TOL-IN-GAURHOTH XII, Erbar Telamarth - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

***Mister Underhill*** · 10-24-2005, 12:56 PM

Okay, trying to run the math on this. Six villagers and one wolf left.

Case 1 - Double-lynching:

If we double-lynch tonight, we have a 2 in 7 chance of catching the wolf, or about a 29% chance. If we assume mine and morm's innocence, that takes us to a 2 in 5 chance -- 40%, as he's already said.

If we miss the wolf, however, we'll be down to 4 villagers and 1 wolf going into the night. By the end of the night, either we've got 3 villagers and 1 wolf, or 3 villagers and 2 wolves. That leaves us with a 25% chance in the former case and a disastrous state of affairs in the second -- only a 2 in 5 chance of catching a wolf and even if successful, one wolf still alive to wreak havoc.

Case 2 - Single-lynching:

If we do a single lynching tonight, that gives us a 1 in 7 chance of catching a wolf, or a 14% chance. Again assuming mine and morm's innocence, it's actually a 1 in 5 chance, or 20%.

If we miss the wolf, we'll be down to 5 villagers and 1 wolf going into the night. By the end of the night, we'll have either 4 villagers and 1 wolf, or 4 villagers and 2 wolves. That leaves us with a 20% chance of catching a wolf in the former case, and only a slightly less disastrous state of affairs than in the double-lynch scenario -- only a 1 in 3 chance of catching a wolf on Day 5, but with an extra villager around to help string things out.

All told, it looks like tonight is as good a time as any to take our shot on a double-lynching, since we have nearly an even chance of catching a wolf. Assuming I'm right about morm, that is. I don't expect anyone to take it on faith that we're innocent. If you factor that out, we have a 29% chance of catching a wolf with a double-lynching, versus a 14% chance with a single-lynching -- with the possibility of a cursed villager in the mix looming.

For my own part, I'm confident in morm (though my review is still pending), I know I'm innocent, and I'll even go out on a limb and say Esty looks pretty clean to me. That raises the odds even more from my point of view to an even 50% chance of catching the wolf out. I don't think the odds will be so favorable again, and I'm willing to roll the dice on a double-lynching.

Now the question is, who to double-lynch, and how to make it come off without wolves tripping us up.

EDIT: Cross-posting, so some of this is redundant.

10-24-2005, 12:56 PM	#11
*Mister Underhill* Dread Horseman Join Date: Sep 2000 Location: Behind you! Posts: 2,744	Okay, trying to run the math on this. Six villagers and one wolf left. Case 1 - Double-lynching: If we double-lynch tonight, we have a 2 in 7 chance of catching the wolf, or about a 29% chance. If we assume mine and morm's innocence, that takes us to a 2 in 5 chance -- 40%, as he's already said. If we miss the wolf, however, we'll be down to 4 villagers and 1 wolf going into the night. By the end of the night, either we've got 3 villagers and 1 wolf, or 3 villagers and 2 wolves. That leaves us with a 25% chance in the former case and a disastrous state of affairs in the second -- only a 2 in 5 chance of catching a wolf and even if successful, one wolf still alive to wreak havoc. Case 2 - Single-lynching: If we do a single lynching tonight, that gives us a 1 in 7 chance of catching a wolf, or a 14% chance. Again assuming mine and morm's innocence, it's actually a 1 in 5 chance, or 20%. If we miss the wolf, we'll be down to 5 villagers and 1 wolf going into the night. By the end of the night, we'll have either 4 villagers and 1 wolf, or 4 villagers and 2 wolves. That leaves us with a 20% chance of catching a wolf in the former case, and only a slightly less disastrous state of affairs than in the double-lynch scenario -- only a 1 in 3 chance of catching a wolf on Day 5, but with an extra villager around to help string things out. All told, it looks like tonight is as good a time as any to take our shot on a double-lynching, since we have nearly an even chance of catching a wolf. Assuming I'm right about morm, that is. I don't expect anyone to take it on faith that we're innocent. If you factor that out, we have a 29% chance of catching a wolf with a double-lynching, versus a 14% chance with a single-lynching -- with the possibility of a cursed villager in the mix looming. For my own part, I'm confident in morm (though my review is still pending), I know I'm innocent, and I'll even go out on a limb and say Esty looks pretty clean to me. That raises the odds even more from my point of view to an even 50% chance of catching the wolf out. I don't think the odds will be so favorable again, and I'm willing to roll the dice on a double-lynching. Now the question is, who to double-lynch, and how to make it come off without wolves tripping us up. EDIT: Cross-posting, so some of this is redundant.