Werewolf IX: the Saga Owns You and You Know It

[Cailín]

Here goes:

So, now we know a lot more people to be innocent, I think we should go back to the voting on day one. Just to make things less complicated I will consider Glirdan a known innocent on our side as well, since he would not really gain anything by voting for people he thought not to be wolves and has just as much knowledge about wolf-identities as the rest of us.

Alcarillo-3 (TGWBS, Wayne, Sauce)
Bergil-5 (Alcarillo, Wilwa, Holbytlass, Glirdan, Azaelia)
Meneltarmacil-1 (Kath)
Kitanna-1 (Gil)
Glirdan-2(Cailin, Kitanna)
Kath-2(Menel, Mormegil)

Not much to go on here. Most of our known innocents voted for other known innocents. Wilwa and Holbytlass went with Bergil but no real conclusions can be drawn from that. But the Kath against Menel thing started this day and I think that's interesting to have a closer look at.

Originally Posted by Menel

Kath, both you and Shelob seem to want me to explain myself. May I ask why you suspect me?

Originally Posted by Kath

My accusation of you at the beginning was completely random and based on nothing more than me looking at the list of names and choosing the three that jumped out at me. However, once I had picked you I realised that there were quite a few others that felt the same. It seemed odd that a lot of people would have the same suspicion and so I looked to you to explain or defend yourself ...

Originally Posted by Morm

I guess I will hold that I find Menel suspicious, if for no other reason than a gut feeling. Sometimes you just have to trust your own instincts. Why trusting those has kept me alive so far.

You can see that the accusations concerning Menel are based on no more than gut feelings and light-hearted reactions getting out of hand. So I must insist not to accuse Menel today just because he has been on the radar for a long time. The accusations that all started it are meaningless. It makes Kath look slightly suspicious. She is not the Seer and has been on Menel's case from the beginning. Really strange. That’s not saying we should not accuse Menel, but not for these reasons.

---

Night 2 follows and we lose our Hunter & Cobbler, plus TGWBS takes another ordinary villager down with him. Note that looking back, this is our first clue to the werebear's identity. Glirdan was accused by Kitanna the day before and since he was only aware of his own innocence, I think both me and Kitanna were on his to-slay list this night.

Gil immediately jumps on Azaelia's case here. Werewolf behavior? Rather rash, then, but somehow I think Gil would always be rather rash.

Originally Posted by Saucy

That certainly seems to be the case today. Although some seem to be picking on only some of the villagers who voted for Bergil.

*Glares at Gil-Galad and WaynetheGoblin*

Why didn't you include Glirdan in your list, Gil. And why did you only mention wilwarin and Alcarillo, Wayne?

This would now suggest a Holbytlass - Wayne pairing. Could be a possibility and surely would explain Wayne's silence for Holby would have warned him to shut up after his multiple strange comments, as I’ll get back to later.

Originally Posted by Saucy

Holbytlas voted for Bergil to put him ahead of Alcarillo and Kath on the votes. Much the same applies as with wilwarin, with the added possibility that, if Kath is a Wolf, Holbytlas might have been voting to save her.

Holbytlass, Kath, Wayne trio, anyone?

Originally Posted by phantom

If Alca is innocent, then the only way a vote for Bergil looks suspicious is if Kath is a werewolf. It was right after Kath received her second vote (tying her for the lead) that Bergil took the lead.

We now know only Holbytlass might be suspicious because of that and she said she was planning to vote Bergil from the beginning. The lynching of Alca this day was not very helpful after all.

Originally Posted by Shelob

If I were to judge from the timing Holbytlass or Wilwarin would be the least suspicious as they both un-tied the Bergil count. Wolves (and even the bear) would probably have liked having a tie on the first day, so long as their names weren't on the tied list.

True, true. Very interesting. However, Wilwa voted too soon to be going for a tie and Holbytlass might be trying to save Kath. Anyway, Shelob defending Holby and Wilwa here is sort of suspicious since especially Holby does not look good after this voting session. So here we have minor evidence of a Shelob - Holby - Wilwa connection. Also, we now know that of the people who voted Bergil on day one, Holby and Wilwa are the only ones who could still be suspicious.

Originally Posted by SpM

For the record, I also regard the following as suspicious (as I did yesterday):

Meneltarmacil
Kath
Shelob

If TGWBS's death was an attempt to set up Alcarillo, then it is worth looking at those who have been gunning for Alcarillo to-Day. I would say that this applies to the following:

Gil-Galad
Azaelia
Folwren and
Glirdan.

Even though he is no longer here to help us, SpM gives two very interesting lists on Day 2. The first being interesting because at this point there was still no pressing to lynch Alcarillo at all. At this point his (and other people's) main suspects were ones we still can regard as possibly suspicious.

The second list is interesting because this might be exactly what the wolves were rejoicing at. Alcarillo's set up was maybe transparent, but not this! They knew that if Alca was killed today, a lot of innocents would be targeted next. Just because of this, though it may seem as a contradiction, I think Folwren and Gil might be just as innocent as the other two (Glirdan being not exactly innocent, but he was in the eyes of the wolves).

Originally Posted by Wayne

If you go back to post 107 saucey said I only put 2 people on my sucpect list.That is because thats all I suspected then. Now I suspect the same as saucey.

This is strange! Right after the Saucepan Man gives his new list consisting of Gil etc. Wayne changes his mind, without stating why. If Wayne is a wolf, now we know Wilwa, Gil and Folwren are innocent.

Originally Posted by Folwren

Looky here, man, if it turns out that they are not in league with one another, and they are both innocent villagers, or, better yet, one or both of them is gifted, you've just possibly given ground for people to suspect you.

Remember when Morm brought up the idea the phantom & SpM working together? This aggressive speech now speaks a little for Folwren's innocence. Surely a wolf would have sat quietly and enjoyed the growing suspicion among innocents?

Originally Posted by Kath

Yes I accused him (Menel) but I have explained the reasons behind this before.

No, Kath. It now appears you haven't. You are taking an awful lot on gut feeling. Please explain.

Originally Posted by Kath

Not so. I don't want to be linked with mormegil because I suspect him. I'll happily be linked with various others that I believe to be innocent.

Though I seem to be making a case for Kath being a wolf here, I think this needs to be mentioned too. It's strange Kath would have enstranged herself from morm so much if she was a wolf and knew him to be innocent. On the other hand, he kept accusing her and she would have made herself look more suspicious if she had still aligned with him.

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So, we've reached the voting on day one. As SpM said, he wanted the wolves to get a bit of a work out. So, at the point of his vote:

Alcarillo - 3 (phantom, Cailin, Folwren)
Azaelia - 2 (Wilwa, Morm)
Wilwa - 1 (Holby)

And he votes Menel. Kath quickly follows. Then Gil votes, putting Alca clearly in the lead. Glirdan increases the distance between Alca and the others. So does Azaelia. Shelob stops the band wagon, voting Menel. Now instead of saving himself once and for all, Menel votes Azaelia. Risky – especially if he’s a wolf and knows Azaelia is innocent. Azaelia was already in no danger of being lynched, so he did not try for a double lynching of two innocents. Durelin casts a useless vote on Folwren and Alcarillo is lynched.

Now why Glirdan killed Morm the following night is still a mystery to me, but maybe he tried to throw off suspicion. The wolves decide the phantom is too dangerous and rob us of our Seer. Bad night. Very, bad night. Let's look at the day.

Originally Posted by Menel

But I do think at least one of them probably voted for Alcarillo yesterDay, possibly Folwren or Gil-Galad.

This would be very tactical indeed if Menel was a wolf. He does not accuse our proven innocents, but instead the ones we still have doubts about, making a connection between him and them unlikely.

Shelob makes an interesting post then.

Originally Posted by Shelob

My guess would be that either the phantom was hitting to close to home for the werewolves to feel comfortable, or that they were just trying to get rid of someone who was, to them, a nuisance and, to the rest of the village, a help.

The silly thing is, the phantom was extremely far from home at this point. Almost the only ones he found suspicious, we now know were innocent - most prominent among them Azaelia and Glirdan. Also Shelob is accusing Glirdan in this post... This could be a very subtle nudge in the direction of the doublelynching of Azaelia and Glirdan.

The discussions that day are so confusing and would take me too much time, so that I will go straight to the voting:

Nilp: Glirdan
Wilwa: Glirdan
Glirdan: Gil
Kath: Menel
Cailin: Glirdan
SpM: Azaelia
Shelob: Menel
Menel: Shelob
Durelin: Azaelia
Holby: Azaelia
Gil: SpM
Azaelia: Glirdan
Folwren: Azaelia

So both Shelob and Kath are voting for Menel here, making it likely and believable they should do so again today. It is rather reckless for two wolves to be aligning with each other like that, but not impossible.
Menel himself votes Shelob, thus doing everything not to save himself. He is one suicidal wolf if he is one, but maybe he just knew Kath and Shelob would not get support from others.
Durelin and Holby both vote for Azaelia, Holby even stating she wants to give the wolves a work out. A work out or a doublelynching of two innocents (since she likely cross posted with Durelin).
Gil casts a rather strange vote on SpM here. Again - are the wolves trying to set him up by killing SpM tonight, or is it a double bluff, or totally unrelated. My guess would be the third option.
Folwren finally decides a double lynching is in order. Suspicious? Yes. Evidence? No. As SpM said, he'd have done so himself.

--

Today:

Originally Posted by Menel

Folwren: Tough call, but your vote did cause the innocent to die along with the Bear. I'm not as suspicious of you as I am of others, though.

In the eyes of the wolf, both were innocent. We are just lucky.

OK. My entire thought process is up here. I am sure you are all bored out of your minds right now. For the ones who don’t want to read all ramblings – here’s a simple list of the ones who I suspect the most.

Kath
Shelob
Holby
Wayne

I have doubts about Gil, Wilwa and Menel. The others are not really high on my suspect list right now.

I am aware I have included none of my own quotes in the above essay-like post. I must admit there’s also some evidence pointing towards me right now. All I can say I’ve been trying my best to help this village since the beginning and certainly am now, since I feel it will soon all be over – for the better or the worse.