Werewolf IIX - Tra la la lally, here down in the Saga, ha ha!

[The Saucepan Man]

OK, here’s my handy list of Day 2 voting:

1. CaptainofDespair for SpM (SpM – 1)
2. Durelin for SpM (SpM – 2)
3. Meneltarmacil for CaptainofDespair (SpM - 2; CaptainofDespair – 1)
4. Nonnacedak for Gil-Galad (SpM - 2; CaptainofDespair - 1; Gil-Galad – 1)
5. SamwiseGamgee for CaptainofDespair (SpM - 2; CaptainofDespair - 2; Gil-Galad – 1)
6. Boromir88 for CaptainofDespair (SpM - 2; CaptainofDespair - 3; Gil-Galad – 1)
7. arcticstorm for CaptainofDespair (SpM - 2; CaptainofDespair - 4; Gil-Galad – 1)
8. Laitaine for Durelin (SpM - 2; CaptainofDespair - 4; Gil-Galad - 1; Durelin – 1)
9. Wilwarin538 for Gil-Galad (SpM - 2; CaptainofDespair - 4; Gil-Galad - 2; Durelin – 1)
10. Encaitare for Gil-Galad (SpM - 2; CaptainofDespair - 4; Gil-Galad - 3; Durelin – 1)
11. LMP for Durelin (SpM - 2; CaptainofDespair - 4; Gil-Galad - 3; Durelin – 2)
12. Dancing spawn for CaptainofDespair: (SpM - 2; CaptainofDespair - 5; Gil-Galad - 3; Durelin – 2)
13. Firefoot for Durelin (SpM - 2; CaptainofDespair - 5; Gil-Galad - 3; Durelin – 3)
14. Gurthang for Gil-Galad (SpM - 2; CaptainofDespair - 5; Gil-Galad - 4; Durelin – 3)
15. SpM for CaptainofDespair: (SpM - 2; CaptainofDespair - 6; Gil-Galad - 4; Durelin – 3)
16. Lalaith for CaptainofDespair (SpM - 2; CaptainofDespair - 7; Gil-Galad - 4; Durelin – 3)

Gil-Galad did not vote.

I still believe that none of those who voted second to sixth for Mithalwen on Day 1 are Wolves. To have voted for a fellow Wolf on Day 1, at a time when she was attracting all the votes but could yet be saved, would be an incredible bluff. A good way of looking innocent thereafter, perhaps. But surely too risky.

And, as I have said above, I believe that at least one Wolf, and possibly two voted for CaptainofDespair yesterday, concluding that he was (as indeed he was) the Ranger.

The only Villagers who were not in the first six to vote for Mithalwen and who voted for CaptainofDespair are:

Arcticstorm
Dancing spawn of ungoliant
The Saucepan Man
Lalaith

Arctistorm’s accusations of Mithalwen earlier on Day 1 make him less suspicious in my eyes. And I know that I am innocent.

Which leaves Lalaith and dancing spawn. Lalaith I already suspect. But I really have no idea about dancing spawn. She seems innocent, but it might prove dangerous to assume her innocence simply on that basis.

I am less convinced that a Wolf would have voted for Gil-Galad, since he is such a prime candidate for Cobbler (even if he is not one). The Wolves don’t know who the Cobbler is, but will want him or her to stay alive for as long as one of their own number is not at risk.

Difficult to say who the Bear would have voted for as, let's face it, the Bear can vote for just about anyone without looking too suspicious.

I must admit that, on reflection, the Night's events make me even less suspicious of Durelin, of Werewovery at least. Firefoot's killing points to her, since she made strong accusations against Firefoot yester-Day and Firefoot voted for her. That looks mightily like a frame up to me (although it could be a bold double-bluff, I suppose).

Originally Posted by Lalaith

I'm still feeling wary about Boromir and Gurthang. Boromir's assertions that innocence should not defend itself seemed instrumental in the lynching of our Ranger. And Gurthang because of his funny voting on the first day.

Surely, though, you cannot suspect them of being Wolves. Boromir88's vote for Mithalwen was pretty decisive, and Mithalwen's vote for Gurthang speaks in his favour. Either of them could be the Bear, of course. Indeed, it would not surprise me at all if the Bear was hiding in that gaggle of Villagers who voted early for Mithalwen.

Originally Posted by arcticstorm

LMP heads up my bear suspicion list

Arcticstorm, the analysis that leads you to that conclusion is an attractive one. And my thoughts have been leading in that direction too. My only concern is that his very early vote on Day 1 might be regarded as overly risky behaviour for a Bear. Nevertheless, I feel that LMP has a role to play in all of this.

Originally Posted by Lalaith

As for the other Shirriff, my instinct at this stage, is that they should keep quiet unless they are in serious danger of being lynched. And that anyone who has suspicions about his/her identity should also keep quiet.

I tend to agree. Unless there is some way to organise a mass lynching ...

[Lalaith]

Can I point out, with regard to the Saucie's list, that if you check the times of the posts yesterday, you will see that his and my vote were more or less simultaneous.
At the time I posted, the voting stood at CofD 5, Gil 4. A vote for Gil, as far as I knew, would have resulted in a double lynching. It was not until after I made my post, I saw that SpM had also voted for CofD.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Durelin

His taking of the lead is either just him being very helpful as an innocent (and perhaps even gifted), or he knows something we all do not due to his guilt.

Actually, I think that your comment yester-Day is probably nearer the mark:

Originally Posted by Durelin, yester-Day

SaucepanMan says too much, and really has no idea what he's doing

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

Its the way Saucie said that if the other shirriff reveals themself they would definetly be the one to go tonight. Why is that? Why would the wolves or bear be threatened by the shirriff?

For the reasons that Lalaith stated. A known innocent, if declared at the right time, can certainly be very dangerous for them. I said "almost certain" because they would of course rather go for the Seer if they thought that they had identified him or her. And it might be dangerous for them to go for the Hunter if they felt that he or she was on to them.

[littlemanpoet]

I have been busy at my baking ovens, preparing some special treats for those of you who remain alive, to observe a memorial to CaptainofDespair and those who have been grievously slain during the night.

For those who voted to lynch CaptainofDespair I've prepared custard pie with extra whipped cream. Here you go!

::LMP throws custard pies (egg) in the faces of Arcticstorm, Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant, Saucepan Man, Boromir, SamwiseGamgee, and Meneltarmacil::

And for each of you who voted more wisely, I present you each with your own Dainish Pastry, straight from the Iron Hills! Enjoy! Oh! There's an extra pair for our two dear departeds. Oh well, I guess I'll have to eat them myself.

::eats them himself::

Now to it.

SPM's werebear motivations and strategies set is but one of a number of possible choices for the werebear. Durelin, though I still suspect her, did wisely say that the werebear wouldn't be as brash as CoD. SPM's werebear strategy is only the most obvious choice, and therefore one that the werebear might be tempted to set aside because of its obviousness. What troubles me most about SPM's werebear strategy is that it applies every bit as well to your typical innocent villager. Note: in the following text I have substituted "an innocent villager" for "a Black Beorning"

Originally Posted by SPM

But this is the behaviour of an innocent villager - to pick up on suggestions of guilt (in others than himself) and encourage them.

And an innocent villager would do this on the grounds that it would make sense to him/her.

Originally Posted by SPM

Interestingly, earlier on Day 1 (post #36), he had picked up on the suspicions then being voiced against Gurthang and also made a random accusation against Durelin (perhaps to add her name into the mix). Next time he posted (post #49) was to vote against Mithalwen after Gurthang, Firefoot, SamwiseGamgee & wilwarin538 had all commented on her suspicious behaviour. Not the actions of a Wolf - but the Innocent Villager doesn’t mind who is lynched as long as it’s not him and his name is kept off people’s list of suspects.

This last sentence just stood out to me so strongly as lawyerly persuasion at its most dangerous. I am NOT saying that SPM is suspicious, I'm saying that he let his theorizing take flight without checking all the angles. Very dangerous and tempting behavior for someone who is overeager to catch a bad guy. And quite understandable.

Originally Posted by SPM

If Mithalwen turned out to be a Wolf (as she did), his first vote for her would stand to his credit. If not, that would be an[other] innocent Villager down and he could distance himself from the outcome by pointing out the earlier suspicions voiced by others. He was quiet for the rest of the day.

Upshot: I think it's wrongheaded to try to go after the Black Beorning, especially when there are some obviously suspicious people hanging around. Even if there weren't, it's still unwise to go blindly after the Black Beorning with shots in the dark that are more likely to take down an innocent villager than going after werewolves is. We're used to going after werewolves, and have proven ourselves not too shabby at it. Yes, I know that 2 villagers per night will continue to get killed, but the sooner we take out 2 more werewolves and/or the cobbler, the less likely the villagers will lose this battle. The odds are against us! Do not dilly dally with half-baked schemes and persuasions! We've lost our Ranger, who NEVER seemed guilty in the least to me, at any point.

And there's another thing. The introduction of the Cobbler into our scenario has rendered the noble suicide for the sake of the village, suspect. In other villages, when someone did this, it was obvious to the rest of the villagers that they were voting for the wrong person. Now it could be the cobbler, but probably isn't, precisely because the cobbler is probably going to be more subtle than that. Even so, saying "make my day" actually is now counterproductive whereas it used to reveal innocence, because the speaker "just might" be the cobbler.

Gurthang, earlier you reminded me that Boromir and Encaitare were only doing what I had already done, accusing someone for being in character. The difference is that I was the first, and they bandwaggoned on my idea. If it had been the other way around, I'd be the suspicious one.

I am now less suspicious of Durelin because her voice of reason in post #160 echoes my sentiments exactly, and her reasons for wild posting have (to me at least) the ring of truth (and maybe I'm a fool, but you gotta go with something, eh?).

I too did notice that SPM fits his description of the werebear quite well. And it's just as interesting that he was the one to get into the mind of a werebear first. Now, that may be good citizenship at its best, but then again it may be something more furry. Not that I believe that, but NOBODY BUT NOBODY should escape scrutiny, and that includes yours truly, of course.

Lalaith strikes me as either the werebear or a certain type that I choose not to specify...

If I were the Seer, I should like to dream about Arcticstorm, whose posts have been bland and safe, his votes safer, flying so far under the radar that he seems mighty suspicious to me upon reading through my notes. He's been too invisible, letting the loudmouths point the finger at others, covering over his quietness. Very furry behavior, seems to me.

Which brings me to another point about innocence versus guilt and how to tell the difference under these circumstances. Fortified with the knowledge of their own innocence, these types tend to view attacks against themselves as suspicious; thus people like CoD basically hit back, because they became suspicious of SPM for attacking them. Same goes for Durelin, whom, since her post #160, I now believe to be innocent. You see, people who are not cobblers or werecreatures tend to post the first thing they think of because they don't feel that they have to cover their butts. Werecreatures and cobblers are saddled with a constant job of doublethink, and that's the kind of thing that shows, and it's what we need to look for.

Boromir is also looking furry to me, because of his safe voting, his tendency to divert attention away from certain things towards where he wants it (post 113 for example).

So I think we should give serious consideration to lynching one and dreaming the other of Arcticstorm & Boromir.

Likely Innocents, on the strength of their contributions to finding furry beasts:
Dancing Spawn
Gurthang (first to attack Mith)
SPM
Oh, and me.

Probably innocent on the strength of their sometimes contributions and rather guileless posting:
Durelin
Gil-Galad
Meneltarmacil
Wilwarin
Laitaine (it's way too hard to write verse that scans and rhymes, AND be a wereanything. I should know!)

Somewhat suspicious:
Nonnacedak (posts 37, 135, 157, 167)
Samwisegamgee (posts 44 - conveniently late vote for Mith-, 137 - SPM too clever-; in his defense, I agree with him that we should have stopped the craziness in voting for SPM - post 165.

Very suspicious:
Arcticstorm
Boromir

There. Phew!