Tol-in-Gaurhoth XVII: The Saga Continues to Continue quite Continuously

[mormegil]

I feel horrible for the role I played in Cailin's death. I knew she was acting odd but I didn't think at all that it was because she was gifted. She seemed much more wolfish to me. I've been thinking for the last day and I really don't know where to go now. I'm feeling a bit of a lack of confidence in my abilities and really am unsure of who might be a wolf now.

The comment yesterday caught my attention from Formendacil that said something like 'wouldn't he be smarter than act the way he is if he were a wolf'. Given I think Formendacil a very intelligent person bu I just don't see that he wouldn't act that way if he were the wolf or cobbler. He thrives on bluffing. But again I hesitate to go after somebody due to the tantamount mistake I made.


Edit: Menel you still have Wayne and Cailin on the living list.

[Gil-Galad]

oh wow... we lost our first gifted... and wayne was just playing stupid... don't know why, just lost all hope... well maybe jsut don't listen to me anymore...

[malkatoj]

I'm about to head off to my dinner of awesomeness, so I don't really have time to make a detailed post, but I figured I'd drop in.

Cailin's death, tragedy as it may be, is hardly a surprise--as a known gifted, she would be first on anyone's list. However, this leaves us with absolutely no trail. Anyone (well, any wolf) would have killed her so we don't know who they are from it.

My suspect list right now consists of TGWBS and Spawn. SpM's moved down quite a bit as his defense was well-reasoned and not just a 'hey don't lynch me!' post. I'm also growing more suspicious of Gil-Galad, simply because his posts don't help anyone at all, though I still think it more likely that he's a cobbler trying to distract us.

I have absolutely no idea when I'll be back on, but I'll be looking carefully at certain people (and everyone, actually, but some people more than others) before I vote.

[Kath]

Ok I've waited about as long as I can. Since there have only been 3 posts I can't use anything said toDay to make my mind up. Therefore:

++MORMEGIL

For the same reasons as yesterday.

(I know this is shockingly early - check out the other thread for why.)

[the guy who be short]

I only have a few minutes at my disposal, little more than sufficient to highlight my basic points.

Firstly, I am still most suspicious of mormegil. I shall provide reasons later, but they're the same as yesterday; the subtle influencing of the village whilst accusing Cailin of the same, the inadequate responses. I'll have a list up in the evening, hopefully.

There are several villagers I cannot make my mind up about: Marco, Naria, Garin, spawn, Formen and now SpM, Gil are amongst these. They merit looking into, but I trust only myself and select others to do so. I shall do this when I am able.

My only other serious suspect yesterday was Glirdan. I only have time to say that I no longer believe in his guilt.

Farewell for a few hours.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Boy, I've been doing a lot in class.

I've done the analyses that lead to my vote during French and English Lit class.

Then, I've tried to deduce the Werewolves's killing pattern (and tried to do a Hunter hunt--I've still a handful in my list of probably Hunters) during Microbiology class.

Alphabetical order:

Abercrombie-DAY 1
Aiwendil-NIGHT 2
Cailín-NIGHT 4
DSoU
Form
Garin
Gil
Glirdan
guy
Kath
malka
Márcolië
morm
Naria
Nilp
Sauce
Shelob-DAY 2
Valier-NIGHT 3
Wayne-DAY 4

All the dead people are at either ends of the list. Now, the lynchings (and probably Cailín's death) are coincidental, but the first two NIGHT kills might not be. The Werewolves seem to be going first, then last (they'd probably leave Wayne alive to confuse). Interesting random pattern that leaves no clues whatsoever.

In that case, you might be in trouble, Sauce. Perhaps you, too, spawn.

Okay, that was slightly useless, but I've done all the possible logical analyses that I could do. I'm grasping at straws now.

Garin has indeed broken a tie thrice, but the ties have been between innocents (or himself), so it has been a lose-lose situation from the beginning. (spawn )

That might be so, but I notice that aside from the vote where he had to save himself, he voted for someone that didn't end up getting lynched.

Of course, his vote for Cailín may have led to her lynching, if she had not declared herself.

And, I do not know how this all make sense. I just pointed it out.

Oh, and you, too, fair dancer, you have an interesting track record. Two tie votes in 'favour' of an innocent, and a tie-breaking vote in 'favour' of an innocent, all leading to kills.

I don't know why I pointed that out. My survival and eventual escape from the dungeons of Sauron came from memorising all sorts of information, no matter how useless they seem.

[The Saucepan Man]

Just popping in on a quick break from my legal duties. Two points that I wanted to respond to:

Originally Posted by Formendacil

Early toDAY, SPM said of me that he's still willing to accept my excuses, and to give me the benefit of the doubt. In fact, his entire attitude today has been one of tolerance towards my peccadillo-esque behaviour. I find this in opposition to his attitude of yesterday, where he was perhaps one of the less tolerant. In fact, he seems to me to have almost made an about face of opinion: almost as if, now that I've built up enough village-wide suspicion to be lynched, he wants to distance himself from me, so as to be able to claim, once I am lynched, that he had nothing to do with my death. Of course, such a trait would suggest that he is a Werewolf.

I made it very clear yesterday that I was inclined to accept your comment that you would be putting more effort in if you were a Wolf. That remains my position, as I said earlier, because I see little need for risky behaviour on the part of the Wolves at the moment. But I am nevertheless conscious of the fact that you may be bluffing. I do not see how my position on you today is much different from my position yesterday. The fact that you see fit to try and portray me as having changed my opinion of you gives me cause for concern about you.

Originally Posted by mormegil

SpM I like most of your thoughts and they seem to make some sense to me. Where I disagree is how many people you are willing to consider innocent.

I'm not into double-lynching, not the ways things stand at the moment. So, while I am not regarding anyone as definate innocents, I am prepared to exclude people from my current analysis in order to concentrate on trying to find one Wolf today. Once we find one Wolf, it may be easier to spot the others from the voting record. I have seen nothing today that gives me cause to reconsider having Naria as my main suspect although, as I noted above, that comment of Formendacil's concerns me.

I'll be back later.

[Márcolië Lamen]

Poor Cailin, she saved the seer another night, and did her job. It really is too bad that she had to give herself away.

Looking through the voting pattern, it seems like everyone's either too quiet, like me, or voting for known innocents as of now. It is unnerving that Naria has yet to vote for a known innocent.

Reading through the lists, I had never noticed how very little I'd been speaking. I knew it had been too few, but not as little as it is. And even more than this I didn't realise how few alot of us were speaking. Maybe we need to start voting for those being quiet, to see if people are trying to hide behind silence.

Looking at posts compared to those alive.
Well I can't figure out strikethrough, so I'll underline dead people.

The Saucepan Man 32
the guy who be short 25
Cailín 24
Garin 22
mormegil 21
Glirdan 20
malkatoj 14
dancing spawn of ungoliant 13
Nilpaurion Felagund 11
Kath 9
Valier 8
Gil-Galad 7
Aiwendil 6
Formendacil 6
Shelob 6
WaynetheGoblin 5
Naria 5
Márcolië Lamen 4
AbercrombieOfRohan 4

From the bottom in those alive.
Marcolie: me. I had an excuse for the first day, but thats all. I know I'd not be able to convince people of my innocence, so I'm not going to unless necessary, instead spend the same time looking at others.

Naria. Looking at Naria I'm very suspicous because it seems like ther's not reason to. It would be such a strong position,and such an easy position to hide in. She's seemed to not go out of her way to do anything, which seems like something a wolf would have done this game, because its not necessary.

Form To me it still seems like Form's the cobbler. She declares that's the one thing she's not, but is it not a cobbler who would try to confuse? I'd let Form live, at least for now, but not trust anything said...if there's anything we can analyse.

Gil-Galad is a very odd player, and it seems like we can't figure out any of Gil's actions, yet this is normal. I'm not as nervous about Gil as Naria, or even Form because it seems like Gil we can understand, to some degree. This probably isn't a good thing to work off of, but the truth.

Kath I'd be nervous of being a wolf, because i've always known of her intelligence. I'm not going to accuse her for anything when she can't be here to defend herself. Seems too unfair.


Looking through the numbers, I'd expect, one wolf in that list. I don't think that all of them could get away being quiet, because people will be smart and not always be killing off the loud ones. One quiet wolf and two loud ones makes sense to me, but I'm not sure what the third one would be.

I would beleive strongly though that there is one quiet wolf, and one loud one.

If I had to guess wolves now from this I'd guess.
quiet: Naria mainly for lack of voting for a known innocent
loud: Garin mainly for repeated breaking of ties 'causing known innocents deaths.
other: I'm not sure...

It makes sense to me for Naria and Garin to be working together, at opposite ends of the spetrum, and then someone else in between.

[the guy who be short]

Both Naria and Marco have only posted six times, at the moment of writing. Both have been silent and sweeping under the radar, so to speak.

Naria

Post 1 - says little.

Post 2 - Votes for Nilp as he is crazy.

Fair enough under normal circumstances, but what was the point? A vote for Valier or Wayne - with 3 each - would have had more chance of determining the outcome than a throwaway vote for Nilp. Or even a vote for Abercrombie, if you suspected her. Three perfectly good options, but instead she throws her vote away.

Post 3 - As has already been said, she says she will post a comment of each villager later but then fails to do so. She also claims others are doing a good enough job of analysis - a very dangerous view, because all other analyses are potentially undertaken by wolves. She claims she has been quiet due to computer problems.

Post 4 - Says she doesn't like double lynchings. Seems logical enough, no need to do the wolves work for them unless we are pretty certain of our candidates.

Post 5 - Again, asks for forgiveness on the basis of computer problems. She also claims she goes through all posts to see what people are saying, and claims she is not good at reading between the lines. Again, this shows a dangerous willingness to accept other people's words at face value.

She then says she will make her own decisions - but using her gut instead of her head. Why anybody would prefer the use of an organ usually destined to processing ones meals over one's brain is beyond me.

She votes Form. A reasonably safe vote, but one with the potential to not be.

Last post - Says there was a storm. Posts her views on everybody, then leaves.


In conclusion, her silence seems to have been accounted for a lot better than others. However, it is the useless votes that incriminate. Her unwillingness to form her own ideas is also very worrying. So I agree, one to watch.



Marcolie

Day 1 - nothing

Post 1 - Says computer was broken. Vaguely believes in wayne, Gil, Valier and Glirdan's guilt.

Post 2 - Suspects Cailin for this ridiculous notion of "thought steering."
Suspects SpM because of "strength at playing." Eh?!
Thinks Glirdan is innocent.
Advocates voting for Gil, wayne, Valier or Naria based on their quietness. Er... a little rich.
Says she suspects Garin, similarly to morm "don't know exactly why."

Post 3 - Says she had the opportunity to vote, but can see no reason why she didn't. Doesn't try to defend himself on this. Seems a bit odd.

Posr 4 - Votes for wayne, with little choice, obviously. Says there's a possibility that Cailin is a wolf hiding behind Rangerism.

Post 5 - Says it's unnerving that Naria has yet to vote for an innocent. And for once, I agree.
Says she didn't realise how quiet she was but again advocates lynching the quiet. This seems very fishy. So... should we lynch you, Marco?
Says she thinks Form is the cobbler. I agree.
Doesn't suspect gil for being himself.

Post 6 - Says she will probably vote for Naria.


I'm afraid I don't have time for Gil just at the moment. After doing him, I'd like to take a look at Malka, Garin, SpM and Nilp, in that order. I fear SpM will be rather hefty though, and will not be able to manage it today.

Out of Naria and Marco, both seem suspicious. Naria's willingness to let others think for her, and her meaningless vote on day one, count against her. Marco's urgency to kill quiet people whilst ignoring herself is worrying. Neither goes out of their way to justify votes.

[mormegil]

I am not voting yet however I've been thinking on it a great deal and will make my intentions known. I think I will be voting for Formendacil, this could change if evidence is presented that sways me. The most frustrating part is that he is intelligent and is not helping. I find this very wolfish and I've been able to gauge him from past experience and he loves nothing more than to live on the edge. He has been insulting that we aren't doing anything and killing innocents yets doesn't help himself. At a minimum I think we will kill the cobbler at best we get a wolf. Either way it seems a win/win situation for us.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

And this is possibly my last appearance here, so I'll vote afterwards.

Nilp, I know not what to say to you. You are analyzing more than I have ever seen before...are you a wolf? (morm)

Boy, I wish I were. With daga'y and Sauce trusting me, I might win this game.

But no. No. Not a Werewolf, unless you believe my first post. I just realised that smart people get more reps than funny but useless people in WW. So, call it greed.

Enedwaith . . . I've been thinking about the votings, and how utterly stupid we have been, so here's another nifty list. The persons within the list are arranged according to how I trust them.

People not yet voted for:

spawn
daga'y
Marco (don't know what to make of her.)
Glirdan
Kath
Gil

People who had received not more than one vote in a DAY:

malka
Naria
Form

People who had received more than one vote:

Nilp
Sauce
morm
Garin

I am quite certain that at least one Werewolf has never been voted for before.

I am also quite certain that there are at least two bad guys (Werewolf or Cobbler) in the first two lists.

Now, I also tried looking at the ties made/broken during the previous votings, and I came up with this interesting figures: Garin broke a tie thrice, all in 'favour' of a innocent.

Now, considering this and all my other previous analyses, these people are suspicious:

Garin
Form
Gil
Kath
Glirdan

I don't know . . . Glirdan I'll give another DAY, since I'm only suspicious of him mainly due to his SpM attacks and not much else.

Kath . . . Well, if she's a Werewolf, and she's the only one left, since she's gone, we win.

Garin, Form, or Gil . . . *deep breath*

What say we give Form a chance to redeem himself, and let's get Garin tomorrow instead?

++Gil-Galad

[mormegil]

The Saucepan Man 32
the guy who be short 25
Cailín 24
Garin 22
mormegil 21
Glirdan 20
malkatoj 14
dancing spawn of ungoliant 13
Nilpaurion Felagund 11
Kath 9
Valier 8
Gil-Galad 7
Aiwendil 6
Formendacil 6
Shelob 6
WaynetheGoblin 5
Naria 5
Márcolië Lamen 4
AbercrombieOfRohan 4


This is the total number of post up to this point. I find it moderately disturbing that there are so many that are being so quiet. I bolded the ones who make me the most nervous. It seems that there are only a handful of us who are speaking a good amount and only a few that are moderate speaker. Yet we get yelled at because we are trying to 'influence' the village. My problem is that lack of that attempt from so many of our quiet ones. I believe that they may be sitting back waiting for many of the loudmouths to kill each other off....basically I would like to hear more from a lot of people. It's hard to make a determination of people's guilt or innocence when about 50% of us don't speak sufficiently.

[Formendacil]

Dear, dear...

I seem to be making a good deal of mentions today, without actually heading up anyone's list of suspicions. Out of character, am I?

Well, perhaps... but who here actually knows what my character actually is! After all, the facade I have presented in all games thus far might be no more than playacting!

I regret that I cannot be online more often, so as to annoy you all the more... but work, sleep, and self-imposed Church commitments severely limit such things...

Morm says I like living on the edge. He's right, you know. And maybe, just maybe, I want to get pushed off for a change. This is the sixth Werewolf game out the last seven main ones that I've been a part of... Perhaps I want an early death so as to enjoy a breather ere I, like a druggie to weed, sign up for ANOTHER round.

Or, perhaps, I'm enjoying finally being an innocent again, and am using it do Nilpish, Gil-ish, Fea-ish, Lhuna-ish stuff that I'd never do as a serious Gifted.

Or, perhaps, I'm a very, very clever Werewolf. I am smart enough for it, you know.

All that I'm going to PROMISE you is that I'm not the Cobbler. I do want the Wolves dead, and any confusion I give you, except when pertaining to myself, is completely unintentional...

However, enough about me- even though I am the most important person around here- now it is time for a moment of analysis...

It being 1:30 am in my timezone, I shan't try and look deeply at everyone. Instead, I'll just make another comment or two regarding the Saucepan Man. Strange, how he keeps coming up.

Specifically, I want to present that facet of his gaming habits thus far that affects me the most, namely his suspicions concerning me.

Early toDAY, SPM said of me that he's still willing to accept my excuses, and to give me the benefit of the doubt. In fact, his entire attitude today has been one of tolerance towards my peccadillo-esque behaviour. I find this in opposition to his attitude of yesterday, where he was perhaps one of the less tolerant. In fact, he seems to me to have almost made an about face of opinion: almost as if, now that I've built up enough village-wide suspicion to be lynched, he wants to distance himself from me, so as to be able to claim, once I am lynched, that he had nothing to do with my death. Of course, such a trait would suggest that he is a Werewolf. It would also be proveable by my death... which I'd really rather pass on at the moment.

In brief conclusion, I have no more evidence regarding the Saucepan Man's innocence or guilt than I did before, but I lean towards Glirdanism in this matter....

[The Saucepan Man]

Ah, the irony of it. All those fine legal speeches at the outset counselling against the lynch mob mentality because it was most likely to end in the death of innocents and now I myself have the blood of three innocents on my hands.

I had no idea that Cailin was one of our Gifted villagers and I strongly doubt that the Wolves did either. As far as I can see, she sensibly left no clues as to her identity. I am truly sorry for my part in her death.

Ah well, we must press on with our endeavours to find the Wolves and perhaps avenge her and the others that have died. Though I hesitate to take up my own role in this once more, as I have made such poor choices so far and am wearied by it.

Here are yesterday's votes, for what they are worth:

1. Wayne for Wayne (Wayne-1)
2. Gil-Galad for Wayne (Wayne-2)
3. Malkatoj for SpM (Wayne-2, SpM-1)
4. Glirdan for SpM (Wayne-2, SpM-2)
5. Mormegil for Cailin (Wayne-2, SpM-2, Cailin-1)
6. Nilp for Cailin (Wayne-2, SpM-2, Cailin-2)
7. SpM for Cailin (Wayne-2, SpM-2, Cailin-3)
8. Naria for Formendacil (Wayne-2, SpM-2, Cailin-3, Formendacil-1)
9. TGWBS for mormegil (Wayne-2, SpM-2, Cailin-3, Formendacil-1, mormegil-1)
10. Dancing spawn for Wayne (Wayne-3, SpM-2, Cailin-3, Formendacil-1, mormegil-1)
11. Garin for Cailin (Wayne-3, SpM-2, Cailin-4, Formendacil-1, mormegil-1)
12. Kath for mormegil (Wayne-3, SpM-2, Cailin-4, Formendacil-1, mormegil-2)
13. Formendacil for Wayne (Wayne-4, SpM-2, Cailin-4, Formendacil-1, mormegil-2)
14. Cailin for Wayne (Wayne-5, SpM-2, Cailin-4, Formendacil-1, mormegil-2)
15. Marcolie for Wayne (Wayne-6, SpM-2, Cailin-4, Formendacil-1, mormegil-2)

I fear that they will tell us little. I have been carrying out some research into voting patterns overnight and will share my conclusions shortly, once I have collated them into something intelligible.

[The Saucepan Man]

You know, despite our best endeavours to spread the voting on Day 1, it is now looking very much (at least from my perspective) like not one vote was cast for a Wolf. And I suspect that the following Days were not much different. Let me explain how I have reached this conclusion.

On Day 1, of 17 votes cast, 14 were for people that we now know to be innocent. That's 82% of the votes on Day 1 for known innocents! The remaining three votes were cast for me and Nilp. Since I am fairly certain of Nilp's innocence, that means that, from where I am standing, not one Wolf was voted for on Day 1.

Day 2 was a bit better. Of 12 votes cast, 6 were for known innocent (50%), or seven from my perspective as one vote was cast for me.

On Day 3, we had a relapse. Of 15 votes cast, 10 were for known innocents (66.6%), or 12 (80%) from my perspective.

Overall, out of a total 44 votes cast over the three days, 30 have been for known innocents. That's 68%. For me, the figure rises to 34 (77%).

Considering that not all of the votes for those whose identity is not yet known will have been for Wolves, it is clear that we do not have a very good strike rate.

So, what does that tell us?

1. While voting patterns are normally of some help in finding Wolves, that is only the case when there are Wolves among those who are in the running and/or when we actually manage to find a Wolf. As matters stand, given our poor strike rate, the voting patterns are about as much use as a post by Formendacil. (That's unfair - he was actually rather constructive in the latter stages of yesterday. Although the comparison may not be so unfair, as there may be something we can learn from the voting patterns, as I hope to show.)

2. The number of innocents that a person has voted for is, in these circumstances, not a particularly useful guide for determining who might be a Wolf. Four of us have voted for three innocents (mormegil, dancing spawn, Garin and myself). I doubt that any more than one, at most, of these is a Wolf. Shelob, a known innocent, cast both of her votes for innocents. And Cailin, also a known innocent and our esteemed Ranger, cast two of her three votes for innocents. Two other villagers - Formendacil and Kath - have voted two out of three times for innocents. In fact, only two villagers have not voted for a known innocent - Glirdan and Naria. And I (although I alone) know that Glirdan has in fact voted for an innocent twice (with one "no vote").

3. In light of the way that the voting has gone, there has been little need, if any, for Wolves to vote to go out of their way to get an innocent lynched. We have done that for them.

I conclude from this that we should perhaps not be looking at those who have voted on a number of occasions for known innocents. In the circumstances of our past three days' voting, this would have been unnecessarily risky behaviour for the Wolves. It seems to me that they are much more likely to have been placing "safe" votes, since we have given them the opportunity to do just that.

I acknowledge that these musings might be seen as self-serving, given that I have voted for three different known innocents. But I hope that you will see that there may be some merit in them. And perhaps they might actually help us to bag a Wolf today.

More in a bit with my thoughts on individual villagers - for what they may be worth.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Interesting post, Sauce. I see we have been thinking about the same thing yesterday.

From the voting patterns of DAY 1 and 2--this was before I saw the results of DAY 3--there were two groups of two people that leapt to me. Yes, they really did.

Note this (known innocents in underline):

DAY 1
1. Formendacil for Valier (Valier-1)
2. WaynetheGoblin for Formendacil (Valier-1; Formendacil-1)
3. Nilpaurion for Nilpaurion (Valier-1; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-1)
4. Valier for WaynetheGoblin (Valier-1; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-1, Wayne-1)
5. AbercrombieofRohan for Nilpaurion (Valier-1; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-1)
6. Cailin for WaynetheGoblin (Valier-1; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2)
7. Mormegil for Valier (Valier-2; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2)
8. Saucepan Man for AbercrombieofRohan (Valier-2; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2, Abercrombie-1)
9. TGWBS for AbercrombieofRohan (Valier-2; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2, Abercrombie-2)
10. Garin for Valier (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2, Abercrombie-2)
11. Spawn for Abercrombie (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2, Abercrombie-3)
12. Aiwendil for Abercrombie (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2, Abercrombie-4)
13. Kath for Abercrombie (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2, Abercrombie-5)
14. Shelob for Garin (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2, Abercrombie-5, Garin-1)
15. Malkatoj for WaynetheGoblin (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-3, Abercrombie-5, Garin-1)
16. Glirdan for SpM (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-3, Abercrombie-5, Garin-1, SpM-1)
17. Naria for Nilpaurion (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-3, Wayne-3, Abercrombie-5, Garin-1, SpM-1)

DAY 2
1. Nilpaurion for malkatoj (malkatoj -1)
2. Malkatoj for Kath (malkatoj -1, Kath -1)
3. Valier for Garin (malkatoj -1, Kath -1, Garin -1)
4. Mormegil for Cailin (malkatoj -1, Kath -1, Garin -1, Cailin -1)
5. SpM for Shelob (malkatoj -1, Kath -1, Garin -1, Cailin -1, Shelob -1)
6. TGWBS for Naria (malkatoj -1, Kath -1, Garin -1, Cailin -1, Shelob -1, Naria -1)
7. Spawn for Shelob (malkatoj -1, Kath -1, Garin -1, Cailin -1, Shelob -2, Naria -1)
8. Formendacil for SpM (malkatoj -1, Kath -1, Garin -1, Cailin -1, Shelob -2, Naria -1, SpM -1)
9. Cailin for Garin (malkatoj -1, Kath -1, Garin -2, Cailin -1, Shelob -2, Naria -1, SpM -1)
10. Kath for Valier (malkatoj -1, Kath -1, Garin -2, Cailin -1, Shelob -2, Naria -1, SpM -1, Valier -1)
11. Shelob for Cailin (malkatoj -1, Kath -1, Garin -2, Cailin -2, Shelob -2, Naria -1, SpM -1, Valier -1)
12. Garin for Shelob (malkatoj -1, Kath -1, Garin -2, Cailin -2, Shelob -3, Naria -1, SpM -1, Valier -1)

Block A: Kath - Garin

DAY 1: Garin votes for Valier
Kath seals Abercrombie's fate.

DAY 2: Kath votes for Valier
Garin seals Shelob's fate.

NIGHT 3: Valier is killed by the Werewolves.

Block B: Glirdan - Formendacil

DAY 1: Form votes for Valier (well, this is irrelevant)
Glirdan votes for SpM

DAY 2: Form votes for SpM for 'controlling the game.'
Glirdan is silent.

DAY 3: The attack on Sauce commences. One of the loudmouths (in this case, Cailín) saw him 'controlling the game.' Glirdan votes for SpM. The attempt fails, and blame is shifted to the loudmouth who 'orchestrated' the attack (i.e., Cailín), despite the fact that the attack has already started from DAY 2.

Block B is still unconvincing for me. Hmmm, but does mormegil's attack on Cailín fit the second scenario? . . . No, his attack on her began even before she pointed at Sauce.

Okay, I'll be back in a few hours for more thoughts and a vote.

Don't change the channel!

[The Saucepan Man]

As much as Cailin's redoubtable intelligence concerned me when I feared her to be a Wolf, I trust it in one that I now know to have been innocent. Armed with the knowledge of her innocence, I respect her judgement.

Originally Posted by Cailin yesterday

Innocents:

Nilp
TGWBS
Glirdan
Kath
Saucepan Man (?)

Setting myself aside (as it is for you to decide whether you trust me), I am inclined to view each of these villagers favourably for the time being, both on the basis that Cailin trusted them and on the basis of my own instincts (although they have not exactly served me well so far ).

I have been fairly convinced of Nilp's innocence for most of the game. I still am. I may be wrong but, if I am, I shall never quiz with him again ( ).

TGWBS has, after a slow start, talked little but good sense. I agree with almost everything that he has said. His conclusions on mormegil are perhaps an exception, but I can certainly see how he got there. If he is a Wolf, he is playing an exceedingly good (albeit fiendish) game.

My original suspicions of Glirdan lessened considerably yesterday. And, the more I think about it, the more his behaviour looks to me to be that of an innocent. I do not think that a Wolf would have pressed the case against me so strongly over the course of three Days, since he would immediately have been under suspcion were I to have been lynched. As I have said, there has been no need, given the way that the voting has gone, for the Wolves to have taken such risks. I know that this will not help others' conclusions about Glirdan, but it greatly assists me.

TGWBS made some good points in Kath's favour yesterday. Her votes, and particularly her Day 1 vote, look decidedly un-Wolfish to me in light of what we now know. Her early vote today is slightly unnerving, but I am willing to accept that there are good reasons for it. Moreover, whether mormegil is innocent or guilty, it is a foolish vote for a Wolf. It is quite possible, as matters stand, that he will be lynched today and, if that happens, a Wolfish Kath risks either losing a partner in crime, if he is guilty, or attracting immediate suspision, if he is innocent. So I do not think that Kath is a Wolf.

I continue to believe malkatoj innocent, mainly for the Aiwendil/Kath vote, but also because it would have been unnecessarily risky for a Wolf to vote for me at such an early stage yesterday (again, that helps only me).

I am still inclined to believe Formendacil when he says that he would have been paying much more attention to proceedings were he a Wolf. I do not discount the possibility that he is bluffing. But, again, there has been little need for the Wolves to take any risks thus far, and Formendacil's approach has been risky, if he is a Wolf. Currently, I don't think that he is.

Which brings me to a difficult trio: mormegil, dancing spawn and Garin. Their votes, on the face of it, would appear to incriminate them. Although no more than mine. I can hardly accuse them of being Wolves on the basis of their voting record, given my own poor record. And, as I have said, their votes look to me to be unnecessarily risky ones for Wolves to have cast. Thus far, I have been inclined to trust mormegil and dancing spawn because they have seemed to me to be talking good sense. The fact that dancing spawn has hardly been considered as a possible Wolf concerns me, but I am prepared to give both of them the benefit of the doubt for the time being. If they are innocent, they are worth having around. Garin I have been less sure about and I will keep an eye on him, but I don't have any specific reason for suspecting him at present. I do, however, have a concern that there may be one bold Wolf (two at a stretch) amongst this trio.

So that leaves me with Gil-Galad, Naria and Marcolie Lamen.

Gil-Galad I have no idea about. Like Wayne, he can look suspicious when he is not. His stated reason for voting for Wayne yesterday (that he may have been a Wolf "pulling a Nilp") seems reasonable to me. And his behaviour to date has been much as I would expect from him. So, difficult to say.

Marcolie Lamen, I have no handle on. Her two "no votes" might be regarded as suspicious, and therefore unduly risky for a Wolf, but she has given reasons why she was not able to vote and they apply whether she is innocent or guilty. And it is difficult to draw any conclusions from her vote yesterday, as it was rather forced on her by circumstances. It is fair to say, however, that her voting record has attracted little attention to her so far.

My main suspicion at the moment, therefore, is directed towards Naria. Other than Glirdan (who has voted twice for me), she is the only one of us to have cast no vote for a known innocent. Which, on the basis of the theory which I outlined earlier, makes her very suspicous in my eyes. As has been noted on a number of occasions, her vote for Nilp right at the end of Day 1 was a very safe vote for a Wolf to make. She did not vote on Day 2. And her Day 3 vote for Formendacil, while it carried with it the possibility of getting him lynched, was actually very unlikely to do so in light of the way that the day was going. I do not discount the possibility that it was a Wolf on Wolf vote.

So, to summarise (and excluding myself):

Probably innocent
Nilpaurion Felagund
TGWBS
Kath
Glirdan

Prepared to continue to give the benefit of the doubt
Formendacil
mormegil
dancing spawn
Garin

No idea
Gil-Galad
Marcolie Lamen

Probably a Wolf
Naria

Note that I think it unlikely that our Wolfish trio comprises Gil-Galad, Marcolie Lamen and Naria, so there is at least one Wolf, possibly two, elsewhere on my list. Probably among the four that I am currently giving the benefit of the doubt to - problem is, I have no idea which.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

I have been fairly convinced of Nilp's innocence for most of the game. I still am. I may be wrong but, if I am, I shall never quiz with him again ( ). (SpM)

You won't take a pointed object, paradrop to the Philippines, and stab me repeatedly? Awww . . .

The way I see it, we have a crisis (duh), and everyone is reverting to type.

Sauce is like a lawyer presenting a case everyday to a jury. Unfortunately, the jury thinks he's not been doing good, so it almost decided to kill him.

spawn . . . well, if I were to enumerate her positive traits, the Downs might collapse on itself and become an internet blackhole. So . . . she consistently makes good sense, to me at least.

Garin is Garin. See previous game, and his junior game.

daga'y is quite fond of me, like in the previous game. Why? What do you see in me?

mormegil is scary. Always has been for me, 'cept when we were Shirriffs.

Kath is confusing.

Glirdan, too.

Gil-galad . . . no comment.

Naria makes some sense, but posts very little to go on. See previous game.

Marco . . . well, haven't played with her yet. Sorry.

Wait, but what about Formendaga? He's acting weird . . . and don't tell me you're not playing a smart Cobbler or Werewolf. It takes smart people to act stupid. I know. I'm too stupid to act stupid.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Nilp

You won't take a pointed object, paradrop to the Philippines, and stab me repeatedly?

Repeated stabbing would be to good for you. On further consideration, perhaps I should just bar you from the Quiz/Quotes Rooms altogether if you turn out to be a Wolf ...

Originally Posted by Nilp

The way I see it, we have a crisis (duh), and everyone is reverting to type.

Indeed. Your own post bears you out on this.

Interesting thoughts, Nilp. I shall muse them over.

Originally Posted by Nilp

DAY 3: The attack on Sauce commences. One of the loudmouths (in this case, Cailín) saw him 'controlling the game.' Glirdan votes for SpM. The attempt fails, and blame is shifted to the loudmouth who 'orchestrated' the attack (i.e., Cailín), despite the fact that the attack has already started from DAY 2.

The way I currently see it, the Wolves have not actually been doing much to attack innocents in any concerted way during the day. They have most likely left that to the innocents themselves (we have been unwittingly obliging in this regard) and concentrated on laying low.

You will all no doubt be relieved to hear that my legal duties (RL: job) will prevent me from participating much tomorrow. I will get a chance to look in during the afternoon and will certainly take into account all that has been said when I cast my vote.

If I were to vote now, it would be for Naria. But that could change, depending upon how today's dicsussions go.

[mormegil]

Nilp, I know not what to say to you. You are analyzing more than I have ever seen before...are you a wolf?

Wait, but what about Formendaga? He's acting weird . . . and don't tell me you're not playing a smart Cobbler or Werewolf. It takes smart people to act stupid. I know. I'm too stupid to act stupid.

This is what I was trying to get at before but I didn't say it as Nilpy as Nilp said it.

SpM I like most of your thoughts and they seem to make some sense to me. Where I disagree is how many people you are willing to consider innocent. I for one have not and will not give Malka innocent status based on her vote for Aiwendil. We are far to willing to do this and I have warned against it adamantly but nobody seems to listen to this.

I do agree that TGWBS is innocent and most likely Nilp only because he seems to be very helpful, which is so odd that I don't know if he might be a wolf...this new behavior confuses me. Kath I'm thinking is innocent but I don't know if I'd put her in that category yet.

Looking over Kath's post (you know the long one) I found something that strikes me as odd. She doesn't like my reason for voting for Cailin and votes for me based on that, yet SpM and I seemed to think very similarly throughout the day and SpM used, in my opinion, similar logic as mine, however more well articulated. Yet Kath doesn't seem to suspect him, nor does she seem to suspect anybody else who voted Cailin. I'm not saying that Kath is guilty or that SpM, Nilp, Garin and any other that may have voted for her are guilty but I am saying that my track record does not make me guilty as it doesn't mean that the others are necissarily guilty. I was getting annoyed with TGWBS's requests because I found them repetative and frequent. I thought I had answered his queries, yet he asks again for the a response. I try to be subtle yet it doesn't work so I am forced to be more overt.