Tol-in-Gaurhoth III (The Saga Continues...)

[The Saucepan Man]

Fordim, you are right to place me at the top of your suspicion list. Given that she was innocent, anyone who voted for Evisse is bound to attract suspicion, and rightfully so. And I was one of the most vocal in calling for her to be lynched. The Werewolves would have known that she was innocent (although not that she was the Seer), and I believe that at least one would have voted for her. I fully accept, therefore, that I am a target for lynching today (heck, it may have saved me from being killed last night). All I can say is that I am innocent, and simply (one might say foolishly) misread the signs. To Evisse, wherever she may now be, I offer my wholehearted apologies.

I certainly did detect in her contributions a certain amount of hedging. That was what convinced me to vote for her (prompted, as I note below, by Kuruharan). Now, with the benefit of hindsight, the reason for her hedging is clear. As I said, I misread the signs.

First off, I stand by what I said yesterday. I still consider Fordim's proposals to have been a perfect device for quickly identifying the Seer and reducing the number of Villagers early on. Obviously, I misapplied that belief badly, but I stand by the basic premise. (I would add that I am not against an organised strategy per se, but I see it as difficult to devise one which will not favour the Werewoves more, given their greater pre-existing knowledge.) I therefore remain suspicious of Fordim and agree with others that the gruesome murder of our poor Bard, one who voted for him yesterday, seems a little too convenient in seemingly placing him in the clear. I would also reiterate that, in making his proposals, he caused us to spend a lot of time yesterday discussing them rather than trying to find the Werewolves. If it was a tactic to create confusion, it clearly worked. I also remain suspicious of SoN, who accepted Fordim's proposals with little explanation.

But let's look at those who voted for Evisse, and when they voted. They were as follows (in order):

Shelob
The Saucepan Man
Kuruharan
The Phantom
The Only Real Estel

(Interestingly, Fordim listed them the other way round ...)

Now, with just over two hours to go, I was still undecided between Fordim, Evisse and SoN. I dismissed voting for Fordim because it would look like a knee-jerk reaction to his vote for me and also because, if he is a Werewolf, he was unlikely to have instigated my death during the night having voted for me. But it was Kuruharan's comments that tipped me towards Evisse rather than SoN. He drew attention to her "hedging" comments and, fortified by that, I began to concentrate on her rather than SoN. Was Kuru, knowing that Evisse was innocent, trying to lead me (and the other innocent Villagers) towards her and away from SoN? It is quite possible.

Shelob voted first for Evisse, claiming not to have had time to have read the full discussion. Perhaps she rather than (or even in addition to) Kuru was trying to lead the vote away from SoN and towards Evisse.

The phantom also voted for Evisse. But this was at a stage where it was really either him or her, so it is understandable. It does not put him in the clear, but it makes his vote for Evisse less suspicious in my eyes.

The remaining person to vote for Evisse was The Only Real Estel. But he voted at a time when he could have acheived a double-lynching (the phantom and Evisse). So, unless the phantom is a Werewolf, that speaks in his favour. In other words, it seems likely that if the phantom is innocent, then TORE probably is too. Conversely, if TORE is a Werewolf, then the phantom is likely also to be one.

So, my suspicions are currently directed towards Fordim, Kuruharan, Shelob and SoN. And I am now particularly suspicious of Kuru, given his approach of saying nothing controversial, but building subtly on what others have said to direct the thoughts of the Villagers in a certain direction.

But these are mere suspicions at this stage. I do not wish to say more nor put it any higher for the time being since, given the outcome of yesterday’s voting, I am sorely afraid now of being too decisive in my opinions …

[Kuruharan]

I do not wish to say more nor put it any higher for the time being since, given the outcome of yesterday’s voting, I am sorely afraid now of being too decisive in my opinions

And you people are accusing me of being slippery.

Look, I'm innocent. I know I'm innocent and the werewolves know I'm innocent. However, if I were a werewolf this time I'd certainly be trying to drive the herd in the direction of hanging someone who has suspicion hanging about his person for some unaccountable reason.

If I get lynched some of you are going to have very red faces and I'd urge you to look closely at those who were most vocal against me. But even more than them, look at the people who were secondary in it not necessarily the prime movers.

[the phantom]

The phantom also voted for Evisse. But this was at a stage where it was really either him or her, so it is understandable. It does not put him in the clear, but it makes his vote for Evisse less suspicious in my eyes.

Thank you for mentioning that. When I voted, I had three votes and Evisse had three votes. What was I going to do- vote for myself? Vote for someone entirely different?

There were a couple of people I would've voted for before Evisse, but the way things stood at the time I felt it necessary to vote for her to preserve myself.

*shakes head*

Our poor seer. She should've thought of what happened to Fordim last week before voting for me. Let this be a lesson to all future seers who would like to make it through the first day. DON'T vote for the phantom on day one.

So, does anyone not suspect Fordim? He presented a plan to quickly weed out the seer and his primary enemy died last night.

Now- don't give me the "too obvious" argument. It could work both ways. Fordim possibly figured he could do the obvious and get away with it because it was so obvious. It makes sense to me.

But maybe not... perhaps Morm and Saucy are in it together!

In this post, Morm named both Saucy and Kuru, and in the following post, Saucy shoots back a bit. Perhaps the two wolves thought that if they pretended to suspect each other at the beginning that if one of them were caught it would make the other look more innocent. The trick would be to appear opposed but not actually try to get the other lynched. Notice in the post that while Morm is suspicious of Saucy, slightly more suspicion is put onto Kuru.

Morm continues his spat with Saucy here, Saucy answers him back here, and Morm responds here.

Also, I was on my way to being lynched (down 3 votes to 1) when Saucy stepped in and voted for Evisse. Is it possible that he knew both Evisse and I were innocent and wanted us to tie so we'd both be lynched?

Saucy and Morm are behaving much as I would behave if I were a wolf.

Now, don't snap back at me too much, you two. I would still lynch Fordim before you (and possibly one or two others), but in case I happen to get lynched today I just wanted to toss a theory out there before I die in case things get so bad around here that the villagers are willing to try a crazy theory.

And things probably will get that bad unless we get a slice of luck.

[mormegil]

Well if that's not the greatest knee-jerk reaction I've ever seen. I can say that I only "suspected" SpM and Kuru at the time to get peoples reactions and to start conversation. That is not to say that my fears have not elevated or diminished, simply that we needed to start somewhere.

Let me illustrate why this is a knee-jerk reaction.

EVERYONE- Don't lynch me. Only the wolves would benefit from that.

I will vote for + + Evisse.

If I'm wrong, perhaps I'll go after Morm next. I don't much like being voted for

Let this be a lesson to all future seers who would like to make it through the first day. DON'T vote for the phantom on day one

It is very clear that the phantom doesn't like people voting for him, though I can't blame him for who would like it? However my policy is and always has been to be suspicious of everyone and invite people to investigate me also. Now to vow to come after me if he is wrong seems so petty and illogical that I hope we can see past this front.

I will post later my suspicions with arguments to back it up not simply emotional reactions.

[Firefoot]

I think I'd feel more inclined to side with mormegil on that one. The posts that phantom high-lighted are so early in the game that there was absolutely nothing to go on and, in light of mormegil's and SpM's other useful contributions, I am extremely inclined to just dismiss those posts as early banter. All save the last post were before Fordim's "plan post," when everyone was just figuring that there would have to be some luck involved in selecting someone to be lynched, so may as well pick someone, and Kuru and SpM would have been reasonable choices: both logical thinkers and, should they be wolves, no small threat.

And it does seem like a rather knee-jerk action on the part of the phantom...

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

Kuruharan says in post 107:

However, if I were a werewolf this time I'd certainly be trying to drive the herd in the direction of hanging someone who has suspicion hanging about his person for some unaccountable reason.

According to his own logic, the fact that there are people casting suspicion on him would indicate that they are Werewolves, insofar as they are trying to “drive the herd” toward hanging someone who is already under suspicion. Kuru, I would note, garnered zero votes yesterday to my two. So it would appear that I am under more suspicion than he: which makes his comments in post 101 illuminating:

This is a rather strange, callous, and self-serving thing to say in this situation. It makes me think that the werewolves killed TGWBS thinking that we would never believe that Fordim (being one of them) would do something so obvious.

However, that is just a theory and not necessarily the best one at the moment. However, Fordim has ruined the calming of my suspicions about him.

Seems to me that we may have quite an example of attempted “herd leading”…

SaucepanMan made the point:

But it was Kuruharan's comments that tipped me towards Evisse rather than SoN. He drew attention to her "hedging" comments and, fortified by that, I began to concentrate on her rather than SoN. Was Kuru, knowing that Evisse was innocent, trying to lead me (and the other innocent Villagers) towards her and away from SoN? It is quite possible.

More “herding”???

Let me point out that I’m not reacting to Kuru’s suspicions with new ones of my own: away back in post 99 I put him right at the top of my list with Saucy based on yesterday’s events.

(NB to Saucy: I had the votes in reverse order because I worked backward through the posts: but you are quite right, it is useful to look at them in proper chronological order so thanks for that – I must admit, that seeing them in that order does make The Phantom look a little less suspicious.)

One more thing I will say is that unless I start to see a lot more from Shelob, Oddwen, Holybtlass, Son of Numenor and in particular Azaeilia I’m going to start agitating to lynch someone more evasive and low-key than my current top suspects…

[the phantom]

Since when am I a knee-jerk type of person?

No, Morm, you and Saucy's chatter at the beginning got my attention immediately, since it was slightly akin to the way I pretended to be suspicious of Nim right away in that other-town-that-I-shouldn't-be-mentioning.

And as far as threatening to go after you, I said it because-
1) I had already thought of a Morm-Saucy duo and figured I might bring it up the next day. By the way, that's why I used your name and Saucy's name in my example.
2) I'm the phantom. I'm no stranger to threatening statements. For example, remember when I threatened lmp? And in this post I said to Boromir "Do not be so eager to snipe, Boromir, especially in my direction. I don't like it."

Directing a menacing statement towards you for voting for me is entirely phantomish.

I think this can illustrate how large of a flip-flop he made and that he himself asked does anyone else not see this? I ask you phantom did you not see this?

Are you wanting to know why I asked the question "Has no one else noticed this?"?

I asked the question out of shock.

Yes, there were people like yourself and Firefoot who seemed opposed to the plan, but I could not believe the lack of vehemence. The plan was a guaranteed seer-killer. Though others touched on the anti-seer implications, no one clearly screamed it as I did. No one seemed as afraid of the plan as they should've been.

That's why I asked that question.

One more thing I will say is that unless I start to see a lot more from Shelob, Oddwen, Holybtlass, Son of Numenor and in particular Azaeilia I’m going to start agitating to lynch someone more evasive and low-key than my current top suspects…

I completely agree. I think it would be delightful to purposefully tie the vote at one a piece and lynch all our evasive/low-key types in one fell swoop. Probably at least one is a wolf.

My suspicions of The Saucepan Man have been growing rapidly.

It's nice to see I'm not alone.

[mormegil]

As promised I would begin to explain my suspicions of who and why. My main suspicion has been and currently remains the phantom. What he has said and done just doesn’t sit right with me and I hope to be able to explain why.

He was quick to agree with Fordim’s idea and very uncharacteristically give little explanation. Now my position on Fordim’s plan is well known so I wish not to rehash that here. Suffice it to say that currently I am willing to give him the benefit of the doubt and assume that he meant it to stir up conversation.

In defending the plan, the phantom uses my name as an example (it could well have been anyone else though) and says this

In other words, I could start off tomorrow by saying "I dreamed that Mormegil was a wolf", but then proceed to spend most of my efforts attacking Saucy and actually vote for him. On the other hand, I could go after Mormegil full force as if I knew I was correct. You see, there are still ways for a seer to stand a bit apart.

Then is his notorious flip-flop post he arrogantly declares that a villager naming a wolf would be near suicide.

If everyone was to have a "dream" tonight, what would happen tomorrow? A non-werewolf would have a 25% chance of correctly naming a werewolf. In other words, if a villager says "I had a dream, and person X is a wolf" it is 75% likely that their choice would be wrong, and the wolves would obviously know if they were wrong and rule that person out as the seer. That means that making a random werewolf accusation would greatly serve the wolves. If all nine villagers said "Person X is a werewolf", then probability says that the wolves would then immediately be able to rule out 6 or 7 of us as the seer, leaving them with only 2 or 3 candidates. This would be suicide for the village.

Has no one else noticed this?

I think this can illustrate how large of a flip-flop he made and that he himself asked does anyone else not see this? I ask you phantom did you not see this? Also the phantom is claiming that he suspects Fordim

So, does anyone not suspect Fordim? He presented a plan to quickly weed out the seer and his primary enemy died last night.

Now- don't give me the "too obvious" argument. It could work both ways. Fordim possibly figured he could do the obvious and get away with it because it was so obvious. It makes sense to me.

If he suspects Fordim how can we buy into his defense that by agreeing with Fordim’s plan he was opening a door for the wolves to agree because the illustrious phantom has agreed, therefore it must be okay. The phantom knew that this plan would benefit the wolves and quickly agreed to it hoping to get innocents to agree as well. It’s asinine to assume the phantom agreed with it just because he thought he could lure the werewolves into agreeing when he himself suspects the author of the idea.

I see a possible (mind you I still don't think Fordim is innocent) framing attempt gone awry and now he is desperately trying to redirect guilt and suspicion.

I understand why he voted for Evisse. First, because he knew her to be innocent and saw and easy target to lynch. Second to protect himself but he didn’t give any explanation as to why he voted for her. Not even I’m voting in agreement to what SpM has said. To not give some sort of backing to something he does is not like the phantom at all.

And finally I must say,

EVERYONE- Don't lynch me. Only the wolves would benefit from that.

I will vote for + + Evisse.

Well I must say that the wolves have benefited a great deal more from her death than they would yours.

I have other suspicions that are on my list though they have been discussed by others.

They are Kuruharan, Fordim, Shelob and Son of Numenor top my list though other are near such as Saucepan Man(mainly for his spearheading the “lynch Evisse” initiative). And Azaleia due to her silence.

[Holbytlass]

I can see quite well how my actions seem suspicious, SpM. I DID get all bothered about being called a wolf on the basis of my being silent. It WAS hipocritical of me. I admit I took the easy (and cowardly) way out of yesterday's vote. I didn't hide that fact, I said it was a coin-flip.
I suppose my trying to be diplomatic has brought suspicion on me. I am trying to be more vocal...see, even before you posted I said for all to see that I thought Fordim was innocent. And yes, I said more stuff, too.
I don't know what to say, other than the tide has turned to those who 'follow'
even Kuru said about looking to those in second...

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

If I get lynched some of you are going to have very red faces and I'd urge you to look closely at those who were most vocal against me. But even more than them, look at the people who were secondary in it not necessarily the prime movers.

Does that give a free ride for those who are the movers and 'leaders' of arguments even if they be wolves? So now blame it on the ones who can't keep up with the legal blather.

[Shelob]

"Shelob, I think you were taking phantom's "There is another suggestion. Perhaps we should lynch Fordim, Saucy, Morm, Shelob, Kuru, Firefoot, TORE, and I. There's bound to be a werewolf or two in the bunch." a great deal more seriously than it was meant to be taken. At any rate, it made me laugh a little." ~Firefoot

Perhaps...I just read it and immediately thought something to the effect of "MERG! Meh-Meh...GAHH!!"...translated into English that would be roughly equal to "Why in the world would ANYONE suggest this!?! It's so DUMB!"...given that reaction can you really blame me...also I'm infamous for missing jokes, even with things like body language and giant "THIS IS A JOKE" signs to hlep me...



Saucepan Man, I can understand your reasoning just wish that the references you make were more accurate...

...For startes does saying "I have no qualms with the plan to protect the seer. It seems like 'twill give the hairy fiends a double headache in their nightly plots." really counts as "quite strong support"...
...secondly you said
"then ended up voting for Evisse (an innocent) on the basis of my reasoning that those supporting that proposal were to be suspected"
What I did was use your usefull list as a summary of behavours so that I could post before being dragged off...what I actually said was
"Out of all the behavious and tendencies I saw there the most suspicious to me is agreeing with what either was or will be clear to everyone (ie: the the plans are flawed) but still wishing to use them"
...I disagreed with one, and so didn't want to use it, and didn't mind the other, so didn't mind using it...Evisse disliked both but didn't mind using both...it was that behaour that I found suspicious...not the fact that she supported the idea...

[Oddwen]

As I have said before, I didn't expect to get online today...I'm lucky that I am now.

Firefoot- that day I was rushed knowing that I couldn't be online for days, and I feared not getting a vote in at all, so I voted for the one that seemed best to me at the time. And the phantom's actions are unlike the phantom that I'm used to seeing, (little of that though there is) - though now that I've had a chance to review the discussions at length, there may be a reason for it. Deliberately going against what people think he would do, perhaps, to draw attention to himself - or away.

Originally Posted by Firefoot

She (Oddwen) even told us that she hadn't reviewed the thread very closely, rather using a few (notably SpM's) posts as summaries.

No I didn't.

Holbytlass's sudden outburst and furry jests seem reminiscient of a Thrasher who comes to mind...

Kuru seems very confident that he's going to be lynched, and that we're going to be sorry. Though from what I garner SpM seems the only one highly suspicious of him, correct me if I'm wrong.

Gah, only a few minutes left to me online. I'll try to put more thoughts into order tomorrow morning, but before I go I just wanted to say:
Though honest absenteeism isn't a crime, lurking is the thing we should be worried about.