Werewolf IIX - Tra la la lally, here down in the Saga, ha ha!

[SamwiseGamgee]

Well for the first time in this village's short history it appears I'm having some pretty stiff suspicions aimed at me. Interesting. It is in the very nature of bearishness ( ) that I can no longer defend myself with regular votes for wolves. Indeed, it now appears that this is being used against me. Ho-hum. So, what defense do I have to offer, besides the fact that I'm not actually the bear? There's at least one of you who knows that, possibly two.

I guess I could call upon post #242 as a defense, where I floated the idea of lynching articstorm in an attempt to remove options from the wolves. Of course, if I were the bear I'd probably want to do that anyway, though- so who knows?

At the moment I'm most suspicious of Nonnacedak and dancing spawn. My suspicions of lmp have been somewhat subdued, mainly because I reckon that he was probably the cobbler on closer inspection of the thread.

So, there you have it: my defence. Not much, but the truth is that owing to the nature of the bear there is little I can say. I'm not the bear, guys. Please believe this. Oh, and boromir88, I am also not a girl!

[SamwiseGamgee]

Just realised I didn't realise why I was suspicious of who I said I was. So, an explanation:

Nonnacedak: Seems at pains to point out his own innocence, a point I first noticed in post #138. Since then (Day 2) I've been keeping a close eye on him, but I've never really suspected him enough to vote for him...until now. No, I'm not going to vote now. However, I may well vote for him when the time comes.

Furthermore, Non, you've really not contributed enough. Now, I know people are levelling the same claim at me, and I know how I feel about the accusation and hence the reason I'm going to let you answer it. So, Non, impress me.

dancing spawn: Something just doesn't seem right, and seeing as I'm really leaning pretty hard towards lmp being the cobbler, it leaves me wondering if she isn't in fact our bear. I'm not as convinced of her bearishness (again! ), so I'm going to go off and think long and hard.

We live in dark times, friends.

[Boromir88]

Samwise, well you make a good argument for yourself, and bring up things that I missed. (Sorry about the girl mix-up, same to you Nonnacedak). Now you know why I don't attempt to make guesses on the "How do you imagine other BDers?" thread.

I'm not too worried about Nonnacedak. Though he has defended himself quite a bit, I just don't see himself as the bear type. I have this uneasy feeling if we lynch him that he's not the one we're looking for. However, that's probably how I'll feel about everyone when voting.

I really can't tell anything at this moment, I tried to go back to look through the 4 people who were killed by the bear (Alcarillo, Encataire, Wilwarin, and Lalaith) but to no avail, as these fellow villagers didn't seem to talk too much, or point at many people. That's why I think the bear is relatively the queit type that's hoped to sort of blend in with the majority.

Originally posted bySp Dancing awn: I agree that the bear might have voted with the majority once, twice or even three times, but four?

That very well could be true. Not saying I was on to any leads when I made that post, it was just an idea that I sort of conjured up.

[Meneltarmacil]

Welle, I may die soone, but I'll vote anywaye.

++SamwiseGamgee

It's as goode a guesse as any, plus I'm kind of out of ideas.

[Oddwen]

The sixth DAY since the start of these proceedings broke, and the Villagers awoke to a wonderful smell.

"Mmm," they said. "At least Zali...er, LMP doesn't let the recent tragedies get in the way of her...ah, his job."

They wandered to the bakery in hopes of getting free doughnuts, or pastry therof. The door was wide open.

"That's Zaaa-aa...LMP for you!" they said. "Never one to turn away customers!"

Greeting them as they entered was a huge display of jelly filled doughnuts.

"Yay!" they cried, "With sprinkles!" And with great aplomb and ado, they set about consuming the sugary treats.

But after a few bites, the chewing slowed down to a rate of about 2 CPM.

"What kind of jelly is this?" one asked.

"It's not strawberry," cried one.

"It's not raspberry," mumbled one.

"It's not cranberry," muttered one.

"Is it Goldberry?" wondered one.

"It's not gooseberry, or currant or apple or cherry," worried one.

"Is it LMPberry?" screamed one.

Such a spitting was never seen in a bakery before! Retching and yowling, the seven exited the bakery. Some lay on the snow and rolled about in agony, some stood shaking their fists to the wood, but all were extremely ticked off.

"Wait a second," said one. "Why wasn't he made into an LMP cobbler?"

They again entered the Place of Bakes, giving LMP's final resting place(s) a wide berth. But not a cobbler could they find.

Just a note reading:

"She wasn't the Cobbler!"

"Drat!" said they.

-----------------------------

Boromir88
Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant
Durelin
Gurthang
Meneltarmacil
SamwiseGamgee
The Saucepan Man

Dead:

Oddwen (Mod) - Skeletonized by Wolves on NIGHT 1
Mithalwen (Werewolf) - Cheesily lynched on DAY 1
Alcarillo (Villager) - Smashed to bits on NIGHT 2
Mormegil (Villager) - Blown away on NIGHT 2
CaptainofDespair (Ranger) - Innocent blood rejected by nature, received by men on DAY 2
Encaitare (Villager) - Thrown off a cliff by a Bear on NIGHT 3
Firefoot (Sherriff) - Killed by clowns on NIGHT 3
Gil-Galad (Werewolf) - Lynch'ed!! on DAY 3
Arcticstorm (Sherriff) - Touched by a ten foot pole on NIGHT 4
Wilwarin (Villager) - This fine specimen displayed on NIGHT 4
Laitaine (Werewolf) - Boo hoo hoo, Wolves are through. DAY 4
Lalaith (Villager) - Verily and forsooth, she was crushed on NIGHT 5
Nonnacedak (Villager) - Went to sleep with the fishes on DAY 5
littlemanpoet (Villager) - Baked into doughnuts, with sprinkles on NIGHT 6


Now beginneth DAY 6. Lynch whom you pleaseth.

[Meneltarmacil]

Alright, only seven of us left, with a Beare in our midste. Let's looke at ye voting from yesterDaye:

Voted for Nonnacedak (innocente): Gurthang, Saucepan Man, dancing spawn, SamwiseGamgee

Voted for SamwiseGamgee: Menel, Nonnacedak (innocente),

Voted for Ye Saucepan Man: Durelin, (EDIT: ) LMP (innocente)

Voted for LMP (innocente): Boromir88

It appeareth that after Nonnacedak and myselfe cast early votes for SamwiseGamgee, Gurthang came and started a Nonnacedak bandwagon, whiche I notice Ye Saucepan Man jumped on. I also notice that Saucy was eager for CaptainofDespair's innocente bloode earlier. Coulde he be ye Beare, trying to hide in ye open?

Boromir88 hath not my complete truste either. He goeth after an innocente who, even if he were ye Cobbler, woulde not be able to do us muche harme anyway now that ye Wolves are deade.

[Boromir88]

Boromir88 hath not my complete truste either. He goeth after an innocente who, even if he were ye Cobbler, woulde not be able to do us muche harme anyway now that ye Wolves are deade.

I call it a set up. If you notice that is the first time I did not vote with the majority. Why, I didn't vote in the majority you'll have to figure out.

I actually think a lot of people are being set up at this point. I've been pondering LMP's post, as to why Sauce hasn't been killed yet. And doing that, I've also pondered why I haven't been killed yet. But, let's look at who the bear has killed...

Night 1- Alcarillo
Night 2- Encaitare
Night 3- Wilwarin
Night 4- Lalaith
Night 5- LMP

As you can see a lot of these people have not left a trail as to who to go after. The bear is being extremely quiet, knowing if he/she kills one of the ones speaking out and talking suspects the village will look at our posts and figure out who it is. So, the bear is killing people that don't talk a lot, or don't give us much to go off of, making it extremely difficult. With that being said I must look at Gurthang, and be interested in what he has to say? As ever since Day 1 we've sort of took his character for granted and haven't asked much from him.

Edit: Since I haven't looked thorougly through LMP's post, perhaps we can find something from LMP's post, but I wouldn't count on it.

[The Saucepan Man]

Alas poor littlemanpoet, I liked his pies (until to-Day, that is. *Urk!*).

But why did the Bear kill him of all people? As he said on numerous occasions, he was a prime suspect - for Cobbler if not Bear. Perhaps the Bear thought that he was the Seer. That seems the most likely reason.

And it's a shame about Nonnacedak, for he served the Village well in rooting out the Wolves. I am sorry for my part in his death.

Oh well, as always, here's yester-Day's voting:

1. Menel for SamwiseGamgee (SamwiseGamgee - 1)
2. Nonnacedak for SamwiseGamgee (SamwiseGamgee – 2)
3. Durelin for SpM (SamwiseGamgee – 2; SpM – 1)
4. Boromir88 for LMP (SamwiseGamgee – 2; SpM – 1; LMP - 1)
5. Gurthang for Nonnacedak (SamwiseGamgee – 2; SpM – 1; LMP – 1; Nonnacedak - 1)
6. LMP for SpM (SamwiseGamgee – 2; SpM – 2; LMP – 1; Nonnacedak - 1)
7. SpM for Nonnacedak (SamwiseGamgee – 2; SpM – 2; LMP – 1; Nonnacedak - 2)
8. Dancing spawn for Nonnacedak (SamwiseGamgee – 2; SpM – 2; LMP – 1; Nonnacedak - 3)
9. SamwiseGamgee for Nonnacedak (SamwiseGamgee – 2; SpM – 2; LMP – 1; Nonnacedak - 4)

A few thoughts occur.

I doubt that those who voted for me are guilty of anything more than Cobblerishness. LMP, as we now know, was innocent (poor chap - that rant was genuine after all ) and Durelin I now suspect as the Cobbler.

Boromir88's vote is interesting. He voted for LMP at a time when LMP had not yet arrived in the Village Hex and seemed a dead cert (to me at least) for Cobbler. Might he be the Bear - trying to avoid suspicion by voting for someone he thought few others would vote for? Then LMP gets pureed. Could it be a set-up, or a bold double-bluff?

And SamwiseGamgee's vote is also worth noting. Unusually, he waited until the last minute to vote. Perhaps any Villager who looks in danger of being lynched would do the same thing. But it may have been the desparate attempt of a Bear doing his best to avoid the noose. He could, of course, have tied Nonnacedak and me for a double lynching, but that would have looked too suspicious.

That said, the Bear could still be any one of you. One thing's for certain. I am not the Bear. I hope that you all realise that and don't go wasting any votes on me today.

Of course, if the Seer dreamed of the Bear last Night, then we are in luck and the Village is saved. If not, then I trust the Seer's judgment to say no more than he or she feels able.

But beware, folks. We probably only have two more Days (three at most) to get this right.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

As you can see a lot of these people have not left a trail as to who to go after. The bear is being extremely quiet, knowing if he/she kills one of the ones speaking out and talking suspects the village will look at our posts and figure out who it is.

Actually, littlemanpoet was pretty outspoken.

In case it helps, I have reviewed the suspicions voiced by the Bear's victims concerning those of us who remain. This is my own interpretation of their posts, so please feel free to comment if you view it differently.

Alcarillo: Mildy accused Gurthang (Day 1)
Encaitare: No accusations against any of the survivors.
Wilwarin538: Mildly accused Durelin (Day 2)
Lalaith: Voted for Meneltarmacil (Day 1); Mildly accused Boromir88 (as the Bear), dancing spawn, Gurthang and Menel (Day 3).
Littlemanpoet: Voted for Gurthang (Day 1); mildly accused Boromir88 and voted for Durelin (Day 2); suspected Boromir88 and then cleared him, also suspected Durelin (Day 3); voted for dancing spawn and pointed to Meneltarmacil as a possible Bear (Day 4); accused and voted for SpM and then cleared him, maintained suspicion of Meneltarmacil (Day 5).

The name that sticks out for me is Meneltarmacil. He is the Villager that littlemanpoet suspected most after me (and he cleared me before the end). Now, it would be bold of Meneltarmacil to kill one of those accusing him. But perhaps, given all that we have said about it being unlikely that a Bear would do that, he felt that he could get away with it.

[littlemanpoet]

Q1 Why did LMP survive yet another night?

A1.1 The Beorning would be a fool to kill such a prime target of suspicion.
A1.2 LMP is the Beorning.

Q2 Is LMP the Beorning?

A2.1 Impossible, because LMP is an Ordinary Innocent.
A2.2 Impossible, because LMP is the Cobbler (see Q5 below)
A2.3 Impossible, becaue if LMP was the Beorning he would have killed The Saucepan Man on the first or second night, because as has been proven, he's too dangerous to the lycanthropes to be left alive. Which begs the next questions.....

Q3 Why didn't the werewolves kill SPM?

A3.1 They feared he was the Hunter, which is still a possibility (can the Hunter kill the Beorning?).
A3.2 They suspected that he might be the Beorning, in which case killing him would
(1) remove one of their own number (I believe it is a fact that a werewolf or Beorning attacking each other would end up in the death of both?);
(2) be counterproductive to their goal of getting rid of two innocent villagers per night for as long as possible.

Q4 Why didn't the Beorning kill SPM?

A4.1 Because the Beorning wants to lose.
A4.2 Because SPM is the Beorning.

Q5 Is LMP the Cobbler?

A5.1 To my understanding (waiting for more information from the Moddwen on this), the Cobbler has already lost, so s/he might as well reveal her/himself unless for spite s/he wants to see the Beorning win.
A5.2 No, because if I were the Cobbler, I would have realized that I've lost and would reveal myself and ask that you get rid of me, because that's how I play the game. I call upon the Cobbler to do this. Take that for what you will.

Q6 What if SPM is not the Beorning?

A6.1 Then the Beorning has been most unwise in allowing SPM to survive so long. Personally, I don't think anybody playing the game is that unwise; but I could be wrong.
A6.2 I notice that SPM has pulled back from LMP as his primary suspect, dismissing me as the Cobbler. This seems most convenient (and I admit I did my part in lending credence to this clever piece of strategy) after he so persuasively cast suspicion my way as the Beorning just two Days ago.
A6.3 SPM has assiduously been at work to discredit me since the beginning of this entire lycanthropic nightmare. Why would he do that if he were not seeking out likely innocents at whom he could conveniently cast suspicion?

I could be wrong. It could well be that Meneltarmacil is as guilty of Beorningness as he suddenly appeared to me (and apparently to SPM - how convenient-) yesterDay.

But then I find myself drawn back to the same original question that started this entire Q&A session:
How is it that SPM, not an object of much suspicion, has survived this long?

I rest my case.

[littlemanpoet]

Oh, one more Answer to the Question of "Is LMP the Cobbler?"

A: If LMP was the Cobbler, he wouldn't give a rip who the Beorning is. Since he is doing all he can to discover the Beorning, it should be clear that he is not the Cobbler.

[Nonnacedak]

Ok so I guess the reasons people think Im a Bear is because I havent posted enough and of who Ive voted for. Those seem like unsolid reasons to me.

SamewiseGamgee I guess being the only one voting for a wolf every night isnt contributing enough. I also believe I was one of the main reasons Laitaine was lynched. Anyways I will not impress you because I dont really care.

I did think SPM would have died by now as well. He is very helpful to have (well against the wolfs) but that could easily be why he has had basically no suspicion cast his way.

People keep saying that all I do is defend when that is really not true. Go read my posts. The first were I will admit but since then I have not really defended myself at all.

[Nonnacedak]

Well Im going to sleep so I guess I have to vote.

This is a tough call but Im going with:

++SamewiseGamgee

I was going to vote for Saucepan but I figured I would let him go for at least one more night.