Tol-in-Gaurhoth III (The Saga Continues...)

[Firefoot]

Just for clarity, the votes so far are:

Saucepan Man - 1 (Fordim)
Fordim - 1 (TGWBS)
phantom - 2 (mormegil, Oddwen)
Azaelia - 1 (Holbytlass)
Only Real Estel - 1 (SoN)
Evisse - 1 (Shelob)

That leaves 10 votes possible left. It seems likely enough that there could be a tie, resulting in two lynchings.

Heading my suspicion list at the moment are Fordim, phantom, Evisse, and SoN, for reasons already stated either by myself or others. I'm still not sure who I will vote for, though I think I may be leaning towards Fordim, mostly for his elusions of TGWBS's direct questions. Evisse is my second choice at the moment, for the reasons SpM outlined three posts above.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Firefoot

Just for clarity, the votes so far are:

Saucepan Man - 1 (Fordim)
Fordim - 1 (TGWBS)
phantom - 2 (mormegil, Oddwen)
Azaelia - 1 (Holbytlass)
Only Real Estel - 1 (SoN)
Evisse - 1 (Shelob)

That leaves 10 votes possible left. It seems likely enough that there could be a tie, resulting in two lynchings.

According to my calculation I think there is only 7 votes left. I could be wrong but 7 votes cast and 14 villagers.

[the guy who be short]

Four votes are left.
In the interests of balance, I ask that the remaining villagers are not swayed by numbers. Vote for who you believe to be guilty.

Edit: Ah, it appears Evisse already stated what I had said.
Three votes left. Use them wisely.

[Kuruharan]

I'm working on my post. It is just taking me awhile because I've got a lot of ground to cover.

I'd like to ask that (seeing as how I'm one of the few voices attempting to speak in favor of another idea than the currently popular one) the deluge of voting not start until I have a chance to finish.

I'd also like to note that nobody has really gone to the bother to answer my question yet.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Firefoot

That leaves 10 votes possible left.

Surely you mean 7? Ooer, perhaps I should not be trusting your instincts on mathematical matters ...

[The Saucepan Man]

Time moves on. I want my vote to count, and I am not so sure that I want to see the phantom hanged - not on the current state of the evidence anyway.

So I will cast my vote for:

++ EVISSE THE BLUE

I have explained my reasoning at length previously.

[Kuruharan]

Previous history means nothing in this game, one way or the other.

You misunderstand. History means nothing. Odds should be considered.

Oh well. Enough of that blather.

I vote for ++ EVISSE THE BLUE. If this is right we should begin glaring very hard at Fordim.

[Evisse the Blue]

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

I vote for ++ EVISSE THE BLUE. If this is right we should begin glaring very hard at Fordim.

Too bad that it isn't. It isn't right and you are either intentionally (as is my strong doubt) or unintentionally making a big mistake.
Those who have not voted so far need to be very careful not to jump on the bandwagon started along by SPM. Most people seem to follow his course of action, pressed by the very little remaining time, which seems to cloud their judgement.

[The Saucepan Man]

I had not seen Evisse's vote before I cast mine. But it merely reinforces me in my view. Surely a Werewolf is more likely to vote for the one innocent who is attracting as many votes (or potential votes) as she is.

Of course, there is no certainty that the phantom is innocent. But, if we lynch Evisse and she is guilty, that would now speak in his favour.

Alas, there is similarly no certainty that Evisse is guilty. But she is the person that I suspect the most on the basis of the first day's proceedings. Hence my vote.

[Kuruharan]

So it would appear that I am under more suspicion than he: which makes his comments in post 101 illuminating:

Quote:
This is a rather strange, callous, and self-serving thing to say in this situation. It makes me think that the werewolves killed TGWBS thinking that we would never believe that Fordim (being one of them) would do something so obvious.

However, that is just a theory and not necessarily the best one at the moment. However, Fordim has ruined the calming of my suspicions about him.


Seems to me that we may have quite an example of attempted “herd leading”…

Yeah, but the suspicion you've brought on yourself is your own fault.

The only reason why people would suspect me is A) they are a werewolf and they think they can hang me more easily than some others or B) they are working off of sheer unreasoning gut instinct without any basis in reality other than stuff they are not supposed to be paying attention to.

My suspicions of The Saucepan Man have been growing rapidly. He accuses me, I speak my bit, and he suddenly goes suspicious quiet even though he has still been around. It is almost as if he and his cronies said, "Oh crap! When we lynch Kuruharan everyone will see that he was innocent! Those of us who pushed for his death are going to look really bad! We've got to shut up for a bit and hope somebody else takes the bait!"

At the moment I'm also inclined to think that Firefoot may be among those cronies.

I'm also still suspicious of Fordim.

[Holbytlass]

swimming-haha, we wolves like to keep our coats clean. Actually my husband and children brought back supplies for the shop.

What I find disturbing is Kuru's saying here...

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

The only reason why people would suspect me is A) they are a werewolf and they think they can hang me more easily than some others or B) they are working off of sheer unreasoning gut instinct without any basis in reality other than stuff they are not supposed to be paying attention to.

And Phantom's saying about future seers don't vote for me on the first day and other sayings of his that Mormegil pointed out (post109). They both sound very pompous, it reminds me of the theives in The Emperor's New Clothes...you know, they said if a person couldn't see the clothes, that person was stupid. It seems to me Kuru and Phantom are trying to scare people into not voting for them under threat that the voters come off looking like wolves.

[Kuruharan]

Go ahead and lynch me and find out!

I promise you I'm telling the truth. When I'm gone and you see that I'm a villager (and you will) just make sure and hang Saucepan Man.

[Shelob]

"A separate time a separate place
The glass reflects a single race
Fighting for self preservation
Each a single dying nation"
~Caladre (aka. me!)



"There is another suggestion. Perhaps we should lynch Fordim, Saucy, Morm, Shelob, Kuru, Firefoot, TORE, and I. There's bound to be a werewolf or two in the bunch. " ~The Phantom

Phantom...how good are you with numbers?

The score is currently werewolves 3 villagers 9...if you lynch Fordim, Saucy, Morm, Kuru, Firefoot, TORE, yourself and I (8 people) and you either get no werewovles or only 1 then the score will be

Werewolves 3 Villagers 1 (if no werewolves in that group)

or

Werewolves 2 Villagers 2 (if only 1 werewolf)

in either case Werewovles win...and if you don't mean that this would be an uber-double-lynching (which is rather how I read it esp. given "I think it would be delightful to purposefully tie the vote at one a piece and lynch all our evasive/low-key types in one fell swoop. Probably at least one is a wolf.") then so long as the werewolves don't kill anyone on that list they're fine 'cause we'll only lynch people from the list...

...actually...isn't that idea rather too close to the "short-list" plan suggested yesterday for comfort?


As to grouping me with "the quiet group" I do appologise for that...Yesterday I knew I had SAT testing in the morning but thought I would have the afternoon free..then my parents sprang "family time" on me so I got dragged shopping and had to watch a movie (they thought it would 'de-stress' me...instead it 'distressed' me)...as for to day I thought I would only be gone a few hours in the afternoon for a graduation party (not mine...so don't congratulate me) but what my parents failed to tell me was that it took up half the day...again my sorrows from this point onward I should be a more active voice in our discussions.

Finally, as to whom I know are under suspicion, and whom I myself suspect, I think that the argument against Kuru has some merit...however given that he says
"Go ahead and lynch me and find out!"
I rather suspect he's telling the truth...at this point in the game it would be very risky for a werewolf to risk being voluntarily hung...the odds are still bad enough that the werewovles as a whole don't really gain much by sacrificing one of their own...

I can't agree or disagree with the arguments saying something to the effect of "The Phantom has been acting uncharacteristically therefore he's a werewolf"...I don't know what's 'characteristic' for the Phantom...however he has been seeming to try and keep up the levels of confusion...and, as I described above, his "Lynch them all" plan, unless you know you've got more than one werewolf, will fail miserable...if he's a werewolf all he had to do was choose suspicous people and make sure that he was the only werewolf...probably an easy task at this point--given all the suspicions flying around...

As to Saucepan Man and Mormegil, they both seem to be rather focused on one person without forgetting to give thought to everyone...not on it's own particularly suspicous behavour and so while I don't remove them from lists I've not yet seen enough to convince me either way...

For Fordim I stated what I thought earlier in the day and have yet seen nothing to really warrant chaning my thoughts...he's still suspicous and deserves watching, but I don't feel a pressing need to see him hung.

Firefoot I've yet to create an opinion on...but, today at least, all Firefoot's suggestions are in terms of potential werewolf stragegy rather than reasons for thinking Person A or Person B to be suspicious, which could be suspicious had Firefoot not stated an opinion with mormegil and against the Phantom...hmm, incase you misread that I'm not trying to say "Firefoot is against the Phantom therefore Firefoot is not a werewolf" I'm just saying that the before described behavour would have been more suspicious if Firefoot had never stated an opinion...

As to everyone else (myself included for the fairness of those not-me reading this: ie. You all) I feel that basing suspicion solely on the fact that we've not spoken isn't really fair...I explained myself above and suspect that everyone else has similar reasons...I know Oddwen mentioned an inability to get to a computer today, and I saw elsewhere that Azaelia mentioned SATs in reference to yesterday (but since I saw her on today [and subsequently advised her to go to invisible] I wonder why we've yet to hear from her)...So everyone on this list I'm willing to give a chance to explain their absense before truely judging...

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

The Quibble: a picture is hung upon the wall, a person is hanged by the neck until dead.

The Plea: Shelob and Firefoot are quite correct, I think, in agitating for more discussion of developing a strategy rather than assessing blame. I've tried it...are there any other ideas about how we can co-ordinate our actions to put the wolves at anything like a disadvantage?

A thought has occurred to me: perhaps we could focus more on making arguments about whom we think is innocent rather than guilty? That will prevent the finger-pointing and defensiveness. For my part, I am almost certain that Firefoot is innocent, insofar as she voted for me yesterday: seeing as I am attracting so much attention, I am one of the Werewolves' best friends at the moment: the last thing they wanted is to have me dead (that would have made their gambit of killing tgwbs rather pointless). I also lean toward Mormegil and Oddwen as being innocent, insofar as they voted for The Phantom using logic very much like that which led me to vote for Saucy. (Please note, this is not a backhand way of suggesting guilt for either TP or SpM, both of whom have gone a long way to allaying my suspicions of them this day.)

Anyone else out there think there are villagers they can trust?

[Kuruharan]

Another thing that I gleaned from my review is that there are three people who have participated in our daytime discussions without making many accusations.

That is because you are my primary suspect. We should only lynch one per day. Why cause distraction by naming other names?

Now, I know that I am innocent and (as I have said)

Odd. So do I!

To implicate the two of us seems a wolfish strategy to me.

Yes, accusing someone who is innocent is perfect werewolf strategy! You have got that part down.

The phantom has...also accused me, an innocent and prime lynching suspect.

Funny. I think this is why he may be in the clear (maybe).

Well, that’s the current state of my thinking. It may change, but today I think that we should be looking most closely at Kuru, Shelob, Holbytlass and SoN. Out of that list, it would not surpise me if at least two are Werewolves. The best Werewolf ploy, it seems to me, is to keep posting without drawing too much attention to yourself. All four on my list seem to have followed that strategy (although Kuru has “broken cover” slightly today - perhaps forced by his vote for Evisse and the subsequent comment).

You are going to be feeling soooo silly if you get me lynched. I'm beginning to suspect that your buddies have already written you off as lost after today and have told you to try and get rid of me anyway as they stay in cover (or at least try to).

Does that give a free ride for those who are the movers and 'leaders' of arguments even if they be wolves? So now blame it on the ones who can't keep up with the legal blather.

No. The idea there was to make sure that nobody gets forgotten in the confusion. You want to pay attention to everyone, the second people as well as the first. The most inconspicuous vote made is usually like the second or third in the early days.

It is a virtual certainty that I am going to vote against the Saucepan Man, but I'm going to wait just a little bit to see if anything else interesting turns up.

(In a way I'm almost hoping I do get lynched. That will prove what I've been saying the whole time and hopefully will get some werewolves out of cover. )

[Kuruharan]

Well, I may as well start the fireworks off here because I'm already in about the worst position and it is not going to do me any harm. I've already said about as much as can be said but to sum it up...

I make a convenient target for manipulation by the werewolves because of my role in Evisse's death. However, I've already shown that I was hardly the vocal originator of suspicion against her.

Ever since the start of this DAY The Saucepan Man (who was the vocal originator of suspicion against Evisse) has been gunning for me. You will notice that initially this DAY I was vocal in my suspicions of Fordim rather than him. I know I'm innocent, the only reason I can think of why Saucepan would be gunning for me so hard is that he is a werewolf and thinks I'm the easiest target for lynching. Firefoot also has been making inconspicuous motions in my direction (actually mentioning me as being suspicious in post 105 right before Saucepan took up the chorus in post 106).

Either way, lynch me or lynch him, I think it is probably a win-win situation for the village. Lynch me and you'll see that I've been telling the truth and the werewolves will have exposed themselves. Lynch him and I'm pretty certain the village will be down a werewolf with at least one solid suspect to follow.

If I am wrong and he is just an incredibly misguided villager, I'm more than happy to take the fall for it...but I don't think I'm wrong.

Anyway, I'm going to bed and have every intention of sleeping in tomorrow morning so I may not see how this plays out. If I get lynched or eaten remember what I've said.

++ THE SAUCEPAN MAN

[Firefoot]

Shelob, I think you were taking phantom's "There is another suggestion. Perhaps we should lynch Fordim, Saucy, Morm, Shelob, Kuru, Firefoot, TORE, and I. There's bound to be a werewolf or two in the bunch." a great deal more seriously than it was meant to be taken. At any rate, it made me laugh a little.

Anyway.

I too am leaning toward Fordim's innocence, for all that I voted for him yesterday, for similar reasons as SpM posted above. I would expect a werewolf to do a lot more hedging than Fordim has been doing.

I am also fairly convinced of the innocence of mormegil and SpM, as neither of them have really given me any reason to suspect them.

I am unsure about TORE, phantom, Shelob, Holbytlass, and Kuru. TORE, I have felt somewhat suspicious about but have failed to see conclusive evidence in either direction. phantom's activities are just confusing me; they don't seem to be normal, phatom-like posts, especially his largely unreasoned accusation of mormegil. Shelob, I have failed to see a lot of evidence for or against, and would be more willing to accept if she didn't seem to be 'slipping under the radar' so much. Holbytlass, I am fairly willing to accept her defense, though her voting of Azaelia did seem rather random. She is also getting very defensive, though perhaps rightfully so, without doing a whole lot of speculating on her own part. Kuru seems to me to either be a very confused villager or a werewolf who is drawing too much attention to himself. In his post before his latest, he outlined Fordim and SpM, whose innocence I am fairly convinced of, and myself, of whose innocence I am certain, to be on his suspicious list. But I'm not sure, and I am not quite ready to lynch any of these people.

My suspicions still lie heavily on SoN, for reasons which I have already stated. Nothing has yet been said to prove me otherwise.

Oddwen's behaviour has me uneasy. Unlike Azaelia who had not posted at all until just now, Oddwen actually did show up to vote. She even told us that she hadn't reviewed the thread very closely, rather using a few (notably SpM's) posts as summaries. If she really is an innocent villager, this doesn't seem like the greatest plan; obviously you would want to make the best possible choice. But a werewolf would already know who is innocent and know their targets, therefore by getting a decent summary s/he would know who to vote for without looking conspicuous. (If this were true of Oddwen, it would argue phantom's innocence.)

[the phantom]

They both sound very pompous

Me? Pompous? No way.

Remember the sig I used to have- "the phantom has posted. This thread is now important."?

It seems to me Kuru and Phantom are trying to scare people into not voting for them

You missed the point of my comment about not voting for me on day one. It was sort of a joke. Evisse voted for me on day one and got lynched. In the last coughgameahem, Fordy voted for me on day one and got lynched. I wasn't trying to scare people- I was noting what I saw as a humorous coincidence.

There is another suggestion. Perhaps we should lynch Fordim, Saucy, Morm, Shelob, Kuru, Firefoot, TORE, and I. There's bound to be a werewolf or two in the bunch.

...."THIS IS A JOKE" signs to hlep me...

It had a "this is a joke" sign. Didn't you see that the comment was followed by->

The phantom has been behaving uncharacteristically erratically and has accused mormegil on the basis of no evidence

I didn't accuse Morm so much as I accused both you and Morm together, Saucy. My theory (which I even called "crazy") did have a bit of reasoning behind it. What was it? The reasoning was that you and Morm's finger pointing somehow reminded me of what I did to Nim last time.

And everyone notice that Azaelia doesn't have time to post much, but certainly has the time to pop up and cast a vote for an innocent (me).

[Evisse the Blue]

What you so cleverly call hedging, Saucy, I call 'defending myself with the certainty of my innocence.' I am beginning to doubt you, although at the beginning I did not, just because you appear (intentionally?) blind to what I have been saying.
In the beginning, there was a plan and that plan was good. Then the plan was bad, and suddenly everyone in favour of it was on the suspect list. Weirdly enough how this resembles a political tactic (stress on 'tactic'). Changing sides in the middle of the debate, just as you get wind of the unpopularity of an idea looks very much like wolfish sneaky behaviour to me. And this is exactly what the phantom has done, without showing up then to see where the debate would lead...perhaps being certain that he had secured a good cover for himself.
Despite the 'hedging' you guys keep accusing me of, I have been, since I saw his post, constantly suspicious of the phantom.
And now, seeing as so very little time is left for us to come to a decision, I shall cast my vote for ++the phantom

PS: Shelob, you say:

Out of all the behavious and tendencies I saw there the most suspicious to me is agreeing with what either was or will be clear to everyone (ie: the the plans are flawed) but still wishing to use them.

Without getting into the theory of relativity and probabilities, which I expect everyone had enough of today , any plan is flawed, no theory to be put in practice is perfect or risk free. And a seemingly perfect utopia is the most dangerous of all theories. In any case, the fact that I was willing to test Fordim's theory should speak for my optimism and open-mindness, not for my guilt.