Tol-in-Gaurhoth XIII: Enter Shamville

[Celuien]

Originally Posted by Glirdan

Lmp was the one that raised the question and debate of whether or not we should have a leader. If he was a Wolf, it got the results he wanted, people talking about his plan and not him. But the question is, would a Wolf do something like this so early on? And Lmp isn't that supid to do something like that. Or would he do something like that to fool us? It would also explain why they chose to attack Kuru and Kath. They were to smart for their own good and, if I'm right, they didn't suspect Lmp a whole lot. So they were perfect choices for him.

So, what do you all think about the one of the smartest people amongst us? Is he innocent, or does he have a furry little secret?

Personally, I still tend toward trusting lmp. He is definitely smart enough to appear completely innocent during the day while terrorizing Shamville at night.

I think it's best to settle the controversy once and for all. As a confirmed innocent, his brilliant strategizing would be of enormous benefit to the village. And if he is a wolf () and has fooled me with his treachery, we need to know. So, Wilwa - please dream of lmp tonight (I'm assuming he was not the dream from two nights ago).

The analysis of Kuru and Kath's deaths seems spot on. They were both intelligent villagers who left little trail and for that reason perfect choices for the wolves. Therefore, I'm sure there's a mastermind in the wolvish trio. Firefoot is cleared by wilwa, whether a wolf or not (even if the wilwa-wolf theory is true, a wolf would know that she is innocent and could use the knowledge to try to gain Firefoot's trust). I'm willing to clear Ang on the basis of my own analysis unless something drastic happens. That leaves tar-ancalime, Kitanna, Lalaith, and, actually, you Glirdan, for the main possibilities, as all have shown excellent strategy/analysis skills to date.

And there's no point really to spreading votes. Granted, we're not going to learn much from voting patterns today, but that's not going to happen anyway since Lalaith is correct that the wolves will most likely vote for Wayne to avoid appearing to defend him. Spreading votes won't uncover them. As for those of us who are non-lupine, I'd just feel strange voting for a possible innocent with a possible known wolf right in front of us, especially when that vote wouldn't serve any purpose for gathering information anyway. Better to help guarantee lynching a werewolf.

EDIT: cross posted with lmp, Firefoot and Glirdan. On second thought, while I would like to settle the controversy surrounding the undertaker for the remaining villagers who suspect him, there's something to be said for a Glirdan dream. And so, I'll change my vote to go along with that plan, since at this point, I believe with about as much certainty as a non-Seer can have that lmp is not a wolf.

[Glirdan]

That leaves tar-ancalime, Kitanna, Lalaith, and, actually, you Glirdan, for the main possibilities, as all have shown excellent strategy/analysis skills to date.

I agree with you that there has to be a mastermind behind it and yes, all of us have shown tallent, I'm not denying that. But now we have to add you in there to, don't we? You've had a lot of good theories going around. So there's a chance that you could be a Wolf. But I'm pretty sure that you are innocent and that either Lalaith or Lmp or both are a Wolf. That's why I don't trust them and they are at the top of my suspect list. I'm definetly watching them.

[Kitanna]

I am going to go on and trust Wilwa.

++ Wayne

I had suspected him in my posts from yesterday and today (one I cross-posted with Wilwa). Wilwa's coming out as seer only makes me suspect him more. If we're wrong and Wayne is lynched as an innocent the Ranger will have to think hard on who to protect. But then tomorrow we clearly cast stones to Wilwa. But if Wilwa is right and hopefully that will remove doubt, the ranger will probably need no prompting in protecting her and she can let us know tomorrow who she dreamt of.
We may lose a villager if we're wrong about Wilwa, but we have a wolf. And if we're right we kill a wolf. So in either case we bring the wolf count down to 2.

[Eonwe]

well ill jump in here. sorry im a bit late. i was going to post earilier but got interupted. rather rudely, i might add. anyway...

haveing not read all the posts, i am quite intregued. there a few possible senarios that arrise from the wilwa=seer idea. which im not 100% sold on, by the way.

normally, i would say: "wolf? a wolf would never be so foolish to do something like that. innocent? she's not fea, you know. seer? must be." but given teh rather close shave she had with the noose last evening, that on longer holds true. ok three senarios.

wilwa is a wolf:

wilwa as a wolf could do us great damage. first she could be hoping to take down an innocent with her. actually this would accomplish two things. the other being to render our vote useless as a record tomarrow, because all the votes would be assumed to be for wilwa. cuz we would know she is a wolf after lynching a supposed innocnet wayne. the other thing would be flushing out the seer. the only way to prove that she isn't the seer is for teh real seer to come out. (actually, only the hypothetically real seer adn wayne know if she is telling the truth, just realized that.) i think that is a rather sever amount of damage deal for one wolf kill.

wilwa is the seer:

could be. she could have seen how close she got to death yesterday and freaked out (i know all about that .) she has one know wolf that she would want to get recognized. not only that, she has one dream left (possibley two, though that is playing a dangerous game there ranger!). not a bad haul for a seer.

wilwa is innocent:

umm. you better not be .

Originally Posted by wilwa

You want proof?

I dreamt of you last night Firefoot, you are an Ordinary Villager.

Now do you believe me?

no. that does nothing to assuage my doubts. you know who everone is if you are a wolf. although now that i think of it it kind of does, a bit, cuz you would be playing a desparate game saying that directly to a fellow wolf.

here's some stuff about wayne:

if wilwa is the seer, wayne must be a wolf. if wilwa is infact a wolf, there are two differnt lines of logic she could choose:

pick a wolf, so when we lynch her, we will trust her. this is doubtful, cuz the idea isn't to have us trust her, its just to have us trust her for a day. the wolf sacrafise would be a long-run option.

pick an innocent to bring down with her. not a bad idea.

so as for what im thinking overall, i don't think we should lynch wayne. that would be kind of counter productive, becasue we have a huge bullseye on his head if wilwa is the seer, and we have a known innocent if she's a wolf.

more next time...

edited mixed some stuff up. sorry.

[Eonwe]

Originally Posted by lmp

Eonwe could be playing innocent with his "please help me" routine, although that could be honest trouble he's having.

misunderstood again! just say what you why do think something clearly, that way i don't have to ask about it, be suspcious about it, or fall into a timezone-type dispute, thereby throwing everyone off-track. all i want is facts and reasons. clarity is golden. i say this every game, because it makes sense.

oh and ps. what we should really be thinking here is if a wolfwilwa woudl think the evidense accruded against her yesterday was sufficient for peole to bring her up again today. which would lead her to the desparate stratay of impersenating teh seer.

[Celuien]

Originally Posted by Eonwe

here's some stuff about wayne:

if wilwa is the seer, wayne must be a wolf. if wilwa is the seer, there are two differnt lines of logic she could choose:

pick a wolf, so when we lynch her, we will trust her. this is doubtful, cuz the idea isn't to have us trust her, its just to have us trust her for a day. the wolf sacrafise would be a long-run option.

pick an innocent to bring down with her. not a bad idea.

so as for what im thinking overall, i don't think we should lynch wayne. that would be kind of counter productive, becasue we have a huge bullseye on his head if wilwa is the seer, and we have a known innocent if she's a wolf.

more next time...

Now, that's peculiar. Further judgment reserved until the promised "more next time" hopefully provides more explaination.

[Celuien]

Originally Posted by Glirdan

I agree with you that there has to be a mastermind behind it and yes, all of us have shown tallent, I'm not denying that. But now we have to add you in there to, don't we? You've had a lot of good theories going around. So there's a chance that you could be a Wolf. But I'm pretty sure that you are innocent and that either Lalaith or Lmp or both are a Wolf. That's why I don't trust them and they are at the top of my suspect list. I'm definetly watching them.

Heh, I'm flattered. But I suppose I should be there for everyone else's list of possibilities. I just didn't include myself on my own suspect list.

[wilwarin538]

no. that does nothing to assuage my doubts. you know who everone is if you are a wolf. although now that i think of it it kind of does, a bit, cuz you would be playing a desparate game saying that directly to a fellow wolf.

I was saying that directely to Firefoot. She obviously knows she's an ordianry villager. If I was lying, and I had just said she was an ord as a guess, that could have completely blown my ruse as the seer. She could have easily been a ranger or hunter. Then she would have known I was lying since I corrisponded her with the wrong role. The chances of me guessing that she is an ord, and her actaully being an ord is slim. I'm surprised she still has doubts.

But it is understandable. Im probably doing one of the worst jobs as seer ever.

I have to go to sleep now. I'll be back an hour before voting is closed.

I'm still not sure who to dream of. I'm debating between Lalaith and LMP.

[Eonwe]

welllll, i guess that does make sense wilwa. hadn't thought about the gifted aspect. sigh...all that theororizing for nothing... though i will have to rethink it through.

ok rethought it, and it doens't quite clear you. firefoot could be a wolf. but that is doubtful. and you could concievebly have gotten lucky. i say that because there would be some reason to guess like that if you were a wolf, seeing as you have a day, two if your lucky, to live (going off you being a wolf that is). *long sigh*

Celuien, i guessing that your question is about the seer lines of logic? i mixed tehm up. the second seer should read wolf.

edited: finally touches.

[tar-ancalime]

++ Wayne


I really think we have to take Wilwa's claim at face value. Believe her, don't believe her, think what you like; we'll know soon enough, and it makes sense for us to act as though she's telling the truth.

Here's why:

She needs to reveal her dreams to us. Having stated that she dreamed of innocents, even if she's lying she'll produce two known innocents (one already being Firefoot, of course) to bolster her credibility. This information, whatever its provenance, is immensely useful to us.

(The opposite possibility, that wilwa is herself a wolf and that the "innocents" she'll produce for us are her comrades-in-paws, is frightening but there isn't really anything we can do about it. And as I mentioned above, we'll know soon enough. Lynching Wayne will tell us plenty.)

But if Wilwa really is the Seer, we are in a very good position indeed: we can stop venting our collective spleens on whomever she has already dreamed of, we pick off a wolf tonight, and (presuming the Ranger's protection) we get at least one more dream.

All three Gifteds can profit from the information Wilwa can give us: the Ranger can play peek-a-boo with the wolves for at least a few days among the three known innocents, the Seer (wilwa) gets protected long enough to dream one more time, and the Hunter has his/her pool of potential targets narrowed considerably.

Even if we're totally convinced wilwa is lying, we've got to behave as though she really is the Seer. The truth will out, and we will have bought the real Seer precious time.

I feel very strongly that even debating wilwa's veracity is beside the point. No matter who or what she really is, it can only help us to take her advice for at least one DAY and lynch Wayne.

I suggest we follow Firefoot's lead, table this issue, and spend the rest of the DAY discussing the other suspect.

[tar-ancalime]

Oops! Last line of my previous post should read "the other suspects."

[Celuien]

Originally Posted by Eonwe

Celuien, i guessing that your question is about the seer lines of logic? i mixed tehm up. the second seer should read wolf.

That was the question, in addition to disagreeing that lynching Wayne is counterproductive. The best way to test Wilwa's veracity and hopefully get rid of a wolf is to lynch Wayne.

I didn't see a Wayne post.

I just thought of something. LMP is the only one so far to have asked NOT to be dreamt about. So far, it doesn't change my opinion of him, but it could be taken as an indication of guilt. I don't know what to think. I'll trust in Wilwa's judgment.

Finally, I need to go to sleep, so I'll be leaving soon. I'll try to get back in the morning to continue the discussion, but in case I don't, I want to make sure my vote goes to

++WAYNE

[WaynetheGoblin]

I did not post anything. Well im dead i probebly wont win either but i guess i had fun actually not really butit was a good game thank you spawn.

[Eonwe]

well i guess lynching wayne would be the surefire way to get at wilwa. i was thinking if wilwa is a wolf, the wolves can't kill her, so if she doen't die in two nights they we will have the truth without killing wayne either. but i guess that we would still have to wade through this: (which would be a tough call to make)

Originally Posted by me

if wilwa is the seer, wayne must be a wolf. if wilwa is in fact a wolf, there are two differnt lines of logic she could choose:

pick a wolf, so when we lynch her, we will trust her. this is doubtful, cuz the idea isn't to have us trust her, its just to have us trust her for a day. the wolf sacrafise would be a long-run option.

pick an innocent to bring down with her. not a bad idea.

edit: dangit, i keep doing that! sorry for the confustion.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Celuien

LMP is the only one so far to have asked NOT to be dreamt about. So far, it doesn't change my opinion of him, but it could be taken as an indication of guilt. I don't know what to think. I'll trust in Wilwa's judgment.

On the contrary. I would be a very stupid werewolf to put such an onus upon myself. It's not the way I would act if I were a werewolf. Of course, you may not believe that. Still, all I can do is tell you that I said it for the obvious reason, which is that if our seer is Wilwa and has only one free night to dream, please, don't waste it on an innocent!

[Glirdan]

Heh, I'm flattered.

You should be flattered friend, you are a very smart individual. That's why I suspect you, yet not as much as some others.

As for Wilwa (or the Seer) dreaming of me tonight, go right ahead and dream about me. But you'll be wasting a dream. I honestly think we should be putting that dream towards Lalaith, the one person no one is certain of. She has been accused quite a bit, or has been on people's suspicion list.