Tol-in-Gaurhoth XVII: The Saga Continues to Continue quite Continuously

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Nilp

Vzv, Sauce, if you're a Werewolf, I will personally select a poisoned arrow, and personally paradrop on your workplace to personally shoot you in the heart.

... and you would be thoroughly justified in doing so. Rest assured, though, you won't be put to the trouble.

Originally Posted by TGWBS

All this suspicion suddenly piled onto Cailin is somewhat astounding, as I hadn't really thought much about her before - and that's always a bad sign.

To be fair, she did attract two votes yesterday - only one less than the day's lynchee. One from mormegil, who has been pretty consistent in his suspicion of her and one from Shelob, who we now know was innocent (although that, of course, does not mean that she could not have been mistaken). And, if I recall correctly, dancing spawn had her suspicions of Cailin yesterday too.

My own suspicion of Cailin is a relatively new development. It started when I tried to work out why I had suddenly become such a strong suspect in the early discussions of today. Like Nilp, I didn't like the way that Cailin put the case against me, while claiming not to be making an accusation. When I looked back, it seemed to me that she had done much the same thing yesterday with regard to Shelob, while ultimately extricating herself from involvement in the lynching of an innocent. Mormegil's comments today on her therefore struck a chord with me. Although I would emphasise that I am not being swayed by him - I had separately reached the same conclusion.

Hmm, I must vote soon if I am to vote at all today. I have seen nothing to deter me from casting my vote for either Wayne or Cailin. And I am more inclined to vote for Cailin since Wayne, while acting strangely, is unpredictable by his very nature.

Originally Posted by TGWBS

But Gil's vote - that's incriminating! It can't really be construed as anything but a capitalisation on wayne's self-vote.

I see what you are saying, but (except perhaps at the beginning of Day 1) Gil has not really been under determined suspicion so far and so a Wolfish Gil would have no particular reason at this stage to take overt steps to deflect the votes away from him. And I can't really condemn him for suspecting Wayne because of Wayne's self-vote because I suspect Wayne for much the same reason.

And finally (for now) ...

Originally Posted by Kath

And repliers, don't assume that you're under suspicion and react angrily ...

I didn't react angrily because I assumed that I was under suspicion. I reacted angrily because I was under suspicion - and for pretty silly reasons in my opinion. But I am much calmer now. Thank you.

[the guy who be short]

Originally Posted by Cailin

Mormegil, I get what you were trying to say yesterDay now. And obviously, I even agreed with you, at least, said the same thing using different words. However, I find it quite hypocritical that you first accuse Malka and me because we were ‘going for the easy kill’ (I’m not quite sure what that means anyway – surely you would never find killing easy?) and then you state you wish the weirdos out of the way first, too. I’m not saying I would vote for you because of this, but I rather demand an explanation, because by targeting Malka and me you might also have been going for easy kills (and voting for Valier does not make you appear any less guilty).

Her first comment on Day 2 is an attack on morm for hypocrisy.

Originally Posted by morm

I don't know why but something about Cailin isn't sitting right with me and I think I will watch her closely too.

Good reasoning. And here we seen morm's knee-jerk reaction, without even the pretence of an explanation.

Originally Posted by Cailin

I accept Mormegil might have just voted for Valier to get things going, but Garin put Valier clearly in the lead again. Something about Garin is making me nervous anyway – he seems uncharacteristically quiet and eager to hide behind theories proposed by others.

This is Cailin's post that allegedly influenced that lynching of Shelob:

Shelob's vote for Garin stands out and so does Glirdan’s vote for SpM, but not in a way that makes me immediately think them wolvish.

That is what a lot of the suspicions seem to be based on. Tens of these comments are made all the time by all villagers. This, in my eyes, hardly points to her guilt.

Originally Posted by malka

Since I doubt all three of those people are wolves, I'd like to point out Shelob's vote (if it hasn't been done already, I've looked over everything but might have missed it). Since she's the only one who voted Garin, it's not getting a lot of attention--we tend to pay more attention to the bandwagons, and I've no doubt she knows this. Her vote is pretty safe in that, as I said above, Garin is pretty much an unknown, and there was no chance of his being killed so it went under everyone's radar. I'm not completely convinced that she's a wolf, but it seems very possible (and, considering past games and the fact that she's alive, likely).

Here's something making me reconsider her innocence. Cailin was the first to mention Shelob's vote, then SpM did so, but this is the first real accusation.

Cailin also claims she is "genuinly concerning about" these:

Kath
Shelob
TGWBS
Garin

Of whom Garin is a fierce critic of her.

Furthermore, she expressed sincere doubt of morm.




My analysis stops there. All I find is more and more evidence pointing at morm. He has it in for Cailin. And it is plain that her mention of Shelob is hardly worth mentioning as a serious influence in lynching her.

Morm has constantly sought to attack Cailin, for two days, with little explanation.

Originally Posted by morm

I haven't been able to read all yet but I find it interesting that Cailin attacks me, mildly, but still attacks because I haven't mentioned Spawn before. I think I have at one point but I'm not suspicious of her so why mention her? Also there are many others I haven't mentioned. Cailin is seeming to be the most wolfish to me currently and I don't have much time to explain but she's wise and cunning beyond her years and I think she's attempting to steer us to her thoughts and I find this unsettling at this stage.

No reasoning on Day 2. Just a vote. Why does morm have it in for Cailin? This, by the way, is the first example I can find of Cailin's alleged thought-steering.

I heavily criticised this comment from mormegil:

Originally Posted by morm

Now while I still suspect Cailin she did bring up some good points in her analysis of TGWBS

To which he replied:

Originally Posted by morm

TGWBSis pestering me, all game seemingly, for responses to any and all queries he may have. What I found from Cailin's post is that up to that point you had been vocal and yet contributed little.

The thing is, in my search, I could find no reference to this whatsoever. Cailin originally declares she's unsure of my innocence as you can never trust me, then goes on to say she believes in my innocence due to my posting record. The entire thing seems fabricated to me.

I know I was meant to analyse Cailin, but it has really led me off on a tangent and an attack of morm. He consistently accuses her with little evidence, and is behind the entire bandwagon at the moment when there is nothing pointing at her guilt, in my eyes. His fabrications are further reason to suspect him.

Enough so that I will abandon my pursuit of Glirdan and vote

++MORMEGIL

In the hope that others follow my example.



Though it wont look it, this will probably be a crosspost with many people. The last post I can see is SpM's at 5:26. The internet is playing up and I can't refresh the page to see what else may have popped up. Sorry.

[Garin]

Posted by TGWBS: Of whom Garin is a fierce critic of her. (Re: Cailin)

Um, she started it. Plus, I'm not that fierce, she has me beat in that category.

[Cailín]

You are all fools. Pretty much.

(And indeed Garin - I am a little angry. Just because I am always lynched as an innocent and people say I am so 'cunning', while the only time I was a wolf, I did not survive past Day 1. However, I am not sure whether I deserve all your comments and would like to ask you -seriously- to stop making this so personal. For me, it is not. I love the game and can get really into it. I'm sorry if I hurt you.)

I came back a little early... and see Mormegil has managed to convince almost the entire village of my intelligence, wisdom and cunningness. Wow. Thanks. Though actually, sir, I think you far more deserve such descriptions. And though I feel I might be a little prejudiced, since I have been your target for a while... I cannot help but feel that TGWBS might have a point.

I think I now have a fair idea who is who in this village, and yet am afraid to speak up. Whatever I say right now, it seems like it will never be enough. If I act aggressively, Garin will be convinced I am guilty. If I don't say anything, I am sneaky and manipulative.

Mormegil, I think you are a wolf. I think Garin is either also a wolf or just rather blind. I think Spawn might be a wolf. And if she is not, then one of the quiet people. Wayne is possibly the Cobbler.

Innocents:

Nilp
TGWBS
Glirdan
Kath
Saucepan Man (?)

Hopefully I shall be back soon with a bit more.