Tol-in-Gaurhoth XVII: The Saga Continues to Continue quite Continuously

[mormegil]

Interesting! I seem to be agreeing with SpM. That is unusual. His analysis seems fair and I agree. My suspicion of Glidan has increased and in post 90 some things strike me as odd. He seems a bit over dramatic at the death of Aiwendil, which is a blow to our village. He also seems to be purposefully confusing but not to an extreme.

Originally Posted by SpM

Kath has sought to explain her vote for Abercrombie today. I still find it strange, however, that she expressed suspicion of me, analysed a few other villagers, and then cast a vote for someone completely different on the basis of what others had said (and for the person who I, her suspect, had voted for).

This is one point where I agree completely. It raised some red flags in my mind to do such an analysis yesterday and seem to suspect me and others but then simply follow Spawn and vote at a crucial time thus sealing the fate. Today she seemed worried about how I brought that up yesterday and immediately went to explain it. Seems a bit defensive to me.

Valier seems oddly serious today after getting some suspicion cast on her. I still think I will be looking her way today. Also, she seemed unwilling to listen to SpM's logical 'Policy'.

I don't know why but something about Cailin isn't sitting right with me and I think I will watch her closely too.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

And after, this I won't be back, sorry. If Eru hadn't changed the shape of Ambar maybe I wouldn't have these timezone problems. Curse you, Tar-Calion!

I've been chewing on the previous DAY's voting records, and this is the only thing that approximates an analysis that I've come up with. Right now, I find myself suspicious of (in order):

malka, and her vote for Wayne.. With four votes left, was she perhaps pushing for a tie?

Garin, and his vote for Valier. Yet another case of pushing for a tie? Although . . . there were still a lot of votes at that time.

Glirdan, and his vote for SpM. Well, it seemed pretty useless.

Well, my vote for today is:

++malkatoj

Ugh, I feel utterly useless.

[Garin]

Well, I don't feel we are closer to finding a wolf. The first day is random but the wolves' choice should be telling. I'm not sure what it tells. I agree with others that those who made isolated votes should be watched closely. Votes late and unexplained are even more suspicious than votes for the innocent. I am tempted to redeem my vote for Valier, if only to be consistent. There are others that seem wolvish, but perhaps I should just go down my list.
It has been mentioned that I picked apart occupations that were chosen prior to roles being given out by the mod. Well, we have nothing to go on during the first day, and I was really aiming at wolvish personalities. Remember, role-playing can shield a person. I mentioned I have no social manners in my occupation just to cover my behind and protect myself regardless and prior to my role. You see, I have had litttle luck on other islands. It is a good cover to make excuses for odd behaviour and it pays off if one of you becomes a werewolf. Nonetheless, I chose a noble career with which I collect quite a purse and plus have pigs that can sniff out lycans as well as they find fungi, unfortunately they are still nervous and have told me little.

[the guy who be short]

Just registering my presence and showing this:

Here is a list of votes in order. The three rows are "vote for," "vote by"
and "total votes."

Valier - Formen (Valier - 1)
Formen - Wayne (Valier - 1; Formen - 1)
Nilp - Nilp (Valier - 1; Formen - 1; Nilp - 1)
Wayne - Valier (Valier - 1; Formen - 1; Nilp - 1; Wayne - 1)
Nilp - Abercrombie (Valier - 1; Formen - 1; Nilp - 2; Wayne - 1)
Wayne - Cailin (Valier - 1; Formen - 1; Nilp - 2; Wayne - 2)
Valier - Morm (Valier - 2; Formen - 1; Nilp - 2; Wayne - 2)
Abercrombie - SpM (Valier - 2; Formen - 1; Nilp - 2; Wayne - 2; Abercrombie
- 1)
Abercrombie - TGWBS (Valier - 2; Formen - 1; Nilp - 2; Wayne - 2;
Abercrombie - 2)
Valier - Garin (Valier - 3; Formen - 1; Nilp - 2; Wayne - 2; Abercrombie -
2)
Abercrombie - Spawn (Valier - 3; Formen - 1; Nilp - 2; Wayne - 2;
Abercrombie - 3)
Abercrombie - Aiwendil (Valier - 3; Formen - 1; Nilp - 2; Wayne - 2;
Abercrombie - 4)
Abercrombie - Kath (Valier - 3; Formen - 1; Nilp - 2; Wayne - 2; Abercrombie
- 5)
Garin - Shelob (Valier - 3; Formen - 1; Nilp - 2; Wayne - 2; Abercrombie -
5; Garin - 1)
Wayne - malkatoj (Valier - 3; Formen - 1; Nilp - 2; Wayne - 3; Abercrombie -
5; Garin - 1)
SpM - Glirdan (Valier - 3; Formen - 1; Nilp - 2; Wayne - 3; Abercrombie - 5;
Garin - 1; SpM - 1)
Nilp - Naria (Valier - 3; Formen - 1; Nilp - 3; Wayne - 3; Abercrombie - 5;
Garin - 1; SpM - 1)

Theories later, when I have time...

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Originally Posted by mormegil

This is one point where I agree completely. It raised some red flags in my mind to do such an analysis yesterday and seem to suspect me and others but then simply follow Spawn and vote at a crucial time thus sealing the fate. Today she seemed worried about how I brought that up yesterday and immediately went to explain it. Seems a bit defensive to me.

It raised red flags in my mind, too.

Originally Posted by Kath

If you feel you must pursue this then feel free.

Then I shall take a moment to analyze Kath's behaviour, because it has made me rather uneasy.

#11 - Kath makes an appearance, but doesn't really say anything else than on Day 1, we randomly accuse people, but doesn't do it herself because it's too quiet for her.

#13 - Says that reasoned accusations aren't helpful yet, some suspicion towards the legal system and Saucy.

However, it's really Kath's post #76 that made me say "huh?".

"[Spawn] votes Crombie, seemingly in order to cause a double lynch!" ~Kath

Ha ha ha... uh, sorry. But seriously, I'd like to know how on earth could my vote have caused a double lynching when there was more than an hour till the end of the Day and there were 8 votes left.

"As far as I've got it is spawn that seems to stand out as innocent, so I'm going to accept her ideas about Crombie. I've not seen anyone I've really wanted to vote for toDay, but those points about her flipflopping around are persuasive." ~Kath

That's some nice framing up, but to me it seems that Kath's a bit too eager to accuse people with flimsy reasons and that she was trying to make an alibi for herself, perhaps knowing what the result in the voting would be. This doesn't necessarily make as much sense to the rest of you than it does to me because you can't be sure that I'm innocent (except the Seer, if they decide to dream of me), but shifting the responsibility of her vote on me instead of standing behind her own vote is really strange.

Really, if you're innocent, you can trust no other villager, so you should use your own brain instead of "accepting" anyone other's ideas. Also the use of the word "persuasive" here is interesting. I'm not trying to manipulate anyone to do anything, I'm gathering my thoughts and I do that aloud.


Well, that's it about Kath, and now something else.

- The voting. I can't tell much of it yet. If I'm going to comment it, I'll go back to reread everything more closely. Anyway, although I'm aware that the time zones have an effect on this, I'd believe that at least one of the wolves held back their vote a bit until they were sure that none of their comrades needed rescuing from the gallows. Also, I'd like to know if Kath was cross-posting her vote with Aiwendil because there's only three minutes between their posts.

- Márcolië Lamen. Glad to see that our missing villager has arrived.

- Silent people policy.

Originally Posted by Saucy

I think that it was spawn who suggested that we should have a policy on this. I agree. My own view is that we should not be voting for people just because they are behaving in the way that they always behave. And unless we really have nothing to go on, we should not be voting for people on the basis that they contribute little. The reason being that they are just as likely to be a Gifted as any of us. No one should be voting for anyone unless they have some kind of a valid reason for doing so, and that does not include acting in a way that makes you suspicious when that is the way they always act.

Sounds sensible, but this shouldn't make us hesitant to make a case against them either (I'm sure you didn't mean that, just mentioning). In a situation where no-one has any valid reason to accuse another villager, I prefer saving a contributing villager instead of someone who barely talks. As you said, anyone can be a Gifted, so we can't really go with that. However, now that we've scrambled through Day 1, we should have better chances to find good reasons to back up our theories.

[Cailín]

Kath has sought to explain her vote for Abercrombie today. I still find it strange, however, that she expressed suspicion of me, analysed a few other villagers, and then cast a vote for someone completely different on the basis of what others had said (and for the person who I, her suspect, had voted for).

Mildly suspicious indeed, but I think this attacking of Kath because of that might be a bit overreacting. She may just have been insecure, unwilling to add another name to the pot and figured the best kill yesterDay was Abercrombie. I don’t know, though. Something about her feels weird to me, too.

My own view is that we should not be voting for people just because they are behaving in the way that they always behave. And unless we really have nothing to go on, we should not be voting for people on the basis that they contribute little. The reason being that they are just as likely to be a Gifted as any of us.

Agreed. The problem with this policy, though, is that the silent ones are just as likely to be wolves and when worst comes to worst, it’s quite hard gathering evidence against them. Also, Gil and Wayne generally get away with things (i.e. non-voting, being unreasonable) that others would never get away with. But still, I mostly agree.

It is possibsle that it was a clumsy attempt to frame Valier, Formendacil and/or Wayne, given that he expressed interest in Glirdan's crazy triumvirate theory. But then, why not kill Glirdan or Kath (who also saw some attraction in the theory)? Why not indeed? Hmmm ...

A very clumsy attempt then, if that is indeed so. I know what you are trying to say and unwilling though I am to defend others whom I don’t know the identity of, it seems more likely that the wolves killed Aiwendil because he could not be associated with any of them than any other reason.

You seem very willing to cast suspicion on Glirdan, SpM. Are you sure you are not being vindictive? And anyway – if he is guilty – do you believe he would have gone after you, while we know you, as a man of the law, are probably able to make a case against anything that moves? On the other hand, I have missed your analyses!

--

Good to see Marcolie Lamen has finally arrived! At least we don’t have to worry about that anymore. So, let’s see what names were casually dropped in relation to wolvishness toDay:

Kath
Glirdan

Together because of their interest in Glirdy’s far-fetched and unlikely theory. Of the two, Kath strikes me as being the most likely to be a wolf, due to other accusations brought against her. However, I am convinced of neither. That Kath sealed Abercrombie’s fate is perhaps a sign of her guilt, but I hardly believe a wolf would seal the fate of a doomed innocent, when she could have safely voted for any of the others.

Malkatoj

Well, I’m not sure what moved Nilp to vote for her, really.

For now, I am really confused. I think this whole triangle thing should immediately be forgotten – it was a crazy theory yesterDay and remains so toDay. The people that have been mentioned so far are not the people whom I suspect right now. Sooner, some of the loudmouths are making me a bit uneasy at the moment… I fear we will eventually let them take control of the game (and why are Mormegil and Saucepan Man in agreement? That cannot be good, right?)

Anyway, I am willing to accept that there was no wolf in the Abercrombie-wagon. If there was one, I should think it either:

TGWBS
Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant

Because of the time and relative security of their votes. Also, assuming Wayne is innocent, a wolf might have voted for him. I think that would have happened later on, when he became a relatively safe vote, for at the time I voted it was still rather likely Wayne was up for lynching. So that would make:

Malkatoj

Most suspicious. Then providing Valier is innocent,

Garin

Looks bad. I accept Mormegil might have just voted for Valier to get things going, but Garin put Valier clearly in the lead again. Something about Garin is making me nervous anyway – he seems uncharacteristically quiet and eager to hide behind theories proposed by others.

If Aiwendil was merely killed to make the wolves look good, we should look at Saucepan Man. Also, the death of innocent Aiwendil – contrary to what I stated earlier – makes anyone in the Abercrombie wagon appear less guilty on first sight, so we should definitely not forget who were in there.

That is all I can do for now.

[The Saucepan Man]

My analysis of Day 1 comments has proved helpful.
Even if only in a small way.

This post may seem strange to some.
Only one may understand it.
Or more – if they know a cross stick when they see one.

Not much analysis here, I am afraid.
I will be back later with something more constructive.
Let logic serve us in the meantime.
Perhaps this will be of some small use.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by dancing spawn

… but this shouldn't make us hesitant to make a case against them either (I'm sure you didn't mean that, just mentioning). In a situation where no-one has any valid reason to accuse another villager, I prefer saving a contributing villager instead of someone who barely talks.

I don’t disagree with this. There is, I think, a case to be made out against Wayne for his strange vote yesterday. But we should all know by now that this is generally how Wayne behaves, whether innocent or guilty. That said, his first post of the Day was uncharacteristically long …

Originally Posted by Cailín

You seem very willing to cast suspicion on Glirdan, SpM. Are you sure you are not being vindictive?

I am conscious of people’s natural tendency to suspect those who accuse them, and the dangers of doing so. The same applies, as far as I am concerned, to Kath to a lesser degree. But that does not mean that I should not examine them where there is evidence to suggest that they may be Wolves. Glirdan’s vote for me carried no danger of getting me lynched at the time that it was cast and so may certainly be viewed as a possible “safe” Wolfish vote.

Kath and, to a lesser extent, Glirdan have both come under the spotlight today, primarily as a result of the suspicions that I have aired. There are, I think, good points made against both of them. But it is also fair to say that their behaviour may also have an entirely innocent explanation. I am not yet ready to vote for either of them on the basis of the evidence as it stands.

Which brings me to another point. We should be aware of the dangers of allowing those who are vocal and who commit themselves to certain positions to dominate our deliberations. From my studies, I have been able to ascertain that this has been the undoing of villages beset by Werewolves in the past. We should perhaps be more wary of those who do not commit themselves, who participate in our discussions without taking any definite position and who seem to say little to draw attention to themselves.

At the moment, I would place the following in this category:

Formendacil: One “jokey” post which tells us little about him and a random vote. But there were reasons given for this, so I will suspend judgment on him for the time being.

Malkatoj: Other than some Day 1 random accusation, has only really committed herself to accusing two “easy targets”: Wayne and Gil-Galad.

Naria: Nothing from her so far to enable us to get a handle on her.

Garin: Has taken some flak for his coin flip vote for Valier. But has given little away as to where his real suspicions may lie.

Valier: Voted on Day 1 with no real reasoning and has told us little of her own thoughts. I do wonder, however, whether a Wolf would have been so bold at this stage to challenge my suggestion that all votes and accusations should be reasoned.

Márcolië Lamen: Very quiet so far and did not vote yesterday. But she has explained her reasons so I will suspend judgment on her for now also.

Shelob: Uncharacteristically, she has offered little insightful analysis to date. Her only real suspicion has been directed towards Garin, and that was vaguely expressed. Her vote too can be seen as a possible “safe” Wolfish vote (although there was still a theoretical possibility that Garin would be lynched).

I suppose it’s fair to say that Gil-Galad and Wayne have not revealed much so far in the way of their suspicions either. But it’s also fair to say that this is not unusual for them. Perhaps the same may be said of Valier and Naria too. And, as I have said, I am wary of suspecting anyone simply on the basis of their traditional pattern of behaviour, however suspicious it may look on the face of it.

I am more concerned over those from whom I would expect more, particularly Shelob. I am mistrustful of those who say a lot, but reveal little and she strikes me as being very much in this category at the moment.

In any event, I will be expecting more from all of these villagers today. And, before I get accused of telling the Wolves how to act, it is only by forcing them to participate more and, more importantly, to commit themselves by putting forward theories, that we will have any hope of spotting Wolfish patterns of behaviour.

[malkatoj]

Okay, I see my vote for Wayne has made me look suspicious. Why? On the first day, is it not best to lynch an unknown? Wayne always is an unknown, very difficult to read, and usually gets lynched eventually. Killing him early prevents us from getting distracted and killing him later on, when we have more evidence.

Cailin:

Something about Garin is making me nervous anyway – he seems uncharacteristically quiet and eager to hide behind theories proposed by others.

Though I agree here, I'm also inclined to think, like Wayne and Gil, it's just Garin being Garin--in the last game (the last one I played) he acted in this manner as well.

I think the people who voted for Abercrombie should be payed close attention to. That's SpM, TGWBS, Spawn, Aiwendil, and Kath. I'm most suspicious of the last three, since their votes (a) are easy, since there's already suspicion there, and (b) set Crombie's death in stone.

Since I doubt all three of those people are wolves, I'd like to point out Shelob's vote (if it hasn't been done already, I've looked over everything but might have missed it). Since she's the only one who voted Garin, it's not getting a lot of attention--we tend to pay more attention to the bandwagons, and I've no doubt she knows this. Her vote is pretty safe in that, as I said above, Garin is pretty much an unknown, and there was no chance of his being killed so it went under everyone's radar. I'm not completely convinced that she's a wolf, but it seems very possible (and, considering past games and the fact that she's alive, likely).

Since I've no idea whether I'll be on again today (silly school), I'll cast my vote now. If I do get a chance, I'll come back and look over everything, throw in whatever insight I have at the time, and probably apologize for voting earlier than necessary. Though it's unlikely.

++Aiwendil

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

What's happened toDay?

Kath: Defends herself against mormegil's suspicions.

Valier: l¨Laments Aiwendil despite how he treated a coconut tree, disagrees with Saucy's policy, says that sometimes it's just as good to vote without a reason than with one. However, agrees that players should give a reason for their vote.
(... ?)

Goes on about "validity".

"I thought in this game that everyone had picked fun occupations and it would be more laid back..I was wrong!" ~Valier

Yes, we take it quite seriously when our innocent friends get slaughtered. (Sorry for the OOC, but: Usually the occupations are just something that the mod uses in his narrations. We don't take this as seriously as it may seem, but the villagers want to get the wolves killed and vice versa, and it won't happen if we're only joking.)

Gil: Doesn't trust the law although doesn't want to offend Saucy.

Cailín: Kind of understands that Abercrombie got lynched, mildly attacks mormegil, lists the votes, says that Day 1's vote gatherers are usually innocent, but isn't sure about Valier. Mentiones Shelob and Glirdan, but doesn't find them suspicious now. Says we should definitely look at Naria. Thinks Aiwendil was killed because he seemed intelligent and didn't really accuse anyone. Didn't find Aiwendil's behaviour Seerish.

Also, she defends Kath, but says that something's not right with her, mostly agrees with Saucy's policy and wonders his suspicion of Glirdan, says the "Triangle thing" should be forgotten, is afraid the loudmouths, says that if there was a wolf voting Abercrombie, it's TGWBS or spawn. If Wayne's innocent, malkatoj's suspicious, and if Valier's innocent, Garin's suspicious. Accepts morm's vote for Valier, but feels uneasy about Garin anyway. Says Aiwendil's death might point to SpM, thinks we should still look at those who voted for Abercrombie.

Saucy: Wonders if Kath or especially TGWBS or spawn could be a wolf, but hasn't much reason to think they are, says that if Valier's a wolf, it makes Kath very suspicious. Based on "safe" or "throwaway" votes, suspects Shelob, Glirdan, Naria and Valier as possible wolves, but doubts the wolves would have acted like that. Says that we shouldn't lynch people who contribute little just because of that, answers TGWBS' question about the "trap" which Kath kind of fell for, but doesn't want to vote Kath just because of that although it might mean something in the future. Aiwendil's death might point to Kath or Glirdan.

Glirdan: Is increasingly suspicious of SpM, agrees with Cailín why Aiwendil was killed, says we're back at square one.

Shelob: Thinks Aiwendil was killed in order to lead us astray, disagrees with Saucy and debated with him about Glirdan and Kath.

Nilp: Thinks Cailín's analysis of Aiwendil's death is adequate, wonders how fast Abercrombie got the votes, but trusts most of the people who voted for her. Poses a question about the smaller bandwagons. Suspects malkatoj, Garin and Glirdan based on the voting, votes for malkatoj.

Márcolië: Thinks that basically we all are suspicious and thinks Aiwendil's death was supposed to make us suspect Formndacil, Wayne and Valier or to cast suspicion on Glirdan, doesn't find Glirdan guilty, though.

mormegil: Agrees with SpM, suspects Glirdan and Kath, wants to look closer at Valier and Cailín.

Garin: Says he can't tell much of Aiwendil's death, but the "throwaway voters" should be watched closely, is tempted to vote for Valier, talks about hiding behind characters.

TGWBS: Lists the votes.

spawn: Agrees with morm on Kath's behaviour and makes a case against her, can't tell much of the votes yet, would like to know was Kath cross-posting with Aiwendil, somewhat agrees with Saucy on the policy.


Somehow I'm now starting to feel more uneasy about Shelob and Cailín. I'll go looking back at their posts now and tell if I find something.

edit: Saucy and malkatoj's last posts aren't on my list.