Tol-in-Gaurhoth XVII: The Saga Continues to Continue quite Continuously

[The Saucepan Man]

Ah, the irony of it. All those fine legal speeches at the outset counselling against the lynch mob mentality because it was most likely to end in the death of innocents and now I myself have the blood of three innocents on my hands.

I had no idea that Cailin was one of our Gifted villagers and I strongly doubt that the Wolves did either. As far as I can see, she sensibly left no clues as to her identity. I am truly sorry for my part in her death.

Ah well, we must press on with our endeavours to find the Wolves and perhaps avenge her and the others that have died. Though I hesitate to take up my own role in this once more, as I have made such poor choices so far and am wearied by it.

Here are yesterday's votes, for what they are worth:

1. Wayne for Wayne (Wayne-1)
2. Gil-Galad for Wayne (Wayne-2)
3. Malkatoj for SpM (Wayne-2, SpM-1)
4. Glirdan for SpM (Wayne-2, SpM-2)
5. Mormegil for Cailin (Wayne-2, SpM-2, Cailin-1)
6. Nilp for Cailin (Wayne-2, SpM-2, Cailin-2)
7. SpM for Cailin (Wayne-2, SpM-2, Cailin-3)
8. Naria for Formendacil (Wayne-2, SpM-2, Cailin-3, Formendacil-1)
9. TGWBS for mormegil (Wayne-2, SpM-2, Cailin-3, Formendacil-1, mormegil-1)
10. Dancing spawn for Wayne (Wayne-3, SpM-2, Cailin-3, Formendacil-1, mormegil-1)
11. Garin for Cailin (Wayne-3, SpM-2, Cailin-4, Formendacil-1, mormegil-1)
12. Kath for mormegil (Wayne-3, SpM-2, Cailin-4, Formendacil-1, mormegil-2)
13. Formendacil for Wayne (Wayne-4, SpM-2, Cailin-4, Formendacil-1, mormegil-2)
14. Cailin for Wayne (Wayne-5, SpM-2, Cailin-4, Formendacil-1, mormegil-2)
15. Marcolie for Wayne (Wayne-6, SpM-2, Cailin-4, Formendacil-1, mormegil-2)

I fear that they will tell us little. I have been carrying out some research into voting patterns overnight and will share my conclusions shortly, once I have collated them into something intelligible.

[The Saucepan Man]

You know, despite our best endeavours to spread the voting on Day 1, it is now looking very much (at least from my perspective) like not one vote was cast for a Wolf. And I suspect that the following Days were not much different. Let me explain how I have reached this conclusion.

On Day 1, of 17 votes cast, 14 were for people that we now know to be innocent. That's 82% of the votes on Day 1 for known innocents! The remaining three votes were cast for me and Nilp. Since I am fairly certain of Nilp's innocence, that means that, from where I am standing, not one Wolf was voted for on Day 1.

Day 2 was a bit better. Of 12 votes cast, 6 were for known innocent (50%), or seven from my perspective as one vote was cast for me.

On Day 3, we had a relapse. Of 15 votes cast, 10 were for known innocents (66.6%), or 12 (80%) from my perspective.

Overall, out of a total 44 votes cast over the three days, 30 have been for known innocents. That's 68%. For me, the figure rises to 34 (77%).

Considering that not all of the votes for those whose identity is not yet known will have been for Wolves, it is clear that we do not have a very good strike rate.

So, what does that tell us?

1. While voting patterns are normally of some help in finding Wolves, that is only the case when there are Wolves among those who are in the running and/or when we actually manage to find a Wolf. As matters stand, given our poor strike rate, the voting patterns are about as much use as a post by Formendacil. (That's unfair - he was actually rather constructive in the latter stages of yesterday. Although the comparison may not be so unfair, as there may be something we can learn from the voting patterns, as I hope to show.)

2. The number of innocents that a person has voted for is, in these circumstances, not a particularly useful guide for determining who might be a Wolf. Four of us have voted for three innocents (mormegil, dancing spawn, Garin and myself). I doubt that any more than one, at most, of these is a Wolf. Shelob, a known innocent, cast both of her votes for innocents. And Cailin, also a known innocent and our esteemed Ranger, cast two of her three votes for innocents. Two other villagers - Formendacil and Kath - have voted two out of three times for innocents. In fact, only two villagers have not voted for a known innocent - Glirdan and Naria. And I (although I alone) know that Glirdan has in fact voted for an innocent twice (with one "no vote").

3. In light of the way that the voting has gone, there has been little need, if any, for Wolves to vote to go out of their way to get an innocent lynched. We have done that for them.

I conclude from this that we should perhaps not be looking at those who have voted on a number of occasions for known innocents. In the circumstances of our past three days' voting, this would have been unnecessarily risky behaviour for the Wolves. It seems to me that they are much more likely to have been placing "safe" votes, since we have given them the opportunity to do just that.

I acknowledge that these musings might be seen as self-serving, given that I have voted for three different known innocents. But I hope that you will see that there may be some merit in them. And perhaps they might actually help us to bag a Wolf today.

More in a bit with my thoughts on individual villagers - for what they may be worth.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Interesting post, Sauce. I see we have been thinking about the same thing yesterday.

From the voting patterns of DAY 1 and 2--this was before I saw the results of DAY 3--there were two groups of two people that leapt to me. Yes, they really did.

Note this (known innocents in underline):

DAY 1
1. Formendacil for Valier (Valier-1)
2. WaynetheGoblin for Formendacil (Valier-1; Formendacil-1)
3. Nilpaurion for Nilpaurion (Valier-1; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-1)
4. Valier for WaynetheGoblin (Valier-1; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-1, Wayne-1)
5. AbercrombieofRohan for Nilpaurion (Valier-1; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-1)
6. Cailin for WaynetheGoblin (Valier-1; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2)
7. Mormegil for Valier (Valier-2; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2)
8. Saucepan Man for AbercrombieofRohan (Valier-2; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2, Abercrombie-1)
9. TGWBS for AbercrombieofRohan (Valier-2; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2, Abercrombie-2)
10. Garin for Valier (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2, Abercrombie-2)
11. Spawn for Abercrombie (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2, Abercrombie-3)
12. Aiwendil for Abercrombie (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2, Abercrombie-4)
13. Kath for Abercrombie (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2, Abercrombie-5)
14. Shelob for Garin (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2, Abercrombie-5, Garin-1)
15. Malkatoj for WaynetheGoblin (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-3, Abercrombie-5, Garin-1)
16. Glirdan for SpM (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-3, Abercrombie-5, Garin-1, SpM-1)
17. Naria for Nilpaurion (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-3, Wayne-3, Abercrombie-5, Garin-1, SpM-1)

DAY 2
1. Nilpaurion for malkatoj (malkatoj -1)
2. Malkatoj for Kath (malkatoj -1, Kath -1)
3. Valier for Garin (malkatoj -1, Kath -1, Garin -1)
4. Mormegil for Cailin (malkatoj -1, Kath -1, Garin -1, Cailin -1)
5. SpM for Shelob (malkatoj -1, Kath -1, Garin -1, Cailin -1, Shelob -1)
6. TGWBS for Naria (malkatoj -1, Kath -1, Garin -1, Cailin -1, Shelob -1, Naria -1)
7. Spawn for Shelob (malkatoj -1, Kath -1, Garin -1, Cailin -1, Shelob -2, Naria -1)
8. Formendacil for SpM (malkatoj -1, Kath -1, Garin -1, Cailin -1, Shelob -2, Naria -1, SpM -1)
9. Cailin for Garin (malkatoj -1, Kath -1, Garin -2, Cailin -1, Shelob -2, Naria -1, SpM -1)
10. Kath for Valier (malkatoj -1, Kath -1, Garin -2, Cailin -1, Shelob -2, Naria -1, SpM -1, Valier -1)
11. Shelob for Cailin (malkatoj -1, Kath -1, Garin -2, Cailin -2, Shelob -2, Naria -1, SpM -1, Valier -1)
12. Garin for Shelob (malkatoj -1, Kath -1, Garin -2, Cailin -2, Shelob -3, Naria -1, SpM -1, Valier -1)

Block A: Kath - Garin

DAY 1: Garin votes for Valier
Kath seals Abercrombie's fate.

DAY 2: Kath votes for Valier
Garin seals Shelob's fate.

NIGHT 3: Valier is killed by the Werewolves.

Block B: Glirdan - Formendacil

DAY 1: Form votes for Valier (well, this is irrelevant)
Glirdan votes for SpM

DAY 2: Form votes for SpM for 'controlling the game.'
Glirdan is silent.

DAY 3: The attack on Sauce commences. One of the loudmouths (in this case, Cailín) saw him 'controlling the game.' Glirdan votes for SpM. The attempt fails, and blame is shifted to the loudmouth who 'orchestrated' the attack (i.e., Cailín), despite the fact that the attack has already started from DAY 2.

Block B is still unconvincing for me. Hmmm, but does mormegil's attack on Cailín fit the second scenario? . . . No, his attack on her began even before she pointed at Sauce.

Okay, I'll be back in a few hours for more thoughts and a vote.

Don't change the channel!

[The Saucepan Man]

As much as Cailin's redoubtable intelligence concerned me when I feared her to be a Wolf, I trust it in one that I now know to have been innocent. Armed with the knowledge of her innocence, I respect her judgement.

Originally Posted by Cailin yesterday

Innocents:

Nilp
TGWBS
Glirdan
Kath
Saucepan Man (?)

Setting myself aside (as it is for you to decide whether you trust me), I am inclined to view each of these villagers favourably for the time being, both on the basis that Cailin trusted them and on the basis of my own instincts (although they have not exactly served me well so far ).

I have been fairly convinced of Nilp's innocence for most of the game. I still am. I may be wrong but, if I am, I shall never quiz with him again ( ).

TGWBS has, after a slow start, talked little but good sense. I agree with almost everything that he has said. His conclusions on mormegil are perhaps an exception, but I can certainly see how he got there. If he is a Wolf, he is playing an exceedingly good (albeit fiendish) game.

My original suspicions of Glirdan lessened considerably yesterday. And, the more I think about it, the more his behaviour looks to me to be that of an innocent. I do not think that a Wolf would have pressed the case against me so strongly over the course of three Days, since he would immediately have been under suspcion were I to have been lynched. As I have said, there has been no need, given the way that the voting has gone, for the Wolves to have taken such risks. I know that this will not help others' conclusions about Glirdan, but it greatly assists me.

TGWBS made some good points in Kath's favour yesterday. Her votes, and particularly her Day 1 vote, look decidedly un-Wolfish to me in light of what we now know. Her early vote today is slightly unnerving, but I am willing to accept that there are good reasons for it. Moreover, whether mormegil is innocent or guilty, it is a foolish vote for a Wolf. It is quite possible, as matters stand, that he will be lynched today and, if that happens, a Wolfish Kath risks either losing a partner in crime, if he is guilty, or attracting immediate suspision, if he is innocent. So I do not think that Kath is a Wolf.

I continue to believe malkatoj innocent, mainly for the Aiwendil/Kath vote, but also because it would have been unnecessarily risky for a Wolf to vote for me at such an early stage yesterday (again, that helps only me).

I am still inclined to believe Formendacil when he says that he would have been paying much more attention to proceedings were he a Wolf. I do not discount the possibility that he is bluffing. But, again, there has been little need for the Wolves to take any risks thus far, and Formendacil's approach has been risky, if he is a Wolf. Currently, I don't think that he is.

Which brings me to a difficult trio: mormegil, dancing spawn and Garin. Their votes, on the face of it, would appear to incriminate them. Although no more than mine. I can hardly accuse them of being Wolves on the basis of their voting record, given my own poor record. And, as I have said, their votes look to me to be unnecessarily risky ones for Wolves to have cast. Thus far, I have been inclined to trust mormegil and dancing spawn because they have seemed to me to be talking good sense. The fact that dancing spawn has hardly been considered as a possible Wolf concerns me, but I am prepared to give both of them the benefit of the doubt for the time being. If they are innocent, they are worth having around. Garin I have been less sure about and I will keep an eye on him, but I don't have any specific reason for suspecting him at present. I do, however, have a concern that there may be one bold Wolf (two at a stretch) amongst this trio.

So that leaves me with Gil-Galad, Naria and Marcolie Lamen.

Gil-Galad I have no idea about. Like Wayne, he can look suspicious when he is not. His stated reason for voting for Wayne yesterday (that he may have been a Wolf "pulling a Nilp") seems reasonable to me. And his behaviour to date has been much as I would expect from him. So, difficult to say.

Marcolie Lamen, I have no handle on. Her two "no votes" might be regarded as suspicious, and therefore unduly risky for a Wolf, but she has given reasons why she was not able to vote and they apply whether she is innocent or guilty. And it is difficult to draw any conclusions from her vote yesterday, as it was rather forced on her by circumstances. It is fair to say, however, that her voting record has attracted little attention to her so far.

My main suspicion at the moment, therefore, is directed towards Naria. Other than Glirdan (who has voted twice for me), she is the only one of us to have cast no vote for a known innocent. Which, on the basis of the theory which I outlined earlier, makes her very suspicous in my eyes. As has been noted on a number of occasions, her vote for Nilp right at the end of Day 1 was a very safe vote for a Wolf to make. She did not vote on Day 2. And her Day 3 vote for Formendacil, while it carried with it the possibility of getting him lynched, was actually very unlikely to do so in light of the way that the day was going. I do not discount the possibility that it was a Wolf on Wolf vote.

So, to summarise (and excluding myself):

Probably innocent
Nilpaurion Felagund
TGWBS
Kath
Glirdan

Prepared to continue to give the benefit of the doubt
Formendacil
mormegil
dancing spawn
Garin

No idea
Gil-Galad
Marcolie Lamen

Probably a Wolf
Naria

Note that I think it unlikely that our Wolfish trio comprises Gil-Galad, Marcolie Lamen and Naria, so there is at least one Wolf, possibly two, elsewhere on my list. Probably among the four that I am currently giving the benefit of the doubt to - problem is, I have no idea which.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

I have been fairly convinced of Nilp's innocence for most of the game. I still am. I may be wrong but, if I am, I shall never quiz with him again ( ). (SpM)

You won't take a pointed object, paradrop to the Philippines, and stab me repeatedly? Awww . . .

The way I see it, we have a crisis (duh), and everyone is reverting to type.

Sauce is like a lawyer presenting a case everyday to a jury. Unfortunately, the jury thinks he's not been doing good, so it almost decided to kill him.

spawn . . . well, if I were to enumerate her positive traits, the Downs might collapse on itself and become an internet blackhole. So . . . she consistently makes good sense, to me at least.

Garin is Garin. See previous game, and his junior game.

daga'y is quite fond of me, like in the previous game. Why? What do you see in me?

mormegil is scary. Always has been for me, 'cept when we were Shirriffs.

Kath is confusing.

Glirdan, too.

Gil-galad . . . no comment.

Naria makes some sense, but posts very little to go on. See previous game.

Marco . . . well, haven't played with her yet. Sorry.

Wait, but what about Formendaga? He's acting weird . . . and don't tell me you're not playing a smart Cobbler or Werewolf. It takes smart people to act stupid. I know. I'm too stupid to act stupid.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Nilp

You won't take a pointed object, paradrop to the Philippines, and stab me repeatedly?

Repeated stabbing would be to good for you. On further consideration, perhaps I should just bar you from the Quiz/Quotes Rooms altogether if you turn out to be a Wolf ...

Originally Posted by Nilp

The way I see it, we have a crisis (duh), and everyone is reverting to type.

Indeed. Your own post bears you out on this.

Interesting thoughts, Nilp. I shall muse them over.

Originally Posted by Nilp

DAY 3: The attack on Sauce commences. One of the loudmouths (in this case, Cailín) saw him 'controlling the game.' Glirdan votes for SpM. The attempt fails, and blame is shifted to the loudmouth who 'orchestrated' the attack (i.e., Cailín), despite the fact that the attack has already started from DAY 2.

The way I currently see it, the Wolves have not actually been doing much to attack innocents in any concerted way during the day. They have most likely left that to the innocents themselves (we have been unwittingly obliging in this regard) and concentrated on laying low.

You will all no doubt be relieved to hear that my legal duties (RL: job) will prevent me from participating much tomorrow. I will get a chance to look in during the afternoon and will certainly take into account all that has been said when I cast my vote.

If I were to vote now, it would be for Naria. But that could change, depending upon how today's dicsussions go.

[Glirdan]

This is not good, not good at all. Cailin the Ranger... Well, she definetly didn't come off as a Gifted. And now the village is definetly in trouble. All I have to say is that the Hunter should remain hidden as well (obviously) the Seer. We need to get these Wolves and fast.

Something is still not sitting right with me about SpM. I'm very surprised that he's not been lynched yet. This could mean a one of two things. One, he's a Wolf. Two, he's been suspicious of a Wolf and it's to dangerous to attack him because it will lead to many clues. In answer to SpM's question from yessterDay:

I wish you would explain this.

It is not about your Day 1 approach. I'm not quite sure what it is. I think it's mostly that fact that you are still alive toDay. I would have thought that thw Wolves would have been smart enough to attack yourself, morm and spawn early on and get you out of the way. But as I said above, that's only one of two possibilities and now, I'm sort of leaning towards the second option. However, that does not mean you're completely out of my suspicions.

It is way to quiet toDay and I must vote soon and I really don't have much to go on. So I might end up voting for SpM or Gil. His vote yesterDay was rather odd. Like he was really anxious to fet rid of another innocent. I'm actually leaning towards voting Gil right now. I will wait a little longer, but then I must vote.

[Glirdan]

Grrrr!!! I wish people would speak!! Now I have to vote and with not a whole lot to go on either!! I shall do as I said above.

++Gil

For reasons stated above.

I'm afraid that I won't be back at all toDay. I wish you the best of luck my friends. May we finally find one of those fiends and lynch him/her properly!!

~Glirdy~

[mormegil]

Nilp, I know not what to say to you. You are analyzing more than I have ever seen before...are you a wolf?

Wait, but what about Formendaga? He's acting weird . . . and don't tell me you're not playing a smart Cobbler or Werewolf. It takes smart people to act stupid. I know. I'm too stupid to act stupid.

This is what I was trying to get at before but I didn't say it as Nilpy as Nilp said it.

SpM I like most of your thoughts and they seem to make some sense to me. Where I disagree is how many people you are willing to consider innocent. I for one have not and will not give Malka innocent status based on her vote for Aiwendil. We are far to willing to do this and I have warned against it adamantly but nobody seems to listen to this.

I do agree that TGWBS is innocent and most likely Nilp only because he seems to be very helpful, which is so odd that I don't know if he might be a wolf...this new behavior confuses me. Kath I'm thinking is innocent but I don't know if I'd put her in that category yet.

Looking over Kath's post (you know the long one) I found something that strikes me as odd. She doesn't like my reason for voting for Cailin and votes for me based on that, yet SpM and I seemed to think very similarly throughout the day and SpM used, in my opinion, similar logic as mine, however more well articulated. Yet Kath doesn't seem to suspect him, nor does she seem to suspect anybody else who voted Cailin. I'm not saying that Kath is guilty or that SpM, Nilp, Garin and any other that may have voted for her are guilty but I am saying that my track record does not make me guilty as it doesn't mean that the others are necissarily guilty. I was getting annoyed with TGWBS's requests because I found them repetative and frequent. I thought I had answered his queries, yet he asks again for the a response. I try to be subtle yet it doesn't work so I am forced to be more overt.