Tol-in-Gaurhoth XVI: No man is an Island

[Kuruharan]

Nice to see everyone is behaving rationally.

I'm not sure if we should all just concentrate on Nilp as that'd mean that the werewolves can hide in the possibly massive bandwagon.... I'd suggest everyone entretains at least another theory, both to stimulate conversation and make it harder for the furry mammals with big teeth to hide among us.

While I agree this idea has some merit, I think the dangers of werewolves being able to escape and manipulate the vote when everybody gets involved in a lively squabble over their pet theories are at least as great. At this moment, this could perhaps be more unfortunate for us. I once heard tell of a village that came to ruin because the villagers persistently refused to deal with the obvious issues in front of them and squandered their time by obsessively chasing obscure theories down rabbit holes. By the time they got around to dealing with the obvious problem it was a little bit too late.

I think at this moment focus is critical, even if werewolves get lost in the voting a bit (which is a little harder for them now because we can go back and look at prior evidence). We don’t want to have this hanging over our heads, because it is never going to go away.

It seems perfectly illogical to say that I am guilty because Garin defended me
-Nilpaurion

It is not only that he defended you. It is that he rather oddly mentioned your name in his first post, and then unquestioningly defended you afterwards. This behavior toward a person by a wolf is enough to provoke serious questions.

All the above being said, I’m suddenly consumed with doubts about Nilp’s guilt. Unfortunately, I now have a theory that involves a couple of other people, but the only way I can think of to reliably test it is by killing Nilp even if he is innocent. Even if he is innocent I think it will tell us a lot about some other people. However, killing an innocent is always a bit of a problem…

And that's what disconcerts me. He's ruthless enough and cunning enough to kill Garin off first, then assuming an air of innocence. His rationale is too rational. Pu simply, I don't trust his intellect.

Oh, please…we have gone over this already. I can’t believe I have to waste more time on this, but let me expound on this at length. I am the one person here (while it is certainly something that would occur to me) that would be utterly incapable of actually pulling this off. My remaining associate would probably denounce me because they, not being able to trust me anymore (especially because I’d voted for my fellow wolf two DAYs in a row), would think they could win a solo victory. I wouldn’t have a prayer of saving myself because everybody would believe my associate and nobody would believe me (and the only way I could save myself is by turning on my “comrade.”) Basically, the werewolf side would be toast because people would cease trusting my "buddy" and ultimately turn on him/her when they later kept failing to find a wolf.

While it is all very flattering, to be sure, to be seen as this capable and devious, one also has to take it into account when one is thinking what it is and is not possible for me to do. Being permanently branded as “devious” is actually very hamstringing. You have to take this into account when theory building by asking yourself, “Could this person actually be able to do this and be believable while doing it?” The answer in my case is “No.” I couldn’t do it even if I were a wolf and wanted to. But I’m not a wolf so I couldn’t do it anyway.

TGWBS has suddenly returned himself (you will recall that he was one of my original suspects) to my “Passionately Desire to Kill” list. However, for the moment I’d still rather vote for Nilp.

But there is still plenty of time.