TOL-IN-GAURHOTH XII, Erbar Telamarth - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

***Mister Underhill*** · 10-20-2005, 09:36 AM

Well it's no fun to wake up and find that not only do I have the blood of an innocent on my hands, but now I'm a chief suspect as well. I mourn Anguirel, but I curse him too -- by offering his neck for the noose, he may end up bringing another innocent -- me -- down with him, and that would be a sad legacy.

There are a few things to remember about the voting. One is that Ang offered himself. This was incredibly foolish! None of you innocents do it again. Not only does it make you look suspicious, but in a situation like last night, where there is almost no information to go on, it makes you seem a safe vote. Enough of us will die under the jaws of these things without us volunteering.

Also Cailin is only dead because we had a wise hunter. Cailin *didn't* get voted down by us. So I don't see how a vote for Cailin makes anyone golden.

If the wolves were smart, and I have no doubt they were, they'd want to space out their votes, and hold at least one until fairly late in case of trouble. Since Cailin voted early on, I'd say that puts everyone from Mormegil back under suspicion (I realize this still leaves me on the suspicious list).

The way the voting stood when Morm cast the first vote for Cailin, it would have been an easy throwaway vote for a wolf to divert suspicion, but I think this unlikely. Still it's not out of the realm of possibility -- at this point it seemed unlikely that Cailin would be voted, and Morm could have this vote to show later if the two of them were ever linked.

Morm and Firefoot voted two in a row for Cailin, so it seems unlikely to me that they're both wolves.

Then along comes lmp and casts a third vote for Cailin. This would be an audacious vote for a wolf. It would put Cailin ahead, but with the possible knowledge that another wolf could come along and create a tie, sparing Cailin. Don't know what to think here, and it seems a stretch now that I'm writing it down.

Enca's vote for Ang created a three-way tie for second, an interesting setup but I don't see much in it to suspect either innocent or guilty.

Then yours truly blunders in and creates a situation which would have hanged both Cailin and Anguirel. I can see why this casts some suspicion on me. Well, I can only say that I should have been more attentive to the way the vote stood. My vote was cast solely for the reason I gave in my vote post -- "He's offered himself, so it's either a safe vote or I'm calling his wolfish bluff." -- and without regard to the tally, which I see now was a mistake.

I only hope you will see that a wolf, even a newbie wolf, wouldn't make a move that would cast such obvious suspicion on himself.

If Feanor is a wolf who held her vote until very late, she made a good one -- not tipping her hand by saving Cailin with an Anguirel vote, but creating a situation which could have led to a double-lynching that would have taken down Boromir with her fellow wolf.

Lhuna's tie-breaker sealed the fate of Anguirel and saved Cailin, at least from our collective cudgels -- but would a wolf make such an obvious blundering move? Probably not.

I have to admit that my own analysis leaves me looking more likely a werewolf than not, but I can only plead inexperience and restate emphatically that I am innocent. Have the seer dream of me, put me to any test. I don't much like being in the position of knowing that I'm innocent but having suspicious eyes cast on me, but here I am.

I'm almost too bewildered to come up with my own suspcions. Based on my analysis, I'd say Feanor's crafty vote makes her my top suspect.

10-20-2005, 09:36 AM	#11
*Mister Underhill* Dread Horseman Join Date: Sep 2000 Location: Behind you! Posts: 2,744	Well it's no fun to wake up and find that not only do I have the blood of an innocent on my hands, but now I'm a chief suspect as well. I mourn Anguirel, but I curse him too -- by offering his neck for the noose, he may end up bringing another innocent -- me -- down with him, and that would be a sad legacy. There are a few things to remember about the voting. One is that Ang offered himself. This was incredibly foolish! None of you innocents do it again. Not only does it make you look suspicious, but in a situation like last night, where there is almost no information to go on, it makes you seem a safe vote. Enough of us will die under the jaws of these things without us volunteering. Also Cailin is only dead because we had a wise hunter. Cailin didn't get voted down by us. So I don't see how a vote for Cailin makes anyone golden. If the wolves were smart, and I have no doubt they were, they'd want to space out their votes, and hold at least one until fairly late in case of trouble. Since Cailin voted early on, I'd say that puts everyone from Mormegil back under suspicion (I realize this still leaves me on the suspicious list). The way the voting stood when Morm cast the first vote for Cailin, it would have been an easy throwaway vote for a wolf to divert suspicion, but I think this unlikely. Still it's not out of the realm of possibility -- at this point it seemed unlikely that Cailin would be voted, and Morm could have this vote to show later if the two of them were ever linked. Morm and Firefoot voted two in a row for Cailin, so it seems unlikely to me that they're both wolves. Then along comes lmp and casts a third vote for Cailin. This would be an audacious vote for a wolf. It would put Cailin ahead, but with the possible knowledge that another wolf could come along and create a tie, sparing Cailin. Don't know what to think here, and it seems a stretch now that I'm writing it down. Enca's vote for Ang created a three-way tie for second, an interesting setup but I don't see much in it to suspect either innocent or guilty. Then yours truly blunders in and creates a situation which would have hanged both Cailin and Anguirel. I can see why this casts some suspicion on me. Well, I can only say that I should have been more attentive to the way the vote stood. My vote was cast solely for the reason I gave in my vote post -- "He's offered himself, so it's either a safe vote or I'm calling his wolfish bluff." -- and without regard to the tally, which I see now was a mistake. I only hope you will see that a wolf, even a newbie wolf, wouldn't make a move that would cast such obvious suspicion on himself. If Feanor is a wolf who held her vote until very late, she made a good one -- not tipping her hand by saving Cailin with an Anguirel vote, but creating a situation which could have led to a double-lynching that would have taken down Boromir with her fellow wolf. Lhuna's tie-breaker sealed the fate of Anguirel and saved Cailin, at least from our collective cudgels -- but would a wolf make such an obvious blundering move? Probably not. I have to admit that my own analysis leaves me looking more likely a werewolf than not, but I can only plead inexperience and restate emphatically that I am innocent. Have the seer dream of me, put me to any test. I don't much like being in the position of knowing that I'm innocent but having suspicious eyes cast on me, but here I am. I'm almost too bewildered to come up with my own suspcions. Based on my analysis, I'd say Feanor's crafty vote makes her my top suspect.