Tol-in-Gaurhoth XIII: Enter Shamville

[littlemanpoet]

Sorry for not showing up sooner for the discussion. Getting Wilwa unimpaled, making fake eyes, making them fit just right, cleaning up all the blood, cleaning and clothing the corpse in Wilwa's best, digging the grave, scribbling all kinds of bad rough drafts for the epitaph, it all takes time.

Thanks again for the confidence in my innocence, Firefoot. I promise you that it will not go unrewarded (as much as in my power as a fellow innocent).

Lalaith, I don't buy your "surprised" act.

I also don't understand, Firefoot, why you're looking so hard at tar-ancalime when it was her use of Occam's Razor that singled out Kitanna as a must-be werewolf. She was at a point of initiative when she did that, which speaks against her being a werewolf. Think, why would a werewolf start a bandwagon against her much-needed cohort? No, it looks much more like a process of deduction and figuring things out for the best of the group.

I still think Glirdan is innocent, and I think we should go after the one upon whom his suspicion has most consistently rested. Though he's not a known innocent, his behavior in this village, even for a jester, has been all too consistent, in my mind, for him to be a werewolf, and thus his suspicion needs to be given a good look.

And remember, Lalaith is the one villager who has spent the most time "imagining things from the werewolves' perspective". Now, why would she do that so much? Could it be because she's the werewolf? She has a lot to answer for, and had better start defending herself convincingly, or she gets my vote.

[Eonwe]

what a shocking development.

right, tar has my suspicions. i would like to think i did my fair share in catching kitanna. if you look at it in those terms (lets face it, whatever you want to call it, bluffing, confusationing, place your own word here, wayne posted that kitanna was a wolf. unforetunately, i was the only one to see it.) then tar had a very, very worthwhile reason for getting kitanna lynched. your own arguemtns back this up (though, because this is werewolf, you could of course use it or discard it...)

lets see if i can dig up anything else...

[Glirdan]

Wilwa, my dear old friend, may you rest in peace. I'm afraid to say that my time here will be very limited if I last throughout. You will not be seeing a whole lot of me today. I've been mourning the loss of our dear Seer.

*In other words, I had rehersahall and I just got home about fifteen minutes ago*

I'm not entirely sure anymore of who the final Wolf could be. Seeing as Kitanna was the final Wolf, it is highly likely that tar or Lalaith is the final Wolf. I'm now pretty much completely sure of Lmp's innocence. His posts yesterDay really made me think. We really need to find the final Wolf, or else there's a possiblity that he/she might attack the person who is Cursed. I suggest really looking into tar today, yet Lalaith is not at all cleared, not at all.

I also don't understand, Firefoot, why you're looking so hard at tar-ancalime when it was her use of Occam's Razor that singled out Kitanna as a must-be werewolf.

I know this was directed at Firefoot, but let me give me my reasoning for agreeing with her. Tar, Wayne and Kitanna have all been the really quiet ones of the village. They have all suspected each other (or, at least I think they did) and in this way, they thought they'd all be able to distance themselves. They way I see it, tar using the Occam's Razor was their way of Kitanna dropping out and at the same time, an excuse for tar to use to distance and clear herself. I really think that we should be taking a closer look at tar toDay. And you're all going to probably be very susprised at what I'm about to say, she seems more suspicious than Lalaith.

[Firefoot]

Hm... maybe so.

I'll be honest, I probably have not been giving Lalaith as much consideration as I probably should have. She is the one who I had thought was the Seer; her posting style seemed strongly reminscent of it. Obviously this is not the case. Oftentimes gifted villagers do come off as seeming guilty; I suppose the opposite could well be true in this case. And maybe the wolves really did intend for all of them to vote the same way, hoping to throw us off track as I have been. I can see the sense in wanting to vote for Lalaith.

You bring up a valid point about tar having started the bandwagon for Kitanna; this was something I had not considered. I'll admit that I have been looking very little at the voting of the past few days as both have been largely one-directional.

Originally posted by Lalaith:
Why did you do that Kitanna? The field was still open, there were five of us left to vote...and I for one would only have voted for you if I had to, to save myself. You're not very high on my list of suspects.

When viewed in a "I think she might be a wolf" light, this comment definitely seems suspicious. Also, her continued insistence that no one be discounted (her "don't forget LMP" comment to me, for example), could be seen as evidence that she does not want the field to be narrowed so much because that would mean a higher chance of her getting lynched. Hm... this is looking more convincing to me all the time. I'm surprised I didn't pick up on it before. Goes back to that "once you see someone as a wolf, it's easy to keep on seeing them as a wolf..." The opposite is true as well.

Edit: cross-posting with Eonwe and Glirdan, making me start to wonder about tar again...

[littlemanpoet]

Well, I'm going to throw an extra wrinkle into this.

We may have what I would call the "bait and switch" bluff. It goes like this. Glirdan has spent the entire time accusing and suspecting Lalaith, and pretty much nobody followed his lead. Finally, I started taking him seriously, and now he goes and switches to tar-ancalime, just when there's a real possibility of a consensus developing around Lalaith. Could it be that Glirdan doesn't want Lalaith's status known for sure?

Now, the same thing could be said of me, having been after Glirdan the whole time, then suddenly switching away from him to Lalaith. But nobody else was following me after Glirdan at any point, so if I had been doing a bait and switch, I failed to wait until somebody took the bait. Hence, it doesn't obtain in my case.

And something Firefoot said made me think: gifteds often look guilty. Lalaith looks guilty to me, and there's only one gifted left. Does that combination make sense? Has the remaining werewolf picked up on this and left Lalaith alive for fear of a demise should it attack her at night? I don't know, that's pure speculation.

But that gives me another thought. Since there's only one werewolf left, three known innocents, and one gifted, would it be better for the Hunter to stay hidden, or reveal?

Let's say the Hunter is NOT one of the three known innocents. It's not me, by the way. If the Hunter reveals toDay, what are the choices facing the werewolf? Any ideas?

[tar-ancalime]

Tar, Wayne and Kitanna have all been the really quiet ones of the village. They have all suspected each other (or, at least I think they did) and in this way, they thought they'd all be able to distance themselves. They way I see it, tar using the Occam's Razor was their way of Kitanna dropping out and at the same time, an excuse for tar to use to distance and clear herself.

Have I really been quiet? I suppose the number of my posts has been relatively few, but I'd like to think that I have made up in substance what I lacked in frequency. If not, I do apologize.

Now, as to the unfortunately pervasive idea that a wolf-ancalime lurks among you:

On the advice of our Seer we killed Wayne, ridding the village of one wolf.

The very next DAY we killed Kitanna, taking down another and leaving us with only one, whom we can get toDAY if we vote correctly!

I was the first to vote for Kitanna. I voted quite early due to RL time constraints, it is true; but I voted with conviction. Would a wolf give up her fellow in this way, only a DAY after losing Wayne? Please, give me a little more credit than that!

Also, I'd like to ask Firefoot and Eonwe:

If I'm suspicious, why follow me and vote for Kitanna? If I'm a wolf, wouldn't I lead you down the garden path, so to speak?

And for Lalaith: I can't for the life of me see why you would vote for Kitanna, then post the following:

I confess that you could have knocked me down with one of my own goose feathers when I found out Kitanna's wolf status.

Why on earth would you vote for her if you didn't think she was a wolf?

I apologize for my brevity; I shall certainly be back later in the DAY, but that is all I have time for at the moment. We have a chance to end this toDAY, and I want to see it done.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by tar-ancalime

And for Lalaith: I can't for the life of me see why you would vote for Kitanna, then post the following:

Why on earth would you vote for her if you didn't think she was a wolf?

Well done, tar. I already didn't trust her. Now I'm as good as convinced.

I am tempted to up and vote right now for Lalaith, but I think I'd like to hear from her first.

[Glirdan]

Glirdan has spent the entire time accusing and suspecting Lalaith, and pretty much nobody followed his lead. Finally, I started taking him seriously, and now he goes and switches to tar-ancalime, just when there's a real possibility of a consensus developing around Lalaith. Could it be that Glirdan doesn't want Lalaith's status known for sure?

Sorry for the confusion Lmp. I'm not saying that I'm not still suspicious of Lalaith. I'm saying that I find there's still a lot of evidence pointing towards tar being guilty.

Have I really been quiet? I suppose the number of my posts has been relatively few, but I'd like to think that I have made up in substance what I lacked in frequency. If not, I do apologize.

You have been a little quiet. You spoke more than the other two, yet quiet enought to remain under suspicion until a few Days ago.

I was the first to vote for Kitanna. I voted quite early due to RL time constraints, it is true; but I voted with conviction. Would a wolf give up her fellow in this way, only a DAY after losing Wayne? Please, give me a little more credit than that!

I've already stated my reasoning for this right here:

The way I see it, tar using the Occam's Razor was their way of Kitanna dropping out and at the same time, an excuse for tar to use to distance and clear herself.

Draw from that what you might. But I still find that we should investigate tar more.

[Glirdan]

And now I'm afraid to say that I have to cast my vote and I will go for the person I have been attacking constantly.

++Lalaith

I really hope I'm right in this.

*Don't take my amount of voting and time of vote into consideration. I'm having to cope with RL situations and events (rehersalls and other stuff)*

[tar-ancalime]

But that gives me another thought. Since there's only one werewolf left, three known innocents, and one gifted, would it be better for the Hunter to stay hidden, or reveal?

Let's say the Hunter is NOT one of the three known innocents. It's not me, by the way. If the Hunter reveals toDay, what are the choices facing the werewolf? Any ideas?

This is an interesting topic, and here are my thoughts on it:

The Hunter, whomever he/she is, should probably not reveal him/herself. Revealing the Hunter at this point would only help the wolf.

A revealed Hunter is an obvious target for our remaining wolf, and as soon as possible: the wolf would likely try to take the Hunter down while the pool of suspects is as large as possible to lessen the probability of being the Hunter's target. The longer the Hunter stays anonymous, though, the less-appealing of a target s/he makes because of the increased likelihood of the wolf's going down too.

The Hunter, on the other hand, by simply staying alive as long as possible, only increases his/her chances that s/he will choose the right person, because the pool of possible suspects will grow smaller and smaller...provided we don't end the game toDAY, of course, in which case the Hunter's role is (happily) moot.

So, my advice is: unless the Hunter is absolutely sure of the wolf's identity and is looking to provoke a showdown, he or she should keep mum, at least for the next short while. As always, things change so fast that this advice may not hold; but it seems to me that for now the Hunter's best move is to keep quiet.