Werewolf IX: the Saga Owns You and You Know It

[Shelob]

Firstly,

Originally Posted by Cailín

You may want to trust them, because they appear to make sense while you have no idea what's going on. But reasoning seems to be the best mask to hide behind during these perilous days and nights.

Cailín seems to warn us off trusting those who "appear to make sense" because that's a good mask for the wolves to hide behind. Yet today more than any other day Cailín speaks. The past few days she's spoken but as the game has progressed she has seemingly become more and more outspoken, a fact which is strange only because the ammount she speaks seems to be inversely related to the number of 'loud people' remaining.

This boarders on being a direct accusation of Cailín, but think about it. Slowly as the 'loud people' we're all used to listening to and arguing/agreeing with are killed off Cailín slips herself nicely into their old places. Finally when they're all gone she warns us off trusting people who seem to make sense because it's likely they're wolves hiding behind usefull, sensical suggestions while at the same time making sense and useful, sensical suggestions.

And you all trust her.

Only Gil-Galad has suggested that Cailín is suspicious and that was because she said she was "innocent and tried to bring a focus on Folwren", something which (given Folwren's vote for Azaelia yesterday) is not particularly suspicious. True a wolf would likely try to sway us towards a suspicious looking villager, but so would any villager who found that person significantly suspicious looking.


To address Menel (for reasons other than Kath's stated), I still think he's a wolf. Yes, you could argue that if he is a wolf he's behaving in an amazingly risky fashon, and that because he's behaving thusly he's not a werewolf. But I think you're wrong. Never yet has there been enough suspicion on Menel for him to be seriously facing a lynching, if he's a wolf he must have realized this. The next step would be to assume that if you're not really in danger voting as if you were in danger (ie: to save your own skin) would guarantee that the next DAY you did draw a dangerous amount of attention. Villagers though would, in their clear consciousness, not see the need for voting so that their vote didn't look suspicious. For a villager the point is to vote so as to lynch those most likely to be wolves, not to vote so that their voting record looks innocent.


As it is I find both of them to be very suspicious right now. As to whom else could be a wolf, I'm not sure. I have a strong inclination to think that we should be fearing those quiet people like Wayne and Gil who have basically sat back and allowed the villagers to do the wolves work for them, somehow I just feel that only the quiet benefit from killing off the loud--and allowing the remaining talkers to lynch themselves.