Tol-in-Gaurhoth III (The Saga Continues...)

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

No scattered votes this time; the village had two main suspects, and by one vote it was decided that the phantom should be put to death.

He was indignant about this turn of events. When the townspeople came to hang him, he refused.

I won't give up my life without a fight he said coldly.

The villagers looked at each other, and then advanced on him. He stood up and braced himself for combat. That was enough to make the villagers leap towards him, pinning him to the ground.

But he fought like a man possessed, like a wild animal! He was wounding his fellows with his teeth and his fists. It took several minutes to keep him still. Tying him up was also very difficult, but they managed.

They led him to the gallows, but he almost broke free! So furious was he at this, the end of his life. Beast! they cried, Wolf! Curse you for what you have done! And the phantom did not argue (for a change). He merely stared at the villagers with hatred in his eyes, having been tied up with more rope.

Here was a werewolf thought the village.

And so the executioner (not without pleasure) did pull the lever, and the phantom fell, and another neck of the village had been snapped.

But his body just swayed in the wind.

At this sight, the wolves hidden in the audience laughed hidden laughs to themselves. Another innocent had been killed by his fellows.


Living:

Azaelia of Willowbottom
Firefoot
Fordim Hedgethistle
Holbytlass
Kuruharan
mormegil
Oddwen
Shelob
The Only Real Estel
The Saucepan Man

Dead:

Eomer of the Rohirrim (Villager) - mangled by werewolves on NIGHT 1
Evisse the Blue (Seer) - lynched by villagers on DAY 1
the guy who be short (Villager) - decapitated by werewolves on NIGHT 2
Son of Numenor (Villager) - lynched by villagers on DAY 2
the phantom (Villager) - lynched by villagers on DAY 3

Score:

Werewolves: 3 (?)
Villagers 7 (?)


NIGHT 4 has started, now that it is 4PM GMT (that's 11AM EST) and (10AM Central). It will end in 24 hours or sooner if all night-time activity is reported to me by then.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

The villagers had become disciplined; awakening early and scrambling to the Town Hall as soon they were dressed. They needed to know what had happened during the night. On the night before last nothing had happened, but it swiftly became apparent that the Werewolves had not been denied a feast under the next moon.

Firefoot was missing.

O no, O dear! the villagers cried as they raced to her house. Firefoot owned the stable, a large friendly-looking home that was arguably the favourite destination of any tourists and travellers to Storyland. Firefoot's horses were known throughout the land.

But the villagers had already implicitly realised that money from tourism was going to be a record low this year. And the murder of Firefoot was probably the most gruesome yet: her horses had been slaughtered in the stable, and Firefoot had been drowned in a trough filled with blood.

The villagers quailed, and staggered out of the house. But one observant person noted something lying on a large round table: a book with fresh ink. It was some sort of diary.

Reading through the book, one particular passage stood out, as it had been written in a furious hurry of excitement, and was quite messy. It read thus:

My endeavours have not been in vain: I saved a villager. My spells are bewildering to others, and hardly tangible even to me, but I just know that the person was saved. I felt it in my bones that night. I helped, even in the slightest way, in the fight against this outrageous foe.

The villagers felt even sadder now. Certainly Firefoot was magical and some people had even supposed that she was a witch (similar to Evisse really), but they didn't realise how powerful she had been. She was their guardian, and she had saved a villager from the wolves. It was good to know that they had got lucky, and that there were only 3 werewolves terrorising them. However, with very little in the way of help left to them, they knew that they had to get their act together, and kill some wolves before it was too late.


Living:

Azaelia of Willowbottom
Fordim Hedgethistle
Holbytlass
Kuruharan
mormegil
Oddwen
Shelob
The Only Real Estel
The Saucepan Man

Dead:

Eomer of the Rohirrim (Villager) - mangled by werewolves on NIGHT 1
Evisse the Blue (Seer) - lynched by villagers on DAY 1
the guy who be short (Villager) - decapitated by werewolves on NIGHT 2
Son of Numenor (Villager) - lynched by villagers on DAY 2
the phantom (Villager) - lynched by villagers on DAY 3
Firefoot (Guardian) - drowned in blood by werewolves on NIGHT 4

Score:

Werewolves: 3
Villagers: 6


DAY 4 has started, now that it is around 3:15 PM GMT (that's 10:15 AM EST) and (9:15 AM Central). It will end in 24 hours or sooner if a majority vote is reached before then.

[The Saucepan Man]

It is sad indeed that we are faced with the death of such an important member of our community. Unfortunately, since she seems to have been very low on most people’s list of suspects (and she was certainly low down on mine), it does not surprise me that the Werewolves went for her. And now it turns out that she was our Guardian. Well, at least she was able to protect one of our number from a grisly death. We should review our previous days’ discussions and see what accusations have been made against her, but I suspect that they are few in number. We should also look to see who she suspected the least, since she would no doubt have sought to protect one who she thought to be innocent.

In the meantime, I have a few thoughts that I would like to share with the village.

I should first say, in case anyone asks, that the reason that I voted last yesterday was twofold. First, I wanted to make sure that there was no tie in the voting, resulting in the death of two innocent Villagers. And secondly, if I was to be lynched, there were a few things that I wanted to say by way of a last message from a Villager whose innocence would have been established shortly thereafter.

As I indicated on a number of occasions yesterday, the phantom was never top of my suspect list. I had no great suspicion of him before yesterday (and even defended him on a number of occasions), and the only basis that I really had for suspecting him yesterday was the way that he went into overdrive in trying to defend himself. I would have preferred to have voted for another candidate, but in the end was given no real choice. Because of the way that the village acted yesterday, it came down to a question of him or me. Moreover, by the time I actually voted, any vote other than for the phantom would have resulted in both he and I being lynched, which would have resulted in the deaths of two innocent Villagers.

Which bring me to my main point. I hope that everyone can see that the entire proceedings yesterday were carefully (and masterfully, I might say) orchestrated to push the village in a certain direction. Very early on, a “shortlist” was identified for lynching. And it was put forward on a very logical basis. It comprised all of those who had voted for both Evisse and SoN.

The names on the list were the phantom, The Saucepan Man and The Only Real Estel. I now know that the phantom was innocent. I am also now pretty much convinced that The Only Real Estel is innocent, on the basis that he could have eliminated both Evisse and the phantom on Day 1 had he wanted to (which would have been a good Werewolf tactic, whatever the phantom may have said yesterday). And I know that I am innocent. I obviously don’t expect everyone blindly to accept that, but I hope that what I say below will go some way towards convincing those of you who are also innocent.

So, at least two, and probably three, of the names on this “shortlist” were those of innocent Villagers. How more ideal could it be for the Werewolves? As long as they could persuade the village to concentrate on at least two of those names, they would be free from any risk of being lynched and guarantee that an innocent Villager was killed at the end of the day. They might even succeed in lynching two innocents but, if not, there would still be prime suspects for lynching the next day (since, if the plan worked, each Villager on the list would end up voting for one of the others, ie an innocent).

So what happened yesterday? Well, the Werewolves concentrated their efforts on the phantom and me. They worked tirelessly through the day, first making sure that consideration remained focussed on the two of us and, secondly, in making sure that every Villager voted for one or other of us. We now know that there were three Werewolves operating that day. I believe that one took responsibility for keeping the focus on me, while the other two gunned for the phantom. Since, following the preceding days’ events, I was already high on most people’s list of suspects, it would not take so much effort to persuade people to vote for me. The phantom would require a little more effort (and probably more subtlety). They did not really mind which one of us was lynched, as long as it was one of us. The other could wait until the next day, they would have thought. It might have been the other way round, but I believe that one Werewolf went for, and voted for, me, while the other two went for, and voted for, the phantom.

Their plan worked pretty well too. I suspect that they didn’t really go for The Only Real Estel, because it was easier to concentrate peoples’ minds on two names, and easier to ensure that the phantom would vote for me and vice versa. And go for me and the phantom, they certainly did, succeeding in limiting the discussion to the two of us very early on and ultimately achieving a fairly even distribution of votes between the two of us (so no particular suspicion would attach for the Wolf or Wolves that voted for the one that ended up being lynched).

But it did not go entirely their own way. In limiting the eventual “shortlist” to two names, they hoped that the phantom and I would direct our energies towards taking each other out. That way, the survivor would be heavily implicated when the other was lynched and his innocence proved. The phantom fell for it and went for me in a big way. But I would not play along. I made no direct accusations and made clear on a number of occasions that I was not convinced of the phantom’s guilt. Kuruharan tried to suggest that I had implicated the phantom but, as I pointed out, given the two Villager shortlist, anything that I said in my defence would indirectly implicate the phantom. I most certainly did not “go for him” in any big way. And I am glad that I didn’t take the bait. It is perhaps one of the few right decisions that I have made in this game up until now, and it possibly means that suspicion may not be focused on me today quite as much as the Werewolves would have liked (or at least I hope so).

Now, I appreciate that what I have said largely assumes my own innocence and that there will be those amongst the remaining innocent Villagers who do not necessarily accept that I am innocent. But I would ask you to review everything that happened yesterday with an open mind and tell me that it does not make sense as a perfect Werewolfian strategy. And I think that you will also see that there were a number of people who were deliberately “herding” the village, first towards focussing on just two names and then towards voting for one or other of them.

Based on the above, I now have a pretty good idea of who two of the Werewolves are and strong suspicions as to the identity of the third. But, before naming any names myself, I would be interested to hear what the other Villagers have to say.

[Kuruharan]

He's at it again.

Firefoot's death nonwithstanding, my opinion of The Saucepan Man has not changed in the least.

I hardly need point out that he has been wrong every single time in this game. And as I said the other DAY, he was edging toward hanging the phantom. I suggested we should do something else just on general principle.

Guess what, he was wrong again.

And I am glad that I didn’t take the bait.

But you did take the bait. You voted for him.

And I think that you will also see that there were a number of people who were deliberately “herding” the village, first towards focussing on just two names and then towards voting for one or other of them.

Go ahead and lynch me then. We have one last bit of margin for error before we hit critical mass. Snapping my head off should put some sense into the others (although you probably do still have those hooks through people's jaws).

I'll have more later this afternoon.

[The Saucepan Man]

Nice to see that you are as open minded as ever, Kuru.

Originally Posted by Kuru

But you did take the bait. You voted for him.

Did you read what I said? In my position, anyone would have voted the way that I did, whether they were a Werewolf or an innocent Villager. My vote for the phantom establishes nothing. As I said, I would have preferred to have voted for someone else, but I wasn't given that opportunity, thanks to the Werewolves' stage management of yesterday's proceedings.

Go ahead and lynch me then.

I didn't name any names ...

Edit: To clarify, by not taking the bait, I meant not going all out against the phantom as a knee-jerk reaction to the Werewolves' two Villager shortlist.

Edit 2:

Originally Posted by Kuru

I hardly need point out that he has been wrong every single time in this game.

So have you, actually ...

[Holbytlass]

I know I suggested the short-list of Phantom and SaucepanMan (post 190).
I was stating the obvious because at least one, if not both, are high on everyone's suspect list. So it just stood to reason to vote on these two.
It forced those of us (myself included) to not 'chicken-out' as Kuru put it,
and for information's sake gave the village a clearer view on where people stood.

Now I explain my vote...I believed Phantom's theory on SaucepanMan and Estel. I believed that Phantom's rantings were one of desperation of being innocent and not wanting to be lynched. And now his death proved his innocence.
I would expect SaucepanMan to do the same today. He is still high on my list and Estel.

It is a crying shame we lost our guardian. But at least we know she saved one of us and we are still dealing with 3 wolves not 4.

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

Oh dear…why do I think that I may be one of the names on Saucy’s secret list…?

All right, so we’ve lynched another innocent. I wish we hadn’t but I still think that The Phantom was a better choice than The Saucepan Man insofar as we will have the benefit of his more penetrating (and understandable) posts as we close in on the wolves. Because all evidence to the contrary I do believe that we can begin to close in on the fiends, finally.

It’s become clear to me, at least, that there are currently two kinds of people in the village: the verbose and the quiet. In the verbose camp we have myself, Sauce, Estel, mormegil, and Kuruharan. I daresay that at the moment, these are also the people who are drawing, and who will draw, the most suspicion. In the quiet camp we have Holbytlass, Oddwen, Shelob and Azaelia. These villagers are coming under the least suspicion. (I would have put Firefoot in this list but with her gone she is no longer on any list but that of brave innocents.)

Now, the first thing I’d like to point out about these lists is that they represent a gender split: talkative, blabbing, blathering and loudmouthed men on the one side, and more guarded, careful, thoughtful women on the other. The second thing I’d like to say is that men, I think we’re in a lot of trouble…

Here’s my theory…

If I were a wolf, I would be faced with two options in the early rounds of voting: speak out vocally and try to get an innocent hanged or duck for cover and wait for the villagers to lynch one another. To this point, I had no way of assessing which strategy might be the one adopted by the current crop of wolves, but after yesterday’s fireworks I think that we have some fuzzy beasts of the more quiet variety. Not only did we kill the most verbose and outspoken member of the loudmouthed male camp only to discover that he was an innocent, but the other members of that club worked very very hard to try and get other members of that camp strung up. Seems to me that if there is more than one wolf in this group, this is a very foolish way to behave. While this was going on, the quieter, more thoughtful (and more feminine) members of the village did what they had been doing all along and sat back while the men tore at one another. To be sure, they did vote, but they were not really active in the debate – nor did they need to be, what with the loudmouths doing such a good job of stringing up yet another innocent.

So my attention is now firmly shifting to those other members of the village. In particular I’m taking a much closer look at their voting records….

Holbytlass, Oddwen and Shelob have spread their votes around. In the first two rounds they never voted for the same name: only in the third round did both did Oddwen and Holbytlass vote together, and this time against Saucy – this seems suspicious to me, as it would appear that they wanted to keep TP around: which makes sense as he was one of the loudest mouths and was haranguing everyone with his theories in which the wolves were other loudmouths. In all three rounds the only one of these three to cast a vote against another was [b]Oddwen[b] against Holbytlass. As that is the only vote Holby has ever received, and no-one has really argued terribly hotly for her to be hanged, that would not really be a dangerous thing to do. Particularly in the second round when the loudmouths (myself included) really took charge and began going after one another.

More evidence against them: Firefoot is dead – she was the logical choice for this group to pick and believe me or not but I had decided that if she were the one to go, I would be convinced that my theory is correct. She had the least suspicion against her, but she was voting with the loudmouths on each round (against me in the first round, Sono in the second and TP in the third). Killing her is a good way of getting rid of an innocent without tipping their hands (paws) insofar as she has never accused them so it would not look like retribution. More importantly it allows them to keep the real loudmouths alive. If I were a smart, quiet, wolf, I would never want to see Kuru, SpM, TORE or me dead, insofar as they are doing a very good job of killing off each other and giving me a free ride. I would have learned from Azaeilia’s example that one can be utterly invisible and survive quite nicely.

My final piece of evidence is the attempt to frame me with the first werewolf killing. That was obviously designed to get the loudmouths going against one another. TGWBS and I were probably the two most vocal, and the other loudmouths soon joined in. The frame-up was never meant to work, insofar as getting me hanged, it was just meant to stir the pot. And stir it did.

So the obvious question is: how can I explain this sudden turn in my thinking? To this point I’ve been gunning for loudmouths myself and here I am now, suddenly making a wolfish-looking switch. I can only say that while I had my suspicions of this yesterday, I did not have nearly as much reason to follow those as I did my arguments against TP. But three things happened to convince me that I’ve been wrong all along:

1) TP was innocent

2) The loudmouths spent all their energy accusing each other; a stupid thing for werewolves to do

3) Firefoot was killed

I did not want to float this theory yesterday as it is based on the theory that the wolves are hiding: to let them know that I was looking at them before I was sure of who they were would have been foolish.

So that’s were I am at now. And this time, Kuru, I am willing to be as certain as you would like in my assertions. At least two of Oddwen, Holbytlass and Shelob are wolves. For my money, the best bets are Oddwen and Holbytlass.

[mormegil]

Wow! The phantom was innocent. I now have a lot of self-doubt about my ability to select a guilty person. I was so convinced since day 1 that I think I let my pride blind me into not looking at many other options. Though I did come very close to voting for SpM--so you're efforts weren't in vain Kuru. Though I'm still not 100% convinced of his guilt either.

I would like to hear some arguements and opinions of those who have remained a bit more reserved so all really except myself, SpM and Kuru. I know that Fordim and TORE have spoken some but I would really like to hear what you have to think now. Not to say I don't want to hear from the others I just know their current arguements.

I know that I am probably top on people's suspicion list and I accept that and would suspect me if I were in your shoes. I do point out that Firefoot suspected him a great deal as well. Look at my arguements against him and see if there is not at least a little merit in them. My hope and prayer is that we catch a wolf tonight to help even out the numbers a bit.

I await the response of those I have requested.

[The Saucepan Man]

I am glad that not all the Villagers' minds are as closed as Kuru's.

Originally Posted by Fordim

Oh dear…why do I think that I may be one of the names on Saucy’s secret list…?

Not necessarily, my dear Fordim. Clearly, you were the one who first identified the 3 Villager "shortlist". But it would not necessarily have been in the Werewolves' best interests to identify it so publicly and obviously.

I am interested in your theory, Fordim, as I have been troubled by the "quiet ones" too. I am pretty sure that at least one of them is a Werewolf, but my theory tends to suggest two loudmouths and one quiet one.

Interesting that you mention Oddwen's vote for Holbytlass. I said yesterday that I believed that one Werewolf had voted for another at least once, when it would have seemed safe to do so. That would certainly fit the bill. Indeed the only other vote that also fitted the bill was Firefoot's vote for you on the first day, and that was clearly not it.

I will review yesterday's events with your theory in mind.