Welcome to Tol-in-Gauroth XI 'Fall of the Fall'

[Formendacil]

Another day... another great loss... And already the Villagers-that-be are fighting- and this time they fight over which one is the Hunter: Mormegil or Abercrombie?

And so, my list:

Saucepan Man: As noted yesterday, Eomer's conviction goes miles towards helping exonerate Sauce. Unless he's our Cursed Wolf, which to me seems unlikely now, he is definitely a villager, it would seem. Cailin's faith in him prior to yesterday backs that up.

Boromir88: I trusted Boromir yesterday, and his successful diagnosis of the Wolf-Eomer only serves to firm up my feeling that he is, in fact, a most likely innocent villager.

Mormegil: I trusted Mormegil yesterday, but the fact that he didn't vote for Eomer- at a very crucial time too, when Eomer was leading in votes, but still at an early, indecisive, stage, is most distressing- as is his status as one of the claimants to the Hunter title. Thus far, I'm tempted to think Abercrombie the Wolf- but not definitively. In any case, Mormegil seems VERY suspicious.

Wilwarin: That Wilwa went along with Mormegil right after he started the Alcarillo distraction gives me reason to think that she could be another wolf. If anything, I suspect her MORE than Morm, since he COULD just possibly be the Hunter (although I think it unlikely at the moment).

Marcolie Lamen: Seems very unlikely right now to be anything other than an innocent villager. The only strike against her is that she's quiet- but as my own case shows, that doesn't necessarily indicate guilt, only a reason for a quiet suspicion. However, with bigger targets like Morm and Wilwa on the horizon, I am willing to pronounce her innocent- for now.

Abercrombie of Rohan: Seems more likely than Morm to be the Hunter, but the if she's NOT the Hunter, then she's definitely the Wolf. However, she seems a more likely hunter if only on the basis of the fact that she DID vote for Eomer yesterday, whereas Mormegil started, or tried to start, a diversionary vote.

Arcticstorm: I still don't trust Arcticstorm 100%, but his vote WAS the deciding one that killed off Eomer. I suppose it's possible he saw what way the wind was blowing, and wanted to avoid suspiction... No judgment here, just a cautious note to watch him.

Azaelia of Willowbottom: Seems suspicious. Her vote for Eomer came after he was already convicted de facto. Is it just an attempt to ingratiate herself with the Villagers, or is it a sign that she is one of them? Somehow, it seems easier to picture it as the former...

Alcarillo: This guy has me stumped. The fact that Morm and Wilwa voted for him in their attempt to upset the Eomer bandwaggon suggests that he is an innocent, but it COULD be the fourth wolf, keeping a low profile. What's more, he doesn't vote for ANYONE, which is even more suspicious, in my opinion. If Morm and Wilwa ARE the Wolves, then he's my bet for the last member of the quartet.

Overall, I think it will be clear who my big suspicions are: Morm and Wilwa. Their behaviour yesterday, and even more so the behaviour of Morm regarding the Hunter, strikes me as dangerous.

I would say that it would be best to strike down Wilwa. IF by some chance Morm is innocent, we will know when he dies tomorrow- and thus be certain that Abercrombie is a wolf...

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by mormegil

I've told you my motives for telling you.

I can understand a morm-Hunter's motives for revealing himself, but I can also see good reasons for a morm-Wolf to claim the Hunter role. Being under some pressure and in danger of being lynched, he saw an opportunity to flush out the Hunter, which is important information for the Wolves, and possibly take the Hunter down with him. If the Hunter is dead, or if at least his/her identity is known to the Wolves, they can kill at Night without fear of losing one of their own.

What I find difficult to understand is why an Abercrombie-Wolf would claim to be the Hunter in response to a Hunter-morm's declaration. Why put herself at such risk? The only possibility I can think of is that she wanted to protect another Wolf who was looking to be in danger. Which would point to wilwarin, about whom many doubts have been expressed to-Day already. On the other hand, why put herself in the firing line to save a Wolf who will remain under suspicion?

Originally Posted by mormegil

But what I would like to see happen is continued discussion as to who the other wolves may be so this day isn't wasted solely on AoR and me.

Oh, I have no intention of neglecting discussion of the other Wolves. Indeed, I think that it is essential that we all continue to put forward our thoughts, since this may well assist the Hunter in making his or her choice should s/he survive to-Day and be targetted by the Wolves to-Night.

Originally Posted by Marcolie Lamen

Another possibility is for us to lynch neither if we had strong suspisions on someone else. The wolves wouldn't be able to kill the hunter without losing one of their own at night too and we'd be able to watch the two of them for more suspicious activity.

I can see the sense in this - provided that we are confident in our choice. Clearly it would be better to-Day to lynch either mormegil or Abercrombie (resulting in the certain death of a Wolf) than to lynch an ordinary and innocent Villager.

On current thinking, and subject to further discussion, I would not be averse to the idea of lynching wilwarin to-Day.

Formendacil, your thoughts very much mirror my own, which helps to nourish my growing confidence in you. I will expand on my thoughts on the remaining villagers later to-Day.

[wilwarin538]

Well I'm not even going to try to defend myself since you all seem so sure about me. But I will tell you(though it probably won't do much) that it will be a mistake if you lynch me.

I think Morm is the one lying about being the Hunter. I really don't think a wolf would pretend to be the Hunter after someone already admitted to it.

Yesterday I voted for Alcarillo, it was obviously one of my mistakes(I seem to be making a lot of those). I was terribly wrong about Eomer.

Now if both Morm and I were wolves, I seriously doubt we both would have voted for Alcarillo, especially within a few posts of each other. Eomer was most likely going to be lynched, that was fairly obvious at that point I believe. So I don't think two of the other wolves would have tried to get the voting in another direction. I was a fool to follow along with it.

Now let me guess. You are all going to say this was all a wolfish trick. Well fine. But it isn't.

I am going to vote now. Hopefully this will be my first right vote in the game(even though for all we know my vote for Alcarillo could have still been right)

++Mormegil

crossposted with Boro

[The Saucepan Man]

Ack! Boromir88! Just as I was beginning to get a good feeling about you, you go and put in an early vote. Don’t get me wrong. I still view morm as the more likely Wolf out of our two possible Hunters. But I intend to wait and hear what everyone has to say before finally making up my mind and casting my vote.

Now that I think on’t, you are habitually one of the earliest voters. Is there any reason in particular for that?

And could you also put my mind to rest on one other tiny residual niggle that I have. Am I to understand you to be saying that your response to Cailin’s comment about Eomer being a suicidal Wolf shows that you realised at that point that she was the Seer and that this therefore speaks in your favour? It’s just that, while I don’t doubt that you (like me) were confident of her identity by the start of the next Day, I don’t see anything in your response there to suggest that you realised it there and then.

I’m not accusing you. Not yet, anyway. It’s just that, even if it is the case (as I believe) that mormegil and wilwa are Wolves, there is still one more to catch. And I am fairly sure that, as things have developed during yester-Day and to-Day, that Wolf will have been doing his or her darnedest to distance him/her-self from the other Wolves. So, while I am inclined to trust some more than others, I am still not discounting anybody (except whoever out of morm and Abercrombie turns out not to be a Wolf).

Wilwarin has said nothing to assuage my belief in her guilt. Her vote for mormegil does not surprise me, nor does it reassure me about her. And I don’t regard it as unlikely that two Wolves voted for Alcarillo yester-Day. The point has been made on a number of occasions that Wolves like to spread their votes around, so perhaps they thought that we would assume that two Wolves would not vote for the same person. Certainly, that’s what wilwarin seems to be claiming in her defence.

And, while on the subject of Alcarillo – where the deuce is he? His silence does concern me, because I have seen him about over the last Day or so. Did he speak at all yester-Day? He certainly did not vote, and he has not spoken yet to-Day. Why on earth would that be?

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

Now if both Morm and I were wolves, I seriously doubt we both would have voted for Alcarillo, especially within a few posts of each other. Eomer was most likely going to be lynched, that was fairly obvious at that point I believe. So I don't think two of the other wolves would have tried to get the voting in another direction. I was a fool to follow along with it.

No I don't either and you make a mistake in saying this Wilwa, for when my innocence is proven, as it surely will be today, you will be implicated further. So I truly hope that you are not innocent.

*Sigh* I don't know what else I can say. I've been accused of making up crazy theories but it seems they are being made up about me too. Why would a Morm-Wolf (knowing the way these things work) declare himself the wolf? The only possible reason would be to flush out the Hunter. The Hunter is usually a liability and they usually (always?) kill innocents. Why would the wolves be worried about them? I was rather taken aback when AoR claimed to be the Hunter too. If you lynch me today I promise you all that you will loose your last gifted! I know that won't be taken seriously but mark my words. The only person I see speaking any sense today, besides myself, is Márcolië Lamen.

SpM since you seem to think me guilty but at least have a level head about it please do an analysis of what an innocent mormegil would mean and strategy for tomorrow. That way you can get a head start on it.

I see Wilwa's vote yesterday as an attempt to save her friend. I will pride myself on knowing that I helped flush out two wolves if Wilwa turns out to be one too. I knew Alcarillo would not be lynched but that Eomer would. So a vote for him was rather meaningless. However the wolves would view this as a chance to not vote for their comrade and give him a fighting chance. Think about it. And SpM please take my request seriously. If you are innocent you will thank me in the end.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by mormegil

Why would a Morm-Wolf (knowing the way these things work) declare himself the wolf? (emphasis added)

Freudian slip, anyone?

[arcticstorm]

AS of right now, I am beginning to lean more towards the innocence of Mormegil, but that may change by the end of the day. My reason behind this is that I do not understand why a fake hunter would reveal himself when the real one is out there still. I am confused about this whole affair.

[Márcolië Lamen]

Why would a fake hunter declare himself when the hunter is out there or when the hunter just declared himself. Either way they know they're going to die. Its the same logic.

I'm thinking we may want to think about wilwarin and see if any more freudian slips or other hints come out from anyone.

I wouldn't say there's any reason to go against artic for feeling differently than us. Its best to have an innocent devil's advicate in case we're wrong.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Marcolie

Why would a fake hunter declare himself when the hunter is out there or when the hunter just declared himself. Either way they know they're going to die. Its the same logic.

Precisely. The difference, however, being that, prior to both revelations, I had directly accused mormegil of being a Wolf and Marcolie had indicated strong suspicions, whereas Abercrombie had not come under much suspicion at all. Surely the one under the greater pressure is the one more likely to resort to such a desperate ploy.

To coin a phrase used by our dearly departed Seer, are you sure you want to align yourself with a suicidal Wolf, Arctic?

I'd like to hear more from Abercrombie on this. And I'd also like to hear something - anything - from Azaelia and Alcarillo.