Tol-in-Gaurhoth XVI: No man is an Island

[Amanaduial the archer]

ARGH, hate this site, just made a hugely long post and then it got deleted gah gah gah!!!

....*deep breaths*

Right.

From the beginning again then... *weeps*

Gurthang, I'm afraid I find the whole of your last post really rather baffling. Maybe it's just me. You say that Valier was on entirely the wrong track - what, simply because she voted for Nilp? Fair, I suppose - but there are deeper considerations, the most obvious ones being that Nilp was by no stretch of the imagination the only person she suspected, even if he was the one who she finally plumped for for the chop. I feel somewhat more inclined to go with Kuru on this one; indeed, Kuru's distinctions of those we maybe should consider looking at are...well, I couldn't put it better myself: "those heavily suspected by Valier, those only mildly suspected by Valier, and those not suspected at all. Those not suspected at all would be the ones to be the most interested in because they would have the least to lose by killing her because they would be in the least danger."

So, to consider Valier's last real analysis post, #244...well, unfortunately TGWBS has rather beaten me to alot of my analysis (apparently we were cross-posting before the untimely demise of my own post), but hey, I shall reiterate; why not...

Those who Valier said she was 'fairly sure' to be innocent consist of just three names (narrowing it down...not...): Rune, Kuru and Gurthang (what were you saying about her being entirely wrong, Gurthang? ). So we can presume solely on the basis of Valier's death that these three for now can be considered in the clear, and suitably un-lupine: she considered them innocent and therefore posed no threat to her.

To add a few additional notes to that, Rune could be considered to be especially in the clear: as well as being mentioned in the above cited post, he also vehemently proclaimed his belief in Valier’s own innocence in post #273. The faith was therefore mutual: neither posed any threat at all to the other, so, if Rune was a wolf, it would be a little pointless to kill her off, or at least, there would be other rather more suitable victims. On the other hand, however, Rune’s post did follow Valier’s chronologically: maybe, seeing that she had no suspicion of him, he gave her his firm vote of confidence, knowing that then to kill her off would throw no light of suspicion onto him at all, while bringing the ratio of wolves to villagers up – a cunning plan for a wolf. However, I think it is more likely that he is innocent based on the mutual faith that apparently existed between them (although I’m not entirely sure looking at the previous counter-argument…)

Also, I think this would be a suitable moment to mention Farael in the same breath as ‘innocent’: like Rune, he declared that he thought Valier to be innocent (post #241), but this time before Valier’s analytical post. She mentioned no suspicions of him at all, and, again, the lack of suspicion is mutual: there would really be little merit in killing someone who posed so little threat to you. So I think, again based on Valier’s death, that Farael is probably innocent.

As for those she suspected…well, here’s the section:

Meneltarmecil-This guy ...well gives me the creeps.I just don't get him yet he "Howls at the moon" is that a good sign really?

Cailin-I have been suspisious of her since the beginning,but theres not much to go on,she did vote for two innocents, and has been suspisious of me and defensive with anyone who accuses her.I think she is innocent though..safe for the day anyways.her defensiveness is a natural reaction of an innocent.

TGWBS-His lack of posts is odd,But his points on Lhuna are sound.

Lhunardawen-I have a feeling....don't quite know yet

Nilpaurion Felagund-My vote will more than likely be for him I don't believe the crazy stuff.I'm curious as to weather to lynch him to see,or go a little differently.

Malkatoj-I have a bbbaaddddd feeling about this one though I'm not sure I'll act on it yet,or if I should even.

So, Menel, Cailin, TGWBS, Lhun, Nilp and Malka – and yes, I am leaving Cailin on that list. Now, firstly I would like to point out that, obviously, Valier’s word can hardly be taken as Law here: for one thing, she suspects a known – and now dead – innocent. There is also the fact that some of her suspicions do seem, well, frankly a little suspect themselves: for example, her reasons for Malka consist quite simply of ‘a bad feeling’; similarly, Lhunardwen is accused on the basis of Valier’s gut feeling. Because of this, out of the list of six (five if we do not include the dear deceased, Nilp), these two would probably be least likely, in my opinion, to take her out if they were wolves. I mean, yes, on the one hand this could be considered a danger as, given a day or two, this ‘feeling’ could certainly develop into something more risky – maybe it would be best to take her out early. But, on the other hand, why bother? These two have had suspicion voiced from other corners – a ‘bad feeling’ was very unlikely to yield any solid votes, Valier even says this herself; there would be other, more ‘deserving’ candidates for the Night’s hunt than Valier on this basis. I therefore doubt that these two are wolves (again, strictly on the basis of Valier’s death), although I hold onto my previous suspicions about Lhun (even if they are now waning quite considerably!). And TGWBS – no, I believe, like several others in this village, Malka previously stated that she has not been in a village before, so she wouldn’t necessarily be familiar with Nilp’s behaviour.

Now, Cailin…well now. Valier, in the above mentioned post, seems actually rather unsure of Cailin, for the first time really. Maybe this could put Cailin in the clear (TGWBS, you go as far as to pretty much stating this as fact), as Valier was a decreased threat to her – BUT, she has posed a threat from the beginning: as Valier says, she has suspected Cailin “from the beginning”. Such suspicion could very easily re-emerge, I reckon – maybe Cailin, if she’s a wolf, thought that it would be best to get Valier out of the way just in case; because Valier had said her faith in Cailin was increasing, Cailin considered that she would not be as easily linkable to Valier’s death. I don’t know – but I reckon Cailin is still very much in the running for wolf-hood.

Another villager I would like to mention is Gurthang. Sure, Valier says she does not suspect him, thereby meaning she poses little or no threat to him – but remember, she’s got it wrong before, she could similarly be wrong about Gurthang’s innocence. I don’t know, I feel somewhat uneasy of him… He seems to be a prime bandwagoner, both on the mob that went after Nilp (latching onto Cailin’s theory), then – and this is an interesting one I think – onto Valier’s ‘bad feeling’ about Malkatoj (post #247)…but doesn’t really give any other explanation for this mention; he just pretty much repeats what Cailin said. I sense bandwagonage. Maybe he thought that, as Valier did not suspect him, she posed no threat, and that he could secure a pleasant relationship with her by agreeing with this feeling and maybe trying to incite feeling against another player in the hope that it would start a ball rolling – even though, again, there is no evidence. This seems like he was just trying to safely displace all suspicion onto Malka (although admittedly there was very little around him – but this could be like the paranoia Garin displayed), while almost in cahoots with Valier – meaning that killing her would be unlikely to be linked to him.

Hmm. I am unsure of how my vote will go for today; leave it for a few hours certainly… (although I shall be unable to post at the very, very end of the extended Day 4, due to it being about 12.30 my time – could we not leave it at 10.00pm GMT? It will confuse the days rather otherwise…*shrugs*)

(And crossposting with The Guy Who Be Short)

EDIT: And if anyone comments on me not adding much again, I'll 'ave yer! If that ain't a long post, I don't know what is!