Welcome to Tol-in-Gauroth XI 'Fall of the Fall'

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by The Perky Ent

Yes, we have been rather chummy, haven't we? I guess I just talk too much. If I seem to be blabbing to much about this and that, it's only for the destruction of the werewolves. I'm just trying to group thoughts to try and see patterns in the way people are acting.

As am I. Interesting behavior has been noted.

[Formendacil]

Well, I do not wish to condemn people out of hand, but I have a vote to make, I believe, and it would be most tardy of me not to do so.

They say "let he who is without sin, cast the first stone", and while I am certainly not a saint, I am not a werewolf, and can only hope that my word will be taken as truth on that point, and so I must cast the first stone...

I do this reluctantly, and with great hope that I do not arrogantly condemn an innocent lamb among us, but I have a burden which cannot be set aside, (see here).

However, although I continue to have my suspicions about Saucie and Perky, I will cast my stone in another direction, fulfilling my civic duty and thus setting an example to the good citizens.

For reasons that really don't exist, I randomly accuse:

++Márcolië Lamen

[Cailín]

Ai ai ai ai!

Sorry, my dears, I have not rushed to the cause earlier, but you all know my shows (for whom, I wonder, stuck here on a nearly forsaken island?) finish so late, I've never been an early riser. Mia poor Holby! So kind, so peaceful and now she's lying in an early grave. Oh, such a harsh world we live in.

Now, we have not much to go on today, except that we are probably dealing with either very silly wolves or wolves that are able to build boats. If they cannot, they will be stuck on this island forever and eventually starve to death, when all of us (alas, alas) are long gone. That does not help much, cause I have no idea who is able to build boats or who is lacking in the brain area.

So who to look at? We already have an early vote - but explicitly stated for no reasons. I agree with what Saucy says here:

I don't trust those who do not speak much.

I don't trust those who do not vote.

I don't trust those who make accusations without backing them up with good reasons.

and

I don't trust those who change their minds frequently or without reason.

But something tells me we should also listen to dear Perky; for just because people are smart, vocal and logical, this does not mean they are innocent - no! - I shall be observing them very closely as well.

I personally think that - if we are dealing with slightly intelligent wolves - they will try to discover a pattern in what we innocent villagers are saying. As soon as they find out a pattern and we become (*gasp*) predictable, they will have a far easier time to delude us and guide us to our bloody and painful deaths. And who is more predictable than the one who reasons clearly and comes to logical conclusions?

I suggest, Mr. Saucepan, that you slightly revise the statements above, which I'm sure were well-intended, and never rule out those people you think make sense. For the only ones who can make sense of this situation... are the ones who started it.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Perks

This is just arms mind you, and I have no doubt the wolves could use their bear (get it? bear! ) claws to knock it down.

Precisely. The fact that morm and I have weapons is neither here nor there.

Originally Posted by Formendacil

Clearly, my friends, there must be some connections between these werewolves hidden in our midst.

Quite so. But they’d be crazy to make it too obvious early on, before having had any any opportunity to assess the “lie of the land”.

Originally Posted by Formendacil

And who have we seen being chummy so far more than The Saucepan Man and Perky... Indeed, they have been not only chummy, but also rather flippant about the whole affair, going on about smokes and pipeweed, which is really a most disgusting habit, and dangerous to one' health, to boot. Collusion? Perhaps...

Well, I can assure you that there was no intent to collude on my part. Perky was one of the few people around at the time and I wanted to get the discussion going, as it is only through talking that we will have any hope of catching these fiends. If we are going to start accusing people simply for talking and sharing ideas, then we might as well all slit our throats now.

As for being flippant about Holby’s death, well I am far more concerned with preventing further innocent deaths than with mourning someone who is now beyond our help. Anyone who spends more time mourning than in trying to find the Wolves looks suspicious in my eyes.

*Glares at wilwa and Azaelia*

As for pipeweed, well it helps clear my head.

Originally Posted by Cailin

I suggest, Mr. Saucepan, that you slightly revise the statements above, which I'm sure were well-intended, and never rule out those people you think make sense. For the only ones who can make sense of this situation... are the ones who started it.

Quite so. As I said earlier to Perky:

Originally Posted by me

But you are right. At this stage, no one is above suspicion.

I am not ruling anyone out. But I am not going to start accusing those who seem to me to be talking sense solely because they are being vocal, without any other evidence against them.

Right now, we have little in the way of evidence and in the absence of anything solid, I am most inclined to vote for those who are being least helpful.

Of course, going by my own criteria, Formendacil is looking the most suspicious at present. He outlines suspicions against two Villagers which are tenuous at best (and I would say as much even if I was not one of those that he suspects), and then votes for someone completely different without any shred of an explanation. Yet I am somewhat disinclined to vote for him solely on the basis of that alone when he is not present to explain himself further. He had to vote early and any vote that early on is going to be more or less randomly picked.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I see that The Saucepan Man has just made the point that I was beginning to formulate. Azaelia and wilwa's 'nothing' posts are precisely what I'd expect from: a) Bumbling newbies, or b) Insincere wolves. Now, word on the street is that the two of them have had previous experience in fighting wolves (at least that's what Ol' Bluetooth down in the woods told me – you may not have seen him but he's a decent fellow; I play cards with him at times).

Strange contributions from the two.

Formendacil's behaviour is also worrying. He casts suspicion on two villagers and then votes for another, completely at random. I don't like random voting.

[AbercrombieOfRohan]

And who have we seen being chummy so far more than The Saucepan Man and Perky... Indeed, they have been not only chummy, but also rather flippant about the whole affair, going on about smokes and pipeweed, which is really a most disgusting habit, and dangerous to one' health, to boot. Collusion? Perhaps...

So, Formendacil, you claim suspicion of Saucepan and Perky, and yet you voted for Marcolie...Why not vote for those you already have suspicion of? Not, trying to bandwagon, just trying to get answers from what is unclear (to me at least.)

To Perky, I didn't wish to make comments against the birds! Actually, I hadn't even made that connection...

[Shelob]

Sorry to come somewhat late, couldn't be helped.

First off I'm not so sure if we can form a list of criteria and say "wolves will match this pattern", some wolves will but as soon as we define the list the smart one's will be sure not to. However to the point that the list says "Everyone is suspicious" it works, regardless.


Secondly, in regard to the list, "good reasons". Good reasons, indeed reasons of any kind, are somewhat hard to come by on the first day...right now I'm rereading and rereading looking for (probably) non-existant clues. After today though we'll have more to go on and so "good reasons" shall (hopefully) become more common.

For myself though, I can't come up with anything concrete. I'm reading posts and getting feelings, suspicions, about people just from the tone of their posts. For where that leads me now I would suspect everyone. From such a wide and varied list though I would pinpoint The Perky Ent, Mormegil, and Gil-Galad as being currently above the rest.

Mormegil I have little reason to suspect, but his intitial and almost over-reaction to the fate of Holby's birds has a strange feel to it. For Perky it is that he has said a lot and yet said a rather small amount. Not to say he's being unhelpful, some of what he says holds merit, some of it though seems to be naught but idle chatter.

For Gil-Galad, like Wilwarin and Azaelia he has posted little and all of it unhelpful...

and now I must escape...or be all but literally lynched (ah parents, the horror, the horror)...

[Márcolië Lamen]

Originally Posted by AbercrombieOfRohan

So, Formendacil, you claim suspicion of Saucepan and Perky, and yet you voted for Marcolie...Why not vote for those you already have suspicion of? Not, trying to bandwagon, just trying to get answers from what is unclear (to me at least.)

I was wondering this too, not relation to the fact that the vote was for me. I really don't see the point of random votes if you have some supisions if you don't mention any reason why not to.

Then again, keping around those strongest players has reason, though it has killed many a village. If we choose this hopefully we don't doom ourselves like I heard they have from visiters before.

Originally Posted by Shelob

First off I'm not so sure if we can form a list of criteria and say "wolves will match this pattern" ...

I feel we could make a stronger statement and say if we made such a statement the wolves would try to avoid it stronger.

Most important now in the beginning is getting all involved so we have information to go on. If there are those who aren't participating its easier for the wolves to hide like this. Simarilly spreading out votes and avoiding bandwagoning now at the beginning at least.

There's not much information at all now, and it is very important to look at what we can, but I know that I am not the person best at first day lists and such. I will try though once I finish editing Chapter 3 of this new book.