Werewolf IX: the Saga Owns You and You Know It

[the phantom]

It seems that Alcarillo is positioned to be the primary lynch candidate today. I'm not surprised. If Alca is a wolf, he probably figured killing tgwbs would make everyone think he was being set up, thus making him appear to be innocent. Also, since tgwbs voted for him, it is possible that the wolves were afraid he was the seer and had spotted Alcarillo and wanted tgwbs dead before he caused any more trouble.

Now, I am only stating theories. I am not accusing Alcarillo. There are plenty of people doing that already, and I am not about to pile on and start a runaway bandwagon vote. Such votes often yield no real information, especially if the target (Alca, in this case) turns out to be innocent, which he may very well be.

But, for the sake of learning something, let us apply the voting order to this situation. If Alca is lynched today and found to be a wolf, it is very unlikely that Kath, Gil, Cailin, Menel, morm, Wayne, or SPM are wolves. Some of them voted for others when he was tied with the lead, and the others voted for him when the voting was undecided. Moves such as those are very risky for wolves this early in the game, when no concrete information is available.

Now, if Alcarillo is innocent, then what? We know that the top vote getter (Bergil) was innocent. If Alca is also innocent, why would a vote for Bergil be suspicious? If no wolves were on the chopping block, wolves could vote for whoever they pleased- or they could even abstain.

If Alca is innocent, then the only way a vote for Bergil looks suspicious is if Kath is a werewolf. It was right after Kath received her second vote (tying her for the lead) that Bergil took the lead.

Then again, I can't blame people for trying to avoid a multiple lynching on the first day (which would have happened if someone wouldn't have broken the three way tie).

Now, about the bear kill. It appears that the bear has either agreed to go after the wolves, or at the least he/she doesn't want to hinder us from catching the wolves. Note that the bear did not go after one of the people who have a lot of experience with this sort of thing (SPM, morm, or I, for example). It appears that the bear wants to keep people around who might be good at catching wolves. The bear does not fear that the village will go after him/her at this time, because we all know it is easier to go after the wolves since there are three of them and they work as a team.