching and says she'd like to have it.

She votes for Sauce "for getting us to kill our innocent friends twice in a row".



Now, both ladies are looking rather suspicious to me and so do their votes. It's probably a safest vote ever to cast it for someone who already has votes, but who's not going to get lynched that Day.

On Day 1, malkatoj voted for Wayne giving him a third vote when Valier already had three and Abercrombie had 5. Naria, for one, gave Nilp a third vote just at the end of the Day.

I think I will probably vote for either of them toDay.

[Garin]

I'm glad to see the Downs is no longer a porn link. I have previously fretted about posting at work and yesterday I thought I was doomed when it appeared the subject matter had changed from middle earth to doggy-style.
Back into character: I regret not posting last night, I truly appreciate all that have looked at the silent ones, I also agree that one of them should die. It is, however, interesting that Márcolië Lamen has attempted to recover from her silence and finally started to participate. Her points about Naria, sort of make sense but It really could apply to all of the silent ones. It is obviously an attempt to save herself. It is my initial desire to dismiss what she says since she has missed a vote or two.
However, I thought I would vote for Gil following yesterday's debacle. I don't know.. points about Malkatoj make sense.
I wasn't able to get to our village last night and now I am preoccupied with truffle hunting, it is much like digging for gold... very random, and tiresome. My posts will be few but I will vote and put myself on the record unlike others.

[Garin]

Poor Cailin, she saved the seer another night, and did her job. It really is too bad that she had to give herself away

This comment seems makes me way suspicious and seems a bit egregious, almost like begging to be thought innocent.

[Garin]

In fact, I found the post to be wolvish enough and I have too much work to do that I will vote now:
++Márcolië Lamen

[The Saucepan Man]

Professional obligations discharged, I am back.

Reviewing today's discussions, I thought that I ought to answer this because it is an interesting point:

Originally Posted by Glirdan

I'm very surprised that [SpM]'s not been lynched yet. This could mean a one of two things. One, he's a Wolf. Two, he's been suspicious of a Wolf and it's to dangerous to attack him because it will lead to many clues.

I can see other plausible reasons why I have not been mauled by the Wolves yet. Night 2, they selected Aiwendil. We discussed the possible reasons for this on Day 2, but I think that it was a logical choice. His death left scant trail and he has a formidable intellect and an aptitude for analysis. Perhaps, were he still here, we would have made better choices. I still think that their choice of Valier on Night 3 was strange. But I can see why they did not go for me. After my votes on the previous days, they (correctly) assumed that I would be under suspicion and a potential lynch victim. Their choice on Night 4 was an obvious one. Moreover, be leaving me alone, they ensure that the very fact of my continued presence arouses suspicion, particularly given my voting record. After all, you have stated that this is one of your reasons for suspecting me, Glirdan.

... we probably want to vote for one more person, and then see if we can between 4 people get a wolf to finally come out of voting.

I agree with this. It remains sensible to keep the voting options wide, as it may force the Wolves' hand. For that reason (and also because there is a chance that I might not get back later), I shall vote now. And I shall vote for:

++NARIA

Basically for the reasons that I stated earlier. Nothing that I have seen so far alters my view on her. She has been laying low and placing "safe" votes, a sensible tactic for a Wolf in light of the way the voting has gone so far. Also, a few of the things said today (particularly by spawn) have reinforced my suspicions. Her lack of presence today might be viewed as overly risky behaviour for a Wolf, but (if she is a Wolf) it seems to have worked for her so far.

Of course, now that I have voted for her, she will probably turn out to be innocent - given my track record so far.

Edit: Cross-posted with Garin.

[Naria]

I'm here!! Luck just isn't on my side. I was on earlier and was doing up my post when the power went out. We had a wicked snow storm earlier this morning and it knocked some lines down.

I really do hope that nothing else happens. I would like to participate more.

Well here's my gut feelings:

Morm--unsure of right now

Garin-- not too many thoughts right now just that he seems to be quite agreeable this game, maybe a new way of playing?

Nilp--starting to make sense. kinda

Spawn--unsure of right now

SPM--hard to read, just like his posts. Can't put my finger on

Malka--haven't put too much thought into her yet, which is probably not a good thing

Gil--has made me uneasy since the quick vote after Wayne

Glirdan--confused about, something isn't sitting right

Marcolie--unsure of right now

Form--have stated my thoughts of him

Kath--same as Malka

TGWBS--leary of

[Garin]

Real quick, re: Mormegil, I like him but don't trust him, as much as it pains me. (I had a little time to read his posts, and had an uncomfortable feeling.)
I have, however, already, posted a vote.
I still think Marc is simply reacting to a call for the deaths to the silent and trying to avoid a lynch.
I have voted and feel secure in my vote.

[the guy who be short]

First off, I will probably be voting mormegil. But first, I want to deliver the promised analyses and see if anything sways my mind. Indeed, Naria's silence, along with many others, has not left the back of mind for some time. Nor has Gil's vote for wayne. But a personal analysis is always the best analysis, and I want to find out exactly why these people are being killed today.

All this is coming. Firstly, I wish to post my suspicions of mormegil and lay them open to the entire village.



This post constitutes my first attack on morm. Here follow the main points:

Originally Posted by TGWBS

Good reasoning. And here we seen morm's knee-jerk reaction, without even the pretence of an explanation.

Originally Posted by morm

Cailin is seeming to be the most wolfish to me currently and I don't have much time to explain but she's wise and cunning beyond her years and I think she's attempting to steer us to her thoughts and I find this unsettling at this stage

I have repeatedly mentioned the fact that he gave no real reasons for suspecting her. He either says "Something isn't sitting right" or "I don't have time to explain" or some such thing, and when asked plainly, refuses to answer. So, morm: Why did you vote Cailin?

I pointed out that Cailin's comment that allegedly influenced the lynching of Shelob...

Shelob's vote for Garin stands out and so does Glirdan’s vote for SpM, but not in a way that makes me immediately think them wolvish.

...is something that all villagers say, with variations, all the time. To single this out and base an entire attack on this seem illogical.

Originally Posted by morm

What I found from Cailin's post is that up to that point you had been vocal and yet contributed little.

Cailin did not explicitly state so. Morm implies that Cailin stated it. Furthermore, he seems unable to appreciate that Cailin posted a synopsis of what I had said - she did not present my analyses, but their conclusions. One sees quality thinking from me here, for example. Though other posts do not offer detailed analysis, they ask sensible questions.

He votes for Cailin when she has said explicitly that she will not be able to return, and so cannot form a defence.

Originally Posted by morm

Regarding Cailin I think I've put my finger on it. She's come forward with some decent ideas and seems to slowly be pulling here and pushing there. Slowly and quietly she is trying to influence us. Not as overtly as many think SpM is but more dangerously. She hasn't really committed herself to any one thing but seems to want to influence us and sow the seeds of confusion.

Proof? Analysis? Anything? Just general feelings. The entire point of being an innocent, by the way, is to influence discussion.

Originally Posted by morm

I think I shall stick with Cailin today. My observation earlier has solidified in my mind and I can see now her wolfish influence taking root in our councils.

Observation? A bit of a scientific word to use, considering the evidence you present.

My suspicions of Cailin I have posted and stand behind them. She's had a fairly innocuous track record on voting and what she says is moderately insightful but noncommittal.

Suspicions not backed by quotation or any evidence. And it seems a little extreme voting for somebody simply because they balancedly analyse everything everybody says.

Me subtle? Perish the thought. Show me where I have been subtle. It's not a trait I possess. And as far as my responses to your queries go, I thought I'd addressed this multiple times, but it appears as you are being intentionally obtuse and don't want to understand, which is odd because I believe you innocent and this seems wolfish behavior to me. Let me clarify that I do not think you a wolf but I don't understand your seemingly intentional desire to misunderstand everything I say.

Perhaps subtle was not the best word to use. You simply influenced the village, whether they realised it or not, because you're loud and generally trusted to analyse soundly. Yet look at the unanswered questions above; clearly you have not addressed them several times as I keep pursuing the subject.

In conclusion, I quote myself:

Originally Posted by TGWBS

And that is what your entire argument against Cailin comes down to! Through the last two days, all you can state is a bad feeling, and dress it up with minor attacks that could be applied to anybody!

[mormegil]

TGWBS, I don't know what to say to you other than that which I have already said. You do seem to be taking out of context a couple of things. I did not begin to attack Cailin on the first day I did mention that something wasn't sitting right with me. The second day I noted why and stated it to everyone and commenced my attack. My suspicion continued because of her general behavior. Since we are talking about so many past games anyway I will. I might mention that I found Holby to be a wolf in one game based exactly on that logic. I felt something was wrong and found some points where I thought she was. Cailin's behavior was similar to hers I was obviously wrong this time but it has worked for me in the past.

About the comment that I didn't have time to explain, that's simply because I didn't and I haven't had a great amount of time to look up quotes and do an extremely detailed analysis, but at least I am trying to contribute. My RL job is keeping me later and I've been extremely busy and usually can only post during lunch now.

It is note worthy that others thought along the same lines as I and yet for some reason you mention them not.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Originally Posted by Garin

I regret not posting last night, I truly appreciate all that have looked at the silent ones, I also agree that one of them should die. It is, however, interesting that Márcolië Lamen has attempted to recover from her silence and finally started to participate. Her points about Naria, sort of make sense but It really could apply to all of the silent ones. It is obviously an attempt to save herself. It is my initial desire to dismiss what she says since she has missed a vote or two.

Well, I was about to point out this suggestion by Márcolië: "Maybe we need to start voting for those being quiet, to see if people are trying to hide behind silence", but rather as a joke than a real accusation. It does seem quite convenient for Márcolië to start posting more and being helpful just when she says that we should go after the silent ones, but to me it doesn't appear quite as obviously wolvish as to you. After all, I would have expected her to talk more from the beginning. If she was quiet at first because she was adjusting herself to her new furrier life, that I don't know. However, I believe her when she said that she was caught up in business involving a flying spaghetti monster (or broken computer, whichever you please).

Originally Posted by Márcolië

If I had to guess wolves now from this I'd guess.
quiet: Naria mainly for lack of voting for a known innocent
loud: Garin mainly for repeated breaking of ties 'causing known innocents deaths.

Márcolië, your accusation of Garin isn't very logical:

Originally Posted by Nilp :)

That might be so, but I notice that aside from the vote where he had to save himself, he voted for someone that didn't end up getting lynched.

Originally Posted by Garin

This comment seems makes me way suspicious and seems a bit egregious, almost like begging to be thought innocent.

I've never trusted those who lament the dead too much, but aren't you overreacting a bit? Funny you go after Márcolië just after she has named you as one of her main suspects. Might be a coincidence, though, I don't know. Now that I've said that, it's of course obvious that Márcolië is a wolf and Naria and malkatoj are as pure and innocent as the wind driven snow...

Anyway, if we are trying to rid ourselves of the silent ones, why to kill someone who has just started talking?

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Garin

I'm glad to see the Downs is no longer a porn link. I have previously fretted about posting at work and yesterday I thought I was doomed when it appeared the subject matter had changed from middle earth to doggy-style.

Aye! What was up with that?

Anyway, it's resolved, so on to the serious matters at hand, in which I shall probably and purposefully irritate some the great minds of the 'Downs.

Originally Posted by Marcolie

Form To me it still seems like Form's the cobbler. She declares that's the one thing she's not, but is it not a cobbler who would try to confuse? I'd let Form live, at least for now, but not trust anything said...if there's anything we can analyse.

I guess I should start signing my posts with my real name again... Don't want to turn into a she by accident.

Yes, don't trust anything I say. But really, don't trust anything that ANYBODY says. No seer has come forward to reveal us any known innocents, so NOBODY is in the clear, meaning that EVERYBODY is suspect, and their words should be taken with great caution, and their statements should only be believed when verifiable.

Trust no one!

On other matters, I'm disappointed by Morm's vote for me, but hardly surprised at all. Certainly, I'm not insulted. After all, since I'm no good at reading the fine print on pages of Werewolf, I am a very poor in-depth analysier of posts, hence I tend to base my playing on what FEELS right, and on what I've experienced of other players in the past. And, since I'm playing quite differently than Morm is normally used to, I would be a hypocrite indeed if I didn't find him justified in voting for me.

Still disappointed though...

And, speaking of Morm, I find today's higher levels of Morm suspicion to be most interesting. I'm going to toss in my thoughts on the matter...

Quite frankly, Morm SEEMS normal to me on face value. However, there are definitely differences in his normal mode of playing, differences that I find significant.

First of all, Morm is not as verbose as normal. This isn't necessarily incriminating, but it is interesting. Perhaps he's busier than he used to be. I know I am. Perhaps, however, he's a Werewolf trying for a lower profile than he usually has.

Secondly, I'm waiting for him to come up with some big, everybody-analyse-the-next-person-on-the-list sort of thing, or maybe him to put forward a list of generally known innocents, and try to orchestrate a fixed lynch. Maybe he's learning from experience, or maybe he's taken my past berations to heart, or maybe he doesn't have time... or maybe he's a Werewolf... but this seems very un-Mormish to me.

Well, that's enough for now. I'll be back later to vote.

Or not.

[Garin]

Anyway, if we are trying to rid ourselves of the silent ones, why to kill someone who has just started talking?

A certain atmosphere of desperation seems to ring in Marc's post.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

I have to vote now. Hmph.

The votes thus far are:

Kath -> mormegil
Nilp -> Gil
Glirdan -> Gil
mormegil -> Formendacil
Garin -> Márcolië
Sauce -> Naria
Naria -> Formendacil

Score: Formendacil-2, Gil-2, Márcolië-1, mormegil-1, Naria-1


If morm is a wolf, why didn't he put Gil clearly on the lead to save himself? Or maybe he has his comrades waiting if he needs to be saved because it could have looked overly defensive to vote for Gil in his position.

What should I do then? Make a tie, perhaps, for tradition's sake?
TGWBS presents a sound case, but I feel hesitant to vote for morm because I haven't analysed his posts myself yet. Although maybe that's just why I should vote for him, really.

Ah, well.

++malkatoj

May we have some luck at last.


edit: Cross-posted with TGWBS and Garin, if someone's interested to know.

[the guy who be short]

Originally Posted by morm

TGWBS, I don't know what to say to you other than that which I have already said. You do seem to be taking out of context a couple of things. I did not begin to attack Cailin on the first day I did mention that something wasn't sitting right with me. The second day I noted why and stated it to everyone and commenced my attack. My suspicion continued because of her general behavior.

Yet you don't take into account that your entire suspicion - that she was "influencing us" - was based on comments that everybody makes all the time, and that the point of being innocent IS to influence others and get them to believe you! Can you adress these points?

About the comment that I didn't have time to explain, that's simply because I didn't

And you have as yet failed to explain other than your "feelings." I don't like people who vote with their guts - Naria and Formen, be warned.

It is note worthy that others thought along the same lines as I and yet for some reason you mention them not.

You were the first to cast suspicion on Cailin. After this, people started paying attention to her, because you had focussed the spotlight on her.

[The Saucepan Man]

I'm sorry, but I have to say this. To date, I have trusted you and seen the sense in much of what you have been saying, TGWBS. I saw the sense in your case against mormegil yesterday, even though I did not agree with it. It was clearly and logically stated. Yet your case against morm today seems to have transformed into something of a single-minded persecution of him, and it unnerves me.

I felt much the same way as mormegil yesterday about Cailin. That is why I voted for her, although I am not sure that I expressed my reasons with any more precision than morm did. I reached that view entirely independently, before I had seen what mormegil had to say about her (on Day 3 at least). Admittedly, his opinion on her seemed to validate my own, but we all draw comfort from the fact that others are thinking along the same lines as we are, do we not?

I am not saying that morm is innocent. But I do have the sense that he, like me, is one who has been trying his best to find a Wolf but making wrong choices at every turn. And that he has had less time than he is accustomed to to do so.

I appreciate that, if morm is lynched and turns out to be a Wolf, these words may well condemn me. But I am prepared to take that risk, for I have a feeling that he is innocent.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Guess who

Yet you don't take into account that your entire suspicion - that she was "influencing us" - was based on comments that everybody makes all the time, and that the point of being innocent IS to influence others and get them to believe you! Can you adress these points?

I thought I had stated that her behavior and I used the best logic I had at the time I'm sorry if didn't have sufficient evidence for you but I am doing my best and horrible at that. You continue to ask the same questions of me and I think I answer them sufficiently. So from this point forward I no longer will address your questions unless you give me something new.

[the guy who be short]

Originally Posted by SpM

Yet your case against morm today seems to have transformed into something of a single-minded persecution of him, and it unnerves me.

Apologies if it unnerves you, but I am certain that we have a wolf here. And whilst it is very definitely a persecution, I won't deny that, it is not singleminded. I wanted to vote for morm at the offset, but instead decided to analyse Naria, Marco and Gil before casting a vote. I have finished with the first two and in both cases found reason for suspicion. Gil I shall do as soon as I finish this reply. Indeed, a review was entirely necessary, considering that my secondary suspect beforehand had been Glirdan, and by the end of tomorrow, if I live, I intend to have covered as much of the village as possible.

That said, while I do suspect Naria, Marco and Formen, the focus of my day remains morm.

I felt much the same way as mormegil yesterday about Cailin. That is why I voted for her, although I am not sure that I expressed my reasons with any more precision than morm did. I reached that view entirely independently, before I had seen what mormegil had to say about her

A brave thing to admit to. I will confess, I saw your post claiming that you had reached your own conclusions about Cailin a few days ago, but dismissed it. I presumed that mormegil had influenced you, even if you yourself had not noticed this.

As to how that affects my beliefs... well, put simply, I saw no reason to suspect Cailin, and it surprises me that you, SpM, did. I don't think you are a wolf - much the opposite infact - but that seems odd. Perhaps I simply missed something with regards to her. But I still think morm is guilty.

I have a feeling that he is innocent.

How strong is that feeling?

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by TGWBS

How strong is that feeling?

I have no certainty, but it is fairly strong as he seems to be in much the same position as me and I can therefore identify with the way that he has behaved.

But you know where my conclusions have got me so far ...

If you feel that strongly yourself, vote for him. Depending on where the Wolves are, it might make for an interesting end to the day's voting.

I must go now.

[malkatoj]

I'd like to thank SpM for defending Morm. He (Mormegil) really doesn't seem wolfish, and I don't quite understand why you all think he does. If anyone would like to try to convince me of his wolfishness, feel free to try in the hour we have left. Also, SpM, that post lowered you on my 'suspicious' list, simply because I believe Morm to be innocent. Thought I'd let you know.

On the other hand--Naria. Oh, Naria. You were completely under my radar until this list:

Morm--unsure of right now
Garin-- not too many thoughts right now just that he seems to be quite agreeable this game, maybe a new way of playing?
Nilp--starting to make sense. kinda
Spawn--unsure of right now
SPM--hard to read, just like his posts. Can't put my finger on
Malka--haven't put too much thought into her yet, which is probably not a good thing
Gil--has made me uneasy since the quick vote after Wayne
Glirdan--confused about, something isn't sitting right
Marcolie--unsure of right now
Form--have stated my thoughts of him
Kath--same as Malka
TGWBS--leary of

Does anyone else feel like this is a million (okay...11) different ways of saying "I have no idea what this person is"? Basically, it looks like she's a wolf who can't find suspicion in anyone. It must be hard to suspect someone you know to be innocent, eh? That would make it awfully hard for a wolf to suspect an ordo. Really, this post has put you solidly on my 'to lynch' list.

TGWBS: I hate to repeat SpM, but that post accusing (continuing to accuse) Morm seems completely unreasonable, jumpy and randomly accusatory?

So, my list right now:

INNOCENT
Malkatoj

PROBABLY INNOCENT
Saucepan Man
Mormegil
Formendacil
Nilpaurion

UNKNOWN (or just under my radar, which is almost more suspicious)
Glirdan
Garin
Kath
Marcolie
Gil-Galad

WOLFISH
Dancing Spawn
Naria
TGWBS

With less than an hour left, I cast my vote for today for

++NARIA


Edit-note: Cross posted with Morm, SpM and TGWBS

[Formendacil]

Alas that there are not more hours in a day... but the time has come for me to vote... Confound pizza-making, and everything to do with it!

Now then, I'm tied for first... I'll admit that I don't like that. I'm innocent, after all, though expecting you to believe that seems to be a bit much...

So... how to save myself a wee bit...

Naria.

Sorry, about it, old girl, but I really don't want to be lynched, the village consensus seems to be that you're one o' the guilty ones. I'll admit that you're fairly suspicious, although past experience suggests that that's just your style.

But I'm selfish.

++ Naria

[the guy who be short]

Two people have come out in support of mormegil, which is interesting. I was almost tempted to change my vote by SpM's appeal, but both malkatoj's and mormegil's own posts have convinced me to stick to my guns.

++MORMEGIL