Tol-in-Gaurhoth XVI: No man is an Island - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Cailín · 01-14-2006, 03:47 AM

Some quick notes, I shall return shortly with some more extended views.

Lhuna, I understand your vote for Naria and she was also on my possibly suspicious list, but I felt a little more strongly about some of the others. Your case seems to hold, though, even though you think you’re grasping straws. I shall think about it.

Kuru – I think you are indeed innocent, but I’m simply a little wary of you because I know how dwarfs can be. I do not agree with your feeling concerning Gurthang, but you’re right that those who voted for Garin should not get a get-out-of-jail-free-card all of the sudden.

Amanaduial – there are two reasons I am watching you a little closer. 1) Because of your voting pattern and 2) Because you are a little confusing at times. However, since I thought you clearly innocent yesterDay, I shall probably not be voting for you.

About our two silent fellows, TGWBS and Malkatoj… I find the former most worrisome because he does not even try to analyse some and apparently does not feel guilty for not helping us out at all. But – for now, it is still early - I would be in favour of lynching either Nilpaurion or Naria today.

Nilpaurion Felagund · 01-14-2006, 05:27 AM

A Case for Innocence

(Not for me, silly; it would be wasted keystrokes. Better make my death good though, Formodacil. Maybe something with pitchforks or trees or giant devouring spiders.

)

Sorry, I lost my downloaded copy of the thread (which would have allowed me to analyse everything in the comfort of my home, instead of being harried by monetary considerations in internet cafés), so I couldn't do a proper case against someone. It would take more to convince of guilt than of innocence (for me, at least), so this is the best I could do. Hope it would suffice.

Most of the information here are based on the voting (and the resulting lynching of a Werewolf) that happened yesterDAY (qv. Appendix below).

Lhunardawen

I am almost completely sure of her innocence. Most of my arguments can be seen in post 258. Also, I realised that her vote for me DAY 1 (which made me initially suspicious of her) was simply her seeing what some of you failed to see: Dice don't have memory, and neither do WW role assignments.

Valier

Rune Son of Bjarne

If either of these two were werewolves, they're very bold and smart (or the werewolves concocted an excellent sacrifice plan, although considering what the Seer could do with a dead Werewolf, it's highly unlikely.) They were the ones that gave impetus to the Garin bandwaggon.

Gurthang

He suggested quite a good plan early in the game, usually a good sign of a thinking, helpful villager. Plus, he was the one that sealed Garin's fate.

Kuruharan

He's the one I'm least sure of. He also was the vote that killed Garin, although, being more experienced, it could have been part of a Werewolvish plan. (He said in 222 that he was monitoring the thread while posting, which suggests he knew that he'd cross-post.)

Appendix

DAY 2 votes with voting times (GMT). Possible cross-posts in groups.

05:55 Alcarillo- Cailín (Cailín 1)

08:47 Lhuna - Eluchíl (Cailín 1 - Eluchíl 1)

10:49 Amanaduial - Lhuna (Cailín 1 - Eluchíl 1 - Lhuna 1)

13:13 Nilp - Cailín (Cailín 2 - Eluchíl 1 - Lhuna 1)

19:22 Farael- Garin (Cailín 2 - Eluchíl 1 - Lhuna 1 - Garin 1)

19:50 malkatoj - Lhuna (Cailín 2 - Eluchíl 1 - Lhuna 2 - Garin 1)

20:16 Rune - Garin (Cailín 2 - Eluchíl 1 - Lhuna 2 - Garin 2)

20:30 TGWBS - Lhuna (Cailín 2 - Eluchíl 1 - Lhuna 3 - Garin 2)

21:39 Naria - Cailín (Cailín 3 - Eluchíl 1 - Lhuna 3 - Garin 2)

21:46 Azaelia - Garin (Cailín 3 - Eluchíl 1 - Lhuna 3 - Garin 3)
21:47 Cailín - Eluchíl (Cailín 3 - Eluchíl 2 - Lhuna 3 - Garin 3)
21:50 Valier - Garin (Cailín 3- Eluchíl 2 - Lhuna 3 - Garin 4)

21:58 Kuruharan - Garin (Cailín 3 - Eluchíl 2 - Lhuna 3 - Garin 5)
21:58 Garin - Lhuna (Cailín 3 - Eluchíl 2 - Lhuna 4 - Garin 5)
21:59 Gurthang - Garin (Cailín 3 - Eluchíl 2 - Lhuna 4 - Garin 6)

Lhunardawen · 01-14-2006, 06:18 AM

...know what that means?

*lets out a giant hoooowwwl*

Did you really think you could get rid of me just like that? Once a Lhunatic, always a Lhunatic - but this time I'll be more kind and just bother you on full moons.

And because of that pizza with helpfulness potion that I ate yesterDay, the scariest things you'll hear from me are a few Lhuny laughs and howls at the full moon.

*laughs Insanely*

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cailin

About our two silent fellows, TGWBS and Malkatoj… I find the former most worrisome because he does not even try to analyse some and apparently does not feel guilty for not helping us out at all.

If anything I agree with you, dear, especially concerning tgwbs. I mean, he used to be all talkative and all, casting suspicions around and almost getting himself lynched with his talkativeness. What's with the attitude change? Uncertain how to conceal his lupine traits?

*cackles* --> That's a new thing I learned from my long disappearance.

Anyways, that innocent list of Nilp's is very interesting. I should say we share a lot of similar opinions, and that makes me believe in his innocence more. Unless I'm the unfortunately gullible Estel to his Eomer, if you get my drift. *giggles*

Oh, and don't worry, I remain perfectly capable of creating those pizzas you so love, only now I have new potions available. There's this new Lhunacy potion pizza, if you want to howl as beautifully as I do.

*howls at the full moon*

Nilpaurion Felagund · 01-14-2006, 06:45 AM

Don't worry, my dagang sister, you don't need to say I'm innocent. They'll just say we're in league and lynch us side by side (if that's possible.

)

This might be my last post in this here game, so I'd like to thank you, Farael, for you seem to see things in a better way.

And . . . My fair village, watch out for Alcarillo!

Cailín · 01-14-2006, 06:49 AM

Well, that took a little longer than I had expected.

I basically agree with your cases for innocents Nilp, though I had Alcarillo added to the list because I am quite convinced a wolf wouldn’t start Day 1 with a vote on another wolf. Of course, I could be wrong, but if I were Garin I would have been seriously ****ed off, especially since Alcarillo was not the only one to question Garin’s behaviour (rightly, we know now). Your list makes me doubt your guilt again, but I still think that lynching you might be a good idea, for you’re bound to confuse us all to no end anyway.

Your voting analysis is very helpful Gurthang, thanks. I’d say voting looks especially bad for Naria, but that’s only because I am a known innocent to myself.

I’m by now pretty convinced that Lhuna is innocent. Even though I had not previously considered this, Garin might be thinking to save himself or enforce a double lynching by his last minute vote for the lunatic. Since the rules for double lynching were sort of confusing for a while, I find it quite easy to believe Garin misunderstood. However, I don’t underestimate the ex-wolf and deep down I still have some doubts.

About the whole Seer thing… it worries me a little. I would suggest the Seer does not come forth unless he / she has crucial information. On the other hand, we still have an Apprentice and a Ranger as well, but the more people die, the likelier it becomes that the wolves pick out one of our Gifteds and so we cannot count on that strategy – the one Gurthang proposed on Day 1 - working anymore. Even if the Ranger defends the Seer, we might lose the Ranger or the Apprentice and with that a very valuable player. I suggest the Seer continues to lay low for today, unless he / she is certain we have the game in the bag. ;-)

Edit: had not expected anyone to post at this hour, so I cross-posted with Nilp's final dramatic message. Wonder what you mean about Alcarillo, though.

Lhunardawen · 01-14-2006, 07:06 AM

Oh look, Nilp defended me! This must mean we're in cahoots!

*laughs*

But please, I implore you, I think the lycans are cackling to themselves right now because they manage to hide beneath the radar while we innocents argue. Think of the polar ice caps!

*guffaws maniacally*

I'm still all in favor of looking towards the creepily silent ones, because we never know if they are silently planning to devour each of us. Creepily, of course. And with all of you eating my fabulous pizzas, I'm pretty sure we all taste darn good.

*howls at the moon yet again*

Cailín · 01-14-2006, 07:10 AM

...

You know, maybe double lynching you two would not be such a bad plan after all.

This 'timezone' disease is having some interesting lupine side effects, I observe.

Lhunardawen · 01-14-2006, 07:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cailín

...

You know, maybe double lynching you two would not be such a bad plan after all.

This 'timezone' disease is having some interesting lupine side effects, I observe.

*laughs coyly* Believe me, I had no idea timezones could come out like that. I've had this for quite some time now...punny, eh?

But won't you even just let the Seer dream of me, as Alcarillo and Menel previously proposed? Aww, poor little me...

But of course, the Seer should not be wasting dreams on obvious innocents like me. After all, we have werewolves to catch lest we all want to turn into their Full Moon feast.

*howls*

01-14-2006, 05:27 AM	#2
Nilpaurion Felagund Scion of The Faithful Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: The brink, where hope and despair are akin. [The Philippines] Posts: 5,312	[The Carnivore eats a swan, sings a song.] A Case for Innocence (Not for me, silly; it would be wasted keystrokes. Better make my death good though, Formodacil. Maybe something with pitchforks or trees or giant devouring spiders. ) Sorry, I lost my downloaded copy of the thread (which would have allowed me to analyse everything in the comfort of my home, instead of being harried by monetary considerations in internet cafés), so I couldn't do a proper case against someone. It would take more to convince of guilt than of innocence (for me, at least), so this is the best I could do. Hope it would suffice. Most of the information here are based on the voting (and the resulting lynching of a Werewolf) that happened yesterDAY (qv. Appendix below). Lhunardawen I am almost completely sure of her innocence. Most of my arguments can be seen in post 258. Also, I realised that her vote for me DAY 1 (which made me initially suspicious of her) was simply her seeing what some of you failed to see: Dice don't have memory, and neither do WW role assignments. Valier Rune Son of Bjarne If either of these two were werewolves, they're very bold and smart (or the werewolves concocted an excellent sacrifice plan, although considering what the Seer could do with a dead Werewolf, it's highly unlikely.) They were the ones that gave impetus to the Garin bandwaggon. Gurthang He suggested quite a good plan early in the game, usually a good sign of a thinking, helpful villager. Plus, he was the one that sealed Garin's fate. Kuruharan He's the one I'm least sure of. He also was the vote that killed Garin, although, being more experienced, it could have been part of a Werewolvish plan. (He said in 222 that he was monitoring the thread while posting, which suggests he knew that he'd cross-post.) *Appendix* DAY 2 votes with voting times (GMT). Possible cross-posts in groups. 05:55 Alcarillo- Cailín (Cailín 1) 08:47 Lhuna - Eluchíl (Cailín 1 - Eluchíl 1) 10:49 Amanaduial - Lhuna (Cailín 1 - Eluchíl 1 - Lhuna 1) 13:13 Nilp - Cailín (Cailín 2 - Eluchíl 1 - Lhuna 1) 19:22 Farael- Garin (Cailín 2 - Eluchíl 1 - Lhuna 1 - Garin 1) 19:50 malkatoj - Lhuna (Cailín 2 - Eluchíl 1 - Lhuna 2 - Garin 1) 20:16 Rune - Garin (Cailín 2 - Eluchíl 1 - Lhuna 2 - Garin 2) 20:30 TGWBS - Lhuna (Cailín 2 - Eluchíl 1 - Lhuna 3 - Garin 2) 21:39 Naria - Cailín (Cailín 3 - Eluchíl 1 - Lhuna 3 - Garin 2) 21:46 Azaelia - Garin (Cailín 3 - Eluchíl 1 - Lhuna 3 - Garin 3) 21:47 Cailín - Eluchíl (Cailín 3 - Eluchíl 2 - Lhuna 3 - Garin 3) 21:50 Valier - Garin (Cailín 3- Eluchíl 2 - Lhuna 3 - Garin 4) 21:58 Kuruharan - Garin (Cailín 3 - Eluchíl 2 - Lhuna 3 - Garin 5) 21:58 Garin - Lhuna (Cailín 3 - Eluchíl 2 - Lhuna 4 - Garin 5) 21:59 Gurthang - Garin (Cailín 3 - Eluchíl 2 - Lhuna 4 - Garin 6) __________________ フェンリス鴨 (Fenrisu Kamo) The plot, cut, defeated. I intend to copy this sig forever - so far so good... Last edited by Nilpaurion Felagund; 01-14-2006 at 05:34 AM. Reason: grammar, sorry

01-14-2006, 06:45 AM	#4
Nilpaurion Felagund Scion of The Faithful Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: The brink, where hope and despair are akin. [The Philippines] Posts: 5,312	[The Carnivore cackles.] Don't worry, my dagang sister, you don't need to say I'm innocent. They'll just say we're in league and lynch us side by side (if that's possible. ) This might be my last post in this here game, so I'd like to thank you, Farael, for you seem to see things in a better way. And . . . My fair village, watch out for Alcarillo! __________________ フェンリス鴨 (Fenrisu Kamo) The plot, cut, defeated. I intend to copy this sig forever - so far so good...

01-14-2006, 03:47 AM	#1
Cailín Ghost Prince of Cardolan Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Lurking in the shadows. Posts: 711	Some quick notes, I shall return shortly with some more extended views. Lhuna, I understand your vote for Naria and she was also on my possibly suspicious list, but I felt a little more strongly about some of the others. Your case seems to hold, though, even though you think you’re grasping straws. I shall think about it. Kuru – I think you are indeed innocent, but I’m simply a little wary of you because I know how dwarfs can be. I do not agree with your feeling concerning Gurthang, but you’re right that those who voted for Garin should not get a get-out-of-jail-free-card all of the sudden. Amanaduial – there are two reasons I am watching you a little closer. 1) Because of your voting pattern and 2) Because you are a little confusing at times. However, since I thought you clearly innocent yesterDay, I shall probably not be voting for you. About our two silent fellows, TGWBS and Malkatoj… I find the former most worrisome because he does not even try to analyse some and apparently does not feel guilty for not helping us out at all. But – for now, it is still early - I would be in favour of lynching either Nilpaurion or Naria today.

01-14-2006, 06:49 AM	#5
Cailín Ghost Prince of Cardolan Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Lurking in the shadows. Posts: 711	Well, that took a little longer than I had expected. I basically agree with your cases for innocents Nilp, though I had Alcarillo added to the list because I am quite convinced a wolf wouldn’t start Day 1 with a vote on another wolf. Of course, I could be wrong, but if I were Garin I would have been seriously ****ed off, especially since Alcarillo was not the only one to question Garin’s behaviour (rightly, we know now). Your list makes me doubt your guilt again, but I still think that lynching you might be a good idea, for you’re bound to confuse us all to no end anyway. Your voting analysis is very helpful Gurthang, thanks. I’d say voting looks especially bad for Naria, but that’s only because I am a known innocent to myself. I’m by now pretty convinced that Lhuna is innocent. Even though I had not previously considered this, Garin might be thinking to save himself or enforce a double lynching by his last minute vote for the lunatic. Since the rules for double lynching were sort of confusing for a while, I find it quite easy to believe Garin misunderstood. However, I don’t underestimate the ex-wolf and deep down I still have some doubts. About the whole Seer thing… it worries me a little. I would suggest the Seer does not come forth unless he / she has crucial information. On the other hand, we still have an Apprentice and a Ranger as well, but the more people die, the likelier it becomes that the wolves pick out one of our Gifteds and so we cannot count on that strategy – the one Gurthang proposed on Day 1 - working anymore. Even if the Ranger defends the Seer, we might lose the Ranger or the Apprentice and with that a very valuable player. I suggest the Seer continues to lay low for today, unless he / she is certain we have the game in the bag. ;-) Edit: had not expected anyone to post at this hour, so I cross-posted with Nilp's final dramatic message. Wonder what you mean about Alcarillo, though.

01-14-2006, 07:06 AM	#6
Lhunardawen Hauntress of the Havens Join Date: Mar 2003 Location: IN it, but not OF it Posts: 2,538	Oh look, Nilp defended me! This must mean we're in cahoots! laughs But please, I implore you, I think the lycans are cackling to themselves right now because they manage to hide beneath the radar while we innocents argue. Think of the polar ice caps! guffaws maniacally I'm still all in favor of looking towards the creepily silent ones, because we never know if they are silently planning to devour each of us. Creepily, of course. And with all of you eating my fabulous pizzas, I'm pretty sure we all taste darn good. howls at the moon yet again

01-14-2006, 07:10 AM	#7
Cailín Ghost Prince of Cardolan Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Lurking in the shadows. Posts: 711	... You know, maybe double lynching you two would not be such a bad plan after all. This 'timezone' disease is having some interesting lupine side effects, I observe.