TOL-IN-GAURHOTH XII, Erbar Telamarth - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

the guy who be short · 10-24-2005, 12:16 PM

Votes schmotes. Votes can be interpreted any way you like. The important thing is that we have a small pool of suspicious villagers, and we're gonna kill them off.

My death should sort of prove Boro's innocence, as we're both in similar boats: distractions, but innocent.

Other than Boro and I, Enca and Fea seem most suspicious. They die. Throw in one Mr Underhill for good measure, voila, villagers win.

The only thing that could go wrong is the cursed villager. The chance of that is negligable.

And we don't need that extra day if we kill 2 people per day. It helps us, if anything.

Today: 2/7 chance of getting wolf
Tomorrow: 1/2 chance.

By the old rules of one lynching per day:
Today: 1/7
Tomorrow: 1/5
Two days time: 1/3

In short, I cannot be bothered to represent the maths, but we have a 54% chance of winning - randomly - if we go by the old method of one lynching per day. If we do two, this jumps to 64%.

Q.E.D.

EDIT: That's with completely random lynchings. We know more or less who we suspect as a whole, so our chances should be higher than that.

10-24-2005, 12:16 PM	#11
the guy who be short Shadowed Prince Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Thulcandra Posts: 2,343	Votes schmotes. Votes can be interpreted any way you like. The important thing is that we have a small pool of suspicious villagers, and we're gonna kill them off. My death should sort of prove Boro's innocence, as we're both in similar boats: distractions, but innocent. Other than Boro and I, Enca and Fea seem most suspicious. They die. Throw in one Mr Underhill for good measure, voila, villagers win. The only thing that could go wrong is the cursed villager. The chance of that is negligable. And we don't need that extra day if we kill 2 people per day. It helps us, if anything. Today: 2/7 chance of getting wolf Tomorrow: 1/2 chance. By the old rules of one lynching per day: Today: 1/7 Tomorrow: 1/5 Two days time: 1/3 In short, I cannot be bothered to represent the maths, but we have a 54% chance of winning - randomly - if we go by the old method of one lynching per day. If we do two, this jumps to 64%. Q.E.D. EDIT: That's with completely random lynchings. We know more or less who we suspect as a whole, so our chances should be higher than that.