Tol-in-Gaurhoth IV (The Saga, erm, Still Continues...)

[the phantom]

if somebody volunteers to be slain, then we GUARANTEE that we slaughter an innocent!

We are nearly guaranteed the slaughter of an innocent anyway, it's just that with my plan we won't accidentally kill the seer or somebody like that.

My plan is basically to preserve our gifted villagers for as long as possible. The wolves do not have a very high probability of selecting the seer during the night, and so, if we kill someone who for sure isn't the seer the first two days, then the seer is very likely to survive until day three.

And if the seer survives until day three, he/she will have a nice bit of information for us to use. And if the guardian is still alive as well, the seer will be able to come right out and declare himself/herself and request the guardian's protection thus giving us another dream to base our accusations on.

Our main purpose should be to keep the seer alive until at least day three or four. If we can do that, then there are ways of flushing the wolves out even if the seer has not had any successful dreams.

And honestly, with the population advantage that we currently have, lynching a for-sure innocent today and tomorrow will only take us down to a 10 to 3 advantage, which is where some towns who have been plagued by wolves start off at the beginning. The difference between those towns and ours, though, would be that our seer will have had three dreams to work with.

Numerically, my idea makes sense.

The primary obstacle to the plan is whether or not anyone will volunteer.

[Firefoot]

Except you're still promoting the idea of deliberately lynching an innocent that would not even give us information as to who might be guilty. This would seem to benefit the wolves very much.

And, interestingly enough, according to my very reliable sources (coughcoinflippingcough), phantom is one of our wolves...

[the phantom]

Except you're still promoting the idea of deliberately lynching an innocent that would not even give us information as to who might be guilty.

And how, pray tell, would you get that information?

Who voted for who rarely tells you anything at all. A common villager knows nothing about who is guilty, therefore their vote tells you nothing. Only the vote of a werewolf means anything, and we don't know who the werewolves are.

The only way we might be able to pick out werewolves based on their votes is if we catch one first, which is extremely unlikely. In fact, it is more likely that we will lynch one of our gifted villagers than it is we will lynch a wolf.

Given that fact, it would be a good idea to remove both the wolves and the gifted villagers from consideration on day one, kill an innocent, and allow the seer to gather information during the night. Need I remind you that the seer is the ONLY villager who can ever possess real information?

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Might I remind you that the Seer had a dream last night? The villagers already have information, we're just either not skilled enough to see it, or we haven't been exposed to it yet. Killing an innocent today ups our chances of killing a gifted innocent tomorrow, unless you plan on having an offered sacrifice daily until it's only werewolves left? Somehow I don't see that working well.

[the phantom]

If we leave the vote up chance there is far more chance of us lynching someone important to the village, someone who could be of more help in the werewolf hunt than an inoocent villager.

Yes.

But the main flaw in the plan remains, it is unlikley that there is anyone selfless enough to give up their own life for the wellbeing of the village except those who are more useful alive.

Yes.

Kath seems to have a good understanding of things.

The villagers already have information

Not enough- yet.

Killing an innocent today ups our chances of killing a gifted innocent tomorrow, unless you plan on having an offered sacrifice daily

1) Even if it ups our chances of killing one tomorrow, it lessens our chances of killing one today. That's not really an argument.
2) I do intend on offering a daily sacrifice.

But before you freak out, I'm only suggesting two- one today and one tomorrow. As I said earlier, if the seer and guardian make it through the first two days and nights alive then we will be in excellent shape and still have a significant advantage in numbers.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

What's the point of the villagers winning, if you leave none left to celebrate?

[the phantom]

What's the point of the villagers winning, if you leave none left to celebrate?

That query is so nonsensical I can barely begin to answer it.

It doesn't matter who is left alive at the end as long as none of them are wolves. The ultimate positive outcome for a villager is for the village to win, so if the village wins nothing else matters!

Please remain silent if you can only ask questions like that.

[littlemanpoet]

Phew! I'm free at last from my day at the shop,
and find the boards already at a hop!
Plans a flinging accusations flying,
and just one guy singing while trying
to lie, did you notice the tongue slip
of ol' Eomer, in his little quip
which I'll quote:

I accuse Lalaith. She's always been pretty quiet and suspicious in my mind. Also, I'm sure I saw her one Autumn eve a few years back, stealing through the trees with a malicious glint in my eye.

D'you notice the goof he wrote?
Trying on Lalaith to cast suspicion,
he accuses himself with his malediction!
His words I've bolded.
With his own lips he's told it.

'Course I could be wrong,
but I might be right!
the phantom's plan is strong,
but what wight
will say lynch me
seriously?

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Good observation lmp, but isn't the aim of the game to find werewolves and not make me look like an idiot?

The malicious glint in my eye is entirely different from a werewolf's.

phantom, you seem very sceptical of voting patterns telling us things. Why so? Fallacious reasoning in voting can tell us oodles. Say littlemanpoet votes for me based on my previous mistake (which, of course, he won't because he's no fool). If he votes for me it should be based on other things (ruffling of feathers, perhaps?) but not on so silly a thing.

And werewolves can let their guard down and make vital mistakes. So let's keep our eyes peeled.

[the phantom]

Why would you put your words into verse
when you can speak frankly, simple, and terse?
This is not the place for artistic expression,
we have wolves to catch, this is not a poetry session!
Poetry is at best an annoyance,
to glean from it meaning requires clairvoyance
What I'm trying to say should be terribly clear-
we do not want you silly poems here!

[the phantom]

Fea, you're going to get yourself lynched.

Our gifted villagers are a perk, nothing more. They are just as expendable as anyone else.

An absurd statement.

So what if the Seer dies?

The most absurd statement I've ever seen.

Though we may mourn the loss of our gifted members, their deaths will not be as severely detrimental as intentionally killing people that we know aren't werewolves!

Wrong. The numbers are against you. Removing wolves and gifted villagers from the lynch pool is a statistical advantage at this stage in the game. If you add them to the lynch pool, the chances of killing a gifted villager are greater than killing a wolf, therefore it is a statistical advantage for the wolves in that it would increase the chances of their primary foes being killed.

I see it only as saying "Well, we know for certain that you are innocent, so we'll kill you, instead of the sketchy looking guy over there."

What "sketchy looking guy"? Where is he? Can anyone point him out?

No.

Everyone will look equally sketchy to innocents because innocents know nothing. As a matter of fact, it is likely that the wolves will purposefully behave in such a way that they appear to be the LEAST SKETCHY. Duh.

At this point I am almost willing to abandon my plan and lynch Fea just for being extremely silly.

I mean, honestly Fea! You said "So what if the seer dies?"! Who says stuff like that? You, Fea, are definitely the most "sketchy" looking person thus far. If you are a gifted villager I would recommend that you quit acting like this, because it's going to get you lynched.

Unless, of course, Fea is acting like this on purpose knowing she will get lynched?

Perhaps she is sacrificing herself and agrees with my plan after all?

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Kath - I'm watching you.

The joke had passed yet you felt the need to bring my name up again? Hoom hroom indeed.

This is exactly the fallacious reasoning I was talking about. lmp was clearly joking; I don't think you were.

If innocent then you should realise this and post it. You cannot suggest me on such evidence; we need hard evidence.

Like the malevolent glint in Lalaith's eye. Let her speak!

phantom, you posted that 'joke' earlier, which suggested hostility at lmp. Such a strange post, as it added nothing to the discussion. So unlike such a wise man as yourself. Tell me, what was the purpose of this? Now is not the time for jokes: an innocent man died last night!!!

As for your hostility towards Fea: it's completely justified. She's mad, I tells ye. String her up!

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by the phantom

What "sketchy looking guy"? Where is he? Can anyone point him out?

*points to the guy that's trying his best to knowingly kill innocent people and make it look like he's doing it for their own good*

How is it that I am making myself look guilty by trying to make people see that killing off people that we know are innocent will not help us in the long run? Isn't it better to take a chance and maybe kill a werewolf, instead of give up all hope at this stage of the proceedings and immediately start killing off the good guys?

How is it that people are agreeing with the phantom's hair-brained "let's just get volunteers to die" idea? The idea is that we don't want innocent people to die! It doesn't matter if the person is a seer or if the person is an identity-less villager, that person is still innocent, and we aren't supposed to be killing the good guys!

As a matter of fact, it is likely that the wolves will purposefully behave in such a way that they appear to be the LEAST SKETCHY. Duh.

Unless they are playing us with a mult-layered bluff, dullard. Where is the best place to hide? Out in the open.

Perhaps she is sacrificing herself and agrees with my plan after all?

God, tp, what part of "This is the stupidest idea I've ever heard" don't you understand?

At this point I am almost willing to abandon my plan and lynch Fea just for being extremely silly.

And at this point, I'm almost entirely willing to lynch the phantom, just because he's so insistant that we kill innocent villagers on purpose. What kind of innocent person does that?

As for your hostility towards Fea: it's completely justified. She's mad, I tells ye. String her up!

Either you're both insane, or you're both werewolves. Quite honestly, I hope you both die, just because it would make me feel better. Tell me how it's justifiable to be hostile toward somebody who is trying to keep her village from making a terrible (and really stupid) mistake?

Push my buttons more, tp, Eomer, and I'm going to start a campaign against you. What in the world has happened when logic means killing innocent people while werewolves run free?

[Celuien]

Volunteers for lynching??? That's one line that won't be too long.

Something else that's occured to me with this plan is that once someone volunteers, they've effectively given the biggest "Look - I'm an innocent" sign that they could possibly put forward. I don't know about the rest of the village, but I would be very hesitant to lynch a volunteer. And that could provide cover for the wolves if they see it as a way to declare innocence and also see a low probability of the rest of the town taking up the offer. Furthermore, if we follow through on lynching volunteers, an innocent does volunteer every day, and then is lynched every day, it just depletes the population of villagers and keeps us from lynching a real wolf.

Féa's saying that gifted villagers are expendable doesn't quite sit well with me. It's not enough to raise my suspicions with any certainty though...

[Kath]

And here I thought that our main purpose was to kill werewolves.

This is true Fea but the phantoms point remains true. If we leave the vote up chance there is far more chance of us lynching someone important to the village, someone who could be of more help in the werewolf hunt than an inoocent villager.

But the main flaw in the plan remains, it is unlikley that there is anyone selfless enough to give up their own life for the wellbeing of the village except those who are more useful alive.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

No-one's going to offer themselves up except you phantom. Unless of course, you're................a wolf!

Just kidding. I realise that you may very well be the Seer, Guardian or whatever.

Anyway, too much emphasis on plans and methods. Let's just watch the accusations and voting patterns. We can work out the problem. Sure, some of us are going to die in the process but we can do it.

Case in point: I accuse Lalaith. She's always been pretty quiet and suspicious in my mind. Also, I'm sure I saw her one Autumn eve a few years back, stealing through the trees with a malicious glint in my eye. Course, you all said I was crazy back then: "Crazy ol' Eomer, one too many drams agin'!"

Well, don't say I didn't warn ye. Keep an eye on that lass. And Anguirel too.

[Hookbill the Goomba]

Alas for the poor stouted fellow.

We have a 17.6% chance of picking a wolf. It would be nice to get one, but the odds say we won't.

We have a 29.4% chance of picking either the seer, the ranger, the hunter, or one of our two sheriffs. We definitely don't want to lynch one of them.

We have a 52.9% chance of picking an innocent villager.

Hum... I don't like those odds. As for the "17.6%", will that decrease, as W-Ws are eliminated? I'd hate to think what it would be like if we managed to get all bar one of the W-Ws... We might be here for weeks!

And Firefoot, coin flipping is, in fact, the best kind of determining anything! At least, I think so anyway...

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Our main purpose should be to keep the seer alive until at least day three or four.

And here I thought that our main purpose was to kill werewolves. What could I have been thinking?

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

It's outrageous thinking like that that's gonna get you slain, m'dear!