WWJ III - Nan Qualinmerë: Death Wish Valley - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Valier · 01-28-2006, 05:17 PM

Hi everyone! I've been gone all day and I have just read through the posts.
There have been some good analyses so far.

I am not sure about the double lynch, but it could open up alot of windows into who are the real wolves,(If it isn't the two we lynch)
But that's pretty risky, seeing as how we have lost so many innocents already.

Being a newbie as well, I don't really know how to pick up on as many things as some of the rest of you, But I have some time now if anyone wants help with analysis' or any thing. If my brain has some coaxing I usually can pick up on some hints that may give the wolves away.

Roa_Aoife · 01-28-2006, 05:23 PM

Valier, I'm a newbie too, so if you'de like to help with analysis, I'm actaully planning to analyze everyone who's left. If you wouldn't mind analyzing me, since I can't do that myself objectively, I'd appreciate it. Also, Kath, if you don't mind. Then we'll have the three most experianced players. After I finish Ang, I'm moving onto you. You can take Valier if you don't mind.

Roa_Aoife · 01-28-2006, 05:27 PM

Ang Analysis
Day 1
Starts with nothing post. Explains that he will be absent later in the day. Votes early for Gandalf. Changes vote to Thin (violently). Then suggests that Thin is the seer.

Day 2
Very determined in Shelob’s guilt. Tries to turn Garin and Shelob on each other. Defends against Shelob’s accusations. Suggests Shelob is a target. Votes Kath. Admits that tar’s defense of Shelob is strong. Retracts Kath vote, votes Roa.

Day 3
Expresses regret in not defending Shelob better, and voting for Roa. Suggests that Kath’s accusations of Garin are faulty. Votes Garin. Mentions that if Garin is guilty, Kath is innocent. Suspects Wayne and Gandalf. Suggests Wayne is innocent. Restates suspicion of Kath. Suspects Valesse. Suggests that votes stay the same after Crombie’s reveal in order to keep game play normal. Asks mods to end day early.

Day 4
Silence thus far.

Kath · 01-28-2006, 05:29 PM

Quote:

Tries to turn Garin and Shelob on each other.

Now that's interesting. Would you mind expanding on that point Roa?

Roa_Aoife · 01-28-2006, 05:33 PM

Okay. Ang has a lot of inconsistent behavior. It could be a wolf trying to jump around, it could be an innocent that isn't afraid to change his mind. He throws a lot of looks your way Kath, which makes me wonder if that's why you requested this analysis. His vote for Thin seems to exonerate him.

Kath · 01-28-2006, 05:37 PM

Well that depends Roa, when did Ang vote for Lommy? If he was one of the first then yes it may exonerate him, but if it was later then no, he may have hopped onto the bandwagon to avoid suspicion. Any idea which it was?

Gandalf_the _white · 01-28-2006, 06:01 PM

kath i can see what your thinking with the double lynch idea (even if it does involve me!! lol ) and it makes sense except for the fact of if me and wayne are both innocent then you are losing two innocents at once and the wolves then have more chance of swinging the next vote

Roa_Aoife · 01-28-2006, 06:05 PM

During Day 2, Ang actually suggested that the two accused analyze each other. And he was the 2 to vote for Thin.

Now then:
Valier Analysis
Day 1
Starts by pointing at tar. Copies Roa’s post after three votes fro Eomer, then says she didn’t see the other Eomer votes. Votes Wayne.

Day 2
Mentions loss of ranger, and hopes “the seer and the hunter make good choices.” Suggests danger to the seer. Throws suspicion at Fea. Suggests Shelob’s guilt. Votes Shelob.

Day 3
Suspicious of Wayne and Gandalf. Votes Wayne, promises explanation.

Day 4
Agrees to do analysis.

Valier · 01-28-2006, 06:04 PM

Analysis on Roa

Day 1
- Late comer
- Sternly addresses the early voters for Eomer
- Corrects Tar on voting order
- Suspects Eomer could be a wolf
- Comments on people forming relationships
- Accuses Fea of wolfish behavior
- Lashes out at Fea for being snippy
- Votes for Shelob

Day2
-First poster of the day
- Says she knew Eomer was innocent yesterday?
- Defends her vote for Shelob
- Says everyone should vote for who they think is a wolf,not who everyone else thinks is a wolf
- Votes for Shelob

Day3
- Second to post
- Says Tar seemed to shine a light on Garin
- Suspects Garin
- Tells Kath and other accusers to look at post #161
- Says she's voting for Garin
- Tells Garin hes rude and out of line
- Suggests looking at who Garin hasn't drawn attention to
- Finds pattern involving Garin and Wayne
- Attacks Garin again
-Says to kill Garin now and get the day over with
- Votes for Wayne
Day 4(so far)
- Does lots of analysis

That's all I got so far I haven't put anything together yet so I'll read what you guys have done.

Valesse · 01-28-2006, 06:21 PM

Let us perhaps chose only one of the silent pair?

I really don't know who's a wolf right now or not. There are plenty of people in my mind that could be, but perhaps its only my imagination playing tricks on me. Right now I'm cross examining the observances because thats the kind of paranoid pshycopath I am.

And suddenly I am confused... Gandalf hasn't vanished yet? Its near or past midnight in England isn't it? What happened to limited time?

Gandalf_the _white · 01-28-2006, 06:23 PM

i'm round my grans and she always lets me on, unfortunatly i don't come round very often
btw has wayne turned up at all today? i can't see any posts from him

Kath · 01-28-2006, 05:24 PM

Nice to see you Valier. I agree the double lynch is risky. My concern is that if we don't get rid of these two we will continue to be hung up on them tomorrow.

If we lynched Wayne today and Gandalf tomorrow and the wolves kill an innocent in the Night that makes 3 innocents dead if Wayne and Gandalf are not wolves.

If we lynch them both today and the wolves kill an innocent in the night that again makes 3 innocents dead (same circumstances pending) BUT that means tomorrow we have more chance of getting a wolf and the wolves have one less night to kill.

Wait, that doesn't really make sense. Erm, ok if we do a double lynch then the wolves have one kill, tonight. If we lynch them on separate days that means the wolves have two nights to kill.

If anyone doesn't get this I'm sorry. It makes such sense in my head but I can't explain it! Basically it is almost to our advantage to do the double.

01-28-2006, 05:23 PM	#2
Roa_Aoife Ghost Prince of Cardolan Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: Someday, I'll rule all of it. Posts: 1,696	Valier, I'm a newbie too, so if you'de like to help with analysis, I'm actaully planning to analyze everyone who's left. If you wouldn't mind analyzing me, since I can't do that myself objectively, I'd appreciate it. Also, Kath, if you don't mind. Then we'll have the three most experianced players. After I finish Ang, I'm moving onto you. You can take Valier if you don't mind. __________________ We can't all be Roas* when it comes to analysing...* -Lommy I didn't say you're evil, Roa, I said you're exasperating. -Nerwen

01-28-2006, 05:27 PM	#3
Roa_Aoife Ghost Prince of Cardolan Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: Someday, I'll rule all of it. Posts: 1,696	Ang Analysis Day 1 Starts with nothing post. Explains that he will be absent later in the day. Votes early for Gandalf. Changes vote to Thin (violently). Then suggests that Thin is the seer. Day 2 Very determined in Shelob’s guilt. Tries to turn Garin and Shelob on each other. Defends against Shelob’s accusations. Suggests Shelob is a target. Votes Kath. Admits that tar’s defense of Shelob is strong. Retracts Kath vote, votes Roa. Day 3 Expresses regret in not defending Shelob better, and voting for Roa. Suggests that Kath’s accusations of Garin are faulty. Votes Garin. Mentions that if Garin is guilty, Kath is innocent. Suspects Wayne and Gandalf. Suggests Wayne is innocent. Restates suspicion of Kath. Suspects Valesse. Suggests that votes stay the same after Crombie’s reveal in order to keep game play normal. Asks mods to end day early. Day 4 Silence thus far. __________________ We can't all be Roas* when it comes to analysing...* -Lommy I didn't say you're evil, Roa, I said you're exasperating. -Nerwen

01-28-2006, 05:33 PM	#5
Roa_Aoife Ghost Prince of Cardolan Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: Someday, I'll rule all of it. Posts: 1,696	Okay. Ang has a lot of inconsistent behavior. It could be a wolf trying to jump around, it could be an innocent that isn't afraid to change his mind. He throws a lot of looks your way Kath, which makes me wonder if that's why you requested this analysis. His vote for Thin seems to exonerate him. __________________ We can't all be Roas* when it comes to analysing...* -Lommy I didn't say you're evil, Roa, I said you're exasperating. -Nerwen

01-28-2006, 05:37 PM	#6
Kath Everlasting Whiteness Join Date: Jan 2004 Location: Perusing the laminated book of dreams Posts: 4,533	Well that depends Roa, when did Ang vote for Lommy? If he was one of the first then yes it may exonerate him, but if it was later then no, he may have hopped onto the bandwagon to avoid suspicion. Any idea which it was? __________________ “If more of us valued food and cheer and song above hoarded gold, it would be a merrier world.”

01-28-2006, 06:05 PM	#8
Roa_Aoife Ghost Prince of Cardolan Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: Someday, I'll rule all of it. Posts: 1,696	During Day 2, Ang actually suggested that the two accused analyze each other. And he was the 2 to vote for Thin. Now then: Valier Analysis Day 1 Starts by pointing at tar. Copies Roa’s post after three votes fro Eomer, then says she didn’t see the other Eomer votes. Votes Wayne. Day 2 Mentions loss of ranger, and hopes “the seer and the hunter make good choices.” Suggests danger to the seer. Throws suspicion at Fea. Suggests Shelob’s guilt. Votes Shelob. Day 3 Suspicious of Wayne and Gandalf. Votes Wayne, promises explanation. Day 4 Agrees to do analysis. __________________ We can't all be Roas* when it comes to analysing...* -Lommy I didn't say you're evil, Roa, I said you're exasperating. -Nerwen

01-28-2006, 05:17 PM	#1
Valier Twisted Taleswapper Join Date: Dec 2005 Location: somewhere between sanity and insanity Posts: 1,706	Hi everyone! I've been gone all day and I have just read through the posts. There have been some good analyses so far. I am not sure about the double lynch, but it could open up alot of windows into who are the real wolves,(If it isn't the two we lynch) But that's pretty risky, seeing as how we have lost so many innocents already. Being a newbie as well, I don't really know how to pick up on as many things as some of the rest of you, But I have some time now if anyone wants help with analysis' or any thing. If my brain has some coaxing I usually can pick up on some hints that may give the wolves away. __________________ grand return?........

01-28-2006, 06:01 PM	#7
Gandalf_the _white Wight Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: In crazy captions waving an angry fist at the outside world Posts: 155	kath i can see what your thinking with the double lynch idea (even if it does involve me!! lol ) and it makes sense except for the fact of if me and wayne are both innocent then you are losing two innocents at once and the wolves then have more chance of swinging the next vote

01-28-2006, 06:04 PM	#9
Valier Twisted Taleswapper Join Date: Dec 2005 Location: somewhere between sanity and insanity Posts: 1,706	Analysis on Roa Day 1 - Late comer - Sternly addresses the early voters for Eomer - Corrects Tar on voting order - Suspects Eomer could be a wolf - Comments on people forming relationships - Accuses Fea of wolfish behavior - Lashes out at Fea for being snippy - Votes for Shelob Day2 -First poster of the day - Says she knew Eomer was innocent yesterday? - Defends her vote for Shelob - Says everyone should vote for who they think is a wolf,not who everyone else thinks is a wolf - Votes for Shelob Day3 - Second to post - Says Tar seemed to shine a light on Garin - Suspects Garin - Tells Kath and other accusers to look at post #161 - Says she's voting for Garin - Tells Garin hes rude and out of line - Suggests looking at who Garin hasn't drawn attention to - Finds pattern involving Garin and Wayne - Attacks Garin again -Says to kill Garin now and get the day over with - Votes for Wayne Day 4(so far) - Does lots of analysis That's all I got so far I haven't put anything together yet so I'll read what you guys have done. __________________ grand return?........

01-28-2006, 06:21 PM	#10
Valesse Ghost Prince of Cardolan Join Date: Aug 2005 Location: \|Away Posts: 614	Let us perhaps chose only one of the silent pair? I really don't know who's a wolf right now or not. There are plenty of people in my mind that could be, but perhaps its only my imagination playing tricks on me. Right now I'm cross examining the observances because thats the kind of paranoid pshycopath I am. And suddenly I am confused... Gandalf hasn't vanished yet? Its near or past midnight in England isn't it? What happened to limited time? __________________ "Loo, what sholde a man in thyse dayes now wryte, 'egges' or 'eyren'?" - Caxton, Eneydos

01-28-2006, 06:23 PM	#11
Gandalf_the _white Wight Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: In crazy captions waving an angry fist at the outside world Posts: 155	i'm round my grans and she always lets me on, unfortunatly i don't come round very often btw has wayne turned up at all today? i can't see any posts from him

01-28-2006, 05:24 PM	#12
Kath Everlasting Whiteness Join Date: Jan 2004 Location: Perusing the laminated book of dreams Posts: 4,533	Nice to see you Valier. I agree the double lynch is risky. My concern is that if we don't get rid of these two we will continue to be hung up on them tomorrow. If we lynched Wayne today and Gandalf tomorrow and the wolves kill an innocent in the Night that makes 3 innocents dead if Wayne and Gandalf are not wolves. If we lynch them both today and the wolves kill an innocent in the night that again makes 3 innocents dead (same circumstances pending) BUT that means tomorrow we have more chance of getting a wolf and the wolves have one less night to kill. Wait, that doesn't really make sense. Erm, ok if we do a double lynch then the wolves have one kill, tonight. If we lynch them on separate days that means the wolves have two nights to kill. If anyone doesn't get this I'm sorry. It makes such sense in my head but I can't explain it! Basically it is almost to our advantage to do the double. __________________ “If more of us valued food and cheer and song above hoarded gold, it would be a merrier world.”