Tol-in-Gaurhoth XVI: No man is an Island

[Kath]

To all newbies, the thing about Nilp is that he frequently and consistently votes for himself whatever he is. His alter egos sometimes pop in to try and stop him but mostly he just gets himself lynched, it's a thing of his. However, unlike TGWBS who seems to believe him innocent and so suspects those who vote for him (possible alliance?) I am quite prepared to believe that he could be a wolf.

I said earlier that no one seemed to be screaming 'I'm a wolf' (nice pick up there Cailin but even I'm not that stupid), now here we have someone willing to be lynched. All we have to decide is whether it is some elaborate bluff. However, we won't know that until the fellow is dead.

Bandwagoning always leads to accusations the next day but hey, we've nothing better to go on yet. Unless the situation changes dramatically in the next few hours I will grant the insane man his wish and help to lynch him. If he is an innocent then so be it. We'll have rid the village of a certain source of confusion. If he is a wolf then fantastic! Let's hope they all do it.

However, I wouldn't hold anyone who has voted for Nilp in suspicion much, as most people are likely just confused and want to find out what's going on. Hmm, except maybe malkatoj - a funny feeling about him? Sounds like a half baked reason that's been pretty hastily cobbled together due to time contsraints.

As for other suspicions, that against Lhuna for her quick vote for Nilp seems a little odd. She has the same timezone difficulties as him so it is unsurprising, and it seems she only had time for one post ergo the early vote for the only person who has thus far given any cause to lynch him. So Cailin, any other reasons for suspecting the girl? Or was it a first day random accusation?

In fact Cailin has come to my attention a few times while reading through this thread. Very quick to accuse but is hanging back on a vote. Thing is that everything she says makes perfect sense and is exactly what I'm thinking (which is why it's driving me nuts and making me suspicious of her).

Oh well. We've had 9 votes now I think and only 5 of them are for Nilp. If people are serious about stopping this bandwagon (Farael) they might do well to decide on one other person to vote for, as they might just tip the balance. However I should say now that without some seriously good evidence against someone else, my vote will go to Nilp.

[Meneltarmacil]

hastily cobbled together

Heh heh heh. Something you're trying to say there, Kath?

[Kath]

That's it. From now on I use small words! Nowt more than one syl lab bull.

[Kuruharan]

Please elaborate, I'm not sure what you mean.

That's just it. There really isn't anything to elaborate on. Some of the things you’ve done have sort of struck me as being a bit…sly. I will probably have a completely different view tomorrow. It’s just DAY ONE, you have to expect this sort of thing. In fact, it’s really something of a backhand compliment to be voted for on the first day…sometimes.

However, at the moment I am suddenly feeling a lot more suspicious of TGWBS. His vote really seems to have been the one to build some momentum for this new lynch Gil-Galad bandwagon. These second votes for somebody are always important.

And oddly enough, Meneltarmacil has also now landed himself squarely on the radar for the exact same reason (ironically enough in an attempt to clear himself).

Oh well. Depending on who is gotten we might learn something toDAY after all.

Still I feel most comfortable (which isn’t much) with this vote.

++ GARIN

DAY ONEs

[Cailín]

I much share your thoughts, Kuru. Day One is so hopeless. Well, this is hardly helpful.

In voting order:

Azaelia - Meneltarmacil
Alcarillo - Garin
Nilpaurion Felagund - Nilpaurion
Lhunardawen - Nilpaurion
Amanaduial - Kuruharan
Gil-Galad - Nilpaurion
Malkatoj – Nilpaurion
Farael - Eluchil
Naria - Nilpaurion
Rune – Gil Galad
TGWBS – Gil Galad
Meneltarmacil – Gil Galad
Valier - Eluchil
Kuruharan - Garin

Yet to vote:

Cailin
Garin
Kath
Gurthang
Eluchil

For now my vote shall go to, and I hope it is indeed wisdom:

++GIL GALAD

But I shall be looking closely at Garin and TGWBS as well, much due his uncharacteristic silence.

[Cailín]

*double posting*

With as well I naturally mean tomorrow.

[Gurthang]

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

That's just it. There really isn't anything to elaborate on. Some of the things you’ve done have sort of struck me as being a bit…sly.

I'm actually having that same feeling; and sometimes those feelings just happen to be right.

I'm thinking my vote will be for either Garin, Eluchil, or malkatoj. Garin just seems almost overly defensive. Eluchil was somewhat flip-floppy earlier, and malkatoj's vote for Nilp (the third for him) seemed an awful lot like a wolf starting a bandwagon.

But I'm also wondering if I should put Gil right up there beside Nilp. If we made it close (or a tie even) we could force some wolves to make an open decision. I'm not sure that's the best idea, though, because if it is a tie, then we'll be so suspicious if only one dies it pretty much guarantees the other's death tomorrow. Still, if everyone who is left to vote would vote either Gil or Nilp... but that's not going to happen.

Speaking of not going to happen.

Originally Posted by Farael

Having that said, I'd like to add another bit of a tidbit in favour of the seer coming forward if he gets a wolf on the first few nights. After we lynch the wolf, the seer should be able to ask him (or her) about someone, and therefore know at the very least, an innocent for sure. If we are lucky we'd get another wolf. And then, the ranger can protect our seer at least the night after we get the wolf... and another night if we get lucky and nail yet another wolf on the second night. But it all depends on the Seer finding a wolf in the first few nights. For the time being, we should try to help the seer by nailing a wolf by our own devices!

That would be great; but the sheer odds are so close to impossible that it almost makes you suspicious for even suggestingt he possibility!

Vote will come soon, but it will be for some one who already has more than one; so Nilp, Gil, Garin or Eluchil.

[Gurthang]

Menel - 1 (Amanduial)
Garin - 2 (Alcarillo, Kuru)
Nilp - 5 (Nilp, Lhuna, Gil, malkatoj, Naria)
Eluchil - 2 (Farael, Valier)
Gil-Galad - 4 (Rune, TGWBS, Menel, Cailín)

I hope that's right.

[Gurthang]

Well, we're out of time. (I'm pretty sure at least. Deadlines in 2(?) minutes?)

I'm not voting Nilp. I don't think he's guilty, just being himself. Which will be suspicious later, but not now.

Eluchil hasn't done enough to get my vote toDay. I'll be watching, though.

I don't think voting Garin will get us anywhere, since he can still save himself and I don't think anyone else will vote for him.

Well, let's make the wolves make a choice.

++Gil-Galad

Sorry, I know I just jumped way up in the suspicious category.

[Garin]

Yes, I am a bit chatty and naturally defensive. I waited to vote to see if I needed to prevent my own lynching. It'll be nice to have the night off.
++Gil-Gilad

[Naria]

Originally Posted by Malkatoj

Kath is an unexpected kill. She wasn't especially vocal for or against anyone and missed the vote, so I can't see why she'd be killed. Meneltarmacil's vote from yesterday looks the most suspicious, along with the string of votes for Gil-Galad. Did anyone else find it odd that one person voted for him, and suddenly everyone else did too? The first vote for Gil seems to be Rune's in post 127. The next two posts, by TGWBS and Meneltarmacil, are also both votes for Gil. These votes are extremely suspicious and we should be careful around them.

I thought their sudden votes to be extremely suspicious. I was accused of jumping on a bandwagon and not having a good enough reason for my vote. Then those same people(except for Farael) turned around and made their own bandwagon and for no apparent good reason they all voted for someone that I thought really didn't attract too much attention to himself(with the one post). *tisk tisk* Poor Gil-Galad.

I'm assuming that this is going to attract some kind of attention for myself beit good or bad, but I thought I should get that out there. That being said I don't know at this point whom I'm going to vote for as of yet for the day has only just begun.

Cailin and Meneltarmacil are getting kind of cozy in their big furry coats. Maybe one is the Alpha Female and the other is the Alpha Male.....hmmmm

[Kuruharan]

Hmm...I am still waiting for a number of people to speak.

I was thinking that it would be unlikely for both TGWBS and Meneltarmacil to be wolves...but now I'm not so sure. The wolves can't communicate during the DAY so they can't coordinate their actions. That could have just been a snafu where they both were trying to cover themselves by each trying to cast a side vote that seemed likely to be meaningless and accidentally started a bandwagon. However, I'm not sure the scenario I just explained is very likely...but it is still possible.

I'm waiting for TGWBS to say something.

Although, if Garin is a wolf, I'd look into Nilp actually being one also, which would make sense because of Garin saved Nilp with that last minute vote.

I suppose it's something to keep in mind. However, I'm not sure a wolf would extend itself to save another when there are still three of them. I guess I'd feel more confident about that conclusion (if we should get to a point of testing it) if something else turned up.

I have a few other ideas percolating on the back burner...but until some other people speak I think I'll just sit on them.

[Gurthang]

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

I suppose it's something to keep in mind. However, I'm not sure a wolf would extend itself to save another when there are still three of them. I guess I'd feel more confident about that conclusion (if we should get to a point of testing it) if something else turned up.

I think they would. If they don't, then they lose a wolf on the first day, a major set-back. If they do, then we won't even know it was wolf saving wolf until we actually kill one (or both) of them. Sounds like something a wolf could, and very well would, do.

Nilp, I'm surprised you haven't suggested lynching Saucepan Man for being too smart. I'm leaning on number 4. It just seems like something you would do.

I'm inclined to think that Menel is innocent. He quickly called Kath's cobbler comment into open view. He might be a wolf, but I think it's a stretch that they would intentionally kill their teammate on the first Night. But on the other hand, everyone (assuming they saw Menel's commment), so the wolves would have known she had left the hint.

That being said, she must have said something else in order for them to kill her, something that maybe made them think she was a gifted rather than the cobbler. I'll go check.

[Valier]

Originally Posted by Gurthang

I'm inclined to think that Menel is innocent. He quickly called Kath's cobbler comment into open view.

I hate to just agree with everyone but I agree with you on this point.I believe him to be innocent...*for the time being*

I'm wondering why everyone is so quiet today...Everyone coming up with a good aliabi I hope.

I would like to hear what you find out about Kath's posts Gurthang

[Alcarillo]

Well, I'm headed to bed soon, so I will vote now, even with the minimal discussion.

I think Menel is innocent, that malkatoj's and Naria's excuses are reasonable, and I can also see the reason behind voting for Gil-Galad or for Nilp (both are confusing). People seem to be blowing Cailin's post today (after Garin's and before Kuru's) out of proportion, but Kuru does say Cailin was mentioned by Kath. Maybe the former didn't pick up on the latter's cobbler-clue, or thought it was just an odd choice of vocabulary.

Let me go look at Kath's post. I shall return shortly.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

I have been accused of Cobblerism (which I'm not), of seeking attention (I certainly am revelling in it now--Infamous? Me? ), and of pulling a bold double-bluff (as I once said, I usually tell the truth or pull a bluff; double-bluffing is hard work). Which is all good and well, but the only words I would trust now are those from me (because they were formed by someone I trust absolutely) and those from the dead (because they can't change their minds)--unless some gifted villager shows up, of course, but I don't speak for them.

Of course, despite not trusting your words, I do heed them. The Mangekyou Sharingan is upon you.

With this said, I'll now throw my sensible (for me, at least) deductions.

The Death of Kath

She was killed because:

1) she pointed a finger that was seen as threatening
2) she defended a werewolf; thus her death will make said defendee (now I'm making words up?) look innocent
3) the Werewolves are toying with us; or
4) they killed someone at random.

I can't address 3) and 4), obviously. So what if they went with option 1 or 2?

Now, in 119 Kath suspected:

1) guy and I of being allies
2) malka, because of a funny feeling; and
3) Cailín, because of the way she posts.

She also defended Lhuna.

I know I'm not a werewolf. I don't know about guy, but I don't see anything striking about him so far. (I know, you'll read this as 'Hey, look, they're obviously allies!') malka is already on my hastily-made original Suspicious's List, and now she seems to be steering suspicion away from her. (156) Cailín . . . she seems overly defensive. (164) Touchy, touchy.

It also seems cute (in a twisted sort of way) that both Menel and Cailín intended to vote for Lhunadaga (daga!) but voted for Gil instead. Coincidence? Perhaps, perhaps.

Lhunade-hime's early vote did not surprise me, but her vote for me did. She, of all people, should know the depths of my attention deficit. I am, in the words of our language, kulang sa pansin, KSP for short. Why, why?

Well, her name did show up twice. She looks to me like a good vote for now.

++Cailín

Oh, and:

DAY 1 is a practically illogical day, where the only way you could catch a werewolf is if:
. . . c) random chance. (my post)

Nice going, Emily. 'You could only catch a werewolf if random chance.'

[the guy who be short]

Menel pointed out that Kath was the cobbler. I do not believe a wolf would do this; the lupine goal would be to discover the cobbler, then ally themselves with her/him closely.

Kuru attacks Menel for his vote, understandably, and then Valier attaches herself onto the same statement. Hmmm. Not to mention the vote for G-G at a key point.

So, the three so far chosen are Cailin, Eluchil and Lhunardawen. Other than the latter, the others have not struck me as overly suspicious. I suggest we divert our votes elsewhere.

Frankly, I'm not sure what to do.

[Gurthang]

Quick thoughts... No time...

Let me just say that voting for someone who already has votes is not bandwagonning. Voting for that person because they have votes is. It's more about motive than the act.

Amanaduial, I know Alcarillo didn't mention you specifically, but you were the one who responede.

[Amanaduial the archer]

Well, well, I hate to sound hard-hearted, but that was a little unexpected bonus: looks like, as Garin pointed out, the wolves have lost a friend indeed. Still, one enemy dead, but still no pelt for my saddle-rug, something I hope will be remedied by this evening!

Originally Posted by Lhuny

As for my vote for Nilp, it was a matter of practicality and limited time.

++ELUCHIL

makes me feel a bit uncomfortable. I don't have any proof, of course, but it might be good to spark a little more conversation...

Spark a little- spark a little conversation?! Good lord woman, what kind of (lupine) monster are you?! These are people's lives, and you'd place a vote simply for the sake of sparking conversation! I mean, I don't disagree with you, Eluchil's behaviour on some fronts - continuous attacking, trying to form alliances left right and centre (possibly to allay suspicion?), jumping to and fro form conclusions and accusations - all rather erratic behaviour - and the growing suspicion from others in the thread backs up that my thinking that he is maybe a little suspicious is not entirely out of the ordinary - but without reasoning? Pah!

()

Now Nilpaurion...ah, Nilpy nilpy nlipy woops slip of the tongue nilpy... He, well, he is certainly an enigma. I can't work it out! He seems so fixated on proclaiming his guilt - should this be suspicious or not?! If this is a double bluff, it is certainly a very elaborate one, but why would he go to so much trouble? If he isn't simply suicidal, then Nilp is a self-proclaime attention seeker, which made me initially suspect him as the Cobbler, on the grounds of seeming to try to distract the conversation away from any useful speculation onto a focus on himself (not a criticism at you, Nilp, I'm merely stating facts) - but now the Cobbler is dead, I just don't know what to think!

Originally Posted by Alcarillo

If I were a wolf, I would go after somebody who accused me a tiny bit, somebody who could become a rival later in the game, but not somebody to whom I am a main suspect

Well now, Alcarillo, if that ain't a suspiciously competitive attitude, I just don't know what is. Garin was accused of looking to the future, but Alcarillo goes a step further: he makes bold statements about the future, and, further than that, he assumes that the wolves will not be caught, and that he will not be caught, although whether those two statements are in fact one and the same, we are yet to find out. Competition? Would it not be better to work together to try to catch out the wolf, rather than viewing each other as 'competition' - for what, meat?! Maybe not - for a wolf!

Maybe, on the other hand, we should consider why the wolves want us out of the village - seems peculiar to say the least. It could either point the finger at, or clear the name of, Rune. A hobbit - from a land far away, maybe hoping to expand?! But then, a peace activist - I've heard that, although those guys can organise a wild rave, they ain't so big into the murder and digestion of their fellows, however big an appetite they have. So for now, I consider him to be perhaps the one safe bet.

What about malkatoj? A professor of philosophy, he says - a job with plenty of time on his hands, so I've heard; is he sleeping the days away rather than studying, ready for a wild night on the rampage? Or maybe this all an (admittedly very elaborate) mind-test? Sure, you may say this seems a little strong but who knows what goes on in the mind of the philosopher?

Hmm.

For now, I shall cast my first vote (not sure whether I will be able to post tonight, y'see), as my first suspicion in this post:

++Lhunardawen

[Meneltarmacil]

Not a lot of time to post, heh heh, but I'll do what I can.

I'm not sure what to make of Nilp at this point. He's most likely just an ordo trying to get killed or the boldest wolf in the world. As for Lhuna, her explanation doesn't seem to quite clear her in my opinion. I'll post again later, but have to go now.

[Lhunardawen]

Originally Posted by Menel

My suggestion is this: Lynch Nilpaurion Felagund toDay, while having the Seer ask Garin whether Lhuna's a wolf during the Night.

Originally Posted by Alcarillo

Then the Seer, under the protection of the Ranger, asks Garin about Lhuna.

Oh, please do, Seer. For everyone's peace, dream of me and clear my name.

Besides, I'm pretty certain the Seer has enough smarts to ask Garin already; after all, what could Gil, Kath, and Eluchil tell them that would be of any real help? Odds are, as Kuru said, they were able to ask only about an innocent and not a wolf.

But I do agree with all those who say that it's best for them to hold their peace until they catch a werewolf. Hopefully when they do declare themself, the Ranger would be around to protect them for two days tops, and then have the Apprentice take their place.

I'm not very sure about this whole lynching Nilp idea. Rather let's look towards those who are under the radar, and of them I'd like to suggest scrutinizing malkatoj, Naria, and the guy who be short.

I'll be posting a Naria analysis shortly. If anyone would, please do the same for the other two, or for someone else.

[Lhunardawen]

Originally Posted by Naria, post 115

[tgwbs] My, my aren't we a little bold. It seems to be a bit abrupt to be away from the meeting for so long and come in with tail feathers all ruffled. Why are you so defensive for Nilp? I'm not accusing you of anything,but it seems to me like you are trying to keep us away from something you may know...hmmm like a wolf maybe.

That being said I will cast my vote:
++ Nilpaurion Felagund

It is a little more than suspicious to me for him to be jumping into the fire like he did.

Am I the only one who finds this post scarily odd? There's just something about that non-commital suspicion of tgwbs that sent a chill down my spine.

Originally Posted by Naria, post 158

I thought their sudden votes to be extremely suspicious. I was accused of jumping on a bandwagon and not having a good enough reason for my vote. Then those same people(except for Farael) turned around and made their own bandwagon and for no apparent good reason they all voted for someone that I thought really didn't attract too much attention to himself(with the one post). *tisk tisk* Poor Gil-Galad.

I'm assuming that this is going to attract some kind of attention for myself beit good or bad, but I thought I should get that out there. That being said I don't know at this point whom I'm going to vote for as of yet for the day has only just begun.

Cailin and Meneltarmacil are getting kind of cozy in their big furry coats. Maybe one is the Alpha Female and the other is the Alpha Male.....hmmmm

I don't know about all of you, but there's something fishy about this post.

1. First paragraph she tries to wriggle out of the suspicion initially cast upon her and other Nilp-voters, then suspects the Gil-voters in return. I sense too much handwashing in this post, it's eerie.

Well, she did say that she knows she would be attracting suspicion for saying so, but that could be a bluff. She has to look helpful to survive, of course. Only she didn't seem to be quite helpful enough, not that I blame her (partly because I was worse than her that Day).

2. The mention of Cailin and Menel is just too self-clearing a frontal attack. Throw in two names in a curt accusation and you're already a big help to the village. Especially effective when you think you've attracted too much suspicion on yourself.

Originally Posted by Naria, post 210

hehehe....at least we're all trying to find out who the ww are and not doing too much bickering(says with sarcasm).

Cailin stands out the most for me. She has consistentley posted after someone has said somthing about her with great defense. And, at least it seems to me, she is always trying to get the spotlight off of her and onto somebody else and noone in particular I might add. Quite the wolvish behaviour if ya ask me.

I can't really explain my vote any better than that so:

++Cailin

Ironically, Cailin's being defensive attracted her more attention. A bit illogical, if you ask me, but maybe that's just me.

Plus, as I mentioned earlier, this pushed Cailin and me to a double-tie and for the moment saved Garin.


Okay, think I'm grasping at straws if you will. Partly I'm trying to make up for my uselessness the past Days, but for the most part I'm trying to spread some light towards the more dimly lit areas of this village.

[Kuruharan]

I want to say that I'm finding some of Garin's behavior to be a little furry. He's just almost a little bit too eager but then attempts to diffuse speculation on him for this point.

Unless something really strange happens in the next little bit, I'm probably going to cast my vote for him (even though it probably won't amount to much more than a protest vote.)

DAY ONEs

[Meneltarmacil]

Sorry, Kath. I guess we're all getting kind of paranoid here.

[Garin]

Posted by Kuruharan:

He's just almost a little bit too eager but then attempts to diffuse speculation on him for this point.

Please elaborate, I'm not sure what you mean. I really need to get to work so I promise, I must, be silent for the next hour.

[Valier]

Well..I'm a little confused about the Nilp situation I don't understand why he would want to kill himself!(well lynched I guess..)And why is tgwbs defending him so dilligently? Is this some friendship from other games or are they partners in crime?

As for Garin..He is a little too chatty, if you get me ,Always having to defend yourself is also a little suspisious.

As for Eluchil I thought you were a mild-Mannered Inn keeper? But you seem quick to disclaim finger pointers!What is everyone supposed to do, with horrid Werewolves lurking about!(Disperses some free booze,with a smile!) I hope Werewolves can't hold their liquor!

(Should we post an hour before the deadline who we want killed?Or do we have till that final hour?)

[Meneltarmacil]

Heh heh, we do in fact have until that final hour. Unless something happens in the next twenty minutes, however, I'll vote for Lhuna an hour early.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

There is a lot of you who really pussles me, but I dont have anything specific to point out. I guess It will have to wait until the day 2 and by that time I shal hopefully be a great deal wiser.

Now on to the voting, I have decidet that of the three I find Gil-Galad slightly more suspicious than the other two.

++Gil-Galad

[Meneltarmacil]

Creepy guy stuff aside for now, I was torn between Gil-Galad and Lhunardawen and I was going to vote for Lhuna; however, we have more of a chance of not killing off Nilp if we vote consistently for Gil-Galad. I know this will seem like bandwagoning, and to some extent it is, but as voting for Lhuna probably won't accomplish anything and she's probably going to articulate her thoughts better than Gil (no offense intended, Gil-Galad), I'm going to vote for

++Gil-Galad

[Meneltarmacil]

My last post was a cross-post with the guy who be short. I was not trying to cast a third vote, just posting a second one. Please take that under consideration.

[Gurthang]

Menel - 1 (Amanduial)
Garin - 1 (Alcarillo)
Nilp - 5 (Nilp, Lhuna, Gil, malkatoj, Naria)
Eluchil - 1 (Farael)
Gil-Galad - 3 (Rune, TGWBS, Menel)