Tol-in-Gaurhoth XIII: Enter Shamville

[Lalaith]

It's what he said in his Sil Survivor thread. We can only presume to believe him.

As for your other points, tar-a, I'm glad I'm not the only wuss here. It's nto that I'm not suspicious of Glirdan - I am, he still seems to flip and flop too much - but it just the whole double-lynching plan seems too risky.

Actually, having reviewed yesterday's voting, it's quite unlikely that lmp and wilwa are both wolves, given that lmp gave her a third vote at a time when there was no Menel bandwagon to speak of. But anything is possible I suppose.

[Anguirel]

Yes, I'm afraid the goose-girl is right. I've gone quite insane and have occasional bouts of lucidity only. Occupational hazard of being a fool. I'll be stark raving mad for a lot of the time over the next fortnight...

(Lalaith is right, I just prefer to avoid anachronism...and blimming annoying it is too. Accursed technology.)

I'll be back later, but for the moment, I say we go along with wilwa's plan, and that the Ranger should guard her tonight. There's more at risk defying Wilwa than there is supporting her. In the meantime, we should try and identify other possible members of the triumvirate, and choose a target for her to dream about-I suggest Eonwe myself. May Orome guide us!

[Lalaith]

What I really wanted to know, Ang, was what you thought, in your lucid moments, of the double lynching plan.

There are five of us now who haven't voted, and three of them (LMP, Eonwe and Firefoot) seem to like the double lynching plan. I really don't, as I've explained, I think it's too high-risk and even possibly a wolvish strategy. Tar-a has illustrated one possible scenario, here's another: even if wilwa is really the seer, and wayne a wolf, what if Glirdan is the Ranger? Then we would lose wilwa, and an extra dream, tonight....

However if all four of the other remaining villagers were willing to risk it then I might be persuaded. So before I rush in to vote for Wayne, which is what I'm inclined to do, I'd like all four of you to say unreservedly you would prefer a double lynching - after all, you can't all four be wolves....

I still would like the seer, wilwa or A.N. Other, to dream of LMP or Anguirel, if they haven't already done so. But of course, it's up to you, seer dear. And could wilwa please come back and say what her dreams were about?

[wilwarin538]

My other dream was of Anguirel, he is innocent.

I've been thinking very hard about my next dream. I'm debating between Eonwe and Kitanna now. I'll be back right before voting is closed to explain why.

I have to go now though. Sorry for not giving any reasons.

Oh and LMP, Wayne's sig has been like that for quiet a while, way before this game started.

[Kitanna]

Looking back on the posts made after I went to bed I see some very interesting things floating around.

I'm not sure what to think of lmp's idea of the double-lynch of Glirdan and Wayne. I can see how it could help us if Wayne is a wolf and then so is Glirdan, but if we're wrong...I mean I feel Wayne is most likely a wolf, but if we're wrong about Glirdan, then what? If he's the ranger then we're out when it comes to protecting Wilwa and confusion is going to reign tomorrow. If he's the hunter he may just take down an innocent. But if he proves to be a wolf then we take down two and our chances greatly increase in finding wolf number three.

It is a very risky strategy to enact. If we do get a double lynching and Wayne turns out guilty and Glirdan innocent I suggest a dream about lmp. If we get a double lynch and both are wolves I suggest Lalaith. If neither are wolves I suggest the real seer dream of lmp or Firefoot (it'll be pretty clear at this point Wilwa is a wolf.).

But I really can't say I agree with this double-lynching. If we're wrong we have a lot to lose.

[Eonwe]

ok think on this:

these are the situations that arise when you have my knowledge (ei. that im innocnet).

lmp and lalaith are wolves.
either lmp or lalaith is a wolf, and their partner voted for wayne already.
neither are wolves but there are two wolves in the votes for wayne.

lmp, me, lalaith, firefoot adn ang have not voted for wayne yet.

ang and firefoot have been cleared. if we could clear lmp and lalaith, we would have two wolves left int eh voting for wayne. (well, i guess i would be the only one who could say that)

lmp: i'm not to sure of myself. he plays an awfully bold game for a wolf. that makes me lean toward thinking he is innocnet. though of all the unknowns, i would pick lmp to play a game like that. which makes me unsure. but when you throw the seer hints in, i think that would be too far for a wolf.


lalaith: i havn't really looked into her much. she gives a good acounting of lmp's plan and wilwa=seer situation. that lends some credability to her.

me: i know im innocnet, but nobody else does.

i suggest wilwa chooses the most suspicious of us three to dream of, and everyone else do their best to dig up whatever damnation the can on us. we will hopefully be able to agree that we are all innocent.

and that would lead us to two wolves hidden in Glirdan, Kittana, Tar, and Celuien. which would be very helpful.

maybe it would be time for teh hunter to come forth. that would narrow the dragnet still further.

so, tell me what you think of lmp, lalaith, and me.

[Lalaith]

Eonwe: Firefoot and Ang are only cleared if Wilwa really is the seer.
Ang: first day votes for Wayne are only relevant if Wayne is a wolf.

The answers to the second question will be revealed of course at the end of this Day and to the first either tomorrow DAY or the DAY after.

Of course, after Wayne's lynching, there will be no opportunity to discuss strategy so it's best to get that clear now.
Here's what I think.
If Wayne is a wolf, Ranger obviously protects Wilwa. Hunter does what s/he thinks best. Wilwa, if seer, dreams of who she thinks best. If someone else is Seer, don't bother dreaming about wilwa, she's obviously a wolf. In this scenario, Kitanna's Firefoot/Lmp suggestion isn't a bad one.

If Wayne turns out to be innocent, Ranger and Hunter must obviously think very hard about what to do, the wolves will be hunting madly for the real seer in the Night.

[Firefoot]

I don't really care whether we do a double lynching or not. But I do have to vote soon, so if a clear decision has not been reached I will vote for Glirdan so that we're not penned in one way or the other (as someone could still vote for Wayne).

Wilwa - obviously, I haven't seen your reasoning yet, but if those are the two you're debating between I would go for Eonwe unless you really do have a good reason for dreaming of Kitanna. Kitanna seems very innocent to me right now.

So if we take Wilwa's claim as true (I am starting to trust her more), then the three wolves must come from this list:

Celuien - She isn't wholly innocent in my eyes, but she is less suspicious than about four or five other people.
Eonwe - I'm pretty suspicious of him. A seer dream here might not be a bad idea.
Glirdan - Hm... I'm really not sure. He could be guilty, but now that I'm actually awake and thinking, I'm not seeing him as so guilty any more. My opinion of him flip-flops about as fast as he does. If we decide not to lynch him, a seer dream here would probably be effective.
Kitanna - I think she's probably innocent. Her analyses have all seemed straight-forward and honest to me.
Lalaith - Right now I think she may be innocent. However, a closer look at her posts might not be a bad idea.
LMP - I honestly do not feel very suspicious of him. Not to say that he isn't a superb bluffer, but at this point I think he is innocent.
Tar - 50-50. Sometimes her posts seem innocent; othertimes, guilty. She could bear a closer look.
Wayne - will be lynched; presumably is a wolf.

One of the things I would like to do is look more at possible trios - this will be easier once we know Wayne's (and Glirdan's?) roles.

I really wish I could have done something more in depth, but hopefully if this is the last chance I ever get to post, you all will know where I was going.

[Firefoot]

As I said I would:

++Glirdan

My final opinion is probably leaning against a double lynching, purely because of the risk factor; but if the four rest of you all decide that the double lynching is the best way to go, I would go along with that. Good luck.

[Eonwe]

ok here's how i take it. there is almost assuradly one wolf in teh votes for wayne. wayne is a wofl. that leaves one left to cast a vote. he is in a bad place, becasue wayne is already as good as dead now. that means of Anguirel, Eonwe, Firefoot, Lalaith, and LMP i think there is a fine chance there is a wolf. ang and firefoot are cleared. that leaves me lmp, and lalaith. i know im innocent. that leaves lmp and lalaith.

i would suggest dreaming of lmp, lalaith, or me. but i think lalaith has teh most potential.

ill try to go back and collect teh votes up to this point adn analyze them...

[Eonwe]

and here is voting up to now:

voter - vote

wilwa - wayne
wayne - wilwa
glirdan - wayne
kittana - wayne
tar - wayne
celuien - wayne
firefoot - glirdan

analysis may follow shortly...

[Anguirel]

I agree with Lalaith that a double-lynching at this point would be too perilous.

Can anything be divined from the Day One votes, when Wayne was a leading candidate? I think, for instance, we can clear Celuien definitively...

I'll return with more when I can.