Tol-in-Gaurhoth XVII: The Saga Continues to Continue quite Continuously - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Cailín · 02-04-2006, 08:02 AM

I wish I could come up with an intelligent plan to make a reasoned decision toDay, but so far, all I can think is throwing people in the water and see if they sink. I’m not sure whether it is wolvish to sink or not, but at least it will tell us something, right?

Random speculations and predictions:

mormegil- If Mormegil is not a wolf, we want to have him around. He makes shiny weapons and he insults random people. Both are nice traits when trying to find wolves. If he’s guilty, SpM will start a lynching campaign against him in about two days, so not to worry.
Garin- He’s been silent so far. If he’s a wolf, he’ll probably be truthful about it or accidentally leave a clue. We would be able to hear him trying to muffle his evil laugh of victory after each spoken word.
Nilpaurion Felagund- We lynch him today, tomorrow, sometime soon. Or the wolves attack him. Or he kills himself. I’m not worried.
dancing spawn of ungoliant- Now dancing spawn is someone who might be a dangerous wolf. Fortunately, everybody thinks so, so she will never get away with it.
The Saucepan Man- If he’s not killed by the wolves soon, we can lynch him out of sheer annoyance.
Aiwendil- Not sure what to make of this shady character.
AbercrombieOfRohan- Eager to make sense and eager to get serious. She gets away with everything, so I suppose we should consider lynching her soon. But then again, I always believe she’s the Hunter. It just fits, doesn’t it?
Shelob- She’ll be eaten during Night 2. If she’s a wolf, we’ll probably lose.
malkatoj- She’s always lupine. Let’s kill her now before she kills us all!
Gil-Galad- He thinks we shall lynch him toDay anyway, so I don’t suppose he’ll show up for voting again. If he’s a wolf, he will believe himself dead. Which is almost as good as having really lynched him.
Glirdan- If he’s a wolf, he’ll probably make some elaborate but extremely flawed plot, leading us to believe Naria is the Werebear, Meneltarmacil was actually the Seer and every single one of us is Cursed. If he’s not, we shall lynch him as an innocent. Probably before Day 5 is over.
Márcolië Lamen- If Márcolië Lamen is a wolf, we will never find out unless she’s shot by the Hunter. Or tries speaking in all capitals.
Formendacil- Right before the end of the game, we shall realise Formendacil is behind it all, like a very skilled puppeteer. We shall proceed to lynch him or he’ll reveal himself as the Seer.
Cailín- If she’s a wolf, she’ll probably get all her fellows lynched and then look smug in the end. Or make an enormous slip and get shot by the Hunter. But she’s not a wolf. She’s a mermaid.
Kath- The wolves will kill her toNight, believing she is the Ranger. Or the Cobbler. Or even if she’s a wolf herself. It hardly matters.
the guy who be short- If he’s a wolf, he will be trying so hard to seem like an ordinary he’ll end up killing himself during Nights. Accidentally, of course, but TGWBS is most capable of deluding himself.
WaynetheGoblin- He’s Wayne. What can I say?
Naria- Easy. If she votes for the same person three times in a row, she’s innocent.
Valier- I think we’re doomed if she is a wolf. Then again, she might admit it between giggles.

Um, yeah. This really is about the best I can do during Day 1. My initial inclination is to vote Wayne (or possibly someone really quiet and sneaky), if nothing interesting happens. I don’t like Wayne's vote for Formendacil (who admittedly gave the best-reasoned accusation so far

) and I fear we shall suspect him sooner or later anyway. But I shall watch developments with interest and I still hope someone might propose a grand, ambitious and perfect plan before the Day is done.

The problem is – people are randomly accusing, which doesn’t tell us much. However, voting always does. Voting is evidence. The only plan I can come up with is the usual: spread the voting. The wolves are likely to spread their votes as well and will probably avoid all jumping on the same bandwagon. I don't think they will dare casting a wolf-on-wolf vote if we spread the votes and don't start early bandwagons, since that would be far too risky and if we could ensure they never vote for each other, voting should tell us something within a Day or two. The only problem and serious danger is that we might lynch a Gifted. That would be bad.

02-04-2006, 08:02 AM	#27
Cailín Ghost Prince of Cardolan Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Lurking in the shadows. Posts: 711	I wish I could come up with an intelligent plan to make a reasoned decision toDay, but so far, all I can think is throwing people in the water and see if they sink. I’m not sure whether it is wolvish to sink or not, but at least it will tell us something, right? Random speculations and predictions: mormegil- If Mormegil is not a wolf, we want to have him around. He makes shiny weapons and he insults random people. Both are nice traits when trying to find wolves. If he’s guilty, SpM will start a lynching campaign against him in about two days, so not to worry. Garin- He’s been silent so far. If he’s a wolf, he’ll probably be truthful about it or accidentally leave a clue. We would be able to hear him trying to muffle his evil laugh of victory after each spoken word. Nilpaurion Felagund- We lynch him today, tomorrow, sometime soon. Or the wolves attack him. Or he kills himself. I’m not worried. dancing spawn of ungoliant- Now dancing spawn is someone who might be a dangerous wolf. Fortunately, everybody thinks so, so she will never get away with it. The Saucepan Man- If he’s not killed by the wolves soon, we can lynch him out of sheer annoyance. Aiwendil- Not sure what to make of this shady character. AbercrombieOfRohan- Eager to make sense and eager to get serious. She gets away with everything, so I suppose we should consider lynching her soon. But then again, I always believe she’s the Hunter. It just fits, doesn’t it? Shelob- She’ll be eaten during Night 2. If she’s a wolf, we’ll probably lose. malkatoj- She’s always lupine. Let’s kill her now before she kills us all! Gil-Galad- He thinks we shall lynch him toDay anyway, so I don’t suppose he’ll show up for voting again. If he’s a wolf, he will believe himself dead. Which is almost as good as having really lynched him. Glirdan- If he’s a wolf, he’ll probably make some elaborate but extremely flawed plot, leading us to believe Naria is the Werebear, Meneltarmacil was actually the Seer and every single one of us is Cursed. If he’s not, we shall lynch him as an innocent. Probably before Day 5 is over. Márcolië Lamen- If Márcolië Lamen is a wolf, we will never find out unless she’s shot by the Hunter. Or tries speaking in all capitals. Formendacil- Right before the end of the game, we shall realise Formendacil is behind it all, like a very skilled puppeteer. We shall proceed to lynch him or he’ll reveal himself as the Seer. Cailín- If she’s a wolf, she’ll probably get all her fellows lynched and then look smug in the end. Or make an enormous slip and get shot by the Hunter. But she’s not a wolf. She’s a mermaid. Kath- The wolves will kill her toNight, believing she is the Ranger. Or the Cobbler. Or even if she’s a wolf herself. It hardly matters. the guy who be short- If he’s a wolf, he will be trying so hard to seem like an ordinary he’ll end up killing himself during Nights. Accidentally, of course, but TGWBS is most capable of deluding himself. WaynetheGoblin- He’s Wayne. What can I say? Naria- Easy. If she votes for the same person three times in a row, she’s innocent. Valier- I think we’re doomed if she is a wolf. Then again, she might admit it between giggles. Um, yeah. This really is about the best I can do during Day 1. My initial inclination is to vote Wayne (or possibly someone really quiet and sneaky), if nothing interesting happens. I don’t like Wayne's vote for Formendacil (who admittedly gave the best-reasoned accusation so far ) and I fear we shall suspect him sooner or later anyway. But I shall watch developments with interest and I still hope someone might propose a grand, ambitious and perfect plan before the Day is done. The problem is – people are randomly accusing, which doesn’t tell us much. However, voting always does. Voting is evidence. The only plan I can come up with is the usual: spread the voting. The wolves are likely to spread their votes as well and will probably avoid all jumping on the same bandwagon. I don't think they will dare casting a wolf-on-wolf vote if we spread the votes and don't start early bandwagons, since that would be far too risky and if we could ensure they never vote for each other, voting should tell us something within a Day or two. The only problem and serious danger is that we might lynch a Gifted. That would be bad.