Tol-in-Gaurhoth XIV: Nyárë Nauroron Númenoreva

[Gurthang]

Down to the depths with all of you.

Originally Posted by Formendacil

Of course you didn't. No one did. Except maybe Morm... and the Hunter so nicely suspected HIM last night.

I beg to differ. Allow me to point out my second to last post.

Originally Posted by Me

Okay, now Boromir's got me looking at him. In this post, he says don't try to make up schemes that wolves might do; it will just confuse us. Makes sense to me. But then he starts putting out schemes, not entirely unlike the ones he just denounced.

Also note that these posts were back-to-back and only 10 minutes apart. That's quick shifting, Boromir.

Wilwa is still about the same for me, her vote yesterday seems wolfish. That doesn't mean she is, but it looks that way regardless.

And now Formendacil has added to my suspicion. He posted about three people, yet just listed possibilities, never telling which he thought. Just this or that, not very helpful to me.

Holbytlass is 95% innocent in my eyes. All of her arguments (against me ) seem sound and reasonable, despite their falseness. Master Saucepan I (mostly) believe to be innocent, too, because it makes sense that Jack would dream of him. And Aiwendil's posts just keep astounding me with how reasonable they are. I especially like his how an innocent would act vs. how a wolf would act.

So, in everpopular list format(no order):

Likely innocents:
Holbytlass
Master Saucepan
Aiwendil

Suspect:
Wilwarin
Formendacil
Boromir


On a completely other tangent, Fordim's lists and numbers just keep coming and coming, and then going in circles. I don't really see it as a wolvish plot, but it just seems to be taking up space. Cobbler jumps to mind.

Hmm. Maybe if you would have listened to me after I was proven innocent, we could have still pulled this out. I was wrong about Holbytlass (great job by the way) but I pinned the other two.

I had Fordim down as the Cobbler, and, oh, he is! and Formendacil-wolf was then on my list. I find it very ironic that I voted for a wolf on the first day and got lynched for it. Yes, you got what you all deserved.

Oh, and it made me rather angry that you would lynch the cobbler. Simply ignoring him would make more sense(till later at least) for it saves an innocent.

[Holbytlass]

Night2
Holby: Man, talk about bad luck! Well, what do you think? I say we kill Gurthang cause he's the seer but that of course is instant death to you. But if he's left alive and when no one else claims to be the seer, you're dead anyway and he's gotten to proclaim another dream.
It's up to you how we work it tonight since you're on the hot seat.

Formen:OUCH!!!!
Bad luck indeed!
I've only just read the thread... and boy am I freaked...
I think you may be right about killing Gurthang. He's dangerous as all heck. Meanwhile, how would it be if I pretended to be the seer? After all, I was the first one to indict Spawn, and she was definitely a Werewolf...

Holby: The only thing is that still leaves Gurthang to proclaim about whomever he dreamt about 'tonight'.
I say kill him now, you're dead today or tomorrow. But as I said, I'll follow what you want to do. If you want to leave Gurthang, then who shall we kill tonight?
I forgot!! about the ranger, he/she is going to protect gurthang! So we need to go a different route, and get Gurthang tomorrow night (assuming he's the real deal) I suggest Jack- I find him to be annoying (in the game ).

I thought we were done for, it would be the shortest game in history. Dancing Spawn got lynched-Gurthang dreamt of Formendacil-and I was paranoid that Jack was the hunter and would take me down. I found jack to be annoying 'cause (now here's where I'm an idiot, didn't think of him being the seer) I thought I fumbled into own of his traps and didn't want to debate my way out the next day so "kill him off".

Killed Jack.

Night3:
Formen:What a great day!
Man, talk about lucky! You picked off the Seer, we somehow lucked into a double-innocents lynch, and we're both considered fairly innocent.
I've got no idea at the moment who to kill (and after last night I'm more than willing to let you pick if worst comes to worst, although I hope it doesn't), or what strategies (if any, because none seems to have worked well) we ought to employ tomorrow.I'm just pumped about a really good day of slaughter!

Holby: Cool!! we need to leave SpM cause that's probably who the ranger has chosen. I think we need to kill Wilwarin. She's suspected by alot of people and this will make the others scramble. Or maybe Kath, she's been the ranger more times than I've been wolf.
Whatever we're doing seems to be working so far. Tell me what you think if ya can.
Something else, in Wayne's first post he bolds an r-o-d which is ord(inary). Maybe I'm reading too much into it, but do you think he might be bluffing?
Also, I was thinking of ways to keep the others guessing and I think our kills should have no rhyme or reason, something like, kill the #1 suspect of whoever got lynched (except us o'course) or kill whoever wrote the 9th post of that day. Something to think about,

Formen: I thought a little about Fordim, since he's seen as my alter ego, almost... We've been paired together so much, and he thinks me innocent, so his death would shine nothing bad on ME, but still...
Wilwa sounds good... Wayne's death would really confuse them, since he's a distraction as much as anything else.

Killed Wilwarin.

Night 4:
Holby: So far so good, we have 'em confused. I think SpM tonight. I'm fairly confident that the ranger protected him last night and therefore can't tonight. Plus, it will confuse things again. What do ya think?

Formen: Confusing them is good...
SPM is a good choice, on that score. He hasn't had either of us under scrutiny, not really, so killing him could be very perplexing.
On the same score, I'm thinking that Fordhim might be a good kill, especially when one adds in that he didn't post at all on Day 3... However, his secondary fears included me, so it's not really a wise thought, now that I think about it...

Holby: I think we need to kill off one of the main loud mouths (Spm/Morm) and leave the secondary louds (Fordim/Boro) in place, they'll start to get more suspicion because they both seem to be holding back esp Boro, at least compared to their usual selves. On a personal note, I want to leave Fordim alive as long as possible while I'm still alive because of the whole "score" thing .
We'll all get looked at more closely. The only thing is that if SpM is killed, people might think I (being a wolf) killed him since people are starting to think we're in cahoots then his innocent death will clear me. I'm willing to take that risk, in fact, it would be a good thing I did get lynched now. Not that I'm going to try to on purpose but if it happened then there are still so many villagers left for you to hide among. And a wolf working by themself is far harder to catch.

Formen: Okay, your logic works for me... SPM it is...

Killed SpM.

Night5
Holby: Yea!! The ranger got it and quite fitting a wolf did the chop! Tonight I think either Aiwendil or Kath. Both are good candidates for keeping things confused. What say you, or do you have someone else in mind? I really haven't thought about who might be the cobbler, do you think it might be Fordim?

Formen: Your guess is as good as mine regarding the Cobbler... and if so, we want to keep him alive. Seven villagers going into the evening, minus one overnight kill (although that Hunter could screw things up) makes six villagers. With a Cobbler we would hold the balance of power.
I actually wouldn't be surprised if Fordhim was the Cobbler. Boromir and Morm are playing their usual game, Kath is hardly around, and Aiwendil is playing the worst game I have ever seen if he is a Cobbler.
That leaves Fordhim.It also leaves him alive.
I'm inclined to agree with your two picks- and I think that Aiwendil is the better one, simply because you've been gunning for him the whole time.
Morm has me a little worried... but I think we can survive this game. My main thought is that he has been trying to get the Gifteds to come out of hiding so he can trap us- which would make him the Hunter. Because who other than the Hunter would know if someone was lying?Just a thought...

Holby: It's getting down to the wire and I'm not so confident tonight...
Fordim-possible cobbler, leave alive
Morm-possible hunter, leave alive
Kath-seen most suspicious;kill-starting to be a pattern, would rather leave alive
Aiwendil-seen innocent;kill-definitely confuse things,might be good bluff for me
Boromir-in a way, been under the radar for the village and the wolves; could confuse things cause he'd almost be a safe kill and that's not what we've been doing. possible hunter also.
Aiwendil or Boromir-village on the whole see both fairly innocent. Aiwen would be good bluff kill for me. Boro would change the kill pattern for us, that would keep things confused. Thoughts now?

Formen: I bet you that Morm is going to take me down if he's the hunter...
As for Boromir/Aiwendil, I'd rather see Aiwendil gone, because he's been Morm's ready accomplice- and I'd just as soon not see that. Boromir is more ready to dispute with Morm... and so a better one to leave alive.
Otherwise, I agree with your assessment, and think either is good.

Killed Aiwendil.
~~~~~~~~~~
This was real fun. I'm sorry our sister wolf, Dancing Spawn, got killed right away, what happened? Glad for the chance to work with Formendacil. Alcarillo, great job modding!! Always a pleasure to be rubbing cyber shoulders with you all.

[Gurthang]

Originally Posted by Holbytlass

Night2
Holby: Man, talk about bad luck! Well, what do you think? I say we kill Gurthang cause he's the seer but that of course is instant death to you. But if he's left alive and when no one else claims to be the seer, you're dead anyway and he's gotten to proclaim another dream.
It's up to you how we work it tonight since you're on the hot seat.

Formen:OUCH!!!!
Bad luck indeed!
I've only just read the thread... and boy am I freaked...
I think you may be right about killing Gurthang. He's dangerous as all heck. Meanwhile, how would it be if I pretended to be the seer? After all, I was the first one to indict Spawn, and she was definitely a Werewolf...

Holby: The only thing is that still leaves Gurthang to proclaim about whomever he dreamt about 'tonight'.
I say kill him now, you're dead today or tomorrow. But as I said, I'll follow what you want to do. If you want to leave Gurthang, then who shall we kill tonight?
I forgot!! about the ranger, he/she is going to protect gurthang! So we need to go a different route, and get Gurthang tomorrow night (assuming he's the real deal) I suggest Jack- I find him to be annoying (in the game ).

Holy cow, it would have worked.

I cannot believe that. You guys were brilliant. I am really surprised that my plan was that close to working completely as I had hoped. To think, if you had just chosen me instead of Jack, then this just might have been the shortest game ever. All I can say is that you guys were just as lucky as I was. But my luck fell through when yours kicked in.

Originally Posted by Me

I wish you all the best of luck during the night. Well, except for the wolves, I hope you have the crappiest luck ever.

*sigh* So close, and yet so far.

[Lhunardawen]

Twice a werewolf? You apparently learn from your mistakes. I hate you, Formendacil.

And Holby? Geesh, I never even considered her.

Sorry for that case, mormegil. I have to admit, though, that I would have done that in the phantom's game if I haven't been killed by Formendacil! Perhaps it's because you've been playing in every single game I played.

This is funnily pathetic, but while reading Alcarillo's death post for me, I was almost in tears! Pity for myself and the village, perhaps.

One last thing for this time: Why in the world were you suspecting me???

[Lhunardawen]

NIGHT 1
I was choosing among The Saucepan Man, Aiwendil, Boromir88, and Fordim. I felt that Boromir88 was quite safe for the time being, and I was a little suspicious of Fordim. That left me with Aiwendil and SpM, and I thought Aiwendil was in greater danger that night because he proved to be a helpful newbie.

++Aiwendil

See, I really didn't see that Jack was the Seer. While I blamed the "Ranger" for not doing his/her job properly the next Day, I was kicking myself in the rear for being so blind.

NIGHT 2
Reason pointed to guarding SpM that night. I forgot what she said, but

++The Saucepan Man

NIGHT 3
Being thoroughly disappointed with the ineffectiveness of Reason, I decided to listen to my child instinct. She pointed to either Holbytlass or Formendacil. (How stupid of me. )

I wanted to guard either Aiwendil or SpM as the latter requested, but I couldn't anymore. Sheesh.

++Formendacil

NIGHT 4
I find out that I was lynched, without the villagers hearing so much as a word from me the whole Day. Where did I go wrong? How could I have failed Alcarillo? Fantastic modding, by the way.

[Boromir88]

It was a fun game. Sorry, you had to decipher all my talk and spekkin. It was funny in that I would go to post someone like on the books forum, and "I wuld star' spekkin' like this" and I'd have to go back and change it.

Despite the loss, I was just happy I spotted Fordim as the Cobbler, too bad I could not put my finger down on Formendacil or Holby.

Holby really does make a perfect wolf. I would suspect her, then she would say just the right thing to make herself look innocent, well played.

Formendacil, I just never thought would be a wolf. If mormegil had been alive, I probably would have been swayed to vote, considering what he would have to say, but other than that, I would never have suspected him.

And the morale of the story is that Boro and Morm need to stop getting suspicious of The Saucepan Man around half way through the game.

You're just that type of player where you have to go suspected, if we have no idea. Though I will say (and I said it in the game which was the truth) after I had voted for you I pretty much convinced myself that you were innocent. I think I was just looking for some twisted logical way to make myself believe your were innocent. After I voted I came up with this twisted way to think you were the Ranger. I noticed you uused the pipe as your icon on your posts, and I came up with pipe=Aragorn smokes=Aragorn is a Ranger=Panman is a Ranger!, but this wasn't the case. One of these days you will be a wolf.

I feel bad for lynching Lhuna, that certainly made our situation worse. Though we still would have lost someone that day, because if I didn't vote for Lhuna I was probably going to vote for Kath. I still can't believe Formendacil came out and said he was a wolf, and we're like, nahh, he can't be. I bet you were laughing over that one.

Aiwendil, I hope you enjoyed your first game, and perhaps join in another one. You make a good logical thinker.

Boromir88 – ordinary – I never knew what to think of you! Great stunt you pulled at the end.

Yah, I figured that with two wolves, and two innocent, plus one cobbler, the cobbler would step out and identify himself making this whole thing over. So, it was my last ditch effort to draw out the real cobbler and cause total confusion for the wolves. I did draw out the cobbler, but smart Fordim did the right move and voted for himself, which was the last of my intentions.

[WaynetheGoblin]

Told you so. Who was said innicent by me and was an ord morm. I cant belive that I win one and I lose all the others that sucks.By the way look at my very first post.

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Lhunardawen

Twice a werewolf? You apparently learn from your mistakes. I hate you, Formendacil.

I've already told you this, Lhuna, but it was the village that killed you. Neither myself nor Holby cast a vote for you, and you were attracting too much suspicion for us to kill.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I still can't believe Formendacil came out and said he was a wolf, and we're like, nahh, he can't be. I bet you were laughing over that one.

Oh, I was laughing.

But, to be honest, I was going to do that whether I was a Werewolf or not. Day 1 is nothing but real bandwaggoning, since nobody has voting PROOF of guilt. So I was going to sarcastically declare my wolfish innocence whatever my role was.

How amusing that I declared Fordhim to be one of my cohorts...

Originally Posted by Folwren

Is that why you two killed me that night? Because I'd voted for Formendacil?

I actually had no problem with you, but you were making Hobly antsy, and since we thought that Gurthang was the seer (and therefore protected), we went for you. Our best luck of the game.

And, unrelatedly, if I may be allowed a final (or not so final) moment of gloating, I think that Holby and I have topped Kuruharan's WWI feat of appearing innocent.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by mormegil

And of course this is one of the main reasons in suspecting you. I question why you are still here.

But of course. I am painfully aware of that.

I have a constant fear of either being killed at night or suspected during the day if I am not. Cacharoth 22.

Although, given my voting record, I find it quite ironic that I have gained a reputation of sorts in this game. I believe that I have cast a vote that actually contributed to the lynching of a Wolf once, maybe twice.

[Holbytlass]

Originally Posted by Fordim

To the wolves: was that your strategy all along or did my hinting help you at all?
To everyone: I had Holby spotted as a wolf about midway, but Formy almost completely got under my radar.

As wolves during the day, we didn't have any set up plan on what to do, we each just did our own thing.
I did wonder why you didn't analyze me harder, it was a cruel twist of fate I was a wolf again and wasn't sure how serious you would be with the 'score' thing. But that did play a part in our luck, like I said I wanted to keep alive as long as possible and that saved us from killing the cobbler at night.

Originally Posted by Formendacil

And, unrelatedly, if I may be allowed a final (or not so final) moment of gloating, I think that Holby and I have topped Kuruharan's WWI feat of appearing innocent

Funny that Formen mentions Kuru, he is what I based my DAY strategy on, trying to think and act like an innocent. It actually was hard because at NIGHT I'd forget and start wanting to make kills like an ordo.
The second or third DAY, I caught Wayne's r-o-d, but got it mixed up in my mind while doing dishes, I thought he put c-o-d which could be close to c-o-b(bler) and I was going to rat him out, that would have been a cool bluff, who would think of a wolf getting the cobbler lynched.

Boromir, you almost had me with the cobbler bluff, in my hurry I was about to post and reveal myself but what saved me was that you were already a cobbler (the first) and you had instantly voted for yourself, this time you hadn't and that "red flagged" me.

[Gurthang]

My dear Master Saucepan, I fear you missed the point of my plan.

All of that stuff, the early vote, listing the possibilities, stating just at the end that I was the Seer, all of that was designed specifically to make me look Seer-like and un-Seer-like at the same time.

As long as I never really came out and said anything, the Seer wouldn't have to come and refute my claim, so he would not be killed. Also, I was hoping that I would also appear to be a Seer hiding in the open to the wolves, so they would kill me at night. And lo and behold, it worked. Folwren did not try to stop me, you guys didn't lynch me, the ranger didn't even protect me! The only thing that went wrong was the wolves not killing me.

That's right, I wanted them to kill me. My whole plan came down to that one little factor. Had they done that, the entire thing would have been a complete success and gone down in Werewolf Gaming history.

Originally Posted by Master Saucepan

'Twas undoubtedly a noble plan, executed with worthy intention, but it was flawed. Not least because (as Holby cleverly and seemingly innocently) pointed out, you risked drawing the Ranger's protection away from the Seer and leaving her exposed (a risk that, as it turned out, bacame a reality).

It didn't work, that's true, and it was an extremely long shot from the beginning, but flawed? I think that's a little harsh. But call it what you will, say it was doomed to begin with, whatever. My point is it was so close to working it makes me want to cry.

And I should note that that 'flaw' that Holby pointed out was not really something I worried about. For the plan to work, I would have to make it so that only the wolves believed me to be the Seer. Hence the early vote. If I got a wolf (I did, as I've said way too many times), then they would of course automatically believe me to be the Seer. Innocents (specifically, the Ranger), on the other hand, would not know I had nailed a wolf, and so they would see my vote as strange and suspicious. And the Ranger won't usually protect a strange and suspicious character. Quite simply: it would leave me unprotected and a likely target for the wolves.