Tol-in-Gaurhoth XIII: Enter Shamville

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Glirdan

Care to explain yourself here Lmp? I'm quite confuse at what you mean.

Oh, that was just an expression for visual effect. Just an exaggeration to bring home the point.

[wilwarin538]

I have an idea of maybe why the wolves chose to kill Celuin.

Everyone yesterday wanted the Ranger to protect me, so it was pretty obvious that the wolves weren't even going to and kill me. Maybe they thought that the ranger would not protect me, and protect either Firefoot or Anguirel. Since it was very unlikely the wolves would choose me. So perhaps the wolves couldn't decide between us three who to kill, since they weren't sure of which of us was protected by the Ranger. Then they just chose someone else at random. That person ended up being the Ranger.

Just an idea, it seems to cover everything.

[Eonwe]

no time to really post. i've read everything posted today.
current suspects:

kittana

why? i still believe i wasn't on drugs or anything couple nights ago. meaning im pretty darn sure wayne deleted his post naming kittana as a wolf. and would he delete it? rethought an unsubtle move? i dunno. but looking at kittana (especially if you are suspicious already. guess that always helps, as lmp says ) i don't like it. if i was the wolf i would try to defend people i knew would to be innocent. because taht would make me look good. i looked into it couple days ago, and kittana is doing just that. everything she says makes sense, because she's pretty much omnicient when it come to the clearcut wolf or innocent. all she has to do is keep up her retoric, telling people things that are true, but not daming. if you see waht i mean...think - dout! can't do that...

everyone else but lmp and the known innocnets, as for now. i'll try to come up with some kind of analyzis on everyone later on tonight.

two more things: wilwa must be assumed to be the seer now. if she's not, the real seer surely would realize the amount of damage that she would be doing. not to mention wayne...

mmmmm...waht was teh other...can't remember.

[wilwarin538]

when i was the wolf in wwjii

That is definetely not aloud.

[Eonwe]

eeep. your right.

excuse me spawn.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Eonwe

i still believe i wasn't on drugs or anything couple nights ago. meaning im pretty darn sure wayne deleted his post naming kittana as a wolf. and would he delete it? rethought an unsubtle move? i dunno.

Maybe it did happen. But why would Wayne do it? Bad sportsmanship? I really, really doubt it, though the thought briefly crossed my mind. My guess would be that seeing that the seer had pointed him out, he considered and almost went through with a desperate move to seem like the seer himself. If that was what he was doing, there's no guarantee that the person named is actually a werewolf. So that seems like a possible "wash" to me. Consider: if there was a case of "duelling seers", Wayne would face a 50/50 chance of getting lynched and surviving one more Day, and potentially getting the real seer lynched instead, which would be a huge coup for the werewolves. Except that I think he figured out that if people had to choose, they would choose Wilwa for the seer and Wayne for the werewolf, hoping for the best, and decided that it wouldn't be such a great idea after all. Who he charged with being a werewolf is largely irrelevant. Besides, I think we all would rather look at the evidence that still is available, rather than the iffy chance that this actually occurred. I understand that you're trying to be as helpful as possible, but I think we might as well stick to what we can be more sure of. What do you say, Eonwe?

[tar-ancalime]

Celuien?

This has been done already, but please bear with me as I bravely go where...so many have gone before...and do it again.

Assuming that wilwa is the Seer (which, interestingly, has NOT been absolutely proved yet--and I was so sure that this DAY would start with some certainty on that point), we have this configuration:

Ranger: Celuien
Seer: Wilwa

Known innocents: Firefoot, Anguirel, Eonwe

I'd like to point out that any of these three may be our Hunter--wilwa is an adept enough Seer to know that outing them as innocent is very helpful to us, while adding that one of them is gifted isn't all that helpful. All three of these players surely know that too, and Wilwa can trust them not to reveal themselves further.

Unknowns, to include two wolves:

me, Glirdan, Kitanna, Lalaith, and lmp

This group may also contain the Hunter; again I think it's best to keep that information close.

Now, IF (very scary possibility) Wilwa is not the Seer, then our pool of potential wolves grows larger, to include Firefoot, Anguirel, and Eonwe.

I was wrong yesterDAY, but I'm going to refuse to learn from my mistakes and make the same prediction once again: Certainly things will become clear quite soon. It seems to me that by the time another DAY dawns we will certainly know Wilwa's identity, and with it the identities of the other three: the wolves won't let an unprotected Seer live.

(Yes, yes, I know, rehash of things we've already said--but bear with me, I am going somewhere with this; I'm just a little late to the party as usual.)

I'm going to confine my speculations to the five that fall under suspicion given Wilwa's identity as Seer, since it seems pretty unlikely to fall out any other way.

I myself am, of course, beyond reproach, and as others have done I in their own posts I will decline to elaborate on my own virtue.

Kitanna

is a puzzle indeed--almost universally respected till quite recently, and now by her very presence in this ever-shrinking group of people without proven identities she invites suspicion. No one (myself included, I fear) has paid her much attention at all, and I'm beginning to wonder why. She's the only one of the five of us who hasn't been the subject of suspicion--at this stage in the game, isn't that in itself suspicious? Have we been remiss? If she's a wolf I'd suggest a Kitanna/lmp pairing, by the way--he making a lot of noise, she sitting back and staying unnoticed; it's the classic pairing.

Lalaith

I want to hear some more from Wilwa on Lalaith. Such a strong attack on her the other day--as the Seer you'd have to have known that if you died we'd go back and take that as a dream. What were you trying to tell us? Why were you so sure? Also, Lalaith was very much against the double-lynch plan yesterDAY. Even so, she said was willing to go along with it if everyone else agreed--could she have been hedging her bets till the last moment, not willing to cut both of her comrades loose at once? If Glirdan is a wolf then I think we need to look very hard at Lalaith.

lmp

And now we come to the other side of the Glirdan coin. The most vehement accuser of Glirdan. It seems very simple to me--if Glirdan is NOT a wolf then lmp looks very bad.

Glirdan

has been engendering a lot of discussion lately. Several DAYS ago I spoke up in his defense, but as the list of suspects grows ever narrower I'm forced to reconsider. He played fast and loose with the voting record yesterDAY--did he really think we weren't going to notice that? Also he's lately been after Lalaith--whom I suspect of being his fellow-wolf. With his built-in defense ("but of course I'm flip-flopping! That's how I always play!") he can quite safely distance himself from her in this way, then vote for someone else. Tricksy.

I think that we could learn a lot from Glirdan's identity. I really think that if he is a wolf then Lalaith likely is too; if he is not, then lmp is almost certainly guilty. Since we can't count on a dream of Glirdan, there's only one other way to know for sure. As much as I hate to break a thing to find out what it is, we may have no other choice.

I know it's early yet, but at this point I think my vote is likely to go to Glirdan.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by tar-ancalime

lmp

And now we come to the other side of the Glirdan coin. The most vehement accuser of Glirdan. It seems very simple to me--if Glirdan is NOT a wolf then lmp looks very bad.

The werewolves may be feeling desperate enough to cast suspicion upon one innocent in by voting for the death of another. We are, frankly, closing in on the werrewolves with the sheer number of known innocents, provided the current hypothesis plays out true.

For your information, tar, I've spent the last two hours doing a thorough review of all four candidates (excluding myself, of course - I'll leave that to others who must suspect me).

Here are my notes on Glirdan; I don't quote whole posts (most of the time), just the points that seem most pertinent to me:

post 39: Reads like an innocent getting suspicious.

44: considers LMP less suspicious based on responses.

49: torn on leader plan. reasons against. ends up against plan.

117:

I knew Bergil was innocent.

- huh? How do you know, if you're not the seer? Slip of the tongue, yeah, but is this knowing that you know that you know, or is it the slip of a werewolf?

Wayne seems most suspicious.

It's early to be a werewolf and say such things about a fellow werewolf.

124:

What you said about Lalaith and her Jackal/Hyde type act made me think as well. Naturally, makes her even more suspicious in my eyes.

131: [to Wilwa:]

Which makes you even more suspicious. That seems like a very Wolfish way to defend oneself just because of a stupid and quite obviously (well, now it is anyway) random reason and vote. You are really high on my suspicion list now.

139:

Now, after your lengthy post tar (which was well thought out by the way ), I'm inclined to believe that you are an innocent. Either that, or a very clever Wolf.

I'm now a little more suspicious of Wilwa, due to theof the defensivness of her post earlier, but she's not as suspicious as Lalaith or Wayne.

148:

I'd have to agree completely with Kitanna on this one. Lmp seems least suspicious of the three, yet that doesn't remove him from suspicion. I'm more suspicious of Lalaith than I am of the other two, and even more suspicious of Wayne, yet I might give him the benefit of the doubt for today and vote Lalaith instead. There's not enough information for one to go off to pin anything on Wayne where as with Lalaith, there is enough.

199: a werewolf would be more careful to get his facts straight before posting.

Lalaith: I strongly suspected yesterDay and still kind of do today. She definetly is not cleared yet. She voted for Wilwa because of the attack that Wilwa did on her yesterDay. However, I'd have to agree with Wilwa on one point, no matter how much I suspect her, and that's the fact that Lalaith has been acting very strange. Her vote for Wilwa is like a type of revenge for the attack on her which makes me suspect her even more.

211:

No Firefoot, I think Wilwa's timing of revealing herself is actually quite good. It makes sense for her to come out after all the votes she accumulated yesterDay. And I'm pretty sure she would have revealed herself sooner if she had the chance (time zone differences). I'm pretty sure she's the Seer, but if not, she's pulling a Fea and she's the Ranger/Hunter. If she's not the Seer, which I doubt, then the real Seer needs to remain hidden.

220: suspicion of LMP

225: to Firefoot:

I agree with you that there has to be a mastermind behind it and yes, all of us have shown tallent, I'm not denying that. But now we have to add you in there to, don't we? You've had a lot of good theories going around. So there's a chance that you could be a Wolf. But I'm pretty sure that you are innocent and that either Lalaith or Lmp or both are a Wolf. That's why I don't trust them and they are at the top of my suspect list. I'm definetly watching them.

232:

As for Wilwa (or the Seer) dreaming of me tonight, go right ahead and dream about me. But you'll be wasting a dream. I honestly think we should be putting that dream towards Lalaith, the one person no one is certain of. She has been accused quite a bit, or has been on people's suspicion list.

The upshot is that Glirdan has been quite consistent in suspecting Lalaith & me.

If Lalaith is a werewolf, Glirdan has been too all over her to be a werewolf too, so these to are mutually exclusive. Any slips of the tongue & flip-flopping are overbalanced by the straightforwardness of his thinking in general. I'm leaning toward his innocence. So I'm officially not suspecting Glirdan as much as others.

My notes on the rest of the suspects are too verbose, so for clarity's sake I'll save them for another post.

[Firefoot]

Looking back at Celuien's posts... she said that LMP seemed pretty innocent to her, while Glirdan was pretty suspicious. Now, she didn't know anything for sure, but it is another innocent's honest opinion.

I've also been looking through some of Kitanna's posts, and she is seeming slightly more suspicious to me, though that may be because I was looking for her to seem suspicious, what with all of you casting doubt on her. Many of her longer posts don't actually seem very analytical at all; rather, she seems to state what people have done and then not remark on it. This could be seen as an act to appear more helpful than she is being. Also, she seems to do a lot of piggy-backing on others' ideas, though this could be bad timing about when she has access. So I have moved her onto my suspect list.

Lalaith has seemed genuinely helpful in her posts. Her comments seem thoughtful and perceptive, but not in a wolvish way. I'm going to stick with my original opinion that she is probably innocent. I won't be voting for her toDay.

That leaves Glirdan and tar-ancalime. I will take a closer look at them tomorrow (ah, weekends!).

[Kitanna]

I won't lie and say I have stuff to add when I really don't. I just wanted my presence known so no one thought I was hiding out. I'm just having some RL issues to work on. And anything I could say seems gone. I was suspicious of Wayne and clearly I no longer need to worry about him. And before yesterday I was suspicious of Wilwa until she cleared herself. Though were my two main suspects and anyone else was just a feeling. So I'm going to go off and look through the posts and hopefully find something of use.

[Eonwe]

Originally Posted by littlemanpoet

What do you say, Eonwe?

ok i might as well be blunt. i saw what i saw there is no mistaking it. but like you said, there is not really all that much to be gleaned. just some mutually dependent situations:

kittana is a wolf. wayne is trying to look like he is confusing people but in fact is really naming a wofl, thinkng people will discredit his confusion ploy, and clear kittana

kittana is not a wolf: wayne is just trying to be confusing.

so i don't want to spend allot of time on it, just something to use in support of whatever position you take on kitanna .

cross posted with lmp.

[Glirdan]

Also he's lately been after Lalaith--whom I suspect of being his fellow-wolf.

Now why would you say that? Because of the fact that I strongly suspect her of being a Wolf? I've already voted for her once and she might be getting my vote again. It's either her or Lmp.

He played fast and loose with the voting record yesterDAY--did he really think we weren't going to notice that?

Now what do you mean by this? Do you mean that I strayed from who I would have voted for (Lalaith or Lmp is who it would have been) and voted for a known Wolf? Or is it what I said about spreading out the votes? Because if it's that, let me clarify this for everyone. That was just a suggestion and I knew right away that nobody would do this because we had finally caught a Wolf. I knew it was a waste of time, but I went and sugested it anyway for one reason. To see what you all had to say about it and to try and get a feeling from what you all said. And I can say now that Lmp's response to it was just like my response to his leader plan, which made me really uneasy. I really don't trust him. He's smart, perhaps to smart. He's so smart that some of you, if he's not innocent, got lulled into a false sense of security and trust him, which is exactly what he would want. Because once he had enough people who tust him, he could get them to be persuaed in voting for someone who's innocent. I'm not attacking them, I'm voicing my suspicion for them. I'm not as suspicious about Kitanna or you tar, but neither of you are sitting easy with me. Has no one thought up a possible Kitanna/tar combination? Kitanna would be the very quiet laid back one where as tar would be the outspoken one. And with tar suspecting Kitanna, he can use that to distance himself from her. I suggest looking more into a Kitanna/tar combination.