Tol-in-Gaurhoth IV (The Saga, erm, Still Continues...)

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

What's the point of waiting, Celuien? It's not like the werewolves are going to take two steps forward from a long line of villagers and shout "Hey y'all, you should lynch US!" Our best bet is to randomly pick (although don't do what I did... the first time I closed my eyes and pointed to the list on the screen, I opened my eyes to find that I was preparing to accuse myself!).

My point is that, since we have no way of knowing, at least until our seer shows up, and let's hope we don't misunderstand his or her message , all we can go on is random accusations and observations of people's reactions to said accusations. I still say let's beat on Spawn a little. It's not like we have anyone better to accuse. *no offence, Spawny m'dear* Once we see who allies themselves with who, as well as who accuses who and why, and factoring out old grudges and that sort of thing that could sway a vote... then we can start to really figure things out. Until we've got a lot of useless gibberish being sent back and forth, we can't know who's paws are stained scarlet with TGWBS's blood.

[the phantom]

Fea is somewhat correct. Here on this first day we are pretty much shooting in the dark.

However, I don't believe that we should just pick a target and pull the trigger.

I suggest that someone volunteer to be lynched.

Yes, you read that right.

Besides wolves, this village has special individuals who can help us to find wolves, and we want to be sure and not lynch them today.

We have a 17.6% chance of picking a wolf. It would be nice to get one, but the odds say we won't.

We have a 29.4% chance of picking either the seer, the ranger, the hunter, or one of our two sheriffs. We definitely don't want to lynch one of them.

We have a 52.9% chance of picking an innocent villager.

Since the odds say we will pick an innocent villager, I suggest that one of them step forward and volunteer to be lynched. That will ensure that we do not lynch one of our gifted villagers, and also we just might kill the cursed villager (which would be a blow to the wolves).

So, if you are an innocent villager without any special abilities and you also think you might be in and out of town a bit and thus not able to participate in our werewolf finding endeavor that much- then perhaps the greatest thing you can do for this village is to volunteer to be lynched today.

Anyone?

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

What a fantastic idea, phantom. Here's a better one: if it's the smartest, greatest, most logical, and best thing to sacrifice your innocent self for the good of the village, why don't you volunteer for it yourself?

EDIT: Oh, and now that I think of it more, that's a terrible idea. No offense or anything. Let me explain why your idea sounds wolfish to me:

When we cast our votes today, we have a disturbingly high chance of slaughtering an innocent. As bad as that is... if somebody volunteers to be slain, then we GUARANTEE that we slaughter an innocent! Why in the world would we want to make absolute certain that we are killing a non-wolf villager? What the heck is the point of it? It will leave us back to square one, only tomorrow morning, instead of one villager slain by wolves and one villager maybe lynched, we'll have two dead innocents, and the only new information we'll have is who the werewolves decided to kill. We're going to have that no matter what, so why, I ask, do you think it's a good idea to make absolutely certain that we kill somebody innocent?

[the phantom]

why don't you volunteer for it yourself?

I see that you ignored one of the requirements for someone to volunteer themselves-

...and you also think you might be in and out of town a bit and thus not able to participate in our werewolf finding endeavor that much

I don't meet that requirement. I will be in town and active every day.

It would be much better to lynch an innocent who might be absent a lot because, as you know, if someone is gone too long then they are automatically killed anyway.

More listening and less talking my dear.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Right. It's still a horrible idea. Read my edit to see why.

[Firefoot]

The problem with this method is that we are guaranteed to be lynching an innocent, as, obviously, a wolf won't volunteer to be lynched. Also, we won't learn anything by it as we would all be voting for the same person this way and we won't have people's responses to judge. We won't have gotten anywhere and will be in virtually the same spot tomorrow.

Edit: Basically what Fea said in her edit...

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Well, well, well. First things first: send for the cleaner!

I always liked the dwarf. Oftentimes we would drink rum into the wee hours. Course! he would always end the occasions; always wanting to study a bit before bedtime. Improves the learning, don't you know? A clever little fellow and no mistake. I'll miss him.

But 'ere we have an idea to flush out these beasts, proposed by the phantom. 'Tis an interesting one and no mistake. Only problem I have is this: no one wants to die! I certainly will not offer myself up to be executed like a common thief. I've dodged that before and I'll do it again. No, no, no sir; we got ourselves werewolves to hang, not our friendly villagers.

If anyone else wants to offer hisself up for sacrifice then go ahead; I'll let you know right now that it ain't going to be me. I guess some among you will take that stance as hard evidence of my wolfish ways, but so be it. I'm selfish; deal with it.

As for the wolves, I have me suspects: that Anguirel for one. He's a trickster and no mistake. Oftentimes I wish I had his certain way with skullduggery. A wicked wordsmith, no doubt. Sure, he has a high place in the village, but what better place to keep silent?

But then, I have a lot of suspects. Oooh, I think I need some rum and fresh air to sort this one out.

Hang on, wouldn't it be a good idea to search the houses of every villager? You never know, we might find some wolf hair tangled on the door, or odd saliva hither and thither. Just a thought.

Forth!

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Originally Posted by Fea

If it wasn't the butler, let's blame the maid. ... I still say let's beat on Spawn a little.

Well, that's just nice. I should have listened to my mother and gone to law school. As an innocent, I'm rather disinclined to die in spite of phantom's probability calculation.

It's true that the wolves don't probably care, who is going to get lynced on the first day as long as s/he isn't one of them and therefore we can't point them out by their behaviour. However, the Seer might have something interesting to say. I'd also like to see other residents participating the negotiations before we decide anything drastic.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

*looks abashed*

Yes, sorry about that Spawn. You just happened to be the second person that I randomly picked.

I have to agree with Eomer also... even if we weren't guaranteeing ourselves two dead innocents, nobody really wants to die, so nobody is going to step out and say "Hey, lynch me!" Except me. You can lynch me if you really feel the need to. Means I can get back to my drawing in peace.

PS: just kidding about that lynching thing

[the phantom]

if somebody volunteers to be slain, then we GUARANTEE that we slaughter an innocent!

We are nearly guaranteed the slaughter of an innocent anyway, it's just that with my plan we won't accidentally kill the seer or somebody like that.

My plan is basically to preserve our gifted villagers for as long as possible. The wolves do not have a very high probability of selecting the seer during the night, and so, if we kill someone who for sure isn't the seer the first two days, then the seer is very likely to survive until day three.

And if the seer survives until day three, he/she will have a nice bit of information for us to use. And if the guardian is still alive as well, the seer will be able to come right out and declare himself/herself and request the guardian's protection thus giving us another dream to base our accusations on.

Our main purpose should be to keep the seer alive until at least day three or four. If we can do that, then there are ways of flushing the wolves out even if the seer has not had any successful dreams.

And honestly, with the population advantage that we currently have, lynching a for-sure innocent today and tomorrow will only take us down to a 10 to 3 advantage, which is where some towns who have been plagued by wolves start off at the beginning. The difference between those towns and ours, though, would be that our seer will have had three dreams to work with.

Numerically, my idea makes sense.

The primary obstacle to the plan is whether or not anyone will volunteer.

[Firefoot]

Except you're still promoting the idea of deliberately lynching an innocent that would not even give us information as to who might be guilty. This would seem to benefit the wolves very much.

And, interestingly enough, according to my very reliable sources (coughcoinflippingcough), phantom is one of our wolves...

[the phantom]

Except you're still promoting the idea of deliberately lynching an innocent that would not even give us information as to who might be guilty.

And how, pray tell, would you get that information?

Who voted for who rarely tells you anything at all. A common villager knows nothing about who is guilty, therefore their vote tells you nothing. Only the vote of a werewolf means anything, and we don't know who the werewolves are.

The only way we might be able to pick out werewolves based on their votes is if we catch one first, which is extremely unlikely. In fact, it is more likely that we will lynch one of our gifted villagers than it is we will lynch a wolf.

Given that fact, it would be a good idea to remove both the wolves and the gifted villagers from consideration on day one, kill an innocent, and allow the seer to gather information during the night. Need I remind you that the seer is the ONLY villager who can ever possess real information?

[Kath]

And here I thought that our main purpose was to kill werewolves.

This is true Fea but the phantoms point remains true. If we leave the vote up chance there is far more chance of us lynching someone important to the village, someone who could be of more help in the werewolf hunt than an inoocent villager.

But the main flaw in the plan remains, it is unlikley that there is anyone selfless enough to give up their own life for the wellbeing of the village except those who are more useful alive.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

No-one's going to offer themselves up except you phantom. Unless of course, you're................a wolf!

Just kidding. I realise that you may very well be the Seer, Guardian or whatever.

Anyway, too much emphasis on plans and methods. Let's just watch the accusations and voting patterns. We can work out the problem. Sure, some of us are going to die in the process but we can do it.

Case in point: I accuse Lalaith. She's always been pretty quiet and suspicious in my mind. Also, I'm sure I saw her one Autumn eve a few years back, stealing through the trees with a malicious glint in my eye. Course, you all said I was crazy back then: "Crazy ol' Eomer, one too many drams agin'!"

Well, don't say I didn't warn ye. Keep an eye on that lass. And Anguirel too.

[Hookbill the Goomba]

Alas for the poor stouted fellow.

We have a 17.6% chance of picking a wolf. It would be nice to get one, but the odds say we won't.

We have a 29.4% chance of picking either the seer, the ranger, the hunter, or one of our two sheriffs. We definitely don't want to lynch one of them.

We have a 52.9% chance of picking an innocent villager.

Hum... I don't like those odds. As for the "17.6%", will that decrease, as W-Ws are eliminated? I'd hate to think what it would be like if we managed to get all bar one of the W-Ws... We might be here for weeks!

And Firefoot, coin flipping is, in fact, the best kind of determining anything! At least, I think so anyway...

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Our main purpose should be to keep the seer alive until at least day three or four.

And here I thought that our main purpose was to kill werewolves. What could I have been thinking?

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

It's outrageous thinking like that that's gonna get you slain, m'dear!