Werewolf IX: the Saga Owns You and You Know It

[Meneltarmacil]

What a tragedy. Three people dead (though at least we're rid of the Cobbler). What is this town coming to?

I notice that Azaelia's vote did put Bergil in the majority when the deadline was close and both he and Glirdan were about to be lynched. She does seem a little wolfish to me, but I think her defense of herself makes sense as well and therefore I'm going to reserve judgement for now.

And as for Alcarillo, the wolves may just have been trying to frame him, or he may be a double-bluffing wolf. (However, I doubt the latter is the case)

Glirdan, though, seems to have changed his mind on a lot of things and several people voted for him yesterDay. I think he may be up to something.

[the phantom]

It seems that Alcarillo is positioned to be the primary lynch candidate today. I'm not surprised. If Alca is a wolf, he probably figured killing tgwbs would make everyone think he was being set up, thus making him appear to be innocent. Also, since tgwbs voted for him, it is possible that the wolves were afraid he was the seer and had spotted Alcarillo and wanted tgwbs dead before he caused any more trouble.

Now, I am only stating theories. I am not accusing Alcarillo. There are plenty of people doing that already, and I am not about to pile on and start a runaway bandwagon vote. Such votes often yield no real information, especially if the target (Alca, in this case) turns out to be innocent, which he may very well be.

But, for the sake of learning something, let us apply the voting order to this situation. If Alca is lynched today and found to be a wolf, it is very unlikely that Kath, Gil, Cailin, Menel, morm, Wayne, or SPM are wolves. Some of them voted for others when he was tied with the lead, and the others voted for him when the voting was undecided. Moves such as those are very risky for wolves this early in the game, when no concrete information is available.

Now, if Alcarillo is innocent, then what? We know that the top vote getter (Bergil) was innocent. If Alca is also innocent, why would a vote for Bergil be suspicious? If no wolves were on the chopping block, wolves could vote for whoever they pleased- or they could even abstain.

If Alca is innocent, then the only way a vote for Bergil looks suspicious is if Kath is a werewolf. It was right after Kath received her second vote (tying her for the lead) that Bergil took the lead.

Then again, I can't blame people for trying to avoid a multiple lynching on the first day (which would have happened if someone wouldn't have broken the three way tie).

Now, about the bear kill. It appears that the bear has either agreed to go after the wolves, or at the least he/she doesn't want to hinder us from catching the wolves. Note that the bear did not go after one of the people who have a lot of experience with this sort of thing (SPM, morm, or I, for example). It appears that the bear wants to keep people around who might be good at catching wolves. The bear does not fear that the village will go after him/her at this time, because we all know it is easier to go after the wolves since there are three of them and they work as a team.

[Holbytlass]

Why didn't you vote, Phantom, Folwren and Samwise?

Nilp has his excuse because of stating he wouldn't be here.

[the phantom]

He invites the Seer to dream about him. Such a statement, it seems to me, actually makes it less likely that the Seer will dream of him.

I am not so sure. If someone told me to dream of them, I would suspect that perhaps they do not want to be dreamed of, and so I would likely dream of them. Surely you would admit that if you were the seer you would've dreamed about me? Am I right, Mr. Saucepan?

The Seer is unlikely to welcome being told what to do (that’s certainly the way I would feel)

Ha ha! Do I seem like the kind of person who would particularly care about hurting someone's feelings?

And if I did offend the seer, surely that made it much more likely that I would be dreamed about, right?

He also asks the Ranger to guard him. This seems to me to be rather selfish.

Yes.

If the phantom is merely an ordinary villager, as he claims, why should he be any more deserving of the Ranger’s services than the rest of us?

To be quite honest, I was truly hoping that the wolves would try and kill me last night, and that the Ranger would foil the attempt. I was willing to take a risk to help the village. So sue me.

Really, SP, I was hoping that we could, for once, work together without turning on each other. I think you are, perhaps, too scared of me to do such a thing. It's too bad, because you are not on my suspect list and even if you were I'd be willing to let you hang around longer than my other suspects in case you were innocent so that I could benefit from your (usually) good observations.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Folwren

But it doesn't make sense that the wolves should vote for Bergil...he said nothing, therefore he was no danger to anybody.

But that's precisely why he makes such a good candidate for lynching from the Wolves' point of view. He said nothing. He accused no one and defended no one. He was a blank sheet. His death tells us very little. What's more, he was (unfairly, in my view) attracting a lot of suspicion. If one of the Wolves already had a vote or two against him/her, then a vote from him would have been the obvious choice for those trying to save that Wolf.

I think that there is a reasonably good chance that at least one Wolf had a vote or two against his or her name yester-Day and that at least one Wolf voted for Bergil.

Originally Posted by the phantom

I'm not surprised. If Alca is a wolf, he probably figured killing tgwbs would make everyone think he was being set up, thus making him appear to be innocent.

It seems to me that a bluff like that would be an unnecessary risk for the Wolves on Night 2. Although, if Alcarillo is a Wolf and another Wolf voted for Bergil to save him, I suppose it might have been a risk worth taking.

Originally Posted by the phantom

Now, about the bear kill. It appears that the bear has either agreed to go after the wolves, or at the least he/she doesn't want to hinder us from catching the wolves.

I am not sure that we can really draw too many conclusions from the Bear kill. Kitanna did not do much to suggest that she was the Cobbler or to give the impression that she was a Wolf. It is quite possible that the Bear simply chose her randomly.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Holbytlass

Why didn't you vote, Phantom, Folwren and Samwise?

Er, Holby, Samwise is no longer with us ...

Originally Posted by the phantom

Surely you would admit that if you were the seer you would've dreamed about me? Am I right, Mr. Saucepan?

No. I don't like being ordered around.

And there were others that I suspected far more than you at that time (as it happens, there still are).

Originally Posted by the phantom

I was willing to take a risk to help the village. So sue me.

How nice of you to selflessly put yourself forward for the Ranger's protection.

Originally Posted by the phantom

Really, SP, I was hoping that we could, for once, work together without turning on each other.

Up until I re-read that post of yours, I was more than willing to give you the benefit of the doubt. Now I am not so sure. In any event, no one is above suspicion at this stage as far as I am concerned. You are not top of my list, but I will be watching you with a more wary eye now.

Originally Posted by the phantom

I think you are, perhaps, too scared of me to do such a thing.

No. I am not scared of you. But I do respect you. If you are innocent, I would like to see you stay around for as long as possible. But, if you are a fiend, then I would rather see you swinging from the gallows sooner rather than later. Which is why my eye is on you.

Edit: And you didn't explain why you chose not to vote yesterday.

[Shelob]

Well things don't look promising for Alcarillo, not only have we a kill that seems to point to him but he also falls on the "voted for Bergil" list...he's so suspicious it's almost too suspicious...

...which would almost work well for a wolf, since being "too suspicous" would suggest he's being framed...now if only I felt suspicous of him.

As it stands though I just can't see it. Firstly Alcarillo voted first for Bergil. True others would likely jump onto a Bergil bandwagon, but that means Alcarillo would have intentionally been placing himself high on everyone's lists. I find that to be risky behaviour for a wolf anytime, esp. this early in the game. Secondly this means the wolves would have intentionally killed someone guaranteed to bring suspicion pouring down on a wolf. Again, not the smartest of moves for them and very risky this early.


I agree that at least one person who voted for Bergil is probably a werewolf (for them that was probably too good a chance to pass up), I just don't think Alcarillo is the most likely. If I were to judge from the timing Holbytlass or Wilwarin would be the least suspicious as they both un-tied the Bergil count. Wolves (and even the bear) would probably have liked having a tie on the first day, so long as their names weren't on the tied list. Not to discount those two, least suspicous of the most suspicous would be the best place for a wolf if they were going to push an innocent to death.


Well there's to that...beyond that though I felt like I was watching Phantom vs. Saucepan Man tennis, from which I gathered that Saucepan Man is keeping an eye on Phantom and Phantom remains as annoyingly suspicous as before. You two have been so helpful that my head aches in appreciation.

'Til later.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by the phantom

You missed the point. The "risk" I was taking was making myself a target for the wolves.

If innocent, you were a target anyway. In those circumstances, I simply cannot see how "volunteering" for Ranger protection can be regarded as selfless.

Originally Posted by the phantom

That sort of goes without saying.

No. It is always worth reiterating. It is all to easy in this situation to magnify this or that piece of circumstantial evidence and get hung up on one person or a group of people, while those who do little to arouse suspicion are able to fly under the radar. I speak from experience. Just because I identify my main suspects at any given time, it does not mean that I am not constantly assessing the case against every other villager as our discussion develops. And I would counsel every innocent villager to adopt the same course.

Originally Posted by the phantom

One of them says something that should make you reconsider where you have placed them ...

Save that Alcarillo has lessened in my supicions from yester-Day, my list was in no particular order. It comprises those who voted for Bergil. I doubt that more than one of them, two tops, is a Wolf.

For the record, I also regard the following as suspicious (as I did yesterday):

Meneltarmacil
Kath
Shelob

Because they all seem to be maintaining a presence in the village square without giving too much away.

And of course, my dear phantom, I also suspect you for the reasons that I have stated.

Originally Posted by the phantom

Is that answer suitable? I hope so, because it is the truth.

No, not really. I am always wary of those who do not vote because it leaves no trail. A rather Wolfish trait, to my mind.

[the phantom]

my list was in no particular order

Then never mind my comment about having someone placed too high or too low. However, you are still missing something one of them said. I will say no more on that matter, though.

I am always wary of those who do not vote because it leaves no trail. A rather Wolfish trait, to my mind.

But not a phantomish trait.

When I play the part of the bad guy in the village, I am always sure to leave a clear trail or two- that leads to the wrong place, of course. Surely you and a few other experienced villagers know that from previous encounters with me in other villages.

beyond that though I felt like I was watching Phantom vs. Saucepan Man tennis

Ha ha!

Sorry 'bout that, Shelob. I'll try to stop fighting with him.

(but he started it!)

[the phantom]

It's been quiet for about three hours now. Please, if you have something to say go ahead and say it. I would like to have a few comments to read when I return.

I'll be back in about eight hours. Don't burn the village down while I am away.

[Cailín]

What a night! Both the Hunter & Cobbler dead, but still no clear trail that will lead us to the true werecreatures.

Alcarillo's position does not look good right now. I am not sure what to think - it looks like he has been set up. He would be just too obvious a wolf. If he's innocent, Azaelia must also be innocent - sure, she voted for Bergil, but she had to do something to prevent the doublelynching of two innocents on day 1.

At one point, Kath & Bergil & Alcarillo each had two votes, then Holbytlass came and broke the tie, thus saving Kath (and Alcarillo of course, but he has been saved more than once). The Kath - Holbytlass connection might just be accidentical, since Holbytlass was already planning to vote for Bergil. In hindsight not the best idea, but just as likely the act of a desperate villager as of a werewolf.

Cailin she's all over the board with her suspicions and accusations, is most suspicious of Menel based on "pointedly" by Folwren. Which I found to be nothing substantial than votes Glirdan.

Hmpf I just speak my mind and actually need to voice all my thoughts as to prevent from me totally confusing myself, as so many in this village already seem to be doing. Anyway, there was so much early suspicion of Menel for no clear reason that I thought there might be a subtle Seer's voice involved. I realize that is not very substantial, but there was not much else to go on.
I still distrust Glirdan, though, even though our Cobbler seemed to have thought him innocent (or just a safe vote). He's now very suspicious of Alcarillo, because of his vote for Bergil, even though he voted for him as well... If TGWBS's death was indeed a set up by the wolves, Glirdan is definitely going along with that. If Alcarillo is lynched today and found innocent, he is one we should be looking at.

[Meneltarmacil]

My prime suspect at this point would be Glirdan, due to his serious inconsistency in who he accuses, as if he's not sure who would look more suspicious and make him look more innocent. He may be a werebeast trying to blend in. I still think Kath ought to be watched for the same reasons I stated yesterDay.

[WaynetheGoblin]

If you go back to post 107 saucey said I only put 2 people on my sucpect list.That is because thats all I suspected then. Now I suspect the same as saucey.

[mormegil]

In regard to the Alcarillo plot I think Gil-Galad and Azaelia are both attempting to sway early opinion toward lynching him. Gil-Galad is notoriously quiet and yet at the start of day 2 he has 3 of the first 5 posts and who has the other 2? Azaelia. Both of whom bring up Alcarillo's name and place him at the top of their list. I believe Alcarillo to be most likely innocent.

As far as Glirdan is concerned I think he is just swayed by popular opinion. I think I may be going for Azaelia first but keeping an eye on Gil too. Of course I won't take my eye off anyone!

[the phantom]

If Alcarillo is lynched today and found innocent, he (Glirdan) is one we should be looking at.

I'm not so sure. If Alca turns out to be innocent, then that would mean both of the top two vote getters yesterday were innocent- which would mean that the wolves would not have felt the need to vote for Bergil and pad his lead over Alca because they wouldn't care which of the two bit the dust.

Interesting how Glirdan's name keeps popping up whenever I try to spot potentially suspicious behaviour. Only problem is he seems the type who is easily swayed towards whatever is the current theory. Which makes him the perfect target for Wolvish manipulation ...

I found a similar way of behaving in some of my own posts and his constant swaying might be more the whims of a terribly confused newbie as the suspicious behavior of a werecreature

As far as Glirdan is concerned I think he is just swayed by popular opinion.

I have the same doubts about Glirdan's guilt that are expressed by SPM, Cailin, and morm.

I'm wondering whether we should lynch Alcarillo simply because, whether he is innocent or gulity, his death will tell us more than the death of any other villager. I know it sounds harsh, but the chances are we will end up lynching an innocent to-Day anyway. The problem with that of course is that he may be gifted ...

My thoughts exactly. I figured it would come to this, which is why I didn't feel the need to join in the push against Alca. I assumed his lynching was, perhaps, inevitable given the nature of the voting yesterday. It hardly matters that tgwbs was killed by the wolves- that doesn't sway me towards Alca or away from him. To me, the best reason to lynch Alca would be to obtain information.

Of course, I'd much rather lynch someone I suspect, but my suspicions are so shallow at this point that I don't really have much of a better target to offer.

Shelob voted for me, so naturally I'd like to suspect her (though I know there's probably no true reason to).

Alca voted for a candidate he figured would get jumped on by others. This might be guilty behavior- however he is showing a lot of faith in his fellow villagers to finish the job. Would a wolf be so willing to leave things to chance? I wouldn't have myself.

Wilwa was the second to hop on the Bergil vote. Was she a wolf trying to put an innocent safely in the lead, or an innocent figuring we have to lynch someone, it might as well be Bergil?

Wayne stepped in and voted for Alca, putting him into a tie with Bergil. Was Wayne an innocent thinking I don't want to vote for Bergil- Alca seems like a better idea, or a wolf thinking I think I should tie up the lead between two innocents?

Holby put Bergil into the lead over Kath and Anca. Was she a wolf saving one of her fellow wolf's skin, or was she an innocent that didn't want to see a triple lynching and figured Bergil was as good as anyone?

Azaelia's last minute vote seems a bit odd. Why vote so late for someone who already appears to be on their way to the gallows? Was she an innocent who felt it her duty to vote, and so she, not knowing in the least who to vote for, simply tacked on her vote to the favorite of the day? Or was she a wolf and felt that her fellow wolf (Alca) was too close to the lead for comfort, and wanted to pad Bergil's total?

Any thoughts on the possibilities that I have offered?

[Kath]

Three deaths! But at least one was in our favour. Shame we had to lose the Hunter though.

This Holby-Kath theory seems a little tenuous to me (though of course I would disagree with it) because Holby had been voicing her suspicions of Bergil for quite a lot of the day as I recall.

My suspicions still lie with Menel and mormegil though it is difficult to find reasons to support this. Menel never truly answered any accusations thrown at him, even when my reasoning was explained. I would still like to hear from him. mormegil also, he voted for me pretty much out of the blue, very soon after Menel's vote. I realise that this has been said before but I've only just got back from tending to my poor trampled flowers and I need to catch up a bit.

Of course I also believe that anyone who voted for Bergil bears watching - that being Alcarillo, Wilwa. Holby and Azaelia, though they could just be advocates of the 'lynch the quiet ones' brigade. See, that is exactly what I was trying to avoid yesterday! Lynching someone just because they are quiet regardless of the fact that we had no reason to suspect Bergil since he had said nothing that could be in the slightest bit incriminating. So whoever it was that said I was being 'too fierce' yesterday, there is the reason why.

So, those on my suspect list are:
Menel
mormegil

I don't have any clear thoughts about the Bergil-voters, I don't really feel suspicious of any of them so I won't put them on the list as of yet.

Oh one thing though, it does seem like the bear has, whether on purpose or accidentally, begun to follow the phantom's plan! And yet somehow that doesn't allay my fears that he is simply a very clever were-creature.

[Cailín]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Shelob voted for me, so naturally I'd like to suspect her (though I know there's probably no true reason to).

Alca voted for a candidate he figured would get jumped on by others. This might be guilty behavior- however he is showing a lot of faith in his fellow villagers to finish the job. Would a wolf be so willing to leave things to chance? I wouldn't have myself.

While it's true it's not very wolfish to start leading an attack on an innocent, at the time that Alcarillo voted, it seemed like everyone was half-convinced to vote for Bergil. Maybe Alcarillo was a werewolf just giving that last little push to make Bergil the suspect of the day. Or maybe not.

Wilwa was the second to hop on the Bergil vote. Was she a wolf trying to put an innocent safely in the lead, or an innocent figuring we have to lynch someone, it might as well be Bergil?

It seems to me a little too obvious when two wolves start off by voting for an innocent.

Wayne stepped in and voted for Alca, putting him into a tie with Bergil. Was Wayne an innocent thinking I don't want to vote for Bergil- Alca seems like a better idea, or a wolf thinking I think I should tie up the lead between two innocents?

That seems far-fetched. Wayne was only fifth to vote, far too early to be thinking about strategy or try to enforce a double lynching. I think Wayne might have sympathized with Bergil, since they were both in danger of being lynched solely because of their silence.

Holby put Bergil into the lead over Kath and Anca. Was she a wolf saving one of her fellow wolf's skin, or was she an innocent that didn't want to see a triple lynching and figured Bergil was as good as anyone?

I really wouldn't know. Of course, Holby suspects me and since I know I'm innocent, that makes me slightly less inclined to believe her.

Azaelia's last minute vote seems a bit odd. Why vote so late for someone who already appears to be on their way to the gallows? Was she an innocent who felt it her duty to vote, and so she, not knowing in the least who to vote for, simply tacked on her vote to the favorite of the day? Or was she a wolf and felt that her fellow wolf (Alca) was too close to the lead for comfort, and wanted to pad Bergil's total?

At the time Azaelia voted, there was only one minute left till the end of Day 1. It seems very unlikely she felt uneasy because at that moment, Alca was not in danger of being lynched at all anymore. But she said she panicked, so she might just have wanted to be sure.

A lot of these questions would be answered by finding out one thing: is Alcarillo an innocent?

As for Kath - it's hard to believe she and Holby are in league together. Kath was fiercely against lynching Bergil, while Holby started the 'let's kill Bergil' campaign. But they might just be really sneaky.

[Cailín]

Cross posted with the phantom and Folwren

As to why the wolves decided to kill TGWBS: might have been just because he's a clever player and no one suspected him so far. Neither did he voice a lot of real suspicions (except for Alca), so it was a pretty safe kill, I guess.

[Folwren]

I've been questioned several times why I didn't vote yesterday. My answer is simple and totally unconnected with the game-

At three o'clock our time (four o'clock game time, I think), the entire family (that includes me) piled into the car and went to the river for swimming and dinner...didn't arrive back home until almost seven (therefore almost eight) and I could not cast my vote. I tried to before leaving, but Mom need help preparing dinner. You can question my honestly about all this, but why do so? If you ask me who I would have voted for, I'll answer without a blush - Alcarrilo. The nerve he had to ask for people's vote after one of his citizens died is possitively revolting in itself. He seemed heartless and careless that someone died.

Said by the Saucepan Man:
If TGWBS's death was an attempt to set up Alcarillo, then it is worth looking at those who have been gunning for Alcarillo to-Day. I would say that this applies to the following...

Aye, I've been pushing for him as suspectible (in fact, I've as good as said that I won't waver from my belief that he's guilty), but I've no design. TGWBS was killed last night by the wolves...why? I didn't read all of Day 1's talking because I have little time to do so, so I don't know what all he said. But TGWBS is smart and observant, and if the wolves are smart, too, they'll knock down all the intelligent people. I don't see why they would bother to kill TGWBS only to frame Alcarillo. That may have been one reason why it might have been done (if the thought even entered their heads), but I doubt it was the only one. Besides that, if Alcarillo is indeed guilty, TGWBS was one of the people (was he the first?) to vote for Alcarillo to be lynched and Alcarillo felt threatened because of it (he was very near becoming the rope's victim) why shouldn't he convince all his canine friends to help him overthrow a dangerous adversairy?

If Alcarillo ends up to be an innocent I shall be very much surprised and very much confused. I feel dumb to say that I find this all very difficult to follow and suspicions are hard to make...and for me, once they're made, hard to shake. If I had more time, which I don't, I would be doing better. As it is, time is short, and Math is calling.

-- Folwren

[the phantom]

TGWBS was killed last night by the wolves...why?

I think it is good to continue asking that question.

The biggest reason for the wolves to kill is to take out the seer. Yesterday, tgwbs defined Alca as his top suspect quite clearly. It made him look like he could possibly be the seer. And if he was the seer, his message was clear- Alca was bad.

Now, if Alca is indeed a wolf then it is quite easy to understand why tgwbs was killed- the wolves suspected him as the seer.

But... if Alca isn't a wolf- why was tgwbs killed? Was it a random choice? I doubt that the wolves were entirely random in their selection.

We shall see who they kill tonight. I have an idea of who I would kill if I was a wolf- I will see if the wolves do what I would do. If they don't, and instead kill someone entirely random (someone who has barely posted and hasn't said much in the way of suspicions), then we will have to rethink the way we are thinking about this particular group of beasts (and realize that catching the first one might be a bit tough).

If I was a wolf, I would not have killed Alca or tgwbs because the two of them were sure to be attacking each other in the future. Wolves want to keep people around who have their eyes on each other because they are sure to stir up suspicion against each other- and wolves love having suspicious people around. It makes it easier to hide.

So why kill tgwbs?

It either has to be that they thought he was the seer (which means that Alca is almost certainly guilty), or they wanted to set Alca up (which means that Alca is probably innocent, unless it was a double bluff), or that they wanted to kill randomly to avoid leaving a trail.

Any thoughts?

And yet somehow that doesn't allay my fears that he (phantom) is simply a very clever were-creature.

Clever? Yeah. Were-creature? Nope.

If I were a clever were-creature, at this point in the game my plans and manipulations would still be far too subtle and clever to spot- and you know it, m'dear.

[Folwren]

Observed by the Phantom:
It either has to be that they thought he was the seer (which means that Alca is almost certainly guilty), or they wanted to set Alca up (which means that Alca is probably innocent, unless it was a double bluff), or that they wanted to kill randomly to avoid leaving a trail.

Could you please explain to me why killing TGWBS would set up Alca?