Welcome to Tol-in-Gauroth XI 'Fall of the Fall'

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

I'd appreciate hearing why you tink I'm the second wolf, Arctic. You didn't really explain yourself.

As I said before, I voted for Gil because I really didn't see any other options, and his posts were decidedly unhelpful. He posted no real evidence to support his claims over and over again. It was confusing and, as others have said, supposing he continued to act that way, we would have lynched him later anyhow.

So people make mistakes. My first post was a mistake. Gil's method of playing was a mistake. Voting for Gil was also a mistake. That doesn't make me a wolf. And it didn't make him a wolf, either.

[mormegil]

Eomer those are interesting thoughts on SpM. I'm not sure whether or not I believe that he is a wolf though. I will make it very clear that, most likely, I will vote for either Perky or Articstorm and hope that I get some support. Notice I said that I most likely will, thus meaning I may change my mind but not likely.

The death of Perky will tell us a couple of things. If he is a wolf then, as Articstorm said, we can assume that Spm, Wilwa and I are innocent. But what has troubled me is that Artic is insistent on assuming that Perky is innocent. Why should we assume that

a. Anybody is innocent and
b. That the person who got the second most votes is innocent

That's why it seems to me that Artic and Perky are in cahoots. Articstorm is all but refusing to accept the fact that Perky may be guilty, he seems to be trying desperatley to cast favorable light on him. The only time I do that is when I'm convinced of somebody's innocence ie when I did with Shelob, and she was innocent.

Eomer and others, in regards to SpM I'm sure that the seer has already dreampt of him or will do so soon. So I think it to be our goal to identify one or two of the wolves and if SpM is a wolf then the seer will find that one out for us.

[The Perky Ent]

So I'm still on the lists, eh? That's what I get for opening my mouth. Quiet ones die and loud ones die. Takes a werewolf to stay just enough under the radar. I think there's a talkative wolf out there, a standard wolf who posts every so often and mildly, and a quiet werewolf who is staying deep under the radar.

Originally Posted by morm

If he is a wolf then, as Articstorm said, we can assume that Spm, Wilwa and I are innocent.

Hmm....so when I die, SpM, Wilwa, and Mormegil are no longer suspects? Well, according to your plan I'm dead by then, but these people happen to be people i've recently come to suspect, and this could be a werewolf (Possibly Mormegil) trying to throw people off the tracks of his friends.

Once again, I'm advising against using formula's you can't check without around three days and a seer. I wouldn't do something where it's "If we lynch perky, these people are automatically innocent". At this point, I'm really not sure who to suspect, and since my last list was so suspicious, I'll have to think even more on it. At the end of the day, I'm going with my gut, and that's how I advise you to vote. To you really think the person you're voting for is innocent?

Yeah, I know. This was a bad post, but I'm freezing and haven't had enough time to gather my information!

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Based off voting from yesterday, I think one wolf voted for Gil-Galad.

It seems to me that Gil is the last innocent that the Wolves would have wanted lynched, if you take my meaning. I suspect that a Wolf would only have voted for Gil if s/he needed to do so to save his/her own skin or that of a fellow Wolf. Which rather puts Perky in the frame if a Wolf did vote for Gil.

I think it fairly likely that the Wolves avoided voting for the same person, unless they were forced to do so. And, if one of the Wolves did not vote, I would suspect arcticstorm more than Abercrombie who did, at least, make some useful contributions yester-Day.

Originally Posted by Perky

You just seem to have too much control.

Originally Posted by Abercrombie

I looked to someone who was, may I remind you, assuming the leadership position with his own knowledge.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

However, at this point I seem to be thinking along his same lines and as long as his suspects turn out to be wolves and not innocents then I have faith in him.

I don’t like all these suggestions that I am trying to assume leadership. I am attempting to do no such thing, and will not do so until and unless I become convinced of the identity of a Wolf. All I have at the moment are thoughts and suspicions and, as far as I am concerned, I am merely setting these out for the benefit of the village. It is up to people whether they listen to me or not. Certainly, Boro’s “condition” for trusting me seems to be a rather hard one to discharge. I get the feeling that I am being set up for a lynching in the event that any of my suspicions prove to be mistaken, which is almost inevitable in this game. Indeed, Eomer, in his attack on me (of which more later) referes to the “convincing” nature of my posts.

Originally Posted by Abercrombie

However, if I said, I do not not trust you it would mean that I do, correct?

Bah! Tricksy double negatives. (And yes, Eomer, I genuinely did not spot the double negative.)

Originally Posted by mormegil

I'm beginning to see a nice little collusion between Articstorm and Perky.

I agree. Arcticstorm is one of the few people who has had anything positive to say about Perky to-Day. I also find his musings rather confusing, as if they were designed to throw us off the trail. He is basically saying that, if X is a Wolf, then Y is innocent, but if X is innocent, then Z is a Wolf. Who better to know of the guilt and innocence of X, Y and Z than a Wolf, and what better way to point us in the wrong direction when one of them is killed or lynched than this kind of reasoning?

Originally Posted by Cailin

SpM, yesterday you said some things concerning Eomer and I’m slightly disappointed you did not repeat them today. I did see some sense in your accusations.

Well I still suspect Eomer, Cailin, but more recently I had been focussing on other strong suspects. It seems rather alarming to me that, in these circumstances, Eomer has chosen to come out with such a blistering attack on me to-Day and that he has seen fit to vote for me without awaiting a response.

Originally Posted by Eomer

No matter what I do or say SpM is picking on me. He sees a target in me and he's going for it …

My, you seem to be very oversensitive, Eomer. I really don’t think that outlining my suspicions of you (along with a number of others) and then focussing on others who have seemed more suspicious can be described as “picking on you” or “going for you”. Cailin noted that you had somewhat dropped off my list of top suspects.

Your case against me seems to be mostly based on the “Formendacil situation” yester-Day. In this regard, I fail to see what has changed from yeter-Day, when you seemed happy not to rise to the bait of my suspicions (except, of course, that you not rising to the bait formed part of my suspicions against you).

Originally Posted by Eomer

SpM glides past the Formendacil question. At least Eomer was honest enough to admit that he had changed his mind and that it looked suspicious. SpM actually skips over this, claiming that he saw all along what Formendacil was doing. Are you forgetting something SpM? You said that Formendacil was most suspicious. When did you change your mind, exactly?

I have not changed my mind about Formendacil at all. And I have not backtracked in the least. I said that Formendacil was “most” (meaning “very”) suspicious on the basis of my stated criteria. But I did not feel inclined to vote for him until I heard further from him. Since he was not around, there seemed little point in pressing the case against him any further at that stage. I did feel that his early random vote was possibly very risky behaviour for a Wolf, but I have most certainly not dismissed him from my suspicions. And I never claimed to have interpreted his vote as a tactic. I merely agreed that it had stirred up the pot (which it had).

Your blistering attack and quick vote, pretty much out of the blue, does give me great cause for concern, Eomer. But there is some sense, I suppose, in what you say about a Wolf being unlikely to take me on directly. All I can say is that, if you are not a Wolf, then you are barking up the wrong tree.

I would add that I still have my suspicions of Azaelia and wilwa. They seem to to me to be doing very little to help locate these Wolves. I would rather see contributions of the quality of Eomer’s accusations against me (even though he is wrong) than occasional contributions which tell us next to nothing.

[wilwarin538]

Hmm....so when I die, SpM, Wilwa, and Mormegil are no longer suspects?

Well that just made me positive that you are guilty. Because I consider that him admiting he is a wolf, since Morm, SpM and I are only cleared if he is a wolf, not just if he dies.

The way that was worded makes it sound like he is guilty so I'm going to vote now.

++Perky

[Boromir88]

Quiet ones die and loud ones die. Takes a werewolf to stay just enough under the radar. I think there's a talkative wolf out there, a standard wolf who posts every so often and mildly, and a quiet werewolf who is staying deep under the radar.~Perky Ent.

I agree with that, which makes either Perky, me, or Sauce, Eomer, or Abercrombie (atleast these are who I think the "louder" mouthed-villagers are) a wolf. I can say I'm a simple villager spewing my ideas, and for right now, despite Eomer's argument against Sauce, I'm not going to send him to the gallows yet
because...

I am merely setting these out for the benefit of the village. It is up to people whether they listen to me or not.~Sauce

Sounds often like the logic I use...have a brain! (No pun intended...well...of course there was).

Boro’s “condition” for trusting me seems to be a rather hard one to discharge. I get the feeling that I am being set up for a lynching in the event that any of my suspicions prove to be mistaken, which is almost inevitable in this game.~Sauce

Indeed I am, what lovely villagers we all are. Of course I do realize we all are bound to make a slip-up once or twice, you and I should both know that, I'm talking about consistantly making the wrong choices. Steering everyone in the wrong direction. Whether you're innocent or not, we can't have someone influencing the decision to lynch villagers instead of wolves, and if I see a trend of innocent's being lynched and not wolves, my immediate suspicioun goes to the loudmouth everyone seems to be listening to. It's the leaders fault!

Right now I see no reason to scream lynch Abercrombie! Lynch Eomer! So that leaves' Perky as our loud-mouth wolf.

As for a medium guy (to me this includes) Morm, Cailin, and arcticstorm.
I see no reason to say Morm and Cailin are wolves yet. arcticstorm I'm unsure about, and most likely will not vote for him but always watch him. I follow his reasoning and ideas, but I again find myself agreeing with Perky (who actually I suspect most right now...kind of ironic), in atleast I MYSELF can't write anyone off as an innocent, no matter how the voting has went. Atleast early on in the game. I wouldn't put it past wolves to try some sort of tricksy strategy.

For our quiet ones...Alcarillo, wilwarin, Azaelia, Formendacil and Marcolie (who's disappeared...I hope that's everyone). Wilwarin and Azaelia right now I'm ok with. Marcolie's, Alcarillo's, and Formendacil's disappearances get me worried. Right now more likely Alcarillo or Form.

[Alcarillo]

I'm here! And I say "Lynch somebody whose death would give us the most information". Even if that person turns out to be an innocent, we then know more about what other villagers are likely to be. According to this, we should lynch Perky, right?

And out of the group-that-voted-for-Gil-minus-Shelob he seems to be the most suspicious. It is true that I am part of that group, but lynching me solely on a single vote doesn't sound like a good idea. Perky has been suspicious since yesterDAY, and there are reasons for his lynching besides his voting.

Just my thoughts.

[The Perky Ent]

He is basically saying that, if X is a Wolf, then Y is innocent, but if X is innocent, then Z is a Wolf. Who better to know of the guilt and innocence of X, Y and Z than a Wolf, and what better way to point us in the wrong direction when one of them is killed or lynched than this kind of reasoning?

Um...actually I wasn't saying that. That's the logic other people are using to try and figure out the wolves. I'm not sure what to think of Wilwarin, although your vote doesn't really suprise me. I guess I'm currently looking at moremegil, Wilwarin, and Azaelia. My gut tells me I should look into them more, as I haven't really spent much on who they are.

I'm sorry y'all find me suspicious, as I'm just a lonely wonderer who travels around and smokes his pipe.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by The Perky Ent

Um...actually I wasn't saying that. That's the logic other people are using to try and figure out the wolves.

Actually according to how I understand it he was refering to Articstorm's logic.

Originally Posted by Alcarillo

I'm here! And I say "Lynch somebody whose death would give us the most information". Even if that person turns out to be an innocent, we then know more about what other villagers are likely to be. According to this, we should lynch Perky, right?

I agree in that today unless somebody better appears on the radar we ought to lynch the person who gives us the most information. I disagree that it would be Perky though. I would rather see Articstorm. If he's guilty I think we can assume the Perky is likely to be guilty too based on the colusion I noted earlier. If Perky is guilty then we can almost assume that Wilwa, SpM and I are innocent as well due to our first day voting of Perky. If Articstorm is innocent then I will be closely examined and I invite such examination of myself because I truly have nothing to hide. I am admitting that there is a chance that both Articstorm and I are innocent though I believe Articstorm is guilty.

My eyebrow has recently been raised to Márcolië Lamen but not sufficient to go after her today. But I will make it known that I will look more deeply at her in the future. I didn't yesterday because of Formendacil's random vote, it didn't seem just to go too strongly after her because of that.

[AbercrombieOfRohan]

On a side note, Abercrombie what are these 'driving lessons' you speak of? Will they help this struggling blacksmith in his trade? Is it some new craft that I could make and sell or witchcraft? I'm confused.

Chariot driving, Morm, it may come in useful someday, though at my young age, I can't really see a point right now...

Perky, it seems, is still high on many people’s suspect list – but I’m not sure about him. He seems too obvious to be a wolf.

I'm in the same boat Cailin, except instead of Perky, it's articstorm. I mean really, what wolf wouldn't vote on the first day? It is bound to cause mass suspicion and hysteria, and probably a bandwagon vote against the offending player (in this case, articstorm.) He also posts with very odd reasoning that's already been mentioned by Morm and Cailin and Boro, so won't repeat it. But, this reasoning seems more helpful (or at least, tries to be more helpful) to me than Perky Ent's.

But, on the other side of things (*shakes fist at John Stuart Mill*), if we lynch articstorm today, and he's innocent, it will point to Mormegil especially, though Cailin to a lesser extent as well. I think this will prove helpful in finding an alliance of wolves. Because, look at who Mormegil has aligned himself with, SPM, Wilwa, and somewhat to Cailin. Now, I highly doubt that both SPM and Wilwa are wolves, because it would practically be suicide for three wolves to vote for the same person on the first day (assuming Morm is a wolf.) But, I would warrant that at least one of the three is a wolf.

Oh poot, I'm back to being useless again. Now I'm stuck, because both of the above are hypothetical situations and I'm trying to provide factual evidence for which to help out the village. Well, if nothing else, this will prove how thoroughly confused I am...

crossposted with SPM and Wilwa.

[Márcolië Lamen]

Poor Shelob. Many a times I've sat with her laughing about books innabilities to number correctly. We must find the wolves and avenge these innocents slain.


Morm seems to be very strong against Perky but not enough to become a commoner on suspect lists. Trying to stay just active enough to hide the fangs? Also, the one most connected to Shelob yesterday and beleiving she was innocent.

Perky Ent coming up often on lists of suspects, voted for Gil and I feel most likely one wolf did so. Voiced how he was suspicious of many-possibly trying to stir the pot, possibly hiding, and Artic is strongly for his innocence though. I doubt both are wolves because that'd be too open. For me he looks suspicious but almost too suspicious because I doubt a wolf would be so open about it. Howeverm he does manage to talk alot without saying too much.

Formendacil voiced suspicions of two yet randomly voted for another, I'd still like reasoning on this. In general I'd like to hear more from Form before making any decisions.

Wilwarin not very loud, nor very quiet, changed vote from suspisions yesterday, however from reading style others are higher on list for me.

Saucepan Man- loud, is either leading our village against the wolves or pretending too. For now I give him the benefit of the doubt because he'd be too important too lose.

Eomer most noticably is his strong offense against SpM, and anything that strong of statement (especially only on one) is suspicious, but again, I'm forcing myself to say would a wolf be so outright.

Arcticstorm I can't really understand artic's explinations that he has for suspicions. Also, listing suspsions without explaining why. Suspicious to me.

Alcarillo voted for Gil and was against him the whole time. Not voiced much else. Another one I'd like to see talk agian before making a decision on.

Abercrombie repeating what others said alot. This I think is helpful, but also could be a way to hide. I'm holding nothing against her for the lack of vote, but would like to see more personal thoughts.

Marcolie I don't know how others view me, and since I know myself to be innocent I don't know what to say about myself.

Azaelia been quiet, voted for someone other than her suspicions pointed to. I'd like to hear more, but she's already suspicious in my mind, not as much as others though, but she's managed to talk little yet not nothing.

Boromir like some others has very useful breakdown summeries of votes. Someone active but not overly so. A good posistion for a wolf to be, but judging by posts not one with suspision now.

Cailin suspected many right away yet voted for another one. However, judging from her post today I can't help but find myself agreeing with her.


All suspisions are comparative since I am suspicious of someone for simply living on this island. That comes when wolves manage to invade.

[Márcolië Lamen]

Because of our gathering here, I feel it'd be better to double post to explain that I was out learning about training dogs to carry my books for me this morning and unable to attend our meeting for that reason. I wish I'd managed to be here earlier though.

In terms of lynching Perky to gain information, I really have to wonder if thats what the wolves were hoping we would do. He keeps coming up as too out there for me to be a wolf, and one that wolves would vote for but not connect themselves too because of this suspision. Then again, anyone could be trying to bluff.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Perky

Um...actually I wasn't saying that. That's the logic other people are using to try and figure out the wolves.

Um ... I never said that you were. I was referring to arcticstorm.

It seems to me that there are a lot of votes gathering for Perky, and I fully realise that I am one of those who has voiced suspicions of him. But I would remind everyone of the benefits of spreading our votes out, at least in the early stages of voting. Not to the extent that the voting becomes meaningless. But having 6 or 7 who are in danger throughout is helpful, as at least one of those 6 or 7 is likely to be a Wolf. And I like to make these Wolves sweat during voting.

My own suspicions are currently directed mainly towards Perky and arcticstorm, and Eomer less so. But I will need to review everything that has been said and do some major thinking before I cast my vote. Depending on what I come up with and how the voting goes, I may end up voting for someone else entirely.

[Cailín]

A lot to catch up on, while I'm actually in a terrible rush, so forgive me for skipping a few points.

In terms of lynching Perky to gain information, I really have to wonder if thats what the wolves were hoping we would do.

This is what Marcolie said, but others before have said that lynching Perky will give us the most information. Pray, tell me, what do we know if Perky is found innocent? Only that we were all very wrong on Day 1. Should Perky prove to be indeed a wolf, I think the other wolves already gave up on him last night when he was second to be lynched. There's no one really sticking up for him now (except this might be seen as sticking up for) so I'm not really sure what this would tell us. I'm not saying lynching Perky is the worst idea - for all I know, he could be a wolf - but there is no concrete evidence against him, except that he talks a lot of nonsense since the start of Day 1.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I agree with that, which makes either Perky, me, or Sauce, Eomer, or Abercrombie (atleast these are who I think the "louder" mouthed-villagers are) a wolf.

I'm not sure if we can divide the wolves into categories... maybe there's three quiet wolves, maybe three loud ones... Anyone could be a wolf and practically everyone is behaving like they've always been behaving. I'm pretty sure there's at least one wolf in the people you mention here, though.

Originally Posted by SpM

Well I still suspect Eomer, Cailin, but more recently I had been focussing on other strong suspects. It seems rather alarming to me that, in these circumstances, Eomer has chosen to come out with such a blistering attack on me to-Day and that he has seen fit to vote for me without awaiting a response.

Eomer's accusations seemed far too fierce to me and I'm not sure what he's trying to achieve here. I thought about it for some time and I could only come up with one thing. There's no way he would have made himself any less suspicious by saying nothing to my accusations and there's no way he could have deflected them otherwise. And he very well knows that.

He states he would never pick a fight with SpM if he's a wolf. Ridiculous. He would never have attacked SpM were he an innocent. He cannot know whether SpM is a wolf or not (except if he's the Seer of course, which I doubt) and an innocent would never attack another helpful villager so outright if he knew he had to pay for his possible mistake the next day - it's too dangerous to the village to lose two innocents in a row. It is the move of someone desperate - and who would be desperate because of a minor accusation on Day 2 when we're already almost certain who's going to the gallows today?

If SpM is lynched and proven innocent, Eomer dies tomorrow. He knew this when he voted. And yet he did. Is he really thát convinced of SpM's guilt to risk the whole village? Or is he a wolf trying to take two players instead of one down with him?

Make your choice, my beloved fellow villagers. Even though I think neither one of them will be hanged today.

[The Saucepan Man]

Another quick thought on Eomer.

Generally, it seems to me to be a good Wolfish strategy to hang around 'til near the end of voting in case a vote is needed to save a fellow Wolf or condemn a dangerous innocent. But it makes sense in this game to vote first, given the strategic value of a first vote in the event of a tie. I had thought Eomer's early vote to be too bold and risky a move for a Werewolf. But, if the voting is tight (as I hope and expect it will be) and I receive another vote or two, he has managed to put me in quite a dangerous position.

This, taken together with Cailin's thoughts, makes it quite possible that Eomer has given himself the role of sacrificial Wolf and is looking to take as many innocent villagers as possible out with him.

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

Originally Posted by Márcolië Lamen

Azaelia been quiet, voted for someone other than her suspicions pointed to. I'd like to hear more, but she's already suspicious in my mind, not as much as others though, but she's managed to talk little yet not nothing.

I knew I should have clarified. I did not say I was suspicious of Sauce at that time, just that I didn't like his list.

Besides, on the first DAY there wasn't much to go on for suspicions.

And I'm still looking for an explanation from Arcticstorm on why he suspects me. He never clarified.

And Perky, what am I doing to give you a "gut feeling" that I am worthy of suspicion?

If you don't explain your suspicions, there is no way for me to defend myself.