Werewolf IIX - Tra la la lally, here down in the Saga, ha ha!

[Boromir88]

One I must make a few corrections in my previous post, the other I was also cross-posting with Encataire. One I had said...

Right now, since it is hard to see who is the bear it may be in the club who did not vote. (Wilawarin, and Durelin).

In my mistake it was actually Wilwarin and Encataire who did not vote. And now seeing this, I don't have much suspiscion towards either of them. My main susipiscion when making this post was actually towards Durelin who seems to be handing out roles to try to get some attention away from him.

I agree with Firefoot's statement....

And, as some have pointed out, I was already suspicious of Mithalwen before I went to sleep; my vote was leaning that way anyway.ement...

It was actually her post (post #41) that got me looking at Mithalwen and turning my suspiscion away from Gurthang.

And I am also faced with Firefoot's case, only for me it's better for me to vote earlier (which is about 11-12 pm my time) then get up at 7 am and vote.

[Meneltarmacil]

Meneltarmacil, I have become somewhat suspicious of you. Mormegil was the first of just two to vote for you, and now he's dead! That does bring suspicion onto you. I wouldn't think a wolf would be so obvious, yet what better place to hide than where a wolf wouldn't be? You're on my watch list, also.

Ye Saucepan Man hath already said what I woulde have said, so I am not going to argue with thee over thy notions. It seemeth people had been getting suspicious of me due to my supposed bandwagoning and ye Wolves may be taking advantage of this by killing Mormegil and casting more suspicione on me as a resulte. Lalaith jumped on Morm's suggestione, perhaps she coulde be a Wolfe.

[wilwarin538]

Originaly posted by The Saucepan Man
Durelin
Gil-Galad
Laitaine
Lalaith

Of these, I would say that Gil-Galad is particularly suspicious because he tried to switch the votes back on Gurthang just when they were beginning to gather for Mithalwen. With his vote, he brought it back to a tie between them. At the very least, he has a case to answer. I am also curious about Durelin’s seemingly random vote for Firefoot. She seemed very keen to divert the Village away from the ‘obvious’ suspects, one of whom we now know to have been a Wolf.

And we should not forget littlemanpoet who voted rashly yesterday for someone who I believe is not a Wolf, and who was mildly defended by Mithalwen.

I agree with most of that. The way Gil voted was very suspicious and his defense wasn't that great. I am also slightly suspicous of Durelin. LMP I am not altogether worried about, but I will keep my eyes on him. Regarding Laitaine and Lalaith, well I'll have to read their posts before commenting.

So right now my only real suspects are Gil-Galad and Durelin. Once I reread the two Ls' posts I will comment on them.

[wilwarin538]

Well, I have reread Laitaine and Lalaith's posts and I am now suspicious of them. Reasons are that both of them voted for people who eather didn't have any votes or only had one, it could be that they either suspected those people or wanted to distract attention from Mith. Also in post #68 Saucie made a list of people who had posted but had said very little. Out of those 8 people Lalaith chose to only defend one person, Laitaine.

So you have heard my oppinion, you may hear from me again within the next 2 hours but then after that you wont hear from me for a while. I will be able to vote today.

[Meneltarmacil]

Lalaith doth seem a little suspiciouse, as I mentioned earlier, but I am not that confidente she is a Wolfe. She holdeth seconde place on my suspecte liste.

Gil-Galad, though, is ye moste suspiciouse in mine opinione, due to his vote for Gurthang yesterDaye withoute a cleare reasone after Mithalwen gained ye moste votes. If I had to vote now, I woulde vote for him.

Durelin may be ye Cobbler trying to draw suspicione towarde those who verily are innocente, but she is not as suspiciouse as either of ye others.

So Ye Olde Suspecte Liste goeth as follows:

1. Gil-Galad
2. Lalaith
3. Durelin

[Firefoot]

I had started out thinking that there was probably at least one wolf that had voted for Mithalwen. However, looking at those who voted for her later (I doubt anyone who voted for Mith early is a wolf, for reasons other people have already stated), I don't find myself particularly suspicious of any of them. I feel pretty comfortable with SpM and Arcticstorm, and Dancing Spawn seems pretty innocent to me. I might look twice at Nonnacedak, but I'm not overly suspicious.

So, the rest of villagers are:

LMP - I'm not too concerned about him. He had a valid reason for voting early, and based on what evidence we had at the time, Gurthang was a reasonable choice. He's not completely off my radar, but he's extremely peripheral.

Gil - He is acting very strangely, and his defenses are extremely weak, though I won't go into that too much since other people have pretty much said how I feel. Most confusing to me is his statement that his votes aren't usually how he feels. His vote for Gurthang certainly seems like an attempt to draw attention away from Mith. I have no idea what he is playing at, and his moves seem foolish for either a wolf or a villager.

Durelin - I'm not sure if I'm suspicious of her or not. First she votes for me for no apparent reason. Then she apparently doesn't have anything on me, saying "Late votes are good." Now she claims I'm the were-bear because I don't feel right to her. Um, sure. Besides, she claims Arcticstorm and SpM both are wolves, with both of whom I feel fairly safe. I can't tell if she is a confused innocent or a wolf trying to remove the spotlight to innocents.

Laitaine - I need to hear more from her before I decide anything. I'm only a little suspicious of her, mostly for her odd vote of Alcarillo.

Gurthang - I don't think he's a wolf because it would have been incredibly silly for Mithalwen to be the second person to vote for a fellow wolf when he is the only one with votes. Could be a bluff but I doubt it, as his posts don't seem terribly suspicious to me.

Lalaith - She has the feel of trying to get by under the radar. She hasn't really said a whole lot when she has posted. I don't really know how I feel about her.

Encaitare - I'd like to hear some more from her, though at this point I'm not overly suspicious. I would like to know who she finds suspicious.

Wilwa - I don't really know about her either. I'd like to hear more from her as well.

I've pretty well left the werebear out of my musings since I figure it could be anybody, even someone that I'm pretty comfortable with. I think we'll have to wait and see on that one, though Arctic's theory of Laitaine seems fairly credible to me.

Edit - cross-posting with Wilwa and Menel.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

WereMithalwen said yesterday: My initial instinct is that those who speak first may be eager for a reason. To get in quick with sorrow for the dead and to manipulate opinion.Four first persons to post were Gurthang, Alcarillo, Boromir and Mormegil, respectively. Morm is now proven innocent. Could this mean that the other three can be excused, too, from wolvery (is that a word)?


Nonnacedak has posted only twice. She/he (I'm so sorry, could someone please enlighten me concerning this matter) tried to separate her/himself from the culprits quite fiercely. By Nonnacedak: "I am surrounded by liars and I am but a humble trout fisherman." "Us innocents must filter through the lies to save our poor village!" Nonnacedak was the sixth person to vote Mith, though. I'm suspecting that s/he could be the bear.

But it's Gil who is my main suspect today. He posts very little. Yesterday he posted once to vote for Gurthang but he didn't even give reasons why. He said that his "reasons have already been said by other people". Who? Today he lamented the two deaths and posted two unbelievably flimsy explanations for his actions. Now, is he a wolf, cobbler or neither of those?

One thing that bothers me is Mith suspicions about Lmp being the Seer. She said it twice that she's quite sure about it yet the remaining wolves didn't kill him during the night. Is Lmp one of the wolves?

Random thought of the day: Imagine if Saucy is the bear. He's being so helpful in identifying the wolves. He even said himself: "I agree that it is in the Bear's interests too to kill the Wolves." He'll kill us all when we're not looking.

I see that Lalaith & Laitaine seem suspicious to a few of you. I ponder that theory a bit later.

[Lalaith]

I don't post so much because I like to read and ponder everything that has been said before jumping in with my own ha'porth. And with so many villagers, there is a lot to ponder!
I have my own theories on yesterday's voting which will take time to explain and I will do so later tonight. But I would like to throw in one question for others to ponder (other than my question about the Bear and the Seer which I repeated twice but no-one has answered! )
Anyway, my question is this. I am puzzled by Gurthang's voting yesterday. When he voted he had 3 votes against him, and Mithalwen six. In his shoes, with seven people still left to vote, I would probably have tried to guarantee my survival by voting for Mithalwen. But he didn't, he voted for Durelin. I'm fairly sure Gurthang isn't a wolf but this was a strange thing to do, could he be the Cobbler?

(And a vote against a cat for an animal activist, even more curious!)

[Gurthang]

Originally posted by LMP
my mildly suspicious list:

Boromir: Is too aggressive in his attacks against Gurthang over the in-character animal rights thing.

Encaitare: Points at Gurthang for merely being in character.

littlemanpoet, I just want to point out to you that you voted for me yesterday for about that same reason.

Now, I'm completely confused by CaptainOfDespair, Gil-Galad, and Durelin. CaptainOfDespair's 'lynch me and you'll see' posts are really stumping me. It is true that innocents have died and more will in these proceedings, but that doesn't me you should tell us to kill you, it just doesn't make sense. Gil-Galad voted for me yesterday saying that his reasons were stated by others. And now he is just confusing the heck out of me with his posts. Durelin: I voted for her yesterday because of my suspicion, and today she is also making strange statements and not really going anywhere with her posts.

Yet someone else has come into my spotlight. Nonnacedak. Two out of his three posts seem to have been aimed at saying he's innocent. To quote:

post #37

Us innocents must filter through the lies to save our poor village!

post #135

Let me just say I helped lynch a wolf (which was rather exciting I must admit) and I believe I was 6th or so in the voted for Mith therefore proving my innocence as not being a wolf. I must read over the post's more in depth to point some fingers and help my case.

He did vote 6th for Mith, an unpivotal spot in the voting, especially when many others had already voiced their probable votes for Mith. It wouldn't be a bad spot for a wolf to step in and vote. And the fact that he is making such a big about that 'proving his innocence' makes me even more suspicious of him.

So, my suspect list(since everyone seems to love lists so much ) goes as follows:

1. Nonnacedak
2. Durelin
3. Gil-Galad
4. CaptainOfDespair

[Gurthang]

After just reading Gil-galad's and Boromir's posts, (I cross-posted with both) I am now a little more suspicious of both Gil and CaptainOfDespair. Gil-galad seems to be trying to push the noose over to Captain(which could be the right way to go). The quotes by Captain that Boromir provided also make him seem suspicious.

Those two have moved up some, but I'd like to hear what people think of Nonnacedak.

[Gil-Galad]

woah my dear fellow Gurthang, i said that to quote Homestarrunner...mainly for humour purposes...and it was yo uyourself that said my humour goes unappreciated

[SamwiseGamgee]

I must say, Boromir88, I like your reasonig towards CoD, quite simply because I was in Durelin's little list, but didn't feel the need to lash out like the cap'n. After all, did that dirty blood-drinker Mithalwen not give herself away by protesting rather too much?

If I have to do a suspicion list (I know I don't have to- I just want to! ) I would go for:
1/ CaptainOfDespair
2/ Gil-Galad
3/ Nonnacedak
Those three are in no particular order, though- they're simply the three people I most likely see myself voting for before nightfall.

[Encaitare]

I'm replying as I read the thread, so forgive me if the same points have been addressed by others.

One thing that bothers me is Mith suspicions about Lmp being the Seer. She said it twice that she's quite sure about it yet the remaining wolves didn't kill him during the night. Is Lmp one of the wolves?

LMP could be one of the wolves, since Mith tried to label him as the seer and therefore make us want to keep him alive. Looking back at Mith's posts, it's evident that she was playing pretty boldly, posting a lot but getting very indignant if she was accused. This might have been a trick she hoped would clear a fellow wolf (note might).

Originally Posted by Nonnacedak

Let me just say I helped lynch a wolf (which was rather exciting I must admit) and I believe I was 6th or so in the voted for Mith therefore proving my innocence as not being a wolf.

Having helped lynch a werewolf is not necessarily proof of innocence, as SamwiseGamgee said. It's true that you did opt to vote for the wolf instead of Gurthang, who had the next highest number of votes, but even so -- voting for a wolf does not always mean innocence, and repeating how one has helped lynch a wolf is even worse (cite Eomer in WW7, if such references are permitted).

I looked over SpM's nice little chart of voting stats, and I think it's interesting how the wolves apparently did not try to divert suspicion onto Gurthang after it seemed that Mith was the primary target. If the wolves voted late, perhaps it was too late for them to do so, but it could have been possible when Mith had 6 votes (which was a plateau for some time) and many villagers had not yet voted. Nonnacedak brought Mith's vote count up to six; while she had six votes, these people voted for others:

Originally Posted by SpM

11. Mormegil for Meneltarmacil (Gurthang 3; Mithalwen 6; Firefoot 1; Meneltarmacil 1)
12. Laitaine for Alcarillo (Gurthang 3; Mithalwen 6; Firefoot 1; Meneltarmacil 1; Alcarillo 1)
13. Gurthang for Durelin (Gurthang 3; Mithalwen 6; Firefoot 1; Meneltarmacil 1; Alcarillo 1; Durelin 1)
14. Lalaith for Meneltarmacil (Gurthang 3; Mithalwen 6; Firefoot 1; Meneltarmacil 2; Alcarillo 1; Durelin 1)

If any in this group had been wolves, it would have made more sense to vote for Gurthang rather than those they chose instead, who had only one or two votes. Although the wolves could have decided to give up since Mith was likely to be lyched, it was still early enough to tip the scales.

I therefore am suspicious of Gil, because when Gurthang had 2 votes and Mith had 3, he voted for Gurthang to tie it, possibly hoping that others would bandwagon on Gurthang.

Originally Posted by LMP

Encaitare: Points at Gurthang for merely being in character.

Yes, LMP, I was agreeing with what you said -- remember that you were the one who brought it up. I thought Gurthang's words seemed a little suspicious at first, paired with the fact that he spoke up right away (seemed a little eager to me), but I am no longer suspicious of him.

Originally Posted by CoD

Alcarillo was killed by the bear, but why? Did I vote for Alcarillo? Did I mention him prior to his death in, significant fashion? No.

The Beorning kind of acts randomly, doesn't s/he? It doesn't matter much to him/her who dies -- that's the role. If anything, I'd think the Beorning would try to avoid killing those s/he had mentioned, to separate him/herself from the victim as much as possible.

I'll vote around midnight, I think. I'll be looking at the stars, I suppose. Sometimes they make me feel less lonely...

[Boromir88]

Just another possibility to Lalaith's and Laitane's defense of one another, they could even be the Sheriffs? Or they couldn't who knows.

Four first persons to post were Gurthang, Alcarillo, Boromir and Mormegil, respectively. Morm is now proven innocent. Could this mean that the other three can be excused, too, from wolvery (is that a word)?

Dancing Spawn, don't forget Alcarillo was another innocent.

Also I find your thoughts on Nonnacedek interesting. The sharp defenses of Mithalwen pointed out by Firefoot (post #41) got me mostly in my decision to vote for Mithalwen. Certainly it can be seen as it's the same case for Nonnacedek.

The thing I keep seeing is if someone's accused and they are harsh in their defense they're most likely are guilty. If someone's innocent, and they know they're innocent, there should be nothing to fear. There was the Indian belief where they would heat up an iron bar, and would touch it on the tongue of a suspected liar. If it burned the person he was a liar, if it didn't he was ok. The belief was if you know you're not a liar there shouldn't be nothing to fear, so the saliva in your mouth will stop your tongue from burning (only placed it for not even a second, not like they held it there). But, when you're afraid you don't produce enough saliva, the rod would burn you, then you're a liar. Bottom line is we can't check people's saliva, but those who are harshly defend themselves are afraid of something. Those who know their innocence should not be worried.

[Lalaith]

Aye, fair words you speak, Boromir, but against this I would say, that I have seen cases in villages stricken by tragedies such as ours, where the innocent said nothing, assuming their innocence would cry out to the heavens, but returned after absence or sleep to find their fellows had bandwaggoned against them and they were doomed.
So I will say this, as a last word before my return later tonight, to those who have voiced suspicions against me: that if I am a wolf I am a very stupid one. At the time I voted, Mithalwen the wolf had six votes against her and Gurthang had three. Any fellow wolf with half a brain-cell would do one of two things. He would either decide Mith was doomed anyway and vote for her himself to divert suspicion, or he would try to save her, or at least make a tie, by voting for Gurthang, the only other possible villager who was at risk of lynching. He would not, as I did, vote for someone completely different who had little or no chance of being lynched.

And I would also say that in our haste to put our own words forward, let us not forget closely to study the words of others.

[The Saucepan Man]

I've only time for a brief comment right now. I'll be back in a few hours to elaborate further on what I say below.

Originally Posted by Lalaith

... other than my question about the Bear and the Seer which I repeated twice but no-one has answered!

I had assumed that Oddwen's quick "yes" provided the answer - ie that, if the Seer dreams of the Bear, he or she will be identified to them as the Bear.

Originally Posted by dancing spawn

Random thought of the day: Imagine if Saucy is the bear. He's being so helpful in identifying the wolves.

I'm not.

And here are my thoughts on how we might identify the Bear. The Bear doesn't mind who is lynched during the Day, as long as it is not him (reference to male pronouns to include the female). So it seems to me that it is in the Bear's interests to stir up suspicion and, as subtly as possible, to throw out a fair few accusations, while trying not to act overtly suspicious himself. He will also be looking to jump on any credible ideas on who should be lynched and try to develop them, in order to keep the lynch mob as far away as possible from himself. He will be particularly keen to promote any theories as to who (other than him, of course) might be the Bear.

From what I have observed, the Villager who most fits this pattern of behaviour is CaptainofDespair. I am fairly certain that he is not a Wolf, but I am becoming increasingly suspicious that he may be the Black Beorning. When I come back later, I'll explain why in more detail.

[CaptainofDespair]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

From what I have observed, the Villager who most fits this pattern of behaviour is CaptainofDespair. I am fairly certain that he is not a Wolf, but I am becoming increasingly suspicious that he may be the Black Beorning. When I come back later, I'll explain why in more detail.

Go ahead. Lynch me.

You'll be sorry when my death is shown as a vain enterprise. Then, you'll have another night where two will die.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Originally Posted by CoD

Go ahead. Lynch me.

O these suicidal villagers! Can't you make a case to defend yourself? It would help a tad more in discovering the true culprits.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Originally Posted by Boromir

Just another possibility to Lalaith's and Laitane's defense of one another, they could even be the Sheriffs? Or they couldn't who knows.

I was thinking about that, too.

Dancing Spawn, don't forget Alcarillo was another innocent.

Oh, right, thanks! But this doesn't change my theory. On the contrary, Alcarillo's innocence supports it.

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Any fellow wolf with half a brain-cell would do one of two things.

But we don't know how many brain-cells the beasts have. In other words, it would seem to me that randomness is a perfect disguise because it cannot be tracked down.

[Laitaine]

O Happy Blessed Yesterday, a werewolf fiend was dead
Although they aimed to kill us, it was their time instead!
O Friends Who Thought They Had No Clue, we had our first success
Amplify your efforts so we maintain our progress!
Although we killed one of those fiends, the wolves attack us still
And this time, they have slaughtered our poor precious Mormegil!
Not only that, but that Bear had to kill one of our friends,
That vicious beast has got our barman, brought him to his end!
O Foolish Me, for thinking Alcarillo was a foe
I wish there could have been a better way for us to know!
Perhaps I should explain the vote I cast on yesterday,
I chose at random someone who had not had much to say
Make no mistake, I doubted that my choice would be correct,
I just chanced a wolf would be one we would not suspect

Originally Posted by arcticstorm

As of right now Laitaine is on the top of my suspect list toward the black beorning. She have beleived yesterday that she caught a wolf with Alcarillo and when the villagers didn't agree with her she decided to take the matter up into her own hands. It would be easier for the beorning to take the victory with the wolves out of the way. There would be no possiblity of her being killed at night, and with no partners, not much evidence would be able to be found. So I am guessing that last night she killed who she thought was a wolf. To pave the ground for her victory.
Those are my thoughts on the beorning, more to come later

Clearly my vote was amiss, I’d followed flimsy thought
But I assure you, Noble Friends, ‘twas not my havoc wrought!
Arcticstorm, I must say that your theory is quite wise
But I encourage you to look as from a Beorning’s eyes
Why would the Bear take such a risk and draw such great attention
To kill the very person of which they had just made mention?

I think the Bear would like you all to think that it is me,
For the very reasons Arcticstorm has put so succinctly.
Believe when I say, my friends, that I am not the Bear.
And although my words mean little, listen with great care.
Arcticstorm could be simply trying to pin his guilt on me,
But I do not think this the case--his thoughts run honestly.

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

Saucie made a list of people who had posted but had said very little. Out of those 8 people Lalaith chose to only defend one person, Laitaine.

Lalaith did defend me when my posts took so much time
(You can imagine just how trying it is to speak in rhyme)
But I think that comment was a passing kindness, nothing more
I think Lalaith is just a normal person in this war.

It seems that there’s precious little proof to go on for today,
The only strangeness I observe is Gil’s vague-speaking way.
Of course, I too thought Alcarillo’s quietness was strange
But I was wrong on that account, so can Gil be deranged?

*dabs eyes with hankie*

Whatever is the case, my friends, my life has lost some years
I never thought a werewolf would make off with poor Morm’s ears!

[littlemanpoet]

I've read as far as post 120. Am having a hard time keeping up with this, which I implied in my response to the need for a replacement player.

Gil-Galad seems immature to me, and that's about it. Not particularly suspicious.

Durelin has majorly ratched herself up as suspicious.

Lalaith also seems somewhat suspicious. She kept asking about the Seer/Bear question.

Nonnacedak seems suspicious to me over her "surrounded by liars" comment, but that could be in character.

Boromir's post # 113 seemed like a great diversionary tactic.

WilWarin in post 118 gave some pretty incisive reasoning regading Lalaith & Laitaine. I think she's innocent.

Running out of time here, so:

++ Durelin

I have no idea, by the way, of who has voted for whom. Just thought you should all know that.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

++ CAPTAINOFDESPAIR

For reasons, see Saucy's post #152.
I'm now quite wary of Durelin, too, but I need to be sure if there's something wrong with our Captain.