Tol-in-Gaurhoth XV-The Villagers Strike Back!

[Kath]

What I meant is that Huan (SpM) wouldn't vote for somebody that he actually found suspicious of being an Elf.

Why not? Nonna had already received some votes as I recall so had Sauce not been killed by the Elves he wouldn't have been suspected at all for his votes.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Kath

Why not? Nonna had already received some votes as I recall so had Sauce not been killed by the Elves he wouldn't have been suspected at all for his votes.

I'm really confused. Why would SpM vote for somebody he thought could be an Elf that had a good chance of dying?

[Kath]

Oh let me think! He votes for Nonna who then turns out to be an Elf. He is then cheered for getting one of the enemy and it is very likely that he will be exempt from suspicion for at least a Night, giving him a bit of leeway.

[Kitanna]

Morm, you're quick to jump on those of us who voted for Nonna because SpM voted in this group, but what about those who went after Glirdan and caused his death?
Formendacil
mormegil
Wayne
Menel
Oddwen
Farael
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think that's the whole list of those who voted for Glirdan.

It's probable one hero is hiding in the Nonna list and one is hiding in this list.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Kitanna

Morm, you're quick to jump on those of us who voted for Nonna because SpM voted in this group, but what about those who went after Glirdan and caused his death?
Formendacil
mormegil
Wayne
Menel
Oddwen
Farael
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think that's the whole list of those who voted for Glirdan.

It's probable one hero is hiding in the Nonna list and one is hiding in this list.

Undoubtedly there could be a hero amongst them, but the difference, in my eyes, is that Glirdan looked highly suspicious and seemed overly anxious to agree with everyone's ideas. I will spend my time looking at those I've mentioned earlier and by getting one Elf in that mix I think we can find hints towards others. Plus the list of those who voted Nonna is much smaller. If, however unlikely, Nonna is innocent then most likely that list of mine is moot. Now Kitanna, who are you to question me? You are no Mithalwen and haven't earned your stripes and you're nothing better than orc food!

[Gurthang]

Well, that was a good Day that just ended, if a Day can ever be called good. Death was rampant and seemingly brutal... Huan has been murdered by his own mates... Saucepan isn't around to be automatically suspected in a few days... yes, not bad in my eyes.

I'm not sure that you all are looking at this from the right angle. You, mormegil, say that there is probably an elf in those who voted for Nonnacedak, and you, Kitanna, say there is one in the votes for Glirdan. Well, right you both may be! The odds favor Kitanna, true, but a wolf is probably in both groups, and I don't think that knowing that will really help us.

I would like to put forth a note that morm gives us a list for the opposite of his own vote. Trying to revert suspicion? Kitanna also does the same thing with her list. And for another thing, each has the other list-giver on his/her own list. I find that to be a strange coincidence.

Originally Posted by Oddwen

You wuz wroooong, señor cara resacas!

Quite. And for once I am glad. Had I been correct, then we would have lost a great wolf, and Huan would still be among us. As it is we lost only a traitor and Huan is dead.


Now, since you all seem in the list mood, I'll put forth a few, some repeated, though.

Glirdan voters:
Formendacil
mormegil
Wayne
Menel
Oddwen
Farael

Nonnacedak voters:
Boromir
Spawn
Kitanna
Saucepan Man

Other voters:
Mithalwen (Saucepan)
Nonnacedak (Meneltarmacil)
Gurthang (Rune)
Lhuna (Wayne)
Rune (Wayne)
Eomer (mormegil)
Kath (none)
Glirdan (none)

I'm going to say that there is a hero in each group. So my current "primary" suspects are mormegil and Kitanna (reasons above) and Kath for not voting. Note that these are very flimsy reasons, and shall be assuaged with a proper response.

[Boromir88]

Another interesting combination would be mormegil, Eomer and Nonnacedak.~Spawn Post 66

Something that's also come to my mind. Rather interesting I see. As mormegil has been rather defensive of Nonnacedak, why would a Hero be so blatantly defensive of another? Probably a bold bluff. But another thing that gets my attention is the hypocrisy of mormegil:

And nasty elves are quick to accuse!~post 24

So you call yourslf a nasty elf then mormegil? If I recall the very first post of the game was by you:

Warg?!?! Warg indeed more like a nasty elf. Notice that he's not from these parts and comes to us from afar. I think we best devour Eomer and be done with his pathetic life.

He sets up this quick little feud with Eomer, Eomer is more than happy to join in. I suspect Nonnacedak, he defends Nonnacedak and for some unexplained reason I'm at the top of his list? Seems like you want me dead for some reason morm? And the only person I could think of who would want me dead would be those stupid heroes.

It was quite a blessing Sauce was destroyed. I wish he wasn't our Huan as his intellegence and Leadership will be missed, but if he's going to do nothing but stir help for the Heros, it truly is a blessing that he's dead.

Anyway topping my list is:

Nonnacedak, followed by morm, then Eomer.

[Boromir88]

Posting again just to add some more:

morm, it seems like you misunderstand what Kath is saying. Just because Sauce didn't think Nonna was a hero, doesn't mean he isn't a hero. The Cobbler doesn't have inside knowledge like the Seer. Perhaps Sauce didn't think Nonna was a Hero, but doesn't mean he isn't one. Or Perhaps Sauce just didn't think Nonna would be lynched, which he wasn't.

[Meneltarmacil]

I remain slightly suspicious of Boromir88 for his suggestion of going after Farael for no good reason. His jumping on a recently-started Nonnacedak bandwagon makes him a possible Hero, as I will explain below.

In terms of voting patterns I figure that if the Heroes split their votes three ways to hide suspicion, then they will most likely have one for Glirdan, one for Nonna, and one for somebody else. That somebody else, in my opinion, is probably Wayne, as there is a good reason that can usually be cited for voting for Wayne, that being his silence. Also, it is not very likely that a Hero would start a new bandwagon the first Night, as such a person would automatically be suspected of attempting to kill off an innocent (unless a double-bluff was being employed). The same may go for someone casting a "critical vote" that breaks a tie, though this may actually mean that the "critical voter" is actually a Hero trying to save one of his/her own.

If this is the case, then:
Hero #1 who voted for Glirdan would be:
mormegil (a critical vote, which put him ahead of Saucepan and myself)
WaynetheGoblin
Meneltarmacil (I'm an Ordinary Wolf, though, and I seem to recall I cross-posted with Wayne there.)
Oddwen
Farael

Hero #2 who voted for Nonnacedak would be:
dancing spawn of ungoliant
Boromir88

Hero #3 could be anyone who didn't vote for either. If this is indeed the case, I'd suggest Rune. He very well could have gotten away with suspecting Wayne, as there is, as previously mentioned, the "let's-get-Wayne-because-he's-too-quiet" line of reasoning. Since the Nonna bandwagon wasn't rolling yet, Rune may have been attempting to start a Wayne bandwagon off of Lhuna's original vote for him.

Boromir88, due to what I think may have been repeated attempts at urging a vote for Farael from people and then finally voting, strangely, for someone else, is likely to be Hero #2.

Hero#1 could be one of many people, and is tough to call. It should also be noted that a different voting pattern could have been organized, and two HEroes may have voted for one person.

Rune and Boromir88 are my primary suspects.

Oh, and due to the length of time spent writing, there's probably some crossposting in this post.

[Boromir88]

Interesting that you leave out Kitanna, Menel, who also voted for Nonna. Though this could just be a mix up, but you did forget our lady runt.

Boromir88, due to what I think may have been repeated attempts at urging a vote for Farael from people and then finally voting, strangely, for someone else, is likely to be Hero #2.

I didn't make any attempts at voting for Farael, or trying to garner support against Farael. I merely suggested to our wolf-in-denial that if she doesn't wish to be a wolf anymore I would be more than happy to make it so.

Actually Menel, I wonder why you find my vote strange. Post 44 I, myself bring up the first accusations (serious accusations that is) against Nonna, and post 51 , hours before my vote, (and hours before Kitanna's first vote against Nonna) I said I would probably be voting for Nonnacedak. What's so strange about my vote?

I must say Meneltarmacil your reasons against me our flawed and weak. Though you already know this, but you are free to vote for who you wish, and even if I do get eaten hopefully my death will be a benefit to the village.

[Mithalwen]

Hello darlings! Well that was an unexpected piece of good fortune.

I haven't had time to go over with a fine toothcomb all that has passed since I was last here but I would like to clarify my reasons for voting for SpM and my take on his death.

I had to vote early or probably not at all. Not everyone had spoken and while I had my suspicions which I think I stated clearly, I did not have enough certainty to make a full blooded attack at that point. Being uncertain of nailing a hero, I felt it was important not to risk a double lynching of true wolves so early. Day one can be quite random and a few number of votes could clinch things.

Glirdan was behaving suspiciously but I felt there was a fair chance he was hapless not heroic. I notice that he didn't really understand my final post which might have been a further clue. Morm well ...... I so nearly voted for him but my instinct told me there was something not right with the Saucepan Man. I felt a little guilty, before the truth came out when I read the later comments, because indeed it was a little unfair to highlight him not being around much when my own attendance was (and will be if I survive) sporadic. However that was the least of my worries. The main concerns was the highly uncharacteristic slips and inconsistencies - if the elf thing was unimportant why question one and not the other? It didn't feel right. However I was not sure at all - it had not occurred to me that he was Huan and now it makes more sense.

But given the uncertainty and earliness , I also thought it wise to vote for the person who had attracted least suspicion from others among my suspects ... if further evidence proved me right; well great .. if not I would be less likely to start a bandwagon based on a hunch.

Well that makes sense to me.

As for SpM's death. I think that the elves did not think he was Huan either. They knew both of us were not of their number and decided that they might rid themselves of 2 of the big beasts in one go - ie it was a clumsy attempt to frame me. Had he proved to be a true wolf this might have been a very difficult day for me to survive. That is how I read it - but of course I know I am a wolf.

Right now to have a closer look at what has been going on. We are in a slightly better position tonight because we have lost the traitor. That reduces confusion. The Lord Sauron has had another day to gather information. Glirdan's death was unfortunate but we might have been in a much worse state.

[mormegil]

I would like to do a chronological list as it may shed light on our situation.

Formendacil votes Glirdan (Glirdan 1)
Mithalwen votes SpM (Glirdan 1, SpM 1)
Nonnacedak votes Meneltarmacil (Glirdan 1, SpM 1, Menel 1)
Mormegil votes Glirdan (Glirdan 2, Spm 1 Menel 1)
Wayne votes Glirdan (Glirdan 3, SpM 1, Menel 1)
Meneltarmacil votes Glirdan (Glirdan 4, SpM 1 Menel 1)
Gurthang votes Rune (Glirdan 4, SpM 1, Menel 1, Rune 1)
Oddwen votes Glirdan (Glirdan 5, SpM 1, Menel 1, Rune 1)
Kitanna votes Nonnacedak (Glirdan 5, Nonna 1, SpM 1, Menel 1, Rune 1)
Farael votes Glirdan (Glirdan 6, Nonna 1, SpM 1, Menel 1, Rune 1)
Lhunadarwen votes Wayne (Glirdan 6, Nonna 1, SpM 1, Menel 1, Rune 1, Wayne 1)
Rune votes Wayne (Glirdan 6, Nonna 1, SpM 1, Menel 1, Rune 1, Wayne 2)
SpM votes Nonnacedak (Glirdan 6, Nonna 2, SpM 1, Menel 1, Rune 1, Wayne 2)
Spawn votes Nonnacedak (Glirdan 6, Nonna 3, SpM 1, Menel 1, Rune 1, Wayne 2)
Boromir votes Nonnacedak (Glirdan 6, Nonna 4, SpM 1, Menel 1, Rune 1, Wayne 2)
Eomer votes Mormegil (Glirdan 6, Nonna 4, SpM 1, Menel 1, Rune 1, Wayne 2, Mormegil 1)

My earlier accusations were before much analysis and this can shed some light on things.

Menel's vote which was 3rd for Glirdan could be an attempt to give a lead to somebody else and saving himself, but he did voice some suspicion of him early on.

Gurthang's vote for Rune raises an eyebrow and really doesn't give a good explination at all here. If you don't have anything wrong with bandwagoning why not join? Instead he goes for a safe vote of Rune, whom nobody suspected so there is little chance of him being devoured that night.

Oddwen and Farael essentially lock up Glirdan's death but since I found him odd and suspicious I can understand their vote.

I do find the block of three votes for Nonna odd from SpM Spawn and Boromir.

Also Eomer's vote for me was interesting.

[Boromir88]

I do find the block of three votes for Nonna odd from SpM Spawn and Boromir.

Funny that you think that but don't find these 3 block votes for Glirdan (who is now a proven wolf) "odd":

Mormegil votes Glirdan (Glirdan 2, Spm 1 Menel 1)
Wayne votes Glirdan (Glirdan 3, SpM 1, Menel 1)
Meneltarmacil votes Glirdan (Glirdan 4, SpM 1 Menel 1)

It's highly unlikely that all three of you are the heroes, but certainly I would put my life on it and say one of you are.

[mormegil]

Notice Mr. Exorcist, whatever good you have done, I did mention Menel as suspicious. I don't find Wayne suspicious due to his vote mainly because he's Wayne and not a lot of analysis goes on in that head there. So Menel was an odd vote and I noted it.

Menel's vote which was 3rd for Glirdan could be an attempt to give a lead to somebody else and saving himself, but he did voice some suspicion of him early on.

and I don't note myself well because you nitwit I'm a wolf and I know it!

Now on to you.

for some unexplained reason I'm at the top of his list? Seems like you want me dead for some reason morm?

I believe I gave my reasons earlier and if I wanted you dead you would be you foul smelling puke guts.

[Kath]

Does anyone else find a little odd that morm seems to have dropped the whole 'Nonna is practically a proven innocent' idea without so much as a word?

Changed your mind morm, or worried you might have let too much slip there?

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Kitanna

Morm, you're quick to jump on those of us who voted for Nonna because SpM voted in this group, but what about those who went after Glirdan and caused his death?
Formendacil
mormegil
Wayne
Menel
Oddwen
Farael
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think that's the whole list of those who voted for Glirdan.

It's probable one hero is hiding in the Nonna list and one is hiding in this list.

A hero among us?

That little list there, Kitanna, is half the island, almost.

I must say, when I said I was voting for Glirdan to stir things up, I really wasn't expecting such a bandwaggon to hitch itself behind me. Still, I certainly got an interesting thing going, with plenty of information to analyze.

SPM's death, though a bit of an odd one from my point of view, is quite a logical one for the Heroes to have made. Since they knew that SPM wasn't one of their own, it was quite logical that they would have wanted to kill off one of the most intelligent wolves, and -more importantly- it was a move that any Wolf with half a set of smarts would do- and with yesterday's contorted voting record, we really have no way of guessing who it could be.

In my opinion, we are really in a situation as bad as last Night- more random voting on little or no evidence, with only the future's hindsight to clarify our actions.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

The thing I found a bit odd about Formendacil is that his posts has been without bite. They are kind of vauge and points in a lot of directions. This is quite normal infact my posts are just as vauge, but this is Formendacil. He is not acting like the wolf I used to know, he is keeping out of discutions, dont acusse people and does not post as much as you woul think. (All of this is by Formendacil standarts)

Therfor I took a look at his posts for tonight.

Originally Posted by Formendacil

I must say, when I said I was voting for Glirdan to stir things up, I really wasn't expecting such a bandwaggon to hitch itself behind me. Still, I certainly got an interesting thing going, with plenty of information to analyze.

First he defends his vote for Glirdan by saying that it was to stir things up, this I can accept. Then he goes on to saying that it was really a good thing. . . a bit odd, but not that odd.

He allso states that there is now plenty of information to analyze, but lets see what he says latter on.

Originally Posted by Formendacil

In my opinion, we are really in a situation as bad as last Night- more random voting on little or no evidence, with only the future's hindsight to clarify our actions.

Is this not a contradiction? Last Nght we had nothing to go by, but now as you say we have things to go by and yet your conclution is that nothing has changed.

Originally Posted by Formendacil

SPM's death, though a bit of an odd one from my point of view, is quite a logical one for the Heroes to have made. Since they knew that SPM wasn't one of their own, it was quite logical that they would have wanted to kill off one of the most intelligent wolves, and -more importantly- it was a move that any Wolf with half a set of smarts would do- and with yesterday's contorted voting record, we really have no way of guessing who it could be.

I just dont under stand this part. You give us a long expanation to why this would have seemed like a good kill for the Heroes, but just before you tell us how odd you think it is. I don't get it!

I know I have no great case, but it is the best i could come up with.

++Formendacil

[Boromir88]

Interesting arguments, all rather intriguing. Menel does make sense in his suspicion against Rune. Saying he's preying on someone that would be an easy target. However, would you not agree that yesterday Glirdan would be an easy target for a hero?

Rune and Farael, the problems with your belief that a hero would not have bandwagoned against Glirdan are:

1) With 6 people voting for Glirdan a hero can easily hide in there.

2) The mathematical probability.

3) You may think that for a hero to bandwagon against someone would attract suspicion to them. Yes, that's probably true, but also consider there's other innocent misled wolves in there, so the hero would feel safe. Also being a specialist in the matter Heroes place strategic votes yes, but they don't care who gets eaten as long as it's not them.

So, it's quite likely a hero voted for Glirdan. Am I saying 100% sure there's a hero in there? No, but it's a big enough probability to bet my life on it.

I see some intriguing arguments but Nonnacedak has shown me nothing to suggest he's innocent. He just agrees with Morm in that we should look at myself, Spawn, and Kitanna.

++Nonnacedak

[Boromir88]

Before I go, let it note that if I am alive tomorrow I immediately suspect those going against Spawn.

I'm not saying Spawn isn't a hero, but I see no reason to think she is, and seeing as we've had prior notice she won't be around a lot today, she makes an easy target for heroes to attack and misled wolves to bandwagon. Anyway, that's all I have to say.

[WaynetheGoblin]

Im sorry I havent posted much but im exited about chrismas so I forget about the game. People that bandwagoon are high on my suspect list.
1.Faeral
2.morm
3,rune
4.nonadak
5.Menel
6.Lhuna
7.oddwen
8.formen
9.gurthang
10.kath
11.spawn
12.mith
13.kittana
14.boro
15.eomer
I cant explain my list right now I have to go to school so.
++FAERAL

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Originally Posted by Boro

Rune and Farael, the problems with your belief that a hero would not have bandwagoned against Glirdan are:

If you look at my post you will find that I conclude that the Theory fails and only agree with the fact that Heroes might not join a bandwagon every time.



Wayne I would like to know why I am nr. 3 on your list. I did not jump on a bandwagon so that can be it, is it because of Menel's theory or do you have one of your own ?

[WaynetheGoblin]

i am just about to go and yes it is his theory.