Werewolf IIX - Tra la la lally, here down in the Saga, ha ha! - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

littlemanpoet · 08-19-2005, 06:24 AM

I'm writing this post during NIGHT phase in order to post as soon as I can on DAY 4 ...

1. I'll survive the Night.

So why am I predicting my own survival? No, I'm not a werebeast. Rather, the werebear won't kill me because I'm diverting suspicion from her. Yes, look for a female, I think; potentially Lalaith. Further, the werewolf will leave me alone because all your suspicions against me are diverting attention away from her too (yes, female again, is my guess, like Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant. Can't help thinking SPM is onto something there.

2. The Seer will be killed tonight, attacked by both werebear and werewolf, because that person has not bee subtle enough to escape their notice.

3. Arcticstorm will escape death for one more night because neither werebeast can afford to allow the Seer to stay alive for another night.

4. The Seer will have dreamed of me last night, because of so much suspicion directed my way. And therefore will have been apprised of my innocence. But fat lot of good that does me, with seer dead. If the Seer has, by some crazy chance survived the Night, please vouch for me before you die, because you know I'm innocent.

5. Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant and Nonnacedak will not have been killed, because I think the former is the Bear and the latter is the remaining Wolf. Spawn voted for me when the issue was well decided, to keep suspicion on me.

If, by some bizaare chance, our Hunter has led the werewolf and werebear to believe him to be the Seer, he will have pulled off a major strategy coup, and we are on our way to winning, against all odds. If this has been the case, congratulations on a game most excellently played.

I recommend a double lynching of Spawn & Nonnacedak; better to survive and face the wrath of Moddwen

++ Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant

Lalaith · 08-19-2005, 06:44 AM

Quote:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lalaith
It's not inconceivable that Lmp had the same suspicion as I did about arcticstorm and set about flushing him out on purpose with his accusations.

You give me far too much credit.

Au contraire, mon cher boulanger, I know you to be a most intelligent chap, and if I could work it out then so could you, easily.
You made a comment yesterday I found rather interesting:

Quote:

Or maybe he'll (Arcticstorm) survive because they figure the other evil party will go after him. Or they'll both take a stab at who they think the Seer might be instead

.

A fair point, perhaps. But could it also be interpreted as a message to your fellow-furry? The bear and the remaining wolf do not know each other's identities, they cannot communicate by PM. By this stage of the game they are enemies, the bear will be trying to kill the wolf. But one thing unites them, they would both want the Shirriff dead, but they would also want another kill in the night. They had to make sure they were both following the same plan.

Boromir88 · 08-19-2005, 06:46 AM

This will be my only post you'll see from me in a while. I'm going on a little trip, but should be back by 6 or so, so I'll be able to vote and weigh in and all the rest, just you won't see many posts from me until later.

lmp, I am more sure of your innocence today mo so then yesterday. I think you will have to do some explaining (for me atleast). I agree that the wolves would not stick together so closely especially on day 1. That would have to be the boldest move I would have seen played, it does give you no flexibility. The only thing is, the wolves could have set this plan up, but not intending one of their own to be caught on Day 1. So, that I think you'll need to explain to me, because I can not know your innocence, and it'll be you or if the Seer steps out that will have to convince me.

I know suspicions of me are arrising. I will say this before I go, if I was the bear I must be a really stupid bear to continually vote the same way people have claimed the bear would vote. Would you not think? Anyway, when I get back I'll explain more if needed.

As far as catching the bear. I think it's accurate to say the bear does not care who gets lynched as long as its not himself/herself. So, either the bear votes very early (Durelin) who has often done so, though this may be because of not wanting to get up. Or the bear votes typically late, hoping to get a double lynching. (When I look through the votes I'll give some insight).

I am less inclined to believe it's Durelin. She did defend Captain when he was being put up for werebearary. I don't think a bear would do that, if the bear does not care who gets lynched. In fact, if she was the bear, she would know Captain was not the bear, therefor probably would have voted for Captain, knowing she'd be killing an innocent.

Lalaith · 08-19-2005, 07:11 AM

Oh, and another point, I am quite baffled by Lmp's post above. First he says I'm the bear and dancing spawn is the wolf.
Then he says spawn is the bear and Nonnacedak is the wolf and suggests a double lynching of both of them (Nonnacedak was btw the first to vote for Gil the wolf two days running, so he's a pretty treacherous wolf if he is one...)

Nonnacedak · 08-19-2005, 07:32 AM

Well let me say first off I have yet to not vote for a wolf...... Mith, Gil, Gil. I would be willing to bet a day's worth of trout that LMP or Laitaine is the other wolf. The lonesome last wolf was trying to get suspision on me therefore voting for me just because I have been the bane of their existance.

I cant prove that Im not the bear or can I say that I think I have any Idea who it may be. If you must lynch me though so be it. At this point Im willing to take one for the village.

Gurthang · 08-19-2005, 07:54 AM

Well, I must say I am somewhat distrurbed by LMP. He seems sincere, but allow me to point something out:

Quote:

Originally posted by LMP
4. The Seer will have dreamed of me last night, because of so much suspicion directed my way. And therefore will have been apprised of my innocence. But fat lot of good that does me, with seer dead. If the Seer has, by some crazy chance survived the Night, please vouch for me before you die, because you know I'm innocent.

That sounds like a wolfish attempt to flush out the Seer. That wouldn't make much sense, considering the Seer wouldn't vouch for him because either he hasn't been dreamed of or he knows that LMP's a wolf. Unless LMP is the cobbler. Or he could be bluffing.

I'm going to read back over his posts and see what I can find.

Meneltarmacil · 08-19-2005, 08:14 AM

I don'te thinke we shoulde let Durelin out of our sights. On ye firste Daye, she voteth not for Mithalwen, but for Firefoot, who turneth out to be innocente. On ye seconde Daye, she bandwagoneth withe CaptainofDespair and attempteth to lynche Ye Saucepan Man, while yesterDaye, she saith:

Quote:

I think Gil-Galad is the Cobbler, and is too brash to be a wolf. Or he is simply the usual confused innocent villager

and insteade voteth for Boromir88. Notice a patterne? On bothe Days when a Wolfe is aboute to be lynched, she attacketh someone else. I thinke she is ye laste Wolfe, or ye Cobbler.

littlemanpoet · 08-19-2005, 08:54 AM

I've noticed that a few of you are immediately working with the hypothesis of "Say LMP is a werebeast; how do his words read?"

Seeing as I'm getting so much attention anyway: If you're thinking about voting to lynch me, I propose that you also try out the hypothesis of "Say LMP is actually an innocent Ord, fumbling around blindly just like the rest of us; how do his words read?"

Then compare your results. I haven't done the comparison because I already know what I am; I don't need to. But go ahead and do it, I request, and see what the results are. I'm not convinced I'll come out "smelling" any better, but I'd be interested to see what you come up with.

Okay, yes, I contradicted myself. My final paragraph and vote were tagged on very early this morning and I forgot to read what I'd written last night. Sorry. Consider my final paragraph to supercede the ones they contradict.

Lalaith, I still say you give me too much credit. I may have intelligence, but analysis is not my strength. I try to do my best, but as you have seen, I'm not that great at checking my facts - - - especially when I don't have the kind of time (or home computer) available that this situation requires.

Oh, and about the above proposal/request, ask yourself "why would LMP vote so early again...

1-if he was a werewolf?
2-if he was a werebear?
3-if he was an innocent Ord as he claims?

See what you come up with. Again, I'd be interested. Since I've already voted, I'm not sure how much I'll be back, but I promise to read every post at least once.

Durelin · 08-19-2005, 08:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Monkey Man

I don'te thinke we shoulde let Durelin out of our sights. On ye firste Daye, she voteth not for Mithalwen, but for Firefoot, who turneth out to be innocente. On ye seconde Daye, she bandwagoneth withe CaptainofDespair and attempteth to lynche Ye Saucepan Man, while yesterDaye, she saith:

Quote:

Originally Posted by Durelin

I think Gil-Galad is the Cobbler, and is too brash to be a wolf. Or he is simply the usual confused innocent villager

and insteade voteth for Boromir88. Notice a patterne? On bothe Days when a Wolfe is aboute to be lynched, she attacketh someone else. I thinke she is ye laste Wolfe, or ye Cobbler.

First of all, I knew Saucepan Man had you all against CoD, but I felt he was innocent, so I felt my best bet was to vote for who he considered to be guilty. I just did not want innocent blood on my hands.

And as for Gil...I'm sorry, but I think he played the role of the werewolf way too openly. I never would have expected a wolf to have done so. I suppose that might be why he risked it. But now we have two wolves down, and the victory of the village looks possible....though so does the victory of the bear.

LMP's plan is interesting. It might be our best bet. But we need to hear from Dancing Spawn, and it would be nice to hear some more from Nonnedack. I think it's more possible that Non is the bear, though it is also possible that he is a wolf, simply because there was little he could do to stop any lynchings of his fellow wolves. They were caught red-handed, being very wolfish.

I still am unsure about our Boromir. Unfortunately it seems he will be gone, and I'd much like to hear from him. Darn. Well, hopefully I shall have time to look over previous posts later (again).

I am also still not very trusting of Saucepan Man. I still think it's possible that he is a rather bold bear. Whatever he's been doing, it's been keeping him out of suspicion, either rightfully, or not.

And there should be no ruling out of anyone, I believe. We have one wolf and one bear left, and I think it's, in a way, easier for them to hide now.

EDIT: Cross-posted with LMP...maybe others....

**The Saucepan Man** · 08-19-2005, 08:58 AM

OK, folks, let’s not panic. While there’s no denying that arcticstorm’s death is a blow, it was not unexpected. And it was likely that another innocent would die too. I’m sorry that it was wilwarin, but it at least knocks another Villager off my suspect list. Take heart, fellow Villagers. Let’s look on the positives. We killed another Wolf last night, a fantastic result, and we still have our Seer and our Hunter.

Now, I have to date advocated keeping an eye out for the Bear, and I counsel no differently to-Day. But we have now happily arrived at a situation where killing either the Wolf or the Bear will put an end to the two kills per night. And, while a lone Wolf may be more difficult to spot, we do have much more to go on as far as the Wolf is concerned. In particular, the votes cast to date. I therefore believe that we should today concentrate on catching the last Wolf. The fact that we have now killed two Wolves makes the previous days’ votes even more helpful in this task.

So, here’s my traditional list of yester-Day’s votes:

1. Durelin for Boromir88 (Boromir 88 - 1)
2. Menel for Gil-Galad (Boromir 88 - 1; Gil-Galad - 1)
3. Boromir88 for Gil-Galad (Boromir 88 - 1; Gil-Galad - 2)
4. Nonnacedak for Gil-Galad (Boromir 88 - 1; Gil-Galad - 3)
5. Laitaine for Nonnacedak (Boromir 88 - 1; Gil-Galad - 3; Nonnacedak - 1)
6. Gurthang for Gil-Galad (Boromir 88 - 1; Gil-Galad - 4; Nonnacedak - 1)
7. Lalaith for Gil-Galad (Boromir 88 - 1; Gil-Galad - 5; Nonnacedak - 1)
8. Dancing spawn for LMP (Boromir 88 - 1; Gil-Galad - 5; Nonnacedak - 1; LMP - 1)
9. LMP for Nonnacedak (Boromir 88 - 1; Gil-Galad - 5; Nonnacedak - 2; LMP - 1)
10. SamwiseGamgee for Gil-Galad (Boromir 88 -1; Gil-Galad - 6; Nonnacedak - 2; LMP - 1)
11. Wilwarin538 for Nonnacedak (Boromir 88 -1; Gil-Galad - 6; Nonnacedak - 3; LMP - 1)
12. Arcticstorm for Durelin (Boromir 88 -1; Gil-Galad - 6; Nonnacedak - 3; LMP - 1; Durelin -1)
13. SpM for dancing spawn (Boromir 88 -1; Gil-Galad - 6; Nonnacedak - 3; LMP - 1; Durelin -1; dancing spawn - 1)

Gil-Galad did not vote. (Perhaps he thought that, by not doing so, he would divert suspicion away from himelf should he survive the Day.)

So what can we learn from this?

I would say that the following are almost certainly not Wolves, because of their early votes for Gil-Galad:

Meneltarmacil
Boromir88
Nonnacedak
Gurthang

That list happily coincides with my list of Villagers who are almost certainly not Wolves from the Mithalwen vote. SamwiseGamgee was on that list and for that reason, I believe him innocent of Werewolvery too. Nonnacedak has pointed out that he is the only Villager to have voted for a Wolf on each Day. I had noticed that too. His votes are so not the votes of a Wolf. So I hope that we will have no more nonsense about him being the Wolf.

*glares at LMP and Laitaine*

The only other person to vote for Gil-Galad was Lalaith. At the time she voted, he could still have been saved. But it was unlikely and she perhaps thought that she would be better off voting for him to given the appearance of innocence and “go it alone” as the lone Wolf. So she remains one of my suspects, but less so.

That leaves:

The Saucepan Man
Durelin
Laitaine
Dancing spawn of ungoliant
LMP

Indeed, if you look back on the previous Days’ voting, knowing now the identity of two of the Wolves, these are the Villagers whose votes look the most suspicious. Laitiane and dancing spawn have voted suspiciously each day.

Yes, I am on one of my own lists again. How bold of me! Only, I can assure you, if you are not already convinced, that I am no Wolf and I am no Bear.

I said yesterday that I do not believe that LMP is the Wolf. I did not say why. I think that perhaps I should now explain. On Day 1, as has been noted on a number of occasions, Mithalwen suggested that he might be the Seer. Her grounds for doing so were his status as a replacement of Azaelia of Willowbottom. If he was a Wolf, she would surely not have drawn attention to that issue. I had been reluctant to point this out earlier in case he was the Seer. I am now convinced that he is not. He is either the Hunter, the Cobbler or the Bear. So he should not be lynched today (assuming that you agree with me that we should be focusing on the Wolf).

In light of all that, I am now all but convinced that our remaining Wolf is one of the following:

Durelin
Laitaine
Lalaith
Dancing spawn

Let’s examine each one in detail:

Durelin: She voted against the Mithalwen bandwagon on Day 1, for a known innocent. Her early vote for me on Day 2 is less suspicious – wanting to save CaptainofDespair in case he was the ranger (as he was) is most un-Wolfish behaviour. She was top of Gil-Galad’s Day 2 suspect list (the only suspect list he ever made). She voiced suspicions of him on Day 3, but thought that he was either the Cobbler or a confused innocent (as did I). Her early vote for Boromir88, who never seemed like a potential lynch victim to me, was most un-Wolfish. She is suspicious, but least so out of my four Wolf suspects.

Laitaine: She also voted against the Mithalwen bandwagon on Day 1, again for a known innocent, and mildly defended Mithalwen at the same time (although I recognise that she would have had a better chance of saving Mithalwen had she voted for Gurthang, Firefoot or Menel). She was mildly suspicious of Gil-Galad on Day 2, but also suggested that he might simply be “deranged”. She did not vote for him, but instead voted for Durelin to put her equal on votes with Gil. In her favour, Gil-Galad did also include her on his Day 2 suspect list, but that may have been a tactic in case he was caught. Laitaine mentioned Gil-Galad (amongst others) as suspicious on Day 3, but later suggested that he seemed only to be a “bumbling fool”, rather than a Wolf. And she defended him again when voting (for Nonnacedak), suggesting that he was innocent but “rather thick”. At that time, he still only had 3 votes and might yet have been spared the noose. Indeed, Laitaine seems to have been quite dismissive of Gil’s guilt throughout – perhaps supporting his “nonchalant” behaviour. What better way to surreptitiously defend a fellow Wolf than to criticise him as an innocent fool. She is very suspicious, although she is almost certainly not the Bear (because of her vote for Alcarillo followed by his death at the Bear’s hands (paws?) the very next Night).

Lalaith: She mildly defended Mithalwen and voted against the Mithalwen bandwagon on Day 1 for another potential lynchee, but not the obvious one (Gurthang). She voiced no suspicion of Gil-Galad on Day 2 and voted for CaptainofDespair at a time when Gil-Galad could still have been lynched (although that could potentially have resulted in a double lynching). She voted for Gil-Galad on Day 3, but had not accused him at all previously, having said that he was either just being himself or was the Cobbler. Moreover, her Day 3 vote came at a time when he was looking likely to be lynched. She is still suspicious. She could be trying to hide with her vote for Gil, having decided that the Village looks kindly on those who have voted for Wolves and thinking she had a good chance of going it alone. But I suspect her less than I did.

Dancing spawn: On Day 1, she said that she thought that it was the Village’s primary aim to catch the Bear (perhaps an attempt to protect the Wolves). She could have been hiding with her vote for Mithalwen on Day 1, since Mithalwen’s fate was practically sealed. She did voice suspicions of Mithalwen when she still could have been saved, although she also said at the same time that we should not necessarily be looking at those who were most suspicious. She did voice strong suspicions of Gil on Day 2, but said she thought he might be the Cobbler. She then voted for CaptainofDespair to put him two ahead of Gil. She maintained her stance that Gil-Galad was the Cobbler on Day 3 and voted for LMP, a possible Bear (or Cobbler) but no Wolf. Her defence at #227 seemed to me to be a little over-the-top, but perhaps a Wolf would be careful to avoid displaying the same behaviour that gave Mithalwen away. Dancing spawn is still very suspicious in my eyes, but less so than Laitaine.

So my suspects for Wolf are Laitaine, dancing spawn, Lalaith and Durelin – in that order. LMP is still my prime suspect for Bear but, as I said, I think that we should focus on the Wolf today.

Laitaine · 08-19-2005, 07:49 AM

*raises eyebrows* Gil, a werewolf…*whistles*

Well, I never saw that coming, but clearly I was wrong
I still think the final werewolf is our fisher, Non.
Makes perfect sense for him to jump on wagon for Gil‘s kill,
His reasoning for doing so sound much like our dear Gil’s:

Quote:

Originally Posted by Non

Yesterday I voted for Gil-Galad and I think today will be no different. Reasons for this vote have been said many times over so I feel I dont need to say why.

Compare:

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gil

after reviewing the posts, i have decided to cast my vote to

++Gurthang

no hard feelings chap, my reasons have already been said by other people, so instead of wasting time...

*eyes bulge*
Gil-galad was a wolf, my friends, we can’t believe his words.
Non sounds so much like him, he too should not be heard!.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lalaith

(Nonnacedak was btw the first to vote for Gil the wolf two days running, so he's a pretty treacherous wolf if he is one...)

Gil already’d been suspected for these past two days
It wasn’t like Non just decided he wanted his friend slayed.
Suspicion stacked against him, Gil really had no chance
I tell you, Non jumped on the wagon, saving his own pants!

*takes a deep breath, blows soothing D on recorder to calm self*

‘Twould not be fair to vote for him without his chance to speak.
But I tell you, in my eyes, Non, your future’s very bleak.
And now my friends, I must depart for the entire rest of day.
(I’m moving into college that’s about five hours away).
I doubt I will be able to come back before day ends,
But I don’t think it fair to vote now and not hear from you friends.
I have my firm convictions against that character Non,
But vote without his chance to speak? I will not have it done.

Friends, if I do not return, then my vote won’t be cast.
I realize this is risky, but I will not vote too fast.
By “fast,” I mean right now, because I’m leaving soon today.
Wish me luck upon my journey, and may you all find your way.

*bounds off with eighteen trunks and bags, tooting trusty recorder*

Meneltarmacil · 08-19-2005, 12:17 PM

I can'te put my finger on what Laitaine mighte be hiding. I doubte she is an Ordinary Villager, but what she truly is I knowe not. She maye be a Wolfe withe ye way she defendeth Gil-Galad and did not give her vote to Mithalwen, but suche actiones may indicate a Cobbler as welle.

A Wolfe she may be, in my opinione at leaste. I shalle be watching her, and will vote for her later unlesse something better cometh along.

08-19-2005, 06:24 AM	#1
littlemanpoet Itinerant Songster Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: The Edge of Faerie Posts: 7,066	Predictions for Day Four I'm writing this post during NIGHT phase in order to post as soon as I can on DAY 4 ... 1. I'll survive the Night. So why am I predicting my own survival? No, I'm not a werebeast. Rather, the werebear won't kill me because I'm diverting suspicion from her. Yes, look for a female, I think; potentially Lalaith. Further, the werewolf will leave me alone because all your suspicions against me are diverting attention away from her too (yes, female again, is my guess, like Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant. Can't help thinking SPM is onto something there. 2. The Seer will be killed tonight, attacked by both werebear and werewolf, because that person has not bee subtle enough to escape their notice. 3. Arcticstorm will escape death for one more night because neither werebeast can afford to allow the Seer to stay alive for another night. 4. The Seer will have dreamed of me last night, because of so much suspicion directed my way. And therefore will have been apprised of my innocence. But fat lot of good that does me, with seer dead. If the Seer has, by some crazy chance survived the Night, please vouch for me before you die, because you know I'm innocent. 5. Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant and Nonnacedak will not have been killed, because I think the former is the Bear and the latter is the remaining Wolf. Spawn voted for me when the issue was well decided, to keep suspicion on me. If, by some bizaare chance, our Hunter has led the werewolf and werebear to believe him to be the Seer, he will have pulled off a major strategy coup, and we are on our way to winning, against all odds. If this has been the case, congratulations on a game most excellently played. I recommend a double lynching of Spawn & Nonnacedak; better to survive and face the wrath of Moddwen ++ Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant

08-19-2005, 06:46 AM	#3
Boromir88 Laconic Loreman Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: USA Posts: 7,521	This will be my only post you'll see from me in a while. I'm going on a little trip, but should be back by 6 or so, so I'll be able to vote and weigh in and all the rest, just you won't see many posts from me until later. lmp, I am more sure of your innocence today mo so then yesterday. I think you will have to do some explaining (for me atleast). I agree that the wolves would not stick together so closely especially on day 1. That would have to be the boldest move I would have seen played, it does give you no flexibility. The only thing is, the wolves could have set this plan up, but not intending one of their own to be caught on Day 1. So, that I think you'll need to explain to me, because I can not know your innocence, and it'll be you or if the Seer steps out that will have to convince me. I know suspicions of me are arrising. I will say this before I go, if I was the bear I must be a really stupid bear to continually vote the same way people have claimed the bear would vote. Would you not think? Anyway, when I get back I'll explain more if needed. As far as catching the bear. I think it's accurate to say the bear does not care who gets lynched as long as its not himself/herself. So, either the bear votes very early (Durelin) who has often done so, though this may be because of not wanting to get up. Or the bear votes typically late, hoping to get a double lynching. (When I look through the votes I'll give some insight). I am less inclined to believe it's Durelin. She did defend Captain when he was being put up for werebearary. I don't think a bear would do that, if the bear does not care who gets lynched. In fact, if she was the bear, she would know Captain was not the bear, therefor probably would have voted for Captain, knowing she'd be killing an innocent. __________________ Fenris Penguin

08-19-2005, 07:11 AM	#4
Lalaith Blithe Spirit Join Date: Jan 2003 Posts: 2,779	Oh, and another point, I am quite baffled by Lmp's post above. First he says I'm the bear and dancing spawn is the wolf. Then he says spawn is the bear and Nonnacedak is the wolf and suggests a double lynching of both of them (Nonnacedak was btw the first to vote for Gil the wolf two days running, so he's a pretty treacherous wolf if he is one...) __________________ Out went the candle, and we were left darkling

08-19-2005, 07:32 AM	#5
Nonnacedak Animated Skeleton Join Date: Aug 2005 Location: Utah Posts: 44	Well let me say first off I have yet to not vote for a wolf...... Mith, Gil, Gil. I would be willing to bet a day's worth of trout that LMP or Laitaine is the other wolf. The lonesome last wolf was trying to get suspision on me therefore voting for me just because I have been the bane of their existance. I cant prove that Im not the bear or can I say that I think I have any Idea who it may be. If you must lynch me though so be it. At this point Im willing to take one for the village. __________________ NonnacedaKKadecannoN

08-19-2005, 08:54 AM	#8
littlemanpoet Itinerant Songster Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: The Edge of Faerie Posts: 7,066	A Proposal I've noticed that a few of you are immediately working with the hypothesis of "Say LMP is a werebeast; how do his words read?" Seeing as I'm getting so much attention anyway: If you're thinking about voting to lynch me, I propose that you also try out the hypothesis of "Say LMP is actually an innocent Ord, fumbling around blindly just like the rest of us; how do his words read?" Then compare your results. I haven't done the comparison because I already know what I am; I don't need to. But go ahead and do it, I request, and see what the results are. I'm not convinced I'll come out "smelling" any better, but I'd be interested to see what you come up with. Okay, yes, I contradicted myself. My final paragraph and vote were tagged on very early this morning and I forgot to read what I'd written last night. Sorry. Consider my final paragraph to supercede the ones they contradict. Lalaith, I still say you give me too much credit. I may have intelligence, but analysis is not my strength. I try to do my best, but as you have seen, I'm not that great at checking my facts - - - especially when I don't have the kind of time (or home computer) available that this situation requires. Oh, and about the above proposal/request, ask yourself "why would LMP vote so early again... 1-if he was a werewolf? 2-if he was a werebear? 3-if he was an innocent Ord as he claims? See what you come up with. Again, I'd be interested. Since I've already voted, I'm not sure how much I'll be back, but I promise to read every post at least once.

08-19-2005, 08:58 AM	#10
The Saucepan Man Corpus Cacophonous Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: A green and pleasant land Posts: 8,390	Warning: long one coming up OK, folks, let’s not panic. While there’s no denying that arcticstorm’s death is a blow, it was not unexpected. And it was likely that another innocent would die too. I’m sorry that it was wilwarin, but it at least knocks another Villager off my suspect list. Take heart, fellow Villagers. Let’s look on the positives. We killed another Wolf last night, a fantastic result, and we still have our Seer and our Hunter. Now, I have to date advocated keeping an eye out for the Bear, and I counsel no differently to-Day. But we have now happily arrived at a situation where killing either the Wolf or the Bear will put an end to the two kills per night. And, while a lone Wolf may be more difficult to spot, we do have much more to go on as far as the Wolf is concerned. In particular, the votes cast to date. I therefore believe that we should today concentrate on catching the last Wolf. The fact that we have now killed two Wolves makes the previous days’ votes even more helpful in this task. So, here’s my traditional list of yester-Day’s votes: 1. Durelin for Boromir88 (Boromir 88 - 1) 2. Menel for Gil-Galad (Boromir 88 - 1; Gil-Galad - 1) 3. Boromir88 for Gil-Galad (Boromir 88 - 1; Gil-Galad - 2) 4. Nonnacedak for Gil-Galad (Boromir 88 - 1; Gil-Galad - 3) 5. Laitaine for Nonnacedak (Boromir 88 - 1; Gil-Galad - 3; Nonnacedak - 1) 6. Gurthang for Gil-Galad (Boromir 88 - 1; Gil-Galad - 4; Nonnacedak - 1) 7. Lalaith for Gil-Galad (Boromir 88 - 1; Gil-Galad - 5; Nonnacedak - 1) 8. Dancing spawn for LMP (Boromir 88 - 1; Gil-Galad - 5; Nonnacedak - 1; LMP - 1) 9. LMP for Nonnacedak (Boromir 88 - 1; Gil-Galad - 5; Nonnacedak - 2; LMP - 1) 10. SamwiseGamgee for Gil-Galad (Boromir 88 -1; Gil-Galad - 6; Nonnacedak - 2; LMP - 1) 11. Wilwarin538 for Nonnacedak (Boromir 88 -1; Gil-Galad - 6; Nonnacedak - 3; LMP - 1) 12. Arcticstorm for Durelin (Boromir 88 -1; Gil-Galad - 6; Nonnacedak - 3; LMP - 1; Durelin -1) 13. SpM for dancing spawn (Boromir 88 -1; Gil-Galad - 6; Nonnacedak - 3; LMP - 1; Durelin -1; dancing spawn - 1) Gil-Galad did not vote. (Perhaps he thought that, by not doing so, he would divert suspicion away from himelf should he survive the Day.) So what can we learn from this? I would say that the following are almost certainly not Wolves, because of their early votes for Gil-Galad: Meneltarmacil Boromir88 Nonnacedak Gurthang That list happily coincides with my list of Villagers who are almost certainly not Wolves from the Mithalwen vote. SamwiseGamgee was on that list and for that reason, I believe him innocent of Werewolvery too. Nonnacedak has pointed out that he is the only Villager to have voted for a Wolf on each Day. I had noticed that too. His votes are so not the votes of a Wolf. So I hope that we will have no more nonsense about him being the Wolf. glares at LMP* and Laitaine* The only other person to vote for Gil-Galad was Lalaith. At the time she voted, he could still have been saved. But it was unlikely and she perhaps thought that she would be better off voting for him to given the appearance of innocence and “go it alone” as the lone Wolf. So she remains one of my suspects, but less so. That leaves: The Saucepan Man Durelin Laitaine Dancing spawn of ungoliant LMP Indeed, if you look back on the previous Days’ voting, knowing now the identity of two of the Wolves, these are the Villagers whose votes look the most suspicious. Laitiane and dancing spawn have voted suspiciously each day. Yes, I am on one of my own lists again. How bold of me! Only, I can assure you, if you are not already convinced, that I am no Wolf and I am no Bear. I said yesterday that I do not believe that LMP is the Wolf. I did not say why. I think that perhaps I should now explain. On Day 1, as has been noted on a number of occasions, Mithalwen suggested that he might be the Seer. Her grounds for doing so were his status as a replacement of Azaelia of Willowbottom. If he was a Wolf, she would surely not have drawn attention to that issue. I had been reluctant to point this out earlier in case he was the Seer. I am now convinced that he is not. He is either the Hunter, the Cobbler or the Bear. So he should not be lynched today (assuming that you agree with me that we should be focusing on the Wolf). In light of all that, I am now all but convinced that our remaining Wolf is one of the following: Durelin Laitaine Lalaith Dancing spawn Let’s examine each one in detail: Durelin: She voted against the Mithalwen bandwagon on Day 1, for a known innocent. Her early vote for me on Day 2 is less suspicious – wanting to save CaptainofDespair in case he was the ranger (as he was) is most un-Wolfish behaviour. She was top of Gil-Galad’s Day 2 suspect list (the only suspect list he ever made). She voiced suspicions of him on Day 3, but thought that he was either the Cobbler or a confused innocent (as did I). Her early vote for Boromir88, who never seemed like a potential lynch victim to me, was most un-Wolfish. She is suspicious, but least so out of my four Wolf suspects. Laitaine: She also voted against the Mithalwen bandwagon on Day 1, again for a known innocent, and mildly defended Mithalwen at the same time (although I recognise that she would have had a better chance of saving Mithalwen had she voted for Gurthang, Firefoot or Menel). She was mildly suspicious of Gil-Galad on Day 2, but also suggested that he might simply be “deranged”. She did not vote for him, but instead voted for Durelin to put her equal on votes with Gil. In her favour, Gil-Galad did also include her on his Day 2 suspect list, but that may have been a tactic in case he was caught. Laitaine mentioned Gil-Galad (amongst others) as suspicious on Day 3, but later suggested that he seemed only to be a “bumbling fool”, rather than a Wolf. And she defended him again when voting (for Nonnacedak), suggesting that he was innocent but “rather thick”. At that time, he still only had 3 votes and might yet have been spared the noose. Indeed, Laitaine seems to have been quite dismissive of Gil’s guilt throughout – perhaps supporting his “nonchalant” behaviour. What better way to surreptitiously defend a fellow Wolf than to criticise him as an innocent fool. She is very suspicious, although she is almost certainly not the Bear (because of her vote for Alcarillo followed by his death at the Bear’s hands (paws?) the very next Night). Lalaith: She mildly defended Mithalwen and voted against the Mithalwen bandwagon on Day 1 for another potential lynchee, but not the obvious one (Gurthang). She voiced no suspicion of Gil-Galad on Day 2 and voted for CaptainofDespair at a time when Gil-Galad could still have been lynched (although that could potentially have resulted in a double lynching). She voted for Gil-Galad on Day 3, but had not accused him at all previously, having said that he was either just being himself or was the Cobbler. Moreover, her Day 3 vote came at a time when he was looking likely to be lynched. She is still suspicious. She could be trying to hide with her vote for Gil, having decided that the Village looks kindly on those who have voted for Wolves and thinking she had a good chance of going it alone. But I suspect her less than I did. Dancing spawn: On Day 1, she said that she thought that it was the Village’s primary aim to catch the Bear (perhaps an attempt to protect the Wolves). She could have been hiding with her vote for Mithalwen on Day 1, since Mithalwen’s fate was practically sealed. She did voice suspicions of Mithalwen when she still could have been saved, although she also said at the same time that we should not necessarily be looking at those who were most suspicious. She did voice strong suspicions of Gil on Day 2, but said she thought he might be the Cobbler. She then voted for CaptainofDespair to put him two ahead of Gil. She maintained her stance that Gil-Galad was the Cobbler on Day 3 and voted for LMP, a possible Bear (or Cobbler) but no Wolf. Her defence at #227 seemed to me to be a little over-the-top, but perhaps a Wolf would be careful to avoid displaying the same behaviour that gave Mithalwen away. Dancing spawn is still very suspicious in my eyes, but less so than Laitaine. So my suspects for Wolf are Laitaine, dancing spawn, Lalaith and Durelin – in that order. LMP is still my prime suspect for Bear but, as I said, I think that we should focus on the Wolf today. __________________ Do you mind? I'm busy doing the fishstick. It's a very delicate state of mind! Last edited by The Saucepan Man; 08-19-2005 at 09:04 AM. Reason: Always spell Laitaine's name wrong

08-19-2005, 12:17 PM	#12
Meneltarmacil Ghost Prince of Cardolan Join Date: Jun 2003 Location: The bottom of the ocean, discussing philosophy with a giant squid Posts: 2,254	I can'te put my finger on what Laitaine mighte be hiding. I doubte she is an Ordinary Villager, but what she truly is I knowe not. She maye be a Wolfe withe ye way she defendeth Gil-Galad and did not give her vote to Mithalwen, but suche actiones may indicate a Cobbler as welle. A Wolfe she may be, in my opinione at leaste. I shalle be watching her, and will vote for her later unlesse something better cometh along. __________________ I ♣ baby seals.