Tol-in-Gaurhoth III (The Saga Continues...)

[the phantom]

The phantom also voted for Evisse. But this was at a stage where it was really either him or her, so it is understandable. It does not put him in the clear, but it makes his vote for Evisse less suspicious in my eyes.

Thank you for mentioning that. When I voted, I had three votes and Evisse had three votes. What was I going to do- vote for myself? Vote for someone entirely different?

There were a couple of people I would've voted for before Evisse, but the way things stood at the time I felt it necessary to vote for her to preserve myself.

*shakes head*

Our poor seer. She should've thought of what happened to Fordim last week before voting for me. Let this be a lesson to all future seers who would like to make it through the first day. DON'T vote for the phantom on day one.

So, does anyone not suspect Fordim? He presented a plan to quickly weed out the seer and his primary enemy died last night.

Now- don't give me the "too obvious" argument. It could work both ways. Fordim possibly figured he could do the obvious and get away with it because it was so obvious. It makes sense to me.

But maybe not... perhaps Morm and Saucy are in it together!

In this post, Morm named both Saucy and Kuru, and in the following post, Saucy shoots back a bit. Perhaps the two wolves thought that if they pretended to suspect each other at the beginning that if one of them were caught it would make the other look more innocent. The trick would be to appear opposed but not actually try to get the other lynched. Notice in the post that while Morm is suspicious of Saucy, slightly more suspicion is put onto Kuru.

Morm continues his spat with Saucy here, Saucy answers him back here, and Morm responds here.

Also, I was on my way to being lynched (down 3 votes to 1) when Saucy stepped in and voted for Evisse. Is it possible that he knew both Evisse and I were innocent and wanted us to tie so we'd both be lynched?

Saucy and Morm are behaving much as I would behave if I were a wolf.

Now, don't snap back at me too much, you two. I would still lynch Fordim before you (and possibly one or two others), but in case I happen to get lynched today I just wanted to toss a theory out there before I die in case things get so bad around here that the villagers are willing to try a crazy theory.

And things probably will get that bad unless we get a slice of luck.

[mormegil]

Well if that's not the greatest knee-jerk reaction I've ever seen. I can say that I only "suspected" SpM and Kuru at the time to get peoples reactions and to start conversation. That is not to say that my fears have not elevated or diminished, simply that we needed to start somewhere.

Let me illustrate why this is a knee-jerk reaction.

EVERYONE- Don't lynch me. Only the wolves would benefit from that.

I will vote for + + Evisse.

If I'm wrong, perhaps I'll go after Morm next. I don't much like being voted for

Let this be a lesson to all future seers who would like to make it through the first day. DON'T vote for the phantom on day one

It is very clear that the phantom doesn't like people voting for him, though I can't blame him for who would like it? However my policy is and always has been to be suspicious of everyone and invite people to investigate me also. Now to vow to come after me if he is wrong seems so petty and illogical that I hope we can see past this front.

I will post later my suspicions with arguments to back it up not simply emotional reactions.

[Firefoot]

I think I'd feel more inclined to side with mormegil on that one. The posts that phantom high-lighted are so early in the game that there was absolutely nothing to go on and, in light of mormegil's and SpM's other useful contributions, I am extremely inclined to just dismiss those posts as early banter. All save the last post were before Fordim's "plan post," when everyone was just figuring that there would have to be some luck involved in selecting someone to be lynched, so may as well pick someone, and Kuru and SpM would have been reasonable choices: both logical thinkers and, should they be wolves, no small threat.

And it does seem like a rather knee-jerk action on the part of the phantom...

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

Kuruharan says in post 107:

However, if I were a werewolf this time I'd certainly be trying to drive the herd in the direction of hanging someone who has suspicion hanging about his person for some unaccountable reason.

According to his own logic, the fact that there are people casting suspicion on him would indicate that they are Werewolves, insofar as they are trying to “drive the herd” toward hanging someone who is already under suspicion. Kuru, I would note, garnered zero votes yesterday to my two. So it would appear that I am under more suspicion than he: which makes his comments in post 101 illuminating:

This is a rather strange, callous, and self-serving thing to say in this situation. It makes me think that the werewolves killed TGWBS thinking that we would never believe that Fordim (being one of them) would do something so obvious.

However, that is just a theory and not necessarily the best one at the moment. However, Fordim has ruined the calming of my suspicions about him.

Seems to me that we may have quite an example of attempted “herd leading”…

SaucepanMan made the point:

But it was Kuruharan's comments that tipped me towards Evisse rather than SoN. He drew attention to her "hedging" comments and, fortified by that, I began to concentrate on her rather than SoN. Was Kuru, knowing that Evisse was innocent, trying to lead me (and the other innocent Villagers) towards her and away from SoN? It is quite possible.

More “herding”???

Let me point out that I’m not reacting to Kuru’s suspicions with new ones of my own: away back in post 99 I put him right at the top of my list with Saucy based on yesterday’s events.

(NB to Saucy: I had the votes in reverse order because I worked backward through the posts: but you are quite right, it is useful to look at them in proper chronological order so thanks for that – I must admit, that seeing them in that order does make The Phantom look a little less suspicious.)

One more thing I will say is that unless I start to see a lot more from Shelob, Oddwen, Holybtlass, Son of Numenor and in particular Azaeilia I’m going to start agitating to lynch someone more evasive and low-key than my current top suspects…

[the phantom]

Since when am I a knee-jerk type of person?

No, Morm, you and Saucy's chatter at the beginning got my attention immediately, since it was slightly akin to the way I pretended to be suspicious of Nim right away in that other-town-that-I-shouldn't-be-mentioning.

And as far as threatening to go after you, I said it because-
1) I had already thought of a Morm-Saucy duo and figured I might bring it up the next day. By the way, that's why I used your name and Saucy's name in my example.
2) I'm the phantom. I'm no stranger to threatening statements. For example, remember when I threatened lmp? And in this post I said to Boromir "Do not be so eager to snipe, Boromir, especially in my direction. I don't like it."

Directing a menacing statement towards you for voting for me is entirely phantomish.

I think this can illustrate how large of a flip-flop he made and that he himself asked does anyone else not see this? I ask you phantom did you not see this?

Are you wanting to know why I asked the question "Has no one else noticed this?"?

I asked the question out of shock.

Yes, there were people like yourself and Firefoot who seemed opposed to the plan, but I could not believe the lack of vehemence. The plan was a guaranteed seer-killer. Though others touched on the anti-seer implications, no one clearly screamed it as I did. No one seemed as afraid of the plan as they should've been.

That's why I asked that question.

One more thing I will say is that unless I start to see a lot more from Shelob, Oddwen, Holybtlass, Son of Numenor and in particular Azaeilia I’m going to start agitating to lynch someone more evasive and low-key than my current top suspects…

I completely agree. I think it would be delightful to purposefully tie the vote at one a piece and lynch all our evasive/low-key types in one fell swoop. Probably at least one is a wolf.

My suspicions of The Saucepan Man have been growing rapidly.

It's nice to see I'm not alone.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

... even though he has still been around.

Hoe perceptive of you Kuru. Yes, I have been around without making further comment. Largely because I am reviewing the proceedings to date in an effort to draw something useful from the current chaos, rather than throwing accusations around willy-nilly as many others seem to be doing.

I have set out my intitial suspicions for today, but have very little else to go on at the moment. When I do have more, I shall share it.

Originally Posted by the phantom

I think it would be delightful to purposefully tie the vote at one a piece and lynch all our evasive/low-key types in one fell swoop. Probably at least one is a wolf.

What a curious comment ...!!??

[Holbytlass]

Go ahead and lynch me with another, that would make the wolves happy having villagers do their work for them!! especially 'in one fell swoop' or whatever that saying was. I'm annoyed that I'm being accused of a wolf just because I haven't said anything. I have been here for quite awhile and i'm trying to take notes, my hands are faster with a hammer than a pen. And maybe all of you who talk too much, too fast, and point fingers too often ought to be strung up in a tie! It would seem more wolfish to cause noise than to think.
Now, please, forgive me for my rant. I want to be clear on things before any votes be given or where to place my vote.

[Holbytlass]

I hope to have the council's leave to get my family from the river. And I hope not to bring suspicion on me further.

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

Originally Posted by Holbytlass

Go ahead and lynch me with another, that would make the wolves happy having villagers do their work for them!! especially 'in one fell swoop' or whatever that saying was. I'm annoyed that I'm being accused of a wolf just because I haven't said anything. I have been here for quite awhile and i'm trying to take notes, my hands are faster with a hammer than a pen. And maybe all of you who talk too much, too fast, and point fingers too often ought to be strung up in a tie! It would seem more wolfish to cause noise than to think.
Now, please, forgive me for my rant. I want to be clear on things before any votes be given or where to place my vote.

I agree, Holbytlass. I have been away all day, and it's difficult to keep up with this discussion, everything moves too fast.

One more thing I will say is that unless I start to see a lot more from Shelob, Oddwen, Holybtlass, Son of Numenor and in particular Azaeilia I’m going to start agitating to lynch someone more evasive and low-key than my current top suspects…

I completely agree. I think it would be delightful to purposefully tie the vote at one a piece and lynch all our evasive/low-key types in one fell swoop. Probably at least one is a wolf.

It could be one strategy to be quiet and hope that no one notices you... But what is, perhaps, more suspicious to me is talking TOO much, TOO fast, and trying to, perhaps draw attention away from oneself or the matter at hand in the hopes that everyone else would be distracted.

So, I'm not going to try to draw attention from myself. I may be low-key, but I'm certainly not evasive. Go ahead, lynch me...but I will tell you now that just because my life has been busy these past few days doesn't mean that I am a werewolf.

Because my particular schedule, the time that the DAY ends is particularly inconvenient, and I probably won't have time to say much more before then...
So I will be either very brave, or very foolish (most likely the latter) and cast my vote now for
++ Phantom because I don't like how he deflects from himself and put suspicion on myself and others who may not have been given the opportunity to post. And now I know that I am pretty much dead...but I have the feeling that I would die very soon anyway.

[mormegil]

As promised I would begin to explain my suspicions of who and why. My main suspicion has been and currently remains the phantom. What he has said and done just doesn’t sit right with me and I hope to be able to explain why.

He was quick to agree with Fordim’s idea and very uncharacteristically give little explanation. Now my position on Fordim’s plan is well known so I wish not to rehash that here. Suffice it to say that currently I am willing to give him the benefit of the doubt and assume that he meant it to stir up conversation.

In defending the plan, the phantom uses my name as an example (it could well have been anyone else though) and says this

In other words, I could start off tomorrow by saying "I dreamed that Mormegil was a wolf", but then proceed to spend most of my efforts attacking Saucy and actually vote for him. On the other hand, I could go after Mormegil full force as if I knew I was correct. You see, there are still ways for a seer to stand a bit apart.

Then is his notorious flip-flop post he arrogantly declares that a villager naming a wolf would be near suicide.

If everyone was to have a "dream" tonight, what would happen tomorrow? A non-werewolf would have a 25% chance of correctly naming a werewolf. In other words, if a villager says "I had a dream, and person X is a wolf" it is 75% likely that their choice would be wrong, and the wolves would obviously know if they were wrong and rule that person out as the seer. That means that making a random werewolf accusation would greatly serve the wolves. If all nine villagers said "Person X is a werewolf", then probability says that the wolves would then immediately be able to rule out 6 or 7 of us as the seer, leaving them with only 2 or 3 candidates. This would be suicide for the village.

Has no one else noticed this?

I think this can illustrate how large of a flip-flop he made and that he himself asked does anyone else not see this? I ask you phantom did you not see this? Also the phantom is claiming that he suspects Fordim

So, does anyone not suspect Fordim? He presented a plan to quickly weed out the seer and his primary enemy died last night.

Now- don't give me the "too obvious" argument. It could work both ways. Fordim possibly figured he could do the obvious and get away with it because it was so obvious. It makes sense to me.

If he suspects Fordim how can we buy into his defense that by agreeing with Fordim’s plan he was opening a door for the wolves to agree because the illustrious phantom has agreed, therefore it must be okay. The phantom knew that this plan would benefit the wolves and quickly agreed to it hoping to get innocents to agree as well. It’s asinine to assume the phantom agreed with it just because he thought he could lure the werewolves into agreeing when he himself suspects the author of the idea.

I see a possible (mind you I still don't think Fordim is innocent) framing attempt gone awry and now he is desperately trying to redirect guilt and suspicion.

I understand why he voted for Evisse. First, because he knew her to be innocent and saw and easy target to lynch. Second to protect himself but he didn’t give any explanation as to why he voted for her. Not even I’m voting in agreement to what SpM has said. To not give some sort of backing to something he does is not like the phantom at all.

And finally I must say,

EVERYONE- Don't lynch me. Only the wolves would benefit from that.

I will vote for + + Evisse.

Well I must say that the wolves have benefited a great deal more from her death than they would yours.

I have other suspicions that are on my list though they have been discussed by others.

They are Kuruharan, Fordim, Shelob and Son of Numenor top my list though other are near such as Saucepan Man(mainly for his spearheading the “lynch Evisse” initiative). And Azaleia due to her silence.