Tol-in-Gaurhoth XIV: Nyárë Nauroron Númenoreva

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by mormegil

In reviewing Jack's post I can see how a wolf who would spend time examining every post would come to the conclusion that Jack was the seer.

‘Appen I agree with you there mormegil, my lad. You spotted the same things in Jack’s posts as I did.

Originally Posted by mormegil

My assumption is that he dreampt of SpM as would most seers.

‘Appen I agree with you there too. Mores the pity, as it puts me in a most precarious position. The only other villager that Jack might have dreamed of, based on what 'e said like, is Wayne, as young Jack stuck up for ‘im too. An’ I can see why a Seer might dream of young Wayne, given that ’e gives little away in what ‘e says. But I tend to think it was me that Jack dreamed of. Ah well, let ‘em come at me. I’ve survived Werewolves before. I can like as not survive ‘em again.

Now, for a look at yesterday’s votes.

The votes for Spawn (a most fitting name, I might say) came from Formendacil, Master Hedgethistle, Boromir88 and Aiwendil, in that order (though, as mormegil points out, the last two cross-posted). ‘Tis possible that Formendacil thought Spawn might be a safe vote for a fellow Wolf, but I doubt it, being as Spawn was already attracting suspicion for raising ‘er Seer issues with Aiwendil. So I am inclined to trust in Formendacil’s innocence, for now. Same goes for Master Fordim. My suspicion of him yesterday was genuinely held ‘n all, but ’tis greatly lessened now. I doubt that a Wolf would have voted for a fellow Wolf to put ‘er ahead in the voting. If I am right in this, Master Hedgethistle, I did you a disservice yesterday and apologise most ‘umbly.

Originally Posted by mormegil

Now looking at votes I think it's fairly safe to assume that Boromir and Aiwendil are innocent, they cross posted at the same time thinking they would give Spawn the 3rd vote and put her in the lead.

Well, I agrees with you as far as Aiwendil is concerned. Particularly as Spawn ‘erself voted for ‘im. Then again, I never suspected ‘im much yesterday. And I guess that probably goes for our crab farmer too, though I be less sure of ‘im. Reason being that ’e could have been sacrificing a fellow Wolf to gain the appearance of innocence. I certainly wouldn’t put it past ’im. And when I looked over ’is comments from yesterday, I was slightly troubled. ’E was flip-flopping a bit, if you take my meaning. ’E made a number of accusations early on, then backtracked on ’em and started puttin’ forward other suspects. ’E didn’t give any indication that he suspected Spawn until quite late on in the day, but then done went an’ voted for ’er, effectively condemning ’er (as ’e knew Aiwendil was likely to vote for ’er). ’Twould be a risky ruse for a Wolf, but one which could reward ’im richly if it meant we all pegged ’im as an innocent.

As for the other votes, Mistress Wilwarin’s vote stands out, being as it put Formendacil ahead of Spawn in the lyncing stakes. But I can’t helpt thinking that a Wolf wouldn’t be that obvious in tryin’ to save ‘er fellow Wolf. Funny, but ‘er “suspicious” vote makes Wilwa less suspicious in my eyes.

The votes of mormegil, Holbytlass, Kath and Rune all put forward alternative candidates when Spawn was on two votes. As such, they are mildly suspicious and so I reason that there may well be a Wolf among ‘em.

Can’t tell much from the votes of Lhuna and Wayne - which leaves young Gurthang. And ‘e troubles me still, particularly as I’m inclined to think Formendacil innocent, an‘ Gurthang was gunnin‘ for ‘im right up to the end of the day. And what was all that about trying to protect the Seer? Well, my lad, clearly you failed. Could well be a Wolf but, presently, I’ve got ‘im pegged as a possible Cobbler.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Holbytlass

On the surface, it looks noble that he's drawing the wolves' attention away from the real seer (Jack) but wouldn't that also draw the ranger's protection away (or at least the ranger's best guess)? Please explain, Gurthang.

An excellent point, Mistress Butcher. And it feeds my growing suspicion of Gurthang. I too would like to hear your explanation, my lad.

Originally Posted by Aiwendil

But Wilwarin looks rather suspicious to me at the moment. She voted for Formendacil when he and Spawn were tied at 2.

But, like I said, it would 'ave been a risky vote for a Wolf. If Spawn gets lynched (as she did), such a vote would immediately put 'er under suspicion (as it has).

I would be more inclined to look at those who put forward alternative candidates. A much less riskier way of tryin' to save a fellow Wolf, since any votes that followed would mask it as a "saving" vote.

Originally Posted by Aiwendil

Either [Gurthang]'s a very clumsy villager or he's a very daring wolf or he's the Cobbler. I'm inclined to think the latter.

On that, you an' I are in agreement.

[Boromir88]

Poor Jack, I 'ad no clue she was the seer. I's thought it wus sumone else, but I aint gonna go into who.

Jus' to make a comment on me spekkin' Panman. Sorry, I neva lurned 'ow to spek, 'haps if Aiwendil and I survive dis mess, I can lurn.

I'm gonna seperate evryone into groops.

Most likely Innocent:
Aiwendil
Fordim

For right now I'm gonna accept deese two as innocent, cus of their votes fur spawn yesterday. Take my vote in whuteva way you like But, to me if eider Aiwendil or I wus a wulf, it wuld seem 'ighly illogical to vote fur her, knowing we culd save 'er.

Fordim fur puttin' Spawn a'ed of evryone else, another crucial vote. I dun think a wulf would make such a crucial vote fur anutha wolf so early in the game.

As of right now, acceptin' them as innocent:
Panman
Formendacil

Formendacil, cus of 'is vote fur Spawn, 'es likely innocent. But, 'e could be a wolf who dun think 'is vote would 'ave caused Spawn's death. 'Owever, I take 'im as innocent right now.

Sauce, cuz 'es generally 'elpful. 'Es slightly suspishus cus I dun quite unnerstand 'is votin' reasons yesturday, per'aps 'e can explain?

Nuthin I can do now will change today's outcome.

Dunno wut 'e means when 'e says 'e cant change the outcome now. Per'aps I'm readin' too much into it, but jus' sounds slightly fishy. Though, I s'pose the Seer would of dreamed of 'im the furst night, but I aint gonna take that fur granted.

Unsure:
This is the biggest group, cus I jus' cant get a reddin on 'em. My logic is to try to narrow down as many as possible, cuz the less choices of whos a possible wolf, the better chance of catchin' one. Sumtimes ya jus' cant think if ya got too many names runnin' in yur 'ead. So, I always like too narrows it down a bit. Process of 'liminashun my pa liked to call it.
Gurthang
Lhuna
Wayne
Mormegil
Kath
Wilwarin
Most of deese are unsure cus they aint spekkin' a lot. Which, not spekkin' a lot isn't wolfishness, 'owever it gets ya wonderin'. The only one that 'as been spekkin' more dan the others would be mormegil, but I'm unsure 'bout 'im becus of 'is vote (I'll splain in a minute).

My two biggest surspects:
Rune
Holbytlass
I's been suspishus of these two fur mos' of the day yesturday, and their votes dun 'elp calm my suspishuns. I would 'ave voted fur Holbytlass yesturday, but I dun like the idear of addin' anutha name in, cus we 'ad seven, and logic tells us one is prolly a wolf. So, I jus' dun wanna add anutha name, but Holby and Rune are my two main surspects.

Now frum votin' yesturday. I take (fur today) these three as innocent, cus of the vote.
Fordim
Aiwendil
Formendacil

This leafs us with two wolfs, an' nine peeple total. (I'm excludin' myself, cus wuts the poin'. I'm tryin' to nail a wolf usin' my own 'ead and gut feelin'). One of the three above, may be a wolf, but remember, process of 'liminashun, we wanna liminate as many peeple as possible. 'Least one of these peeple is a wolf.

Panman
mormegil
Kath
Rune
Holbytlass
Wilwarin
Gurthang
Wayne
Lhuna

Right now I 'ave no strong ressin to think Panman is a wolf, so I aint considerin' 'im.

The group I'm interested in, is the ones that voted after Fordim put Spawn up by two.

mormegil (for Gurthang)
Kath (for Fordim)
Holby (for Jack)
Rune (for Wayne)
Wilwarin (for Formendacil)

I shuld surspect one of these as bein' a wulf. Now, I know I've been pretty suspishus of Holby, but I will wait and see sum more, cus I realized she voted fur Jack. This could be a set up by the wolves, but per'aps not, I'll wait fur now.

The mos' suspishus looks to be Rune or Wilwarin. The tied votin' between Spawn, Formendacil, an' Wayne. I shuld surspect one of these wus tryin' to create as much trouble for us innocents at the end on who to chose, an' 'opin we dun pick der buddy. But, it didn't wurk out as planned. So, right now my top surspects are:

1: Rune
2: Wilwarin
3: Holby

[Boromir88]

Correcshun on my las' post, Rune tied things between Spawn, Formen, an' Wayne. Wilwarin broke the tie. I still 'old them as my two big surspects, jus' wanted to correct that.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Boromir

The only one that 'as been spekkin' more dan the others would be mormegil, but I'm unsure 'bout 'im becus of 'is vote (I'll splain in a minute).

I'm not sure you explained. Do you care to?

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Fordim Hedgethistle

I vote for the wolf Spawn and Saucepan Man votes for me, at a time when – as he admits – there is no way I will be lynched, thus preserving my life ...

I voted for you 'cos you looked suspicious to me. Plain an' simple. I don't see 'ow that put you under any more suspicion than a number of others. And, if you are innocent, then, by my reckoning, the reason you (or any other innocent) weren't attacked is 'cos the Wolves thought they'd spotted the Seer.

Originally Posted by Fordim Hedgethistle

Now, in his latest post he's retraced his steps a bit and claims that now he thinks I'm innocent...genuine...or part of a brilliant ploy

Simple fact is you look to be innocent on account of yer having voted fer a Wolf. Sommet I could not have known 'til the Wolf was lynched. Armed with that knowledge, I revised me view of yer. But I am quite 'appy to reconsider if you care to give me reason to.

Originally Posted by Fordim Hedgethistle

Gurthang is still very suspicious to me and not so much for his early voting as for the fact that Spawn defended him.

Good point that, and sommet I'd noticed too. But, as far as 'is early vote is concerned, the same can be said for a nummer of others.

Originally Posted by Fordim Hedgethistle

Like I said, the best strategy for the wolves is to hide by acting different from one another, so I would suggest that we search for one wolf in each group.

But there are two Wolves left and three of yer groups! Although I tend to think that there is a Wolf in each of yer first and third groups. Currently, I would put you (and Formendacil) in yer second group.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

'Es slightly suspishus cus I dun quite unnerstand 'is votin' reasons yesturday, per'aps 'e can explain?

I set out me reasons for voting fer Master Hedgethistle throughout most of what I said yesterday. As I've said, me opinion on 'im has since changed, on account of 'm having helped bag a Wolf.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Dunno wut 'e means when 'e says 'e cant change the outcome now.

Put simply, my crab herding friend, whichever way I voted at that time, Spawn would still have been lynched. The only way I could 'ave affected the result was to 'ave voted for Formendacil, tying 'im with Spawn. Which would 'ave been foolish, as it would 'ave caused a double lynching, and so was not really an option.

One thing afore I go for me morning nap. There's been a lot of talk 'bout Wilwa's vote. Now, before she becomes today's bandwagon, I would ask everyone to consider whether a Wolf would really have voted in the way she did. Not sayin' she's definately innocent. But the obvious Wolfishness of her vote makes it seem un-Wolfish, to my mind.

[The Saucepan Man]

Can't really argue with yer analysis, Master Scholar. Everthin' that I've said 'as been motivated by a genuine desire to catch these 'ere Wolves. But I don't expect you to take my word for that and I don't expect anyone to take me innocence fer granted like. No one is above suspicion and I certainly ain't regarding anyone (including you) as innocent fer sure. That said, there are most definately those as I regard as more suspicious than others.

My thoughts on Wilwa are genuine. I'm not saying she shouldn't come under suspicion. Just suggesting that people consider things that might look suspicious on the face of it from all angles like before castin' their vote. D'you see?

Now, if you don't mind, I need to get me beauty sleep.

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

Well who’d have thunk that, eh? We got ourselves a wolf despite all the odds agin it. Wish I could claim some kind of special credit for having voted against her, but it was luck pure and simple…well…that and the good sense to listen to that there Aiwendil bloke.

So here’s the four who voted for that hairy fiend Spawn:

Formendacil & Me (we voted simultaneously by cross-posting so we’re tied for first)
Boromir88 & Aiwendil (who also voted simultaneously by cross-posting so they’re tied for second)

Much as I would like to claim that these people are all in the clear, I can’t (except for myself, cause I know I’m not a wolf).

Formendacil may have voted for a fellow wolf simply to avoid the appearance that they are working together. A daring move, but not so daring on the first day with votes going all over the place – the odds that his vote would lead to a hanging were slim.

Boromir88 and Aiwendil fall under similar logic. Once I had voted for Spawn, giving her two votes, maybe one of them (or both of them) followed wolfish logic of sacrificing her to get themselves in the clear for good…. And given that Spawn’s vote was for Aiwendil it might have been an elaborate attempt to really put him above all suspicion at the game’s very beginning…

Now that having been said, I think it more than likely that all three of these fellow villagers is innocent, but I can’t be completely sure yet.

And a big thank you to the Man of the Sauce Pan for having guaranteed my survival this night by voting for me. With someone of your considerable capacity and tenacity gunning for me the wolves are going to be sure to leave me alive so that you can continue to try and convince the villagers to lynch an innocent pearl diver…which, now that I think of it, is a wonderful strategy for a wolf…hmmmm…let me see…

1) I suggested a way of detecting wolves – Saucepan Man claims that my strategy is not useful and casts suspicion on me…

2) I vote for the wolf Spawn and Saucepan Man votes for me, at a time when – as he admits – there is no way I will be lynched, thus preserving my life (when Spawn’s fate is already sealed, in part by me, see above) and keeping me around to call suspicion on my head. Now, in his latest post he's retraced his steps a bit and claims that now he thinks I'm innocent...genuine...or part of a brilliant ploy -- "only an innocent would apologise for making that mistake; I am the model of sincerity. Trust me, trust me!"

I have two eyes in my head and they are firmly fixed upon you my good Harbour Master.

Oh but he’s not alone: Gurthang is still very suspicious to me and not so much for his early voting as for the fact that Spawn defended him. There's been some talk of him being the cobbler, which does make a certain amount of sense to me: he's certainly been complicating things and saying much while contributing little of real clarity. If I had to vote right now, I can thinks of where my vote might go....but there's still a day to go....

And that Lhuna is mighty tricksy it seems. Says this about mormegil:

Seer comments on Aiwendil's suggestion came off a bit scary to me, I don't know why.

And this about Spawn:

does not suspect Gurthang's early voting. Has doubts on Aiwendil's Seer suggestion.

Now why, I ask, are morm’s doubts about Aiwendil’s suggestion “scary” to her, but Spawn’s “doubts” pass without real comment? Then she goes and votes for an extremely ‘easy’ target, the early-but-infrequent poster Wayne.

I wants to be clear -- I've been casting quite a bit of suspicion about here but I'm making no accusations, as yet. This is all in the first flush of my horror for the loss of our Seer and an immediate reaction to what happened yesterday. Those as I've looked at here may very well say things this day that remove them from my sights -- while others as are currently looking innocent may make me nervous.

I still says that the trick here is to identify groups -- folk as seem to act alike. So far, I think we can lump together

Rune
Wayne
Gurthang

as the suspicious looking ones, saying or not doing things that makes them stand out -- stupid wolves? clumsy innocents?

Boromir88
Aiwendil
Saucepan Man

as the 'known' (too-good-to-be-true?) innocents..or ar they brilliant wolves?

Wilwarin
Formendacil
mormegil
Holbytlass
Kath
Lhuna

as the hapless innocents -- don't seem to be proceeding with any particular agenda of any sort, seem to be guessing and almost niaf (for example, mistakenly voting for people...)

Like I said, the best strategy for the wolves is to hide by acting different from one another, so I would suggest that we search for one wolf in each group.

Oh yes, as for meself -- well, I know I'm not a wolf so I would probably fit into group one or two, depending on your view of me.

[Lhunardawen]

But first off:

Originally Posted by Fordim

Now why, I ask, are morm’s doubts about Aiwendil’s suggestion “scary” to her, but Spawn’s “doubts” pass without real comment? Then she goes and votes for an extremely ‘easy’ target, the early-but-infrequent poster Wayne.

That, kind sir, is called a little girl's un-understandable mind. I told you I didn't know why Mister mormegil's comments were scary, they just were. Maybe because he was looking through a werewolf's perspective in his doubt, I don't know. But then I was hesitant to vote for either of them because I think they were both being a bit sensible. I voted for Mister Wayne because he did absolutely nothing, and that for me is irksome. It is better for me if a person does something the least bit suspicious than if he/she does nothing at all to help us determine if he/she is innocent or not.

*sigh* Anyways, my rambling.

Lady Kath - living up to her bum-ness? Too 'detached' from the game, too cool and dispassionate. Her not caring much for her mistake involving Fordim and Formendacil (voting for the former while describing the latter in her explanation) was unsettling, plus the explanation was lousy. Could be an honest mistake, could be not. "Suspected" Jack but did not vote for him. I think she's scaring me a bit. Only a werewolf could not care less about a life - anyone's life - and treat it so lightly. My vote could be in this direction toDay.

Mister mormegil - if he were a wolf, he could have voted for me, Wayne, Formendacil, or Aiwendil to create a tie with spawn and possibly save her. Voted for Gurthang, giving a different interpretation to the words of Aiwendil that pushed spawn to her death. Helpful much, and could be a target for Night death. As yet, still worth watching.

Mister Fordim - his grouping technique made a bit sense, but its being stereotypical is unsettling. Gave very sensible reason behind his vote, and since I don't think a wolf would vote for a fellow wolf on the first Day - and push her to death that much - I think for now he's innocent. Then again, he could be the basket the wolves are placing all their eggs into, we never know. That would be too risky, though.

Mister Wayne - a hiding wolf, or an innocent with really nothing to say? If this is how he will be in our plight I think we're better off without him; if he's innocent, at least he's one less to think about. Now that's not very polite, is it not Lhuna? Well I'm not voting for him again for now and will give him a chance to speak up and be of any help.

Mister Gurthang - I still believe he's innocent and just trying to spark conversation in his early vote. After all, the first Day's pretty much random. His analysis of himself could be a ploy to attract to himself attention: hiding in the open or sacrificial ordo? Claims innocence and helpfulness. I lean towards believing him now.

Lady wilwarin - senseless to repeat everything said about her, but I commend you all for seeing these things. She didn't worry me yesterday, but now I see that there is reason to worry.

I'm willing to let Holby, Formendacil, and Rune be for now.

I am inclined to believe that Misters Aiwendil, Boromir88, and SpM are innocent, the latter I trust was revealed by our Seer before his death.

Not much time! Must vote!

++Kath, begging your pardon.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Holbytlass

Aiwendil waits to see what becomes of her(post63) then joins the bandwaggon to be part of bagging a wolf.

As far as I can make out, there was never really a “Spawn bandwagon”. The votes were evenly split amongst a number of candidates for most of the day. Also, Aiwendil did not turn on Spawn at the end of the day when he saw she was likely to be lynched. He had been voicing his suspicion of her throughout. If anyone “turned” on Spawn at the end, it was Boromir88.

Still, yer accusation of Aiwendil, who seems to be tentatively trusted by most, speaks in yer favour, to my mind Mistress Holby. A Wolf is unlikely to go against the flow like that.

Originally Posted by Formendacil

... with so many votes coming up for me, it is quite likely that at least one of the Wolves voted for Spawn, thinking it a safe vote.

A vote for Spawn was never really a “safe” Wolfish vote, given the close nature of the voting. And it seems to me that both Aiwendil and Boromir88 were aware of the likelihood that the other would vote for Spawn when they voted.

Originally Posted by Gurthang

In a few days, if Master Saucepan has not been killed by the wolves, I will examine him more closely. For now, he's on the 'look at later' shelf.

Well that’s just dandy, Gurthang me lad. If I don’t get mauled by Wolves, I get misself lynched for bein’ one! Damned if I do, damned if I don’t. Leastways, you’ve given the Wolves a reason not to kill me for the time being.

Oh, one more thing ‘bout Mistress Wilwa’s vote. Had Jack not died last night, much the same could be said ‘bout ‘is vote for Formendacil as is bein’ said ‘bout ‘ers. An’ ‘e was our Seer.

Like our Crab Farmer, it seems to me to be sensible to eliminate from my current thoughts those who have said or done things that are more likely to suggest their innocence than their guilt. Sommet to do with some Razor used by a bloke called Occam.

On that basis, I am discounting from my current considerations:

Aiwendil
Boromir88
Fordim Hedgethistle
Formendacil
Holbytlass
Wilwarin538

It should be clear from what I’ve said why I regard each of them as more likely to be innocent than guilty, though please note that I am not dismissing any of ‘em entirely. Just discounting ‘em for current purposes.

So, unless things change dramatically, my vote today will most probably come from the remaining group.

[Kath]

Apologies for my detachedness Lhuna, but bumming is a hard pasttime to keep up with! I have found a way to avoid confusion between Fordim and Formendacil now so there need be no worries about that. I'm quite glad now though that my misvote happened, because I fear that had I voted for Formendacil as intended it might have been him who was lynched and not spawn, who I must admit to having had no suspicions of whatsoever! My suspicion of Jack was because I could find nothing else to be suspicious of. Though I had seen nothing in his posts to indicate Seerness as well, which makes me think we must have some extremely clever wolves.

Which brings me onto the thought I had while reading through this. Saucepan Man has cleared himself via Jack's words. In terms of associations I would be looking at Sauce and morm.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Mistress Lhuna

If this is how [Wayne] will be in our plight I think we're better off without him

Not if 'e be gifted ...

Originally Posted by that no good layabout Kath

Saucepan Man has cleared himself via Jack's words.

Well, course I'm satisfied of me own innocence. But, as I've made clear, I don't expect anyone else to take it for granted. I do believe that Jack dreamed of me and left a hint should he die. Whether you believe that or not 's up to you.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Originally Posted by Boromir

The mos' suspishus looks to be Rune or Wilwarin. The tied votin' between Spawn, Formendacil, an' Wayne. I shuld surspect one of these wus tryin' to create as much trouble for us innocents at the end on who to chose, an' 'opin we dun pick der buddy. But, it didn't wurk out as planned. So, right now my top surspects are:

I dont get it earlyer in your post you say that me and Hobly is your 2 main suspectsm why the change? Seems a bit odd.

Yes I did make it a tie and when I did so I realised it might seem a bit wolfish. Anyhow I still belive it was the right ting to do.

1. Because the tie was allready there, my vote did not create any possibilety of a dubbel lynch. (exept if no one votet after me) May I remind you that I did not vote 10. min. before time but an hour, plenty of time for people to change the outcome.

2. As Borormir says I wantet to create other possibeltys than just, Spawn and Formendacil as they both seemed non-wolfish to me.

3. I fully share Lhuna's view of wayne!

Originally Posted by Lhuna

Mister Wayne - a hiding wolf, or an innocent with really nothing to say? If this is how he will be in our plight I think we're better off without him; if he's innocent, at least he's one less to think about.

to this Sauce Pan said:

Not if 'e be gifted ...

Just brilliant. . .

We dont know! and will never know until the giftet are dead. Not even if they give us 1000 clues can we know, it could just as well be a wolf trying to stay alive. Plus Wayne will never be able to give us those clues if does not change and how can the wolves not figure out if he does that?

I just can't see Wayne beeing of any use in the village. He will allways be a souce of doubt, I know I will never be sure about him. (unless somting drastic happens)

I will return with more suspisions and accusations later. (It is way more fun than having to defend your self)

[Boromir88]

I'm not sure you explained. Do you care to?

I sed I wus unsure 'bout you cus of your vote. The others on the lis' cus they aint talkin' a lot. But I said these votes looks suspishus, and one may possibly be a wulf.

The group I'm interested in, is the ones that voted after Fordim put Spawn up by two.

mormegil (for Gurthang)
Kath (for Fordim)
Holby (for Jack)
Rune (for Wayne)
Wilwarin (for Formendacil)

So, therefur I'm unsure 'bout you.

If anyone “turned” on Spawn at the end, it was Boromir88.

I dun surspect Spawn through mos' of the day yesturday, but before I voted, I did explain my reasonin'. I wanted to vote fur my biggest surspect (Holby), but there were seven peeple voted fur so far, so logical tells us one was prolly a wulf. I dun think why a big hype was aroun' Formendacil. Wayne 'as disappeared, but quietness aint no sign of a wulf. So, I said I would vote for Spawn (who above all the peeple with the multiple votes wus the mos' suspishus) or vote fur sumone else with one vote.

Also, 'for I voted I wanted to make sure the othuh voters were there, cus, it was gettin' close and I dun wanna end it in a tie. When I 'eard Aiwendil there, and 'e sed 'e wuld vote fur Spawn, I decided too too. (An' I tell you lucky I did, or we may 'ave killed Formen yesturday)

Now I as' you, and this may make me surspected, but I dun care. If yous peeple werent so busy talkin' 'bout all these cunnin' wolf tricks, you might be catchin' the real perpetrators who are obvious wulfs. Sumtimes da answers are sittin' right in front of yur faces, but you cant see 'em, cus your too concentrated on sumone trickin' you.

But, dis may get me surspected...if I wus a wulf, and knowin' Aiwendil wus votin' fur Spawn, why the 'eck wuld I vote fur her, wid Formendacil up by one vote at the time?

No, throw out all this nonsense about wulves tryin' to throw a blanket over our eyes. The only peeple throwin' blanket over our eyes, is you durn peeple that try to think up these crazy theories.

If we's a gonna fin' a wulf we got to do process of 'limination. We gotta narrow down as many peeple that we gotta pick frum. It's easy fur the wulves, cus they already know, but fur innocents we gotta narrow sum peeple down. Now, like Panman, based on votin', or jus' cus they dun seem suspishus, these peeple seem innocent, an' we shuldnt consider votin' fur today.

Formendacil
Fordim
Panman
Aiwendil

Now, sum more 'ere. Sir Fordim brings up Gurthang, and the only thing that troubles me with Gurthang is you said you were tryin' to protect the Seer. This dun make sense, cus yur basically tellin' the wulves..."HEY I'M NOT THE SEER, BUT I'M TRYIN' TO LOOK LIKE IT SO KILL ME". Sorry, sir, but that aint gonna wurk, whys the wulves kills you if you admit yur not the seer, but admit ur tryin' to look like 'im? Looks pretty suspishus.

Also, a not on Wilwa. See I wuld tend to agree with Panman, and think why wuld a wulf make such an open mistake an' break the tie, for sumone who seems innocent? Well, this does look like quite a big slip up fur a wulf. But, I mus' ask Panman, per'aps Wilwa dun anticipate the death of Spawn, why should she if da peeple lef' to vote were me, Aiwendil, and Panman, and nun of us really shewed big interes' in lynchin' Spawn? So, per'aps Wilwa felt it was a safe vote, an' that Spawn wusnt gonna be lynched.

'Owever, I think right now Rune looks the mos' suspishus, cus 'e tied everythin' up. And no matter wut 'appens, on who's lynched, it looks like a decently safe vote fur a wulf. So, Rune right now is my biggest surspect still.

[Boromir88]

I dont get it earlyer in your post you say that me and Hobly is your 2 main suspectsm why the change? Seems a bit odd.

I' alreadin' explained the reasin' me tinks our unionboss needs to take reedin' classes agin.

Now, I know I've been pretty suspishus of Holby, but I will wait and see sum more, cus I realized she voted fur Jack. This could be a set up by the wolves, but per'aps not, I'll wait fur now.

I mark it as a set up by the wulves.

Wulves like to do a few things.

1) Keep peeple alive who are the main surspects. As long as the 'ave the peeple who are the main surspects aroun' it makes findin' a wulf 'arder.

2) Set peeple up. They like to make it seem sum peeple as bein' more suspishus (say by killin' the person that sumone else voted fur). And that's what I think the case with Holby is (as of right now), she was set up. The wulves killed the person she voted fur to make 'er look mor' suspishus.

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

A vote for Spawn was never really a “safe” Wolfish vote, given the close nature of the voting. And it seems to me that both Aiwendil and Boromir88 were aware of the likelihood that the other would vote for Spawn when they voted.

True enough, I suppose. All the same, past experience should tell most of us that Wolves can do some very unlikely things- both rational and irrational.

However, looking at these three, none of them is really leaping forward as a potential Wolf, although I still think it likely that one of them could be hiding in there. And, since I said I would, I'll do some analysis on them...

Starting in alphabetical order...

Aiwendil has, as expected of someone with his well-known intellect, blended into the game quite well. He's kept a fairly low profile, staying out of the spotlight, while being present enough and thoughtful enough to not be considered "quiet". He could be a quiet, clever, risk-taking wolf, or he could be the innocent he seems to be.

Boromir88 has amused/annoyed us with his "dialectial differences" so far in the game- which could be a simple innocent's way of having fun, or a clever wolf's distracting ploy. There's a lot of thoughtful, serious content in his posts, but the first thing one gets out them is his dropped "g"s and his "wulves". And a clever ploy it would be, for most roleplaying players of Werewolf tend to be innocents- at least in the games I've played.

Wilwa has kept a pretty low profile this game- which could be a Werewolf lying low while more vocal innocents capture all the attention, or it could be the woes of a school-aged girl, or it could be the growing experience of a Werewolf player (I remember my steadfast conviction in her Werewolfishness a few games ago, totally unproven, that would likely not have happened had she played a more quiet, serious hand). Whether this proves Werewolfishness or not, I am clueless.

As I said, SPM is right that none of the three are really suspicious. However, I think I am justified in saying that any of the three COULD be Werewolves.

Oh, and to answer a question that Aiwendil had:

What was so suspicious about Formendacil?

Since Day 1 has no past evidence to go off of, the voting is more truly random than on any of the subsequent days. I guess proclaiming oneself a Werewolf (even in sarcasm) is as a good an excuse as any to vote for someone...

[Holbytlass]

I dismiss Morm's plan, there are too many factors in people's lives that could be seen as wolfish in a one day forced vote. Generally, wolves are caught by their voting record over a period of days.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Fordim Hedgethistle

There are some hereabouts who already seem to have been given suits of armour that would seem to guarantee their innocence ...

I bain’t regarding anyone’s innocence as guaranteed. But I am sticking with me method of narrowing the field down by discounting, for present purposes, those who seem to me to be least guilty. I listed them earlier. I don’t deny that there may be a Wolf among ‘em, but it’s quite possible there ain’t.

As for the others (among whom I am sure there is at least one Wolf and quite possibly two):

Gurthang: Now ‘e’s explained ‘isself a bit more fully, I can see that there is some sense in what ‘e says. But, if ‘e was tryin’ to protect the Seer, ‘e made a pretty ham-fisted job of it. ‘Tis possible ‘is intentions were good, but Mistress Holby makes some good points against ‘im. So I still ‘ave my eye on ‘im. Earlier, I thought ‘e might be a good candidate for Cobbler, but I reckon a Cobbler would bide ‘is time a bit longer afore trying to spread confusion.

Kath: Bain’t said much, but what she ‘as said ‘as involved twistin’ words to suggest they mean sommet which they don’t. She did it yesterday with Jack and she done the same thing today with me (see #98 and my response at #99). ‘Er vote yesterday is mildly suspicious, being as it widened the field with Spawn on 2 votes. Claims not to ‘ave spotted the clues to young Jack’s Seerishness, which may well be true (I didn’t misself ‘til after I learned of his death), but it seems slightly Wolfish to make a point of it. Other than commenting on mormegil’s and my opinion that Jack dreamed of me, has made no accusations today, which may suggest that she is trying to give as little away as possible.

Lhunadarwen: Another who claims not to have spotted the Seer clues (as to which see me comments above with regard to Kath). I found ‘er comments about Wayne slightly worrying since, as I pointed out earlier, ‘tis ‘is way to say little, and we shouldn’t do away with ‘im on account of that alone – not just yet, anyways. Other than that, not much to go on. I don’t regard her early vote as particularly suspicious, as there is good reason for it.

Mormegil: ‘Is vote yesterday is mildly suspicious, for the same reason that Kath’s vote is. ‘E seems to be ‘elpful ‘n all, but the very fact that there is little to pin ‘im down on concerns me slightly. Still, I can’t see any solid grounds for voting for him. There be a few points as I’d like ‘im to explain, though, which I will come to in a mo’.

Rune: There is sommet not quite right about our union boss, and I bain’t just talkin’ ‘bout ‘is troublesome political views. ‘Is vote yesterday is more than slightly suspicious. As others ‘ave said, it created a three-way tie and might be seen as a way of lessenin’ the chances of Spawn bein’ lynched. Some’ow, ‘is comments today seem overly defensive to me, and ‘e’s made no accusations whatsoever, as far as I can see, other than to support Lhuna’s comments ‘bout Wayne. Nor ‘as ‘e said much that I would regard as helpful in tryin’ to track down these ‘ere Wolves. If anyone is tryin’ to stay uncontroversial and not say ought which might be used against ‘im (aka tryin’ to fly unner the radar), ‘tis Rune. An’ ‘e too claims not to ‘ave spotted the Seer clues (as to which, see me comments on Kath). Taken separately, none of these points mean very much. But they do all add up in me mind to give me a bad feelin’ ‘bout ‘im.

Wayne: What can I say? Wayne’s Wayne an’ ‘e don’t change. ‘E could be a Wolf, but there’s not a lot to go on other than ‘is continuin’ tit-fer-tat against Lhuna. A day may come when I will vote for Wayne, when it’s a choice between ‘im an’ those I regard as less suspicious, but ‘tis not this day. I’m prepared to give ‘im the benefit of the doubt for now.

All of which means that I’ve narrowed down me suspects, for today at least, to three: Gurthang, Kath and Rune.

Now, Master mormegil, a few questions if you don’t mind. You’ve outlined yer suspicions ‘bout Wilwa before and I understand ‘em, even if I don’t agree with ‘em. But I am unclear as to why Rune and Formen now feature among your top suspects. Would you care to explain why you suspect ‘em?

Originally Posted by mormegil

There has been some decent discussion today but I would like to recommend a little plan that may or may not put some heat on our wolves.

I can’t see too much difference betwixt yer plan and what’s likely to ‘appen in practice anyways. Those who are seen as most suspicious will accumulate votes and we can see ‘ow those who vote later react. How is your plan any different? Mayhaps you are just suggestin’ that we should be organisin’ a shortlist of candidates. But, if that be the case, ‘ow do you suggest that shortlist be selected? Surely it would be open to manipulation by our two remaining Wolves and yon Cobbler.

And now, ‘aving seen Fordim’s (de)constructive comments on yer plan, I find misself in agreement with ‘im.

I will most probably vote near the deadline again, as is my wont. But, if you're after finding out who I am most suspicious of, well I’ve named ‘em above.

[mormegil]

Now, Master mormegil, a few questions if you don’t mind. You’ve outlined yer suspicions ‘bout Wilwa before and I understand ‘em, even if I don’t agree with ‘em. But I am unclear as to why Rune and Formen now feature among your top suspects. Would you care to explain why you suspect ‘em?

Now Saucie you can't really expect me to tell you everything I think and don't. Often times I suspect some I don't list and one or two on my lists I might not suspect as much. I'll leave it at that though one person I meant to add to that list was Gurthang. He's just not sitting right with me.

In regards to Formendacil I will say this, in years as a repairmen I've met a lot of people and learned a lot of things not related to repairmanship so I've picked up a bit of Werewolf Lore in my day. I learned of a subterfuge that can be successfully implemented it's affectionately called The Fea. I am rather familar with this approach, more so than all of you expect maybe our local bum, and what Formendacil did on Day 1 by claiming to be a wolf is a text book move for The Fea. So I will not write him off though I did say on day one it seemed to be sarcastic rhetoric. I'm still watching him and hoping for him to say a bit more so I can either be convinced of his innocence of his guilt.

Oh and consider my plan to be off the table. No offense was taken by any who were critical of it. I didn't know if it would work myself, but I wanted to present it anyway.

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

As the time I will have available to engage in this here debate is coming to a close in the next couple of hours (I will have to vote by no later than 4:30 EST) I suppose as I have to start thinking about where to cast that vote. I was a-hoping that there might be some voting action to begin with but so far there’s only been the one cast by Lhuna for Kath.

Well, to be blunt and honest, I still don’t have a good read on who the wolves may be, but that’s to be expected I suppose after only two DAYs. So’s I suppose I’ll have to give it me best shot using what criteria I have:

1. Good chance of being a wolf, based on votes and actions this DAY as argued for by other folk
2. Not too great a loss if innocent
3. May be innocent, but if a wolf, far too dangerous to leave alive
4. Just seems to be acting wolfishly, either because:
4.1 Making unfounded accusations
4.2 Carefully controlling the conversation with occasional comments that implicate without committing
4.3 Suggesting plans of action that I ain’t so sure will work out
4.4 Being too blasted quiet
4.5. Being too blasted noisy

Aiwendil: 3, 4.2 (2)

Boromir88: 3, 4.2 (2)

Fordim Hedgethistle: I ain’t no wolf. (0)

Formendacil: 3, 4.4 (2)

Gurthang: 1, 2, 4.1, 4.3, 4.5 (5)

Holbytlass: 1, 2, 4.2 (3)

Kath: 4.1, 4.4 (2)

Lhunardawen: 1, 2, 4.1 (3)

Mormegil: 1, 4.3, 4.5 (3)

Rune Son of Bjarne: 1, 2, 4.4 (3)

The Saucepan Man: 1, 3, 4.2, 4.5 (4)

WaynetheGoblin: 1, 2, 4.4 (3)

Wilwarin538: 1, 4.4 (2)

Well, I have to admit that I’m surprised that The Man with the Pan for Sauce is in second place! I would have thought that he would be much lower down the list, so either me method is suspect (which I hope it ain’t as it’s all I’ve got right now) or I really do needs to keep an eye on that feller.

I’m also surprised by the number of folk who’ve scored threes: Wayne, Rune, morm, Lhuna and Holby

But there’s only as one there that’s got five points agin him: Gurthang. I ain’t going to vote yet, not yet I ain’t – I want to give it the last hour that I have…

[mormegil]

Just by way of update we have a total of 3 of 13 votes though Wayne said that he wouldn't be voting so 4 of 13 if we believe him

Lhuna voted for Kath
SpM voted for Rune
Fordim voted for Gurthang

All are worthy candidates in my opinion. I expect to see both Rune and Gurthang wait till late to vote.

But let it be known that if Wayne doesn't begin to participate a bit more this lowly repairman will be willing to get rid of the town doctor though it may cause me some pains when I hit my finger on a hammer. I don't like overly quiet people especially when there is no vote.