Tol-in-Gaurhoth XVII: The Saga Continues to Continue quite Continuously

[Gil-Galad]

now i am seriously doubting the law... no offence of course Saucey-man



(( sorry, yesterday i was gone all day helping my brother move and the most of the day my interent was down))

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Gil-Galad

now i am seriously doubting the law...

On the contrary, it is precisely because the village resorted to a lynch mob mentality, rather than applying the rigorous tenets of the law, that an innocent villager died yesterday. I counselled against it, but to no avail.

I rue my own part in Abercrombie's death bitterly, as voting to kill one of our number on such thin evidence goes against all that I have been taught. But little did I expect her to attract so many votes after I had cast my own vote for her.

Ah well, perhaps the voting record will be of some use. here it is:

1. Formendacil for Valier (Valier-1)
2. Waynethe Goblin for Formendacil (Valier-1; Formendacil-1)
3. Nilpaurion for Nilpaurion (Valier-1; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-1)
4. Valier for WaynetheGoblin (Valier-1; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-1, Wayne-1)
5. AbercrombieofRohan for Nilpaurion (Valier-1; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-1)
6. Cailin for WaynetheGoblin (Valier-1; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2)
7. Mormegil for Valier (Valier-2; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2)
8. Saucepan Man for AbercrombieofRohan (Valier-2; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2, Abercrombie-1)
9. TGWBS for AbercrombieofRohan (Valier-2; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2, Abercrombie-2)
10. Garin for Valier (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2, Abercrombie-2)
11. Spawn for Abercrombie (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2, Abercrombie-3)
12. Aiwendil for Abercrombie (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2, Abercrombie-4)
13. Kath for Abercrombie (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2, Abercrombie-5)
14. Shelob for Garin (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2, Abercrombie-5, Garin-1)
15. Malkatoj for WaynetheGoblin (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-3, Abercrombie-5, Garin-1)
16. Glirdan for SpM (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-3, Abercrombie-5, Garin-1, SpM-1)
17. Naria for Nilpaurion (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-3, Wayne-3, Abercrombie-5, Garin-1, SpM-1)

Did not vote: Márcolië Lamen and Gil-Galad.

Make of it what you will. I will be back later with my own thoughts.

[Cailín]

Poor Aiwendil. And Crombie. Two innocent villagers already lost…

I more or less understand why there was wagoning against Crombie yesterDay, and yet I feel I have to point something out. Mormegil, I get what you were trying to say yesterDay now. And obviously, I even agreed with you, at least, said the same thing using different words. However, I find it quite hypocritical that you first accuse Malka and me because we were ‘going for the easy kill’ (I’m not quite sure what that means anyway – surely you would never find killing easy?) and then you state you wish the weirdos out of the way first, too. I’m not saying I would vote for you because of this, but I rather demand an explanation, because by targeting Malka and me you might also have been going for easy kills (and voting for Valier does not make you appear any less guilty).

Um, yeah, aside from mildly attacking Mormegil, here follows a brief voting analysis:

Formendacil > Valier
WayneTheGoblin > Formendacil
Nilpaurion > Nilpaurion
Valier > WayneTheGoblin
Abercrombie > Nilpaurion
Cailín > WayneTheGoblin
mormegil > Valier
The Saucepan Man > Abercrombie
TGWBS > Abercrombie
Garin > Valier
Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant > Abercrombie
Aiwendil > Abercrombie
Kath > Abercrombie
Shelob > Garin
Malkatoj > WayneTheGoblin
Glirdan > The Saucepan Man
Naria > Nilpaurion

Aiwendil broke the tie in favour of Abercrombie (or not really in favour I suppose), which would normally be suspicious, yet the wolves chose to kill him anyway. That is rather odd. Normally, the people who gather many votes on Day 1 are all innocents, but I’m not sure whether Valier was not a really lucky guess.
Shelob's vote for Garin stands out and so does Glirdan’s vote for SpM, but not in a way that makes me immediately think them wolvish. For now. Naria voted for Nilpaurion, which is a safe vote I suppose, especially at that time, so we should definitely look into that. Further, I am now going to check Aiwendil's posts to see if there was any other reason for the wolves to kill him so early, other than that he might very well have become a threat later on.

Oh I am about to cross-post with Saucy, so you'd better check his sum-up of the votes: it is much more detailed.

[Cailín]

Aiwendil's posts:

Mostly it’s just guessing and reasoning and waiting for evidence. He seemed quite keen on voting records and hoped, along with most of us, voting would tell us something tomorrow. He neither thought Abercrombie nor Valier particularly guilty, but saw some sense in Saucy's reasoning. He thought Glirdan’s Form – Wayne – Valier connection-theory sounded interesting. Nothing that points to Seerism or any other Gift. I think he was killed because he seemed intelligent and would likely become a danger to the wolves later on, and because he did not really accuse anyone, but rather chose to wait till more evidence was available. I cannot think of anything else, please point it out if I have missed anything.

Well, I’m getting quite sleepy by now. I hope you will all manage without me until tomorrow morning (that is – morning in my world under the water).

I shall try to come up with some theories when I feel less hazy again.

[The Saucepan Man]

A few things that occur to me from the things said and the votes cast yesterday.

Following my own vote for Abercrombie, there were four votes for her in relatively quick succession. Of those still living, these votes were cast by TGWBS, dancing spawn and Kath. Spawn brought her level with Valier, while Kath sealed her fate (although there were still up to 6 votes still to be cast at that stage). Could there be a Wolf there? I doubt a Wolf would vote for an innocent when it looked like she was going to die (and be revealed as innocent), which would point more towards TGWBS and spawn, although I have little other reason to suspect either of them at present.

If Valier turns out to be a Wolf, then Kath's vote for Abercrombie will start to look very suspicious.

There were a few votes which might be described as "throwaway" votes at the end there. At the time cast, the votes of Shelob, Glirdan and Naria were unlikely to result in the death of anyone, and (assuming that there was no Wolf in danger) would have been "safe" votes for Wolves. Possibly even Wolf on Wolf votes (although that obviously does not apply as far as Glirdan's vote is concerned ).

Valier and Naria both voted with little or no explanation. Valier's vote for Wayne was one which would be quite easy to explain if he died and turned out to be innocent, while Naria's was a safe "throwaway" vote. I am not sure how much store to set by this, though, as I would expect the Wolves to go out of their way to justify their votes.

Kath has sought to explain her vote for Abercrombie today. I still find it strange, however, that she expressed suspicion of me, analysed a few other villagers, and then cast a vote for someone completely different on the basis of what others had said (and for the person who I, her suspect, had voted for).

There was some discussion yesterday concerning what we should do about those who arouse suspicion by their very nature, but who contribute little to our discussions. I think that it was spawn who suggested that we should have a policy on this. I agree. My own view is that we should not be voting for people just because they are behaving in the way that they always behave. And unless we really have nothing to go on, we should not be voting for people on the basis that they contribute little. The reason being that they are just as likely to be a Gifted as any of us. No one should be voting for anyone unless they have some kind of a valid reason for doing so, and that does not include acting in a way that makes you suspicious when that is the way they always act.

Finally, for now, a response to TGWBS' question:

SpM redeems himself a little in my eyes both with his vote, and his claim that his suggestion of putting himself about the law was "bait." Though bait for what, I don't know. Care to extrapolate?

I deliberately asserted that I was above suspicion, knowing that it was a ridiculous thing to say, so ridiculous in fact that most people would just ignore it. My thought was that only those who were looking for some reason to cast suspicion on me would pick up on it. Since I know that I am innocent, that would suggest possible Wolfish behaviour to me. A few people commented on it, but only Kath made something of an issue of it (and, indeed, it seems to have led her to cast suspicion on me). It is not much, I accept, and I would not vote for her solely based on that, but it might mean something in the days to come.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Cailín

I think [Aiwendil] was killed because he seemed intelligent and would likely become a danger to the wolves later on, and because he did not really accuse anyone, but rather chose to wait till more evidence was available.

I think this the most likely explanation.

It is possibsle that it was a clumsy attempt to frame Valier, Formendacil and/or Wayne, given that he expressed interest in Glirdan's crazy triumvirate theory. But then, why not kill Glirdan or Kath (who also saw some attraction in the theory)? Why not indeed? Hmmm ...

[Shelob]

But then, why not kill Glirdan or Kath (who also saw some attraction in the theory)? Why not indeed? Hmmm ...

The most obvious reason "why not", and the one you're "Hmmm" seems to favour, would be that they were wolves. Doesn't that seem overly perfect and nice? It's far more likely that if this were an attempt to frame Valier/Form/Wayne then killing Glirdan or Kath would also draw attention to a real wolf. It seems to me that with this kill they'd either want to follow through on hints/suspicions of a gifted villager or kill someone who would get us looking in the wrong direction.

Assuming that that's the case we can probably rule out that the wolves thought they'd found a gifted in Aiwendil. Which means they're Probably* trying to send us in the wrong direction. If they chose the Valier/Form/Wyane trio to cast suspicion on then clearly killing someone who seemed to agree with it would be a good way to cast said suspicion. However if they also killed someone who had a real wolf in their suspicions, or someone with whom a real wolf has alligned themselves killing that person would also bring into the spotlight the real wolf they're associated with. Aiwendil was probably just misfortunate enough to be in a position where the wolves could kill him without putting any of their number in danger. The safest kill which still accomplished something.

(*It's a matter of the Bluff/Double Bluff, personally I doubt it's worth it for them to put any of their number in danger so early but since it's possible we shouldn't discount it completely)

[Glirdan]

Alas!! Those voices in my head were trying to tell me someone was missing!! To bad they were saying it was Nilp who the Wolves attacked. Maybe I should stop listening to those voices. They're starting to creep me out. And out woodwright is dead!! This is indeed a sad Day. Although I didn't quite like Aiwendil, he was one whom I never suspected. We need to find these tortoises...I mean Woles quickly!!

I deliberately asserted that I was above suspicion, knowing that it was a ridiculous thing to say, so ridiculous in fact that most people would just ignore it. My thought was that only those who were looking for some reason to cast suspicion on me would pick up on it. Since I know that I am innocent, that would suggest possible Wolfish behaviour to me. A few people commented on it, but only Kath made something of an issue of it (and, indeed, it seems to have led her to cast suspicion on me). It is not much, I accept, and I would not vote for her solely based on that, but it might mean something in the days to come.

Well SpM, I must say that that was a smart and daring move and that I did question it when I first saw it. However, you could very well being pulling a double bluff on us and I wouldn't put it past you to do that. You're definetly smart enough to pull it off. That just made me even more uneasy about you.

I must agree with Cailin's theory on why the Wolves attacked Aiwendil. He was smart and also not under suspicion. The perfect target. By attacking him, they left us no clues pointing towards anyone in particular and leaving us back at square one.

I'm going to go back and scan through some of the post's left by the deceased. I shall be back later.

*RL Comment* If I'm not back, it's because I got kicked off the computer and I won't be posting much for the next few Days because I go back to school starting tommorrow. Don't take my absence as suspicious. *RL Comment Ended*

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Glirdan

However, you could very well being pulling a double bluff on us and I wouldn't put it past you to do that.

How could it work as a double bluff? It hardly works as the single bluff that I intended it to be.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Shelob

The most obvious reason "why not", and the one you're "Hmmm" seems to favour, would be that they were wolves. Doesn't that seem overly perfect and nice?

Quite possibly. But it is interesting how Glirdan put forward this theory at a time when Formendacil, Valier and Wayne each had one vote and only two other votes had been cast. Wayne and Valier go on to garner quite a few votes. And then, overnight, one of those who saw some attraction in the theory gets killed.

[Valier]

Originally Posted by SPM

There was some discussion yesterday concerning what we should do about those who arouse suspicion by their very nature, but who contribute little to our discussions. I think that it was spawn who suggested that we should have a policy on this. I agree. My own view is that we should not be voting for people just because they are behaving in the way that they always behave. And unless we really have nothing to go on, we should not be voting for people on the basis that they contribute little. The reason being that they are just as likely to be a Gifted as any of us. No one should be voting for anyone unless they have some kind of a valid reason for doing so, and that does not include acting in a way that makes you suspicious when that is the way they always act.

I totally disagree on your "Policy" some of us are not as anylitical as others and the only time votes are validated is if the person killed is a wolf. Other than that reasons for voting are just feelings one gets from reading others posts and from the position they are in. I thought in this game that everyone had picked fun occupations and it would be more laid back..I was wrong! The only reason any Ordo would vote for someone was because they thought they were a wolf, some times giving a reason why is no better than saying nothing.