Tol-in-Gaurhoth XVII: The Saga Continues to Continue quite Continuously

[Cailín]

I wish I could come up with an intelligent plan to make a reasoned decision toDay, but so far, all I can think is throwing people in the water and see if they sink. I’m not sure whether it is wolvish to sink or not, but at least it will tell us something, right?

Random speculations and predictions:

mormegil- If Mormegil is not a wolf, we want to have him around. He makes shiny weapons and he insults random people. Both are nice traits when trying to find wolves. If he’s guilty, SpM will start a lynching campaign against him in about two days, so not to worry.
Garin- He’s been silent so far. If he’s a wolf, he’ll probably be truthful about it or accidentally leave a clue. We would be able to hear him trying to muffle his evil laugh of victory after each spoken word.
Nilpaurion Felagund- We lynch him today, tomorrow, sometime soon. Or the wolves attack him. Or he kills himself. I’m not worried.
dancing spawn of ungoliant- Now dancing spawn is someone who might be a dangerous wolf. Fortunately, everybody thinks so, so she will never get away with it.
The Saucepan Man- If he’s not killed by the wolves soon, we can lynch him out of sheer annoyance.
Aiwendil- Not sure what to make of this shady character.
AbercrombieOfRohan- Eager to make sense and eager to get serious. She gets away with everything, so I suppose we should consider lynching her soon. But then again, I always believe she’s the Hunter. It just fits, doesn’t it?
Shelob- She’ll be eaten during Night 2. If she’s a wolf, we’ll probably lose.
malkatoj- She’s always lupine. Let’s kill her now before she kills us all!
Gil-Galad- He thinks we shall lynch him toDay anyway, so I don’t suppose he’ll show up for voting again. If he’s a wolf, he will believe himself dead. Which is almost as good as having really lynched him.
Glirdan- If he’s a wolf, he’ll probably make some elaborate but extremely flawed plot, leading us to believe Naria is the Werebear, Meneltarmacil was actually the Seer and every single one of us is Cursed. If he’s not, we shall lynch him as an innocent. Probably before Day 5 is over.
Márcolië Lamen- If Márcolië Lamen is a wolf, we will never find out unless she’s shot by the Hunter. Or tries speaking in all capitals.
Formendacil- Right before the end of the game, we shall realise Formendacil is behind it all, like a very skilled puppeteer. We shall proceed to lynch him or he’ll reveal himself as the Seer.
Cailín- If she’s a wolf, she’ll probably get all her fellows lynched and then look smug in the end. Or make an enormous slip and get shot by the Hunter. But she’s not a wolf. She’s a mermaid.
Kath- The wolves will kill her toNight, believing she is the Ranger. Or the Cobbler. Or even if she’s a wolf herself. It hardly matters.
the guy who be short- If he’s a wolf, he will be trying so hard to seem like an ordinary he’ll end up killing himself during Nights. Accidentally, of course, but TGWBS is most capable of deluding himself.
WaynetheGoblin- He’s Wayne. What can I say?
Naria- Easy. If she votes for the same person three times in a row, she’s innocent.
Valier- I think we’re doomed if she is a wolf. Then again, she might admit it between giggles.

Um, yeah. This really is about the best I can do during Day 1. My initial inclination is to vote Wayne (or possibly someone really quiet and sneaky), if nothing interesting happens. I don’t like Wayne's vote for Formendacil (who admittedly gave the best-reasoned accusation so far ) and I fear we shall suspect him sooner or later anyway. But I shall watch developments with interest and I still hope someone might propose a grand, ambitious and perfect plan before the Day is done.

The problem is – people are randomly accusing, which doesn’t tell us much. However, voting always does. Voting is evidence. The only plan I can come up with is the usual: spread the voting. The wolves are likely to spread their votes as well and will probably avoid all jumping on the same bandwagon. I don't think they will dare casting a wolf-on-wolf vote if we spread the votes and don't start early bandwagons, since that would be far too risky and if we could ensure they never vote for each other, voting should tell us something within a Day or two. The only problem and serious danger is that we might lynch a Gifted. That would be bad.

[WaynetheGoblin]

I didnt vote for him for his early vote but for the person he voted for.
I voted for him because you never know what someone is going to be.

[malkatoj]

So after reading everything over, I think our best bet for today would be to lynch either Gil or Wayne. Though we can't know if they're wolves, they are distracting and it'd be better to have them out of the way before we get to a point where there's real evidence. Since I'm almost sure that Wayne is just being Wayne, I'm more inclined to worry about Gil, as either a cobbler or a wolf.

I'll be back later to vote, just in case anyone else comes on and gives something away, but that is where my suspicions lie for the moment.

[Glirdan]

Well, isn't it quiet. A little too quiet if I may say so.

I must say that I agree with malka on the fact that Wayne and Gil are being a kind of nuissance, but I don't think we should lynch them just because. And since you said that malka, it makes me think that perhaps you might be hiding a little furry secret. You saying that makes you seem anxious to be rid of two possible (more than likely they are) innocents. Care to explain yourself?

[Garin]

Since no one knows anyone on day one. (Except the lousy wolves, of course. They have already had a midnight snack together--Meneltarmacil) I decided to examine each villagers chosen role/occupation. It is rather useless and filled with conjecture but it should stimulate conversation. Please don't take it personally, remember I have no social skills. As for the people I seem to say are innocent, that too is fleeting. You probably just chose a normal, respectable trade.
mormegil- Elven smith... Smiths are a welcome commodity although you have always seemed more orcish than elvish.
Garin- Truffle hunter with a half a dozen pigs and no social manners. I bring you the black diamonds that taste so delicious, plus I carry a silver-headed staff with which to discipline my pigs and also brain werewolves.
Nilpaurion Felagund- Escaped thrall from Tol-in-Gaurhoth. I suppose we can trust the post- enslaved for now.
dancing spawn of ungoliant- Florist. I like flowers, and Spawn gives us them. Fine, for now.
The Saucepan Man- Earnest and learned young man of the law. I care not for advocates of the law but it is a noble profession, if you like noble professions. I don't.
Aiwendil- Old woodwright. Wood is good. Feel safe from my vote for now.
AbercrombieOfRohan- Mysterious lady who lives in the depths of the forest. Mysterious is not a welcome commodity in these lands, why the mystery and what are you hiding?
Shelob- Someone who recently washed ashore. Washed ashore at the same time werewolves arrive. Quite the coincidence, no?
malkatoj- Retired Miracle Man (who is not really a man) I don't believe in miracles, maybe you hope they will save your lycan behind.
Gil-Galad- Shape-Analyst. We are about to stone you, what do you think of these rocks? Oblong maybe?
Glirdan- Crazy guy down the street. Crazy is always a perfect cover for the furry, just admit it.
Márcolië Lamen- Second official 8th day adventist Pastafarian. I researched your role. It instantly puts you in cahoots with Abercrombie. Her Avatar reflects your beliefs. Is this some wolfish cult? EDIT: Aber apparently changed her image. So,never mind.
Formendacil- Village historian. Oh good, every town needs a boring guy. I am fine for now and will ignore your allegations.
Cailín- Deluded girl who believes she is a mermaid. Delusion is not something we need at this time. I enjoy mermaids as much as the next guy, but wanting to be part animal is quite suspect.
Kath- Local investigator into the paranormal. Chasing goblins instead of the rational world. Get in the real world please. I don't believe our village is about to be disemboweled by spirits. Though, I supposed the lycans are paranormal so perhaps you can prove useful
the guy who be short- Mermaid-catcher and fisherman. I was about to condemn you but you add fisherman to your occupation. This seems to make you less insane than others. I like fish, stick around wacko.
WaynetheGoblin- Town geek, wimp, and nerd. A true town geek would make our village rich and not on the brink of exctintion. What have you done for us lately?
Naria- Crazy old lady that thinks the marine life talks to her. Oh look! Another crazy person! Truly inspires suspicion. It could be a cover or maybe she is truly crazy.
Valier- Overly giggly coconut milker who only milks the coconuts while standing on her head. Well, that is just plain silly. I know little of the fruit you are milking and don't trust your odd habits. Would you prefer milk from your werewolf mama's teats?
I will hold my vote for later.
May the villagers win.

EDIT: fixed some italics and bolding

[mormegil]

I find it interesting that Malka and Calin seem eager to kill Gil and Wayne. They seem like easy targets and won't arouse too much suspicion if killed.

Originally Posted by Glirdan

Fifth. Morm's wish to be rid of all the lunatics, even though they be innocent, is rather unnerving. More innocents is better than more dead innocents and three Wolves still left. I will definetly watch you more carefully.

Nay, I'd rather have innocents that contribute to our society than a bunch of drains on society. Does this make me a wolf? No but it does make me somebody who wants to better our society, if you take my meaning. Some must die, and inevitably innocents as well. I'm thinking of the future of this village, what would you rather have around, a woodwright or some head standing coconut milker who giggles far too often? A high quality smith that makes great armor and weapons or a miracle man that's a woman who cannot perform miracles because she's 'retired'.

See my point?

[Valier]

Well I must vote early today because I have a lovely batch of coconuts that need squeezing, this will take up my whole afternoon.(Giggle)

++Wayne


Well I just have to say I don't like wimps, or nerds or well most things besides lovely coconuts.(Giggle) The Goblin must go! (Giggle)

[AbercrombieOfRohan]

Oh dear. Well, I'm afraid that I will not be able to get back on to vote at all today, so I must vote now.

I too am in favour of lynching those who tend towards being unknowns (Nilp, Gil and Wayne) for the longer we leave them alive, the longer we'll regret it. However, since there is already a vote cast for Wayne, I'll leave him alone for now. Gil's cries of his innocence have lead me to believe that he too is innocent. Best go with the one that has already provided "conclusive" evidence of his guilt:

++NILPAURION FELAGUND

I'm sorry if that's a random vote, but I'm afraid it's the best I can do.

[Cailín]

I find it interesting that Malka and Calin seem eager to kill Gil and Wayne. They seem like easy targets and won't arouse too much suspicion if killed.

That is exactly the reason why I would not like to kill them, Morm. Their deaths will tell us little and voting for any of them is not immediately suspicious. However, like you, I'm thinking what's in the interest of this village and I'm not going after someone just because he or she is not an easy target. If you are lynched toDay and found innocent, I'd be more annoyed with myself than if it is Wayne, even though that may sound rather harsh. Besides, you are able to provide us with far more evidence against you, so that's always good.

Nay, I'd rather have innocents that contribute to our society than a bunch of drains on society. Does this make me a wolf? No but it does make me somebody who wants to better our society, if you take my meaning.

There's a word for that attitude.

--

We're still waiting to hear from Márcolië Lamen. (RL: I'll let you all know now I will be forced to vote within the next hour. Hey, it's Saturday night. Where do you think I'm heading?)

[Glirdan]

Well, we already have five votes.

Valier - 1 (Formendacil)
Formendacil - 1 (Wayne)
Nilpaurion - 2 (Nilp and Abercrombie)
Wayne - 1 (Valier)

Notice how Form voted Valier, Valier for Wayne and Wayne for Form? That seems highly suspicious to me. Do we have a possible trio here and they all let their hands sho early? Or is there maybe one or two Wolves hidden amongst that bunch? Or are all three innocent and caught in a web of doom? I highly doubt that all three are Wolves and out of all three, I find Form seems the least suspicious. What do you all have to say to this little bit of information?

[Aiwendil]

With a total of twenty villagers, three of whom are wolves, chances are good that at least one of those who has voted so far is a wolf.

I agree with Glirdan that the Wayne-Formendacil-Valier reciprocation is interesting, even if it does seem a clumsy move for a group of wolves.

With four people voted against already, I'm inclined to say that we should add, at most, only one or two more to the list. Then chances will be good that at least one wolf is among them, and people's voting records may begin to tell us something.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Aiwendil

I noticed your "Me too Nilp" when you posted it, but I still cannot find Nilpaurion's. Would you care to put me out of my misery?

Post 32 ironically I cannot find SpM's quote so if you could help me out.

I've often thought of doing this but haven't yet.

[Aiwendil]

Thanks. Saucepan's was post 107.