Werewolf IIX - Tra la la lally, here down in the Saga, ha ha!

[The Saucepan Man]

Hmm, some interesting developments while I have been away.

I said that I would explain why I believe that CaptainofDespair may (note the emphasis on may) be the Black Beorning. And so that is what I shall do.

I do not believe him to be a Wolf. He started the ball rolling with a vote against Mithalwen after quite strong suspicions had been voiced against her. It was clear at that stage that others would probably follow suit. I do not believe that a Wolf would vote for another Wolf in those circumstances. Far too risky.

But this is the behaviour of a Black Beorning - to pick up on suggestions of guilt (in others than himself) and encourage them. Interestingly, earlier on Day 1 (post #36), he had picked up on the suspicions then being voiced against Gurthang and also made a random accusation against Durelin (perhaps to add her name into the mix). Next time he posted (post #49) was to vote against Mithalwen after Gurthang, Firefoot, SamwiseGamgee and wilwarin538 had all commented on her suspicious behaviour. Not the actions of a Wolf - but the Bear doesn’t mind who is lynched as long as it’s not him and his name is kept off people’s list of suspects. If Mithalwen turned out to be a Wolf (as she did), his first vote for her would stand to his credit. If not, that would be an innocent Villager down and he could distance himself from the outcome by pointing out the earlier suspicions voiced by others. He was quiet for the rest of the day.

As I said earlier, the Bear is likely to be throwing accusations about while trying not to look too conspicuous. He doesn’t mind who he accuses because he doesn’t care who gets lynched as long as it’s not him. CaptainofDespair started off today (at post #83) by voicing mild suspicion of no less than six Villagers - LMP, wilwa, Gurthang, Menel, Lalaith and Gil-Galad. Two of those (Gurthang and Menel) have not behaved remotely suspiciously in my view.

But what I find really interesting is the following:

Originally Posted by Durelin at #95

What's scary is that the bear could be anywhere. The bear could be CaptainofDespair, or SamwiseGamgee, or Meneltmarcil, or Boromir88...it could be anyone.

Originally Posted by CaptainofDespair at #98

Me? A Bear? *gasps* What nonsense! I can assure you, on the honor of my shrews, that I am no such thing.

Durelin’s accusation was not a serious one. She was simply making the (valid) point that the Bear could be anyone. So why did CaptainofDespair feel the need to jump in and refute the suggestion quite so defiantly? (I see that Boromir88 has picked up on this too.)

I also said earlier that the Bear is likely to encourage any suggestion that another Villager might be the Bear. Which is exactly what CaptainofDespair did (#110) in response to arcticstorm’s suggestion that Laitaine might be the Bear. And although I still harbour suspicions that Laitaine may be a Wolf, she is no Bear. It is very unlikely that the Bear (who needs to stay alive more than any other Villager since otherwise he/she has lost) would risk killing the person he/she voted for the Day before. And only Laitaine voted for Alcarillo on Day 1.

So this was the state of the evidence when I made my suggestion that CaptainofDespair might be the Bear. I really was in a hurry, and so could not elaborate. But I was also interested to see what his reaction would be without such elaboration.

And what does CaptainofDespair do? He reacts quite strongly by calling the Village’s bluff, adding a vague implication that he might be a Gifted Villager:

Originally Posted by CaptainofDespair at #128

Go ahead. Lynch me.

You'll be sorry when my death is shown as a vain enterprise. Then, you'll have another night where two will die.

Then, just after SamwiseGamgee has voiced a mild suspicion of me, he picks this up and runs with it by voting for me (#139). What’s more, he accuses me of being the Black Beorning on the basis that I have been zealously seeking Wolves while providing “little in the way of tracking down the Beorning”. Well, excuse me, but (as Boromir88 has pointed out) I believe that I am one of the few Villagers who has made any effort to consider how we might identify the Black Beorning. In my view, his vote was simply a reaction to my having voiced suspicions against him, as his stated reasons for doing so do not stand up to scrutiny.

CaptainofDespair’s reaction to my suggestion that he may be the Bear has therefore simply served to strengthen my belief in his ursine nature.

And yet I hesitate to condemn him. He is the only Villager who has given me any basis for suspecting as the Bear. But I may very well be wrong. If we want to lynch the Bear, he seems the prime candidate. But the evidence is circumstantial and he may yet turn out to be innocent. I accuse him in good faith, but I am most reluctant to see the blood of an innocent on my hands. And that is why (for the time being) I only say that he may be the Bear.

More later, once I have had time to muse over the other matters discussed while I was away.

(I realise that this repeats some of the reasoning recently expressed by other Villagers, but I composed it before reading their posts. It is encouraging to see that others are thinking along the same lines.)

[Meneltarmacil]

Thou speakest well, good Saucepan Man. CaptainofDespair, thou art verily on my Suspecte Liste, tied for firste place with Gil-Galad. I shall not vote until later, though. I suggeste lynching either Captain or Gil toDaye, then having ye Seere dreame about ye other toNighte.

And if it is Captain we lynche, why not burne him at ye stake like he suggested?

And for ye recorde, here is Ye Olde Liste:

1. CaptainofDespair and Gil-Galad are tied
2. Lalaith
3. Durelin

If I had to put roles to each, I woulde say that Captain is ye Beare, Gil and Lalaith are ye Wolves, and Durelin is ye Cobbler. But, ye evidence regarding ye laste two is not as convincing thoughe.

[Boromir88]

Some intriguing arguments have been made I see...

Meneltarmacil: If I had to put roles to each, I woulde say that Captain is ye Beare, Gil and Lalaith are ye Wolves, andDurelin is ye Cobbler. But, ye evidence regarding ye laste two is not as convincing thoughe.

Surely a noble proposition good sir knight, however I do find it unlikely that you've pinpointed all three roles down. There's bound to be a bad guy hiding within the "appeared" good guy crowd, it's just I say a likely chance.

I must say I am stuck in the same hole as Saucepan, I find today even more difficult then yesterday. Yesterday, I'd say I was about 20% sure Mithalwen was someone we wanted to get (which was the highest). Today I fear it's even less.

Captain surely looks the most suspicious to me, but it truly is a tough, tough choice. Our likelihood of not killing another villager today is very, very slim. Nevertheless, but we must do what we must do. Yesterday, was a tough choice and it turned out for the better, today will even be tougher to make. Like I said when I first awoke on the new day, working together, figuring things out will get us through this as it did on day 1.

[Durelin]

I'm wary of this bear talk, as I do think that the bear would be more cautious than CaptainofDespair has been. I think his posting more reflects that of the Cobbler. But, he could easily be a bumbling bear.

I see that, of course, you are still suspicious of me.

Durelin: I voted for her yesterday because of my suspicion, and today she is also making strange statements and not really going anywhere with her posts.

I will say plainly that this is because I have no idea where to go! There has been so much confusion, and I am more inclined to take in information and process it in my own way. That may sound like a load of crap, but it's true. And you know what...I think pretty much everyone talks a lot, but doesn't say any more than I have. We all make accusations over little things, and glossing over the fact that we really don't know who anyone is, we vote to kill someone.

But anyway... I'm very afraid to say at all that I agree with Saucepan Man, as I think his jump at CaptainofDespair has kindled a bit more excitement than it should have, most likely to his benefit, even though he continues to say that he is only saying that the Captain may be the bear. I just don't think the bear would be so bold as the Captain has been. This kind of boldness comes only from one who is sure of their innocence, and most likely is confused as to who is who, and who to trust.

What I find interesting about Saucepan Man, is that he fits his own description of the bear extraordinarily well. As far as I can tell, he has only attacked, and not really defended anyone's innocence. This could mean that he doesn't care who lives or dies. Also, he is avidly pinning the role of the bear on CaptainofDespair, and, as he said, the bear is wont to do so. Also, you have "thrown out a fair few accusations, while trying not to act overtly suspicious yourself," just as you said the bear should act.

It's possible that your detailed description of what the bear should be doing is what in fact you are doing as the bear. It's possible. And since right now you are a better bear than the Captain, I'm more inclined to think that you are the guilty one.

I feel horrible voting in such haste, but I will not be able to return until next morning's light. Thus, I will make my hasty vote, and, at the risk of being seen as a co-conspirator of CaptainofDespair (though, if he's the bear, then he has no friends), and at the risk of getting myself lynched, I will vote this:

++The Saucepan Man

[Durelin]

I am going to shamelessly (almost) double post because I cross-posted with a few people.

Originally Posted by Saucepan Man

Problem is, Captain, if you are spared the noose and are indeed innocent, your own words have most probably condemned you to a grisly death tonight. You are most unlikely to be a Wolf, we are all agreed on that. But if you are not the Bear, you have all but declared yourself as a Gifted Villager and (even if you are not) you have thereby made yourself a target for the Bear to-Night.

This is interesting... Don't you mean the Wolves tonight? I mean, really. It's in the best interest of the Bear to kill the Wolves, not a gifted. The gifted villagers are completely defenseless against the bear...only the wolves can kill him. I may be viciously jumping on this, but I find it interesting that you said the bear, when I would expect the wolves to bother with killing a gifted villager. Though I suppose the bear might be afraid of him being the seer, the wolves have to worry about all of the gifted villagers.

Now, it is time for me to depart. I do hope I return not as a spirit.

[arcticstorm]

As of right now, after reading through all the evidence presented to day so far,
my suspect list follows:
Bear: Captain of Despair

cobbler: Gil Galad
Gurthang

Wolves: Gil Galad
Durelin
Nonnacedak

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Durelin

What I find interesting about Saucepan Man, is that he fits his own description of the bear extraordinarily well.

A fair observation. But, if I was the Bear, do you really think that I would outline what I believe to be the Bear's likely pattern of behaviour and then go and act in precisely that way myself? That would be a bold bluff indeed.

Originally Posted by Durelin

This is interesting... Don't you mean the Wolves tonight? I mean, really. It's in the best interest of the Bear to kill the Wolves, not a gifted.

No, I meant the Bear. If CaptainofDespair is not a Bear, only the Bear will know that. If he is innocent but escapes the noose today, the Wolves may still suspect him to be the Bear. And I believe that it is in the best interests of the Wolves to keep the Bear alive for as long as possible since they win if only they and the Bear survive and they profit from the two kills per night. The Bear however (and this assumes the Captain is not a Bear) may well conclude from what he has said that he is a Gifted Villager and therefore target him tonight.

Originally Posted by Durelin

The gifted villagers are completely defenseless against the bear...

My understanding is that only the Ranger is powerless against the Bear. If the Seer dreams of him/her, then he/she will be revealed. And if the Hunter is attacked by him/her, the Hunter's chosen victim will die.

Funnily enough, Durelin, your vote for me as the Bear lessens my suspicions of you. For the reasons stated above, a Wolf is unlikely to vote for someone they believe to be the Bear. Unless, of course, you are the Bear ...

[SamwiseGamgee]

Let's stop a minute here, guys. The only person who has provided lengthy and meaningful insight thus far is SpM. I'll tell you this for certain: I am not a wolf and I am not acting as one in defending SpM, a fellow wolf, as you may think. I am really uncomfortable with the idea of killing SpM tonight, especially after some of the behaviour we've witnessed today. I can't tell you guys how to vote- but pause and look back over the posts: do you honestly think SpM is guilty? Is Durelin, though, perhaps beginning a campaign against SpM because he senses the time is right to have us kill one he knows is not one of hiss fellow wolf-cloven? I wonder.

[Nonnacedak]

Ok because of some lovely suspicion pointed my way and the fact that I dont have much more time tonight I am going to throw a vote out there.

I think the fact that Gil-Galad did start to sway the votes back for Gurthang when Mith was starting to get ganged up up shows us a lot...

I also want to get a vote out there early (since voting 6th has made some people think Im the wolf ~sigh~) to someone who I think really is a wolf. I do realize that voting early makes me a possible bear but really the only defense I have is to say is Im simply not the bear! (yes I know its pathetic)

++Gil-Galad

Good luck to us all!

[The Saucepan Man]

I believe that Gil-Galad is the most likely candidate for the Cobbler. Yes, he has acted suspiciously. But, in the face of some pretty heavy accusation, he has done little to defend himself. I agree that aggresively defending oneself is suspicious behaviour but, if Gil was a Wolf, I would expect a little more from him than he has shown to date.

Interestingly, if my running observations are correct, everybody has voiced suspicion of Gil-Galad except LMP, Durelin and Lalaith. And while LMP has made acusations against both of them, I believe that neither Durelin nor Lalaith has voiced any serious suspicion of the other.

Right now, my thinking is along the following lines:

Black Beorning: CaptainofDespair

Wolves: Lalaith and Durelin

Cobbler: Gil-Galad

But, as I said, I'll vote tomorrow.

[SamwiseGamgee]

Well, I'm going to vote. I begin work in just a little over 3 hours ( ) and won't be able to vote before nightfall.

++ CaptainofDespair

I'm as sure as I can be that he's the bear. Furthermore, he's the person I'm most suspicious of at the moment, and so I'll vote for him. Judge me as you will.

[Boromir88]

Well, well, I'm back. I have figured out in my best interests to hope for me to get up and vote, but im interested in seeing more.

We have an interesting decision on our hands...Tough one for myself. So here's out it been so far.

1. Captain of Despair: for Saucepan Man (Saucepan: 1)
2. Meneltarmacil: for Captain of Despair (Saucepan: 1, CoD: 1)
3. Durelin: for Saucepan Man (Saucepan: 2, CoD: 1)
4. Nonnacedak: for Gil-Galad (Saucepan: 2, CoD: 1, G-G: 1)
5. Samwise: for Captain of Despair (Saucepan: 2, CoD: 2, G-G: 1

With this new voting situation unfolding, hmm Durelin has slipped in to be a likely vote.

Edit: crossposting with Samwise, filled in the additional vote.