TOL-IN-GAURHOTH XII, Erbar Telamarth - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Feanor of the Peredhil · 10-20-2005, 05:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the guy who be short

Mormegil, Firefoot and LMP are now certain innocents. Nobody would vote for a fellow wolf when the votes were so close. Unfortunately, this means they will certainly be dying in the Night - goodbye, fellows. At least the Ranger has a one in three chance of saving one.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shelob

Well Working from the votes I would guess that those three who, in fairly quick sucsession (ie: all voting in a row) put Cailin in yesterday's lead would most likely not be wolves.

Can you feel my exasperation from all the way over there, TGWBS, Shelob? I should hope so, as there's a lot of this. You guys always do this! And you know what? It always turns out badly for you. By "you guys" I don't actually mean the two of you, but I do mean that in any instance where this happens, it works out badly.

Listen to me: don't underestimate the audacity of the wolves. How much common sense would it take to absolutely secure the vision of your innocence by sacrificing one of your own? All they had to do was kill off Cailin, or show that they were trying to, and anybody on that list is golden.

And with the three-way tying rule of the first and last dead, it makes it really tough to get who you want killed anyhow, especially this early. Voting early for Cailin, who there was such a high chance of still surviving, is not as risky as you would think. I mean, look... she didn't die by our hands, she died by those of the noble Eomer (may his spirit find comfort with those of our poor departed phantom and our brave Sir Anguirel).

But my point is, wolves are willing to do anything. Here's a good rule of wrist that you should seriously keep in mind: Even though Fea's innocent, judge anything the wolves *might* do by what she'd be willing to do if she was one of them.

The first thing I'd do as a wolf was sacrifice my kin, whether with their knowledge or without it. Because people automatically assume it wouldn't happen.

Don't do that.

Expect the worst and prepare for it. How hard would you kick yourselves if I'm right in my vague suspicion of LMP (agian...

)? You've immediately discount him based on faulty evidence just because of the assumption that nobody would be that audacious.

Don't do that.

The only true proof of innocence is death or Seer identification. Which, on that note, let me keep you on the up and up that I'm pretty glad I didn't mention that I thought 'Mer might have Seen something good about mormegil. Even though I was wrong, looks like the wolves may have thought the same.

I'll post more later... I've got a [tavern wenching] class to get ready for. Horrible boss of mine, you know? Making me get up to go to an 8:00 AM class on [how to properly wench a tavern].

Just... please don't underestimate? Please?

Boromir88 · 10-20-2005, 06:27 AM

Estelyn, my dear, we aren't going to continue this who insulted who again today are we?

Unless of course, you want me to continue, because you're a wolf and it will keep everyone off focus?

Quote:

Mormegil, Firefoot and LMP are now certain innocents. Nobody would vote for a fellow wolf when the votes were so close.~tgwbs

I wouldn't be so certain on that. With a lot of suspicion around other people (mainly myself), it wouldn't be so bold. I think it goes to show that these three are probably innocent, but it's quite possible one is a wolf, though the two remaining in there, I doubt it.

I got to give it up to Eomer, he's been the smartest one from this village so far, and of course the wolves kill him, but he did find a wolf. I give him credit for that.

Eomer seems to be the safest pick for the wolves. He hadn't attracted much suspicion, everyone just kind of ignored Cailin's vote (and I'm glad), so really he was the prime target for wolves.

Based on voting yesterday:

Anguirel for Boromir=(Boromir; 1)
Estelyn for Shelob= (Boromir; 1, Shelob; 1)
tgwbs for Shelob= (Shelob; 2, Boromir; 2)
Cailin for Eomer= (Shelob; 2, Boromir; 1, Eomer; 1)
Eomer for Boromir= (Shelob; 2, Boromir; 2, Eomer; 1)
Boromir for Formendacil= (Shelob; 2, Boromir; 2, Eomer; 1, Formendacil; 1)
Formendacil for Mr. U= (Shelob; 2, Boromir; 2, Eomer; 1, Form; 1, Mr. U; 1)
Shelob for Anguirel= (Shelob; 2, Boromir; 2, Eomer; 1, Form; 1, Mr. U; 1, Anguriel; 1)
Mormegil for Cailin
Firefoot for Cailin
lmp for Cailin= (Cailin; 3, Boromir; 2, Shelob; 2, Eomer; 1, Form; 1, Mr. U.; 1, Anguirel; 1).
Enca for Anguirel
Mr. U for Anguirel= (Cailin; 3, Anguirel; 3, Boromir; 2, Shelob; 2,...the rest)
Feanor for Boromir= (Cailin; 3, Anguirel; 3, Boromir; 3)
Lhuna for Anguirel= (Anguirel; 4, Cailin; 3, Boromir; 3)

I'm also suspicious of anyone trying to write off who's innocent and who's not, because we can't tell, and it's stupid to assume anyone's innocent, you're only fooling yourself.

I will say right now the MOST innocent looking people are...
Boromir
Mormegil
Firefoot
lmp

Now if a wolf voted for Cailin, I think most likely would have been mormegil, believing that he was just kind of throwing away his vote and it would look nice.

I fail to see why Fea is innocent in all this. She set up a three way tie, and voted for me, a known innocent! And if it wasn't for Lhuna, you would have all been rid of me, and the wolves would have killed you all.

Ok, so where was a wolf most likely to vote yesterday?

I'd say, vote for Anguirel, and a vote for me.

So who voted for Anguirel?
Shelob
Encaitare
Mr. U
Lhuna

Right now I say Encaitare and Mr. Underhill may look the most suspicious. Lhuna is an experienced person when it comes to wolves, if she's a wolf, she played stupidly yesterday. But, that doesn't mean she isn't a dumb wolf.

And the only person alive who voted for me is Fea. What a perfect ploy by the wolves. Get Anguirel hanged, kill the other person who voted for me, then look you're in there with two innocents. So Fea, I'd watch out, you're either a wolf, or you're going to die, because it just seems like that happens to people who vote for me...I wonder why, maybe because I'm innocent and if you vote for me you deserve to die!

Boromir88 · 10-20-2005, 06:32 AM

Double posting here...

Quote:

Listen to me: don't underestimate the audacity of the wolves. How much common sense would it take to absolutely secure the vision of your innocence by sacrificing one of your own? All they had to do was kill off Cailin, or show that they were trying to, and anybody on that list is golden.~Fea

Atleast we agree on something Miss wolf.

Firefoot · 10-20-2005, 07:24 AM

Boromir, I'm not sure where you get yourself to be a proven innocent, except to yourself, maybe. You're not dead, we don't have the Seer's word, and you don't have a vote to say that you're probably innocent. I am leaning toward your innocence (or at least, I was, mostly due to your unconcerned manner, but it's posts like that that keep me concerned), but that doesn't preclude Fea's guilt. She's just about as likely to be a wolf as anyone.

I'm not assuming the innocence of Morm or LMP, though it does seem likely. There were six people already voted for when Morm voted; he could have easily voted for one of them if he were a wolf. I'm thinking that LMP is a wolf only if the third wolf hadn't voted yet. I'm not saying that it wouldn't be a wolvish ploy to try and vote out one of their own, but with the voting so broad, it was quite unnecessary.

I'm still suspicious of Formendacil. We all seem to be assuming that the wolf voted later and with strategy concerned with Cailin, but there are RL circumstances to prevent that. A wolf could very well have voted earlier, as Cailin did.

Shelob is also edging up on my suspicion list. Before, she was on my watchlist because basically everyone was. Day 1 is too soon to discount anybody. But I really don't understand the accusations she was making at the end of Day 1. Also, her continued insistence that the wolves wouldn't kill her during the night is disconcerting.

As for the other people who voted for Ang:

Encai - she just doesn't seem very suspicious to me. Her posts make very logical sense to me, and I tend to agree with her statements.

Mr. Underhill - I'm not sure what to think of him. He's on my suspicion list, but other than his late vote for Ang, I can't come up with anything concrete.

Lhuna - That's a question, isn't it? Her vote for Ang could easily have been chance or calculated. It would have been a difficult decision for either a wolf or an innocent. She's on my suspicion list, but I don't think her vote for Ang is enough reason to lynch her unless we have no other better suspects.

Others:

Esty - I'm not sure about her, but right now I'm leaning innocent. There are too many people I find more suspicious than her.

TGWBS - Also leaning innocent. More suspicious than Esty, maybe, but his analysis of yesterday's voting largely made sense to me.

Fea - I could go either way. While I haven't seen anything outstandingly suspicious about her, I wouldn't expect to; nor would I put anything past her. If she was an innocent, she honestly wouldn't know about any of the three (Ang, Cailin, and Borormir); and if she were a wolf her vote for Boromir basically says that she doesn't care which of those three dies and gives the remaining person another option so as not to be overtly protecting Cailin. And actually, from Fea, I think a vote sealing Cailin's fate would have made her look more suspicious. But then, she could be double-bluffing. It's Fea. All that to say "leaning innocent."

mormegil · 10-20-2005, 08:09 AM

I don't have much to say right now other than for my purposes today I will be assuming that LMP and Firefoot are innocent. I realize that there could be one wolf in the three of us but it's not incredibly likely, though possible, but having the two remaining wolves is rather improbable so to help clear up my head I will look to those other two as innocent for today and then reevaluate tomorrow.

Edit: the only way to clear up the Fea confusion is the time tested method of lynching her.

littlemanpoet · 10-20-2005, 03:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mormegil

Edit: the only way to clear up the Fea confusion is the time tested method of lynching her.

Well, yes, you do have a point there.

Estelyn Telcontar · 10-20-2005, 08:10 AM

I've been rehashing yesterDay's discussions and my head is spinning. After only one day, though we were lucky to lose a werewolf already, there still isn't enough evidence for anything even closely resembling certainty. Since I'm convinced that at least one wolf voted for Anguirel, my suspicion is concentrated on Shelob, Enca, Underhill and Lhuna. It seems easier to find one out of four than two out of twelve! (sound mathematics, that!)

Shelob has already voted for Lhuna today. That could tell us something, but what? A wolf pretending to lynch another wolf? Or an innocent guessing?

***Mister Underhill*** · 10-20-2005, 09:36 AM

Well it's no fun to wake up and find that not only do I have the blood of an innocent on my hands, but now I'm a chief suspect as well. I mourn Anguirel, but I curse him too -- by offering his neck for the noose, he may end up bringing another innocent -- me -- down with him, and that would be a sad legacy.

There are a few things to remember about the voting. One is that Ang offered himself. This was incredibly foolish! None of you innocents do it again. Not only does it make you look suspicious, but in a situation like last night, where there is almost no information to go on, it makes you seem a safe vote. Enough of us will die under the jaws of these things without us volunteering.

Also Cailin is only dead because we had a wise hunter. Cailin *didn't* get voted down by us. So I don't see how a vote for Cailin makes anyone golden.

If the wolves were smart, and I have no doubt they were, they'd want to space out their votes, and hold at least one until fairly late in case of trouble. Since Cailin voted early on, I'd say that puts everyone from Mormegil back under suspicion (I realize this still leaves me on the suspicious list).

The way the voting stood when Morm cast the first vote for Cailin, it would have been an easy throwaway vote for a wolf to divert suspicion, but I think this unlikely. Still it's not out of the realm of possibility -- at this point it seemed unlikely that Cailin would be voted, and Morm could have this vote to show later if the two of them were ever linked.

Morm and Firefoot voted two in a row for Cailin, so it seems unlikely to me that they're both wolves.

Then along comes lmp and casts a third vote for Cailin. This would be an audacious vote for a wolf. It would put Cailin ahead, but with the possible knowledge that another wolf could come along and create a tie, sparing Cailin. Don't know what to think here, and it seems a stretch now that I'm writing it down.

Enca's vote for Ang created a three-way tie for second, an interesting setup but I don't see much in it to suspect either innocent or guilty.

Then yours truly blunders in and creates a situation which would have hanged both Cailin and Anguirel. I can see why this casts some suspicion on me. Well, I can only say that I should have been more attentive to the way the vote stood. My vote was cast solely for the reason I gave in my vote post -- "He's offered himself, so it's either a safe vote or I'm calling his wolfish bluff." -- and without regard to the tally, which I see now was a mistake.

I only hope you will see that a wolf, even a newbie wolf, wouldn't make a move that would cast such obvious suspicion on himself.

If Feanor is a wolf who held her vote until very late, she made a good one -- not tipping her hand by saving Cailin with an Anguirel vote, but creating a situation which could have led to a double-lynching that would have taken down Boromir with her fellow wolf.

Lhuna's tie-breaker sealed the fate of Anguirel and saved Cailin, at least from our collective cudgels -- but would a wolf make such an obvious blundering move? Probably not.

I have to admit that my own analysis leaves me looking more likely a werewolf than not, but I can only plead inexperience and restate emphatically that I am innocent. Have the seer dream of me, put me to any test. I don't much like being in the position of knowing that I'm innocent but having suspicious eyes cast on me, but here I am.

I'm almost too bewildered to come up with my own suspcions. Based on my analysis, I'd say Feanor's crafty vote makes her my top suspect.

littlemanpoet · 10-20-2005, 04:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mister Underhill

Then yours truly blunders in and creates a situation which would have hanged both Cailin and Anguirel. I can see why this casts some suspicion on me. Well, I can only say that I should have been more attentive to the way the vote stood. My vote was cast solely for the reason I gave in my vote post -- "He's offered himself, so it's either a safe vote or I'm calling his wolfish bluff." -- and without regard to the tally, which I see now was a mistake.

If Feanor is a wolf who held her vote until very late, she made a good one -- not tipping her hand by saving Cailin with an Anguirel vote, but creating a situation which could have led to a double-lynching that would have taken down Boromir with her fellow wolf.

I have to admit that my own analysis leaves me looking more likely a werewolf than not, but I can only plead inexperience and restate emphatically that I am innocent. Have the seer dream of me, put me to any test. I don't much like being in the position of knowing that I'm innocent but having suspicious eyes cast on me, but here I am.

The sheer guilelessness of your post leaves me leaning toward your innocence, Mr. U.. I do see, however, that your first day's errors (if that is what they were) have led immediately to some pretty astute thinking regarding Feanor.

littlemanpoet · 10-20-2005, 03:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Firefoot

I'm not assuming the innocence of Morm or LMP, though it does seem likely. There were six people already voted for when Morm voted; he could have easily voted for one of them if he were a wolf. I'm thinking that LMP is a wolf only if the third wolf hadn't voted yet. I'm not saying that it wouldn't be a wolvish ploy to try and vote out one of their own, but with the voting so broad, it was quite unnecessary.

If LMP is not a wolf, therefore, then the third wolf had not voted yet, which means it would have to be Enca, Mr. U., Fea, or Lhuna; just to follow your reasoning one step further, Firefoot. By the way, I think you are wise not to assume the innocence of Morm or me, not because we are werewolves, but because the evidence is too limited to draw such strong conclusions.

Formendacil · 10-20-2005, 11:05 AM

And so another day comes, with another day's killing, and thanks be to the Valar, Eomer managed to catch us our first Werewolf. Compared with my past life in another village, this is a great improvement- except for my new job of course. Shovelling refuse when I used to write it is no improvement...

And now, to my personal feelings...

Estelyn seems a little be out of place. Her vote for Shelob yesterday truly does seem random, and she has certainly not seemed entirely comfortable in all this confusion. On the other hand, she's definitely an intelligent lady, and the whole "out of place" business COULD be a very careful ploy to appear innocent.

tgwbs also seems reasonably innocent. His vote for Shelob also doesn't seem particularly menacing. However, I have greater qualms about him than about Estelyn. He is, after all, a dwarf experienced at life in villages with Werewolf problems. If he was the Werewolf, then he would likely want Shelob removed, knowing her reputation as being too smart to survive long.

Boromir, having voted for me, is naturally somewhat suspicious in my mind. But I'm willing to let that pass as having been a random vote. However, he plays an uncanny game, and it is possible that he was a Werewolf looking for a random vote to throw away on Day 1.

Shelob, as the one who started voting for Anguirel, could have been an innocent villager casting a random vote. Anguirel WAS, after all, playing a rather foolish game with that "lynch me" bluff- especially once they took him up on it. However, Shelob doesn't seem that suspicious.

Mormegil's vote for Cailin at the point in the game that he voted is rather suspicious. With Cailin getting tied up as the third person with two votes, it is quite possible that he was a Werewolf trying to appear as her opposite- a villager. On the other hand, he is the one who brought her up to what I'll call, Bandwaggon status

Firefoot's vote for for Cailin at this point seems to exonerate her. After all, it put Cailin squarely in the lead, which would be a very dangerous move for her to make. A thought that came to me, though, is that Firefoot very deliberately voted for Cailin, hoping to get her lynched off, and so have an "innocent" status for the rest of the game. A very unlikely possibility, but one that occurred to me... On whole, I'd say that Firefoot is innocent.

Where Firefoot's vote for Cailin can be construed to look suspicious, I suppose that lmp's is even worse in the same way. The question, though, is whether or not lmp has the audacity to kill off a fellow Werewolf. I don't know him as well as I'd like, but I tend to think that, in spite of his bluster, he would have a hard time casually sentencing a fellow wolf, when there was no danger to himself, so easily. And so, I think him (for now, anyway) innocent.

Enca's vote for Anguirel brought the Anguirel bandwaggon back to live after a fairly long hiatus. This could be another Werewolf, trying to divert suspicion, but there isn't really any evidence to suggest that she wasn't doing just what she said she was doing: voting for a suspicious character. However, she's definitely someone to keep an eye on...

Mr. U was suspicious for frivolous reasons when I voted for him yesterday. They are much more concrete today, when we see that his vote is what brought Anguirel up to a tie with Cailin. If Encaitare is suspicious regarding the idea of a Werewolf trying to save Cailin, then Mister Underhill is doubly so. And there is still that "frivolous" matter of his keen intelligence and "playing dumb" act...

Fea is suspicious just because she is Fea. She could also have been a Werewolf trying to save Cailin, for her vote also brought Boromir up to the same amount of votes as Cailin. A risky maneuver that late in the Day, and not one guaranteed to save Cailin, for it was quite possible that Lhuna would not have made it in to vote in time, or that if she had, she would not have picked Cailin. On the other hand, Fea is known to have sacrificed others for her own sake before, and has said as much in her post (#143) this morning. Right up there with Mister Underhill on my suspicions list.

And then there's Lhuna. Her vote for Anguirel saved Cailin, and if the Werewolves hadn't been so unfortunate as to kill Eomer last night, Cailin would still be with us today- trying to kill someone. Overall, I don't think Lhuna as likely a Werewolf as Fea or Mister Underhill, on account of the timezone difference, but I am also hesitant to declare her innocent on the basis of that as well.

All in all, I am most suspicious of the late-voters. Fea and Mister Underhill top the list, with Lhuna and Encai sitting somewhat lower. After that, I think it either TGWBS or Boromir, but those two register very low on the suspicion scale...

Feanor of the Peredhil · 10-20-2005, 11:36 AM

Since that horrible thing that is the world outside of Erbar Telemarth just made me very upset, I'm going to direct my anger somewhere far more productive than swearing a lot and kicking things; namely... here.

I figure I should let you all know that I will refute no suspicions against myself. If you have actual evidence that is leading you wrong (by wrong I mean "she's obviously a wolf because") I'll actually bother to correct you. But there is little point in my arguing about why you shouldn't suspect me, because I'd yell at you if you automatically assumed me innocent. That's as bad as automatically assuming that a wolf wouldn't vote off their fellows. It's sloppy, and sloppy is only good when it's planned sloppy.

You should all suspect me simply because there is no proof in my innocence. My word is obviously not good, as if I was a wolf, I'd be lying through my teeth... or, more likely, telling the flat out truth and letting you think I was lying. It takes a lot less effort to double-bluff than it does to just lie. So my point is, since you should suspect me, I won't tell you not to. You should decide either to lynch me and regret it in the morning, or let me live and maybe hopefully not regret listening to what I say. I say maybe because I can't guarantee being at all right. I say that to let you know that I'm not Seer. I also say it with the sad realization that outright stating "I'm not Seer" means that I can't lie later to save someone I think is the Seer, unless of course I use the ruse "Why would I admit to it? Of course I'd lie!" In any case...

Those that I currently most suspect are those that voted for Cailìn. Following them, I suspect TGWBS. He's not as... in depth as usual. It makes me wonder if he's maybe trying to play a slightly different game than he normally would. I had expected lists, theories, strategies, and psychoanalyzation. Day 1, I saw weredwarvery.

I've got to run to class, but I'll check in yet again later.

***Mister Underhill*** · 10-20-2005, 12:16 PM

I wish I could take credit for a crafty "playing dumb" game, but if I'm doing dumb stuff, it's unfortunately just dumb stuff. You've all been in werewolf-stricken villages before and have some past history to play off of. It works against me doubly -- not only am I in the dark about your different styles in a werewolf crisis, but I am an unknown quantity which naturally makes people suspicious of me.

It's maddening really -- it seems we have very little to go on except for the vote and the timing of the vote, and knowing as I do that my own vote and its timing were just this side of random, I have almost nothing to base suspicions upon. I almost wish I were a wolf, just so I could feel a little more in control of the fight.

I'm not sure why Lhuna has already cast a vote for me. "For reasons already stated above," she says, but she never mentions me at all in her previous post. Maybe she means reasons stated by other villagers?

Encaitare · 10-20-2005, 01:42 PM

It is good to know that Eomer's death was not in vain.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr. Underhill

There are a few things to remember about the voting. One is that Ang offered himself. This was incredibly foolish! None of you innocents do it again. Not only does it make you look suspicious, but in a situation like last night, where there is almost no information to go on, it makes you seem a safe vote. Enough of us will die under the jaws of these things without us volunteering.

Thank you for stating so well exactly what I was going to say. Anguirel was a safe vote, which is why many of us chose him. Certainly we regret it now, but you all must admit that at the time it made sense.

Since Mr. Underhill is now participating more, my suspicions of him have waned. Lhuna's very early vote is questionable... I know she has a big time difference, but she managed to vote later than that on Day 1. Her breaking of the three-way tie by voting for Ang could come off as suspicious... but she her "reasons stated above" may have been the reasons I offered. Only she can tell us that, though.

Those who voted for Cailin:
1. Mormegil
2. Firefoot
3. lmp

Mormegil voted for her when there were already two people with two votes each, and many people with one each. He may have thought that people would bandwagon onto those with two, Shelob and Boromir, and that people would ignore his vote for Cailin. Later, he may have thought, if she was found out, he could fall back on that vote to say that a wolf would not have voted for another wolf on Day 1.

Firefoot I am not sure about. Probably innocent, but it could have been a bold move.

LMP is most likely innocent. I'm reluctant to say definitely, even though I am really willing to rule him out right now, just because I don't want to set anything in stone. But I sincerely doubt that a wolf would have voted for Cailin and put her in the lead to be lynched.

Again, I shall be back tonight, and maybe later this afternoon as well.

littlemanpoet · 10-20-2005, 03:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil

Expect the worst and prepare for it. How hard would you kick yourselves if I'm right in my vague suspicion of LMP (agian...

)? You've immediately discount him based on faulty evidence just because of the assumption that nobody would be that audacious. ... Just... please don't underestimate? Please?

Actually, I quite agree with this, except, of course, about Fea's suspicion of me. Which is why I'm not letting Fea off the hook either.

Now get to work, wench.

***Mister Underhill*** · 10-20-2005, 03:48 PM

Now I'm in a pickle not of my own devising. By an accident of timezones and deadlines, it's very easy for me to vote late. Do I wait and gather more information? Do I vote now so that it doesn't look like I'm waiting for a chance to swing the vote?

I'm still suspicious of Feanor, who warns us not to trust anyone, won't say she's innocent, and cast a critical vote yesterday.

I'm not sure where the Shelob suspicion is coming from other than that she's playing an almost silent game.

I'd still like to hear one of the Cailin trio tell me what caused them to cast their vote as they did -- especially lmp, who put so much stress on posts 41-51 but has never really explained why as far as I can remember.

I'll hold my vote for a little while, I guess, to see if answers to these questions develop.

Feanor of the Peredhil · 10-20-2005, 04:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mister Underhill

I'm still suspicious of Feanor,who warns us not to trust anyone, won't say she's innocent, and cast a critical vote yesterday.

Hilariously enough, you've just reminded me that I forgot to actually tell you why I won't say that I'm innocent (which I am

) any more. It's because I was running late and only just made it to class on time when I realize "oh crap, I'm running late" and posted quick.

I'm not going to keep saying this because either you believed me the first time, or you didn't. Once you get an idea in your head, nothing I'm going to insistently say will turn you. It's a waste of time and energy to keep refuting, when all that will do is distract from what's important: actually catching the baddies.

And I agree with the trouble of timezones. My own late vote is enough for that. It looks like "oh, Fea held off her vote as a wolf to _____" filling in the blank with whatever you like. It's not even that. I'm a college student which means I'm up 'til all hours getting homework done. As I'm in EST, "all hours" includes those in which Days and Nights end. I simply take advantage of all of the discussion to try not to waste my vote when anything could happen to make me think "oh, this one's a wolf. It's obvious now. Time to vote!"

X's and O's, and off to homework. Even though it's still early.

Feanor of the Peredhil · 10-20-2005, 04:16 PM

Another thought:

So Cailin would have died with Boromir? I thought Ang would have... That's not cool. I wanted Boromir to die, but I wasn't expecting Cai to. Heck, I still want to off Boromir. It's just one of those things...

10-20-2005, 08:09 AM	#5
mormegil Maundering Mage Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Texas Posts: 4,651	I don't have much to say right now other than for my purposes today I will be assuming that LMP and Firefoot are innocent. I realize that there could be one wolf in the three of us but it's not incredibly likely, though possible, but having the two remaining wolves is rather improbable so to help clear up my head I will look to those other two as innocent for today and then reevaluate tomorrow. Edit: the only way to clear up the Fea confusion is the time tested method of lynching her. __________________ “I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo. "So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us.”

10-20-2005, 08:10 AM	#7
Estelyn Telcontar Princess of Skwerlz Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: where the Sea is eastwards (WtR: 6060 miles) Posts: 7,500	I've been rehashing yesterDay's discussions and my head is spinning. After only one day, though we were lucky to lose a werewolf already, there still isn't enough evidence for anything even closely resembling certainty. Since I'm convinced that at least one wolf voted for Anguirel, my suspicion is concentrated on Shelob, Enca, Underhill and Lhuna. It seems easier to find one out of four than two out of twelve! (sound mathematics, that!) Shelob has already voted for Lhuna today. That could tell us something, but what? A wolf pretending to lynch another wolf? Or an innocent guessing? __________________ 'Mercy!' cried Gandalf. 'If the giving of information is to be the cure of your inquisitiveness, I shall spend all the rest of my days in answering you. What more do you want to know?' 'The whole history of Middle-earth...' Last edited by Estelyn Telcontar; 10-20-2005 at 08:14 AM.

10-20-2005, 11:05 AM	#11
Formendacil Dead Serious Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Perched on Thangorodrim's towers. Posts: 3,328	And so another day comes, with another day's killing, and thanks be to the Valar, Eomer managed to catch us our first Werewolf. Compared with my past life in another village, this is a great improvement- except for my new job of course. Shovelling refuse when I used to write it is no improvement... And now, to my personal feelings... Estelyn seems a little be out of place. Her vote for Shelob yesterday truly does seem random, and she has certainly not seemed entirely comfortable in all this confusion. On the other hand, she's definitely an intelligent lady, and the whole "out of place" business COULD be a very careful ploy to appear innocent. tgwbs also seems reasonably innocent. His vote for Shelob also doesn't seem particularly menacing. However, I have greater qualms about him than about Estelyn. He is, after all, a dwarf experienced at life in villages with Werewolf problems. If he was the Werewolf, then he would likely want Shelob removed, knowing her reputation as being too smart to survive long. Boromir, having voted for me, is naturally somewhat suspicious in my mind. But I'm willing to let that pass as having been a random vote. However, he plays an uncanny game, and it is possible that he was a Werewolf looking for a random vote to throw away on Day 1. Shelob, as the one who started voting for Anguirel, could have been an innocent villager casting a random vote. Anguirel WAS, after all, playing a rather foolish game with that "lynch me" bluff- especially once they took him up on it. However, Shelob doesn't seem that suspicious. Mormegil's vote for Cailin at the point in the game that he voted is rather suspicious. With Cailin getting tied up as the third person with two votes, it is quite possible that he was a Werewolf trying to appear as her opposite- a villager. On the other hand, he is the one who brought her up to what I'll call, Bandwaggon status Firefoot's vote for for Cailin at this point seems to exonerate her. After all, it put Cailin squarely in the lead, which would be a very dangerous move for her to make. A thought that came to me, though, is that Firefoot very deliberately voted for Cailin, hoping to get her lynched off, and so have an "innocent" status for the rest of the game. A very unlikely possibility, but one that occurred to me... On whole, I'd say that Firefoot is innocent. Where Firefoot's vote for Cailin can be construed to look suspicious, I suppose that lmp's is even worse in the same way. The question, though, is whether or not lmp has the audacity to kill off a fellow Werewolf. I don't know him as well as I'd like, but I tend to think that, in spite of his bluster, he would have a hard time casually sentencing a fellow wolf, when there was no danger to himself, so easily. And so, I think him (for now, anyway) innocent. Enca's vote for Anguirel brought the Anguirel bandwaggon back to live after a fairly long hiatus. This could be another Werewolf, trying to divert suspicion, but there isn't really any evidence to suggest that she wasn't doing just what she said she was doing: voting for a suspicious character. However, she's definitely someone to keep an eye on... Mr. U was suspicious for frivolous reasons when I voted for him yesterday. They are much more concrete today, when we see that his vote is what brought Anguirel up to a tie with Cailin. If Encaitare is suspicious regarding the idea of a Werewolf trying to save Cailin, then Mister Underhill is doubly so. And there is still that "frivolous" matter of his keen intelligence and "playing dumb" act... Fea is suspicious just because she is Fea. She could also have been a Werewolf trying to save Cailin, for her vote also brought Boromir up to the same amount of votes as Cailin. A risky maneuver that late in the Day, and not one guaranteed to save Cailin, for it was quite possible that Lhuna would not have made it in to vote in time, or that if she had, she would not have picked Cailin. On the other hand, Fea is known to have sacrificed others for her own sake before, and has said as much in her post (#143) this morning. Right up there with Mister Underhill on my suspicions list. And then there's Lhuna. Her vote for Anguirel saved Cailin, and if the Werewolves hadn't been so unfortunate as to kill Eomer last night, Cailin would still be with us today- trying to kill someone. Overall, I don't think Lhuna as likely a Werewolf as Fea or Mister Underhill, on account of the timezone difference, but I am also hesitant to declare her innocent on the basis of that as well. All in all, I am most suspicious of the late-voters. Fea and Mister Underhill top the list, with Lhuna and Encai sitting somewhat lower. After that, I think it either TGWBS or Boromir, but those two register very low on the suspicion scale... __________________ I prefer history, true or feigned.

10-20-2005, 11:36 AM	#12
Feanor of the Peredhil La Belle Dame sans Merci Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: perpetual uncertainty Posts: 5,517	Since that horrible thing that is the world outside of Erbar Telemarth just made me very upset, I'm going to direct my anger somewhere far more productive than swearing a lot and kicking things; namely... here. I figure I should let you all know that I will refute no suspicions against myself. If you have actual evidence that is leading you wrong (by wrong I mean "she's obviously a wolf because") I'll actually bother to correct you. But there is little point in my arguing about why you shouldn't suspect me, because I'd yell at you if you automatically assumed me innocent. That's as bad as automatically assuming that a wolf wouldn't vote off their fellows. It's sloppy, and sloppy is only good when it's planned sloppy. You should all suspect me simply because there is no proof in my innocence. My word is obviously not good, as if I was a wolf, I'd be lying through my teeth... or, more likely, telling the flat out truth and letting you think I was lying. It takes a lot less effort to double-bluff than it does to just lie. So my point is, since you should suspect me, I won't tell you not to. You should decide either to lynch me and regret it in the morning, or let me live and maybe hopefully not regret listening to what I say. I say maybe because I can't guarantee being at all right. I say that to let you know that I'm not Seer. I also say it with the sad realization that outright stating "I'm not Seer" means that I can't lie later to save someone I think is the Seer, unless of course I use the ruse "Why would I admit to it? Of course I'd lie!" In any case... Those that I currently most suspect are those that voted for Cailìn. Following them, I suspect TGWBS. He's not as... in depth as usual. It makes me wonder if he's maybe trying to play a slightly different game than he normally would. I had expected lists, theories, strategies, and psychoanalyzation. Day 1, I saw weredwarvery. I've got to run to class, but I'll check in yet again later. __________________ peace

10-20-2005, 04:16 PM	#18
Feanor of the Peredhil La Belle Dame sans Merci Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: perpetual uncertainty Posts: 5,517	Another thought: So Cailin would have died with Boromir? I thought Ang would have... That's not cool. I wanted Boromir to die, but I wasn't expecting Cai to. Heck, I still want to off Boromir. It's just one of those things... __________________ peace

10-20-2005, 07:24 AM	#4
Firefoot Illusionary Holbytla Join Date: Dec 2003 Posts: 7,547	Boromir, I'm not sure where you get yourself to be a proven innocent, except to yourself, maybe. You're not dead, we don't have the Seer's word, and you don't have a vote to say that you're probably innocent. I am leaning toward your innocence (or at least, I was, mostly due to your unconcerned manner, but it's posts like that that keep me concerned), but that doesn't preclude Fea's guilt. She's just about as likely to be a wolf as anyone. I'm not assuming the innocence of Morm or LMP, though it does seem likely. There were six people already voted for when Morm voted; he could have easily voted for one of them if he were a wolf. I'm thinking that LMP is a wolf only if the third wolf hadn't voted yet. I'm not saying that it wouldn't be a wolvish ploy to try and vote out one of their own, but with the voting so broad, it was quite unnecessary. I'm still suspicious of Formendacil. We all seem to be assuming that the wolf voted later and with strategy concerned with Cailin, but there are RL circumstances to prevent that. A wolf could very well have voted earlier, as Cailin did. Shelob is also edging up on my suspicion list. Before, she was on my watchlist because basically everyone was. Day 1 is too soon to discount anybody. But I really don't understand the accusations she was making at the end of Day 1. Also, her continued insistence that the wolves wouldn't kill her during the night is disconcerting. As for the other people who voted for Ang: Encai - she just doesn't seem very suspicious to me. Her posts make very logical sense to me, and I tend to agree with her statements. Mr. Underhill - I'm not sure what to think of him. He's on my suspicion list, but other than his late vote for Ang, I can't come up with anything concrete. Lhuna - That's a question, isn't it? Her vote for Ang could easily have been chance or calculated. It would have been a difficult decision for either a wolf or an innocent. She's on my suspicion list, but I don't think her vote for Ang is enough reason to lynch her unless we have no other better suspects. Others: Esty - I'm not sure about her, but right now I'm leaning innocent. There are too many people I find more suspicious than her. TGWBS - Also leaning innocent. More suspicious than Esty, maybe, but his analysis of yesterday's voting largely made sense to me. Fea - I could go either way. While I haven't seen anything outstandingly suspicious about her, I wouldn't expect to; nor would I put anything past her. If she was an innocent, she honestly wouldn't know about any of the three (Ang, Cailin, and Borormir); and if she were a wolf her vote for Boromir basically says that she doesn't care which of those three dies and gives the remaining person another option so as not to be overtly protecting Cailin. And actually, from Fea, I think a vote sealing Cailin's fate would have made her look more suspicious. But then, she could be double-bluffing. It's Fea. All that to say "leaning innocent."

10-20-2005, 09:36 AM	#8
*Mister Underhill* Dread Horseman Join Date: Sep 2000 Location: Behind you! Posts: 2,744	Well it's no fun to wake up and find that not only do I have the blood of an innocent on my hands, but now I'm a chief suspect as well. I mourn Anguirel, but I curse him too -- by offering his neck for the noose, he may end up bringing another innocent -- me -- down with him, and that would be a sad legacy. There are a few things to remember about the voting. One is that Ang offered himself. This was incredibly foolish! None of you innocents do it again. Not only does it make you look suspicious, but in a situation like last night, where there is almost no information to go on, it makes you seem a safe vote. Enough of us will die under the jaws of these things without us volunteering. Also Cailin is only dead because we had a wise hunter. Cailin didn't get voted down by us. So I don't see how a vote for Cailin makes anyone golden. If the wolves were smart, and I have no doubt they were, they'd want to space out their votes, and hold at least one until fairly late in case of trouble. Since Cailin voted early on, I'd say that puts everyone from Mormegil back under suspicion (I realize this still leaves me on the suspicious list). The way the voting stood when Morm cast the first vote for Cailin, it would have been an easy throwaway vote for a wolf to divert suspicion, but I think this unlikely. Still it's not out of the realm of possibility -- at this point it seemed unlikely that Cailin would be voted, and Morm could have this vote to show later if the two of them were ever linked. Morm and Firefoot voted two in a row for Cailin, so it seems unlikely to me that they're both wolves. Then along comes lmp and casts a third vote for Cailin. This would be an audacious vote for a wolf. It would put Cailin ahead, but with the possible knowledge that another wolf could come along and create a tie, sparing Cailin. Don't know what to think here, and it seems a stretch now that I'm writing it down. Enca's vote for Ang created a three-way tie for second, an interesting setup but I don't see much in it to suspect either innocent or guilty. Then yours truly blunders in and creates a situation which would have hanged both Cailin and Anguirel. I can see why this casts some suspicion on me. Well, I can only say that I should have been more attentive to the way the vote stood. My vote was cast solely for the reason I gave in my vote post -- "He's offered himself, so it's either a safe vote or I'm calling his wolfish bluff." -- and without regard to the tally, which I see now was a mistake. I only hope you will see that a wolf, even a newbie wolf, wouldn't make a move that would cast such obvious suspicion on himself. If Feanor is a wolf who held her vote until very late, she made a good one -- not tipping her hand by saving Cailin with an Anguirel vote, but creating a situation which could have led to a double-lynching that would have taken down Boromir with her fellow wolf. Lhuna's tie-breaker sealed the fate of Anguirel and saved Cailin, at least from our collective cudgels -- but would a wolf make such an obvious blundering move? Probably not. I have to admit that my own analysis leaves me looking more likely a werewolf than not, but I can only plead inexperience and restate emphatically that I am innocent. Have the seer dream of me, put me to any test. I don't much like being in the position of knowing that I'm innocent but having suspicious eyes cast on me, but here I am. I'm almost too bewildered to come up with my own suspcions. Based on my analysis, I'd say Feanor's crafty vote makes her my top suspect.

10-20-2005, 12:16 PM	#13
*Mister Underhill* Dread Horseman Join Date: Sep 2000 Location: Behind you! Posts: 2,744	I wish I could take credit for a crafty "playing dumb" game, but if I'm doing dumb stuff, it's unfortunately just dumb stuff. You've all been in werewolf-stricken villages before and have some past history to play off of. It works against me doubly -- not only am I in the dark about your different styles in a werewolf crisis, but I am an unknown quantity which naturally makes people suspicious of me. It's maddening really -- it seems we have very little to go on except for the vote and the timing of the vote, and knowing as I do that my own vote and its timing were just this side of random, I have almost nothing to base suspicions upon. I almost wish I were a wolf, just so I could feel a little more in control of the fight. I'm not sure why Lhuna has already cast a vote for me. "For reasons already stated above," she says, but she never mentions me at all in her previous post. Maybe she means reasons stated by other villagers?

10-20-2005, 03:48 PM	#16
*Mister Underhill* Dread Horseman Join Date: Sep 2000 Location: Behind you! Posts: 2,744	Now I'm in a pickle not of my own devising. By an accident of timezones and deadlines, it's very easy for me to vote late. Do I wait and gather more information? Do I vote now so that it doesn't look like I'm waiting for a chance to swing the vote? I'm still suspicious of Feanor, who warns us not to trust anyone, won't say she's innocent, and cast a critical vote yesterday. I'm not sure where the Shelob suspicion is coming from other than that she's playing an almost silent game. I'd still like to hear one of the Cailin trio tell me what caused them to cast their vote as they did -- especially lmp, who put so much stress on posts 41-51 but has never really explained why as far as I can remember. I'll hold my vote for a little while, I guess, to see if answers to these questions develop.