Good guys of LOTR clueless?

[Maédhros]

Yes. There can be no doubt about it. Both the passage that Earendilyon quoted and that which I quoted distinguish the lesser rings, which Gandalf describes as trifles for Elves but dangerous to mortals, from the twenty Rings of Power, ie the Three, the Seven, the Nine plus the One Ring, which he describes as perilous. It is clear from this that the Elf-smiths of Eregion created rings other than the Rings of Power. And the word "many" combined with the reference to them being "essays in ring craft" strongly suggests to me that there were quite a number of these lesser rings.

Yes, I have to agree with that. I thank you for showing me that. Nevertheless, this same fact make the good guys all the more incompetent.
Consider:

1. Gandalf felt uneasy about Bilbo's ring.
2. Gandalf knew that both rings had similar descriptions 11 years after Bilbo returned to the Shire in the White council discussion.
3. Gandalf while in that council mistrusted Saruman as to not tell him about Bilbo's ring but was satisfied about his conclusions that the ring could not be found.
4. In a world where gut feelings are as important of more important than common sense then was Gandalf not following his feeling odd?
5. If they were m lesser rings, what was the probability that Bilbo's ring was Sauron's? P=1/(m+1). Where m = the amount of total lesser rings. If m is big number, then the probability decreases.

With all those facts, do you really think that it deserved an investigation?

Lets look at what Gandalf did. He thought that m was a big number so that the probability of Bilbo's ring being Sauron's was almost nil.

It is in the year 3001 TA that Gandalf suspects that Bilbo's ring can be that of Sauron. What if Bilbo's ring turned out not to be that of Sauron, what could the good guys have done to defeat Sauron at so late a date in the TA? What was the plan? Did they even have any?
Could they overthrow Sauron by force of Arms? No.
What in Gods name would they have done if they had not found the One Ring?

[symestreem]

Originally Posted by Maédhros

4. In a world where gut feelings are as important of more important than common sense then was Gandalf not following his feeling odd?

Can you elaborate on this?

It is in the year 3001 TA that Gandalf suspects that Bilbo's ring can be that of Sauron. What if Bilbo's ring turned out not to be that of Sauron, what could the good guys have done to defeat Sauron at so late a date in the TA? What was the plan? Did they even have any?
Could they overthrow Sauron by force of Arms? No.

There was no reason to believe that the One Ring had not washed out to sea until Gandalf noticed Bilbo's ring. Remember, Sauron in the form of the Necromancer had just suffered another defeat, one which would not have been possible if he had the One Ring. At this point, there was no reason to believe Sauron would return. He needed the ring for that, and the ring was lost.
Besides, even if Sauron had gotten the ring, he had been defeated with it before. True, more elves, larger armies, etc.

[Kuruharan]

4. In a world where gut feelings are as important of more important than common sense then was Gandalf not following his feeling odd?

I, along with symestreem, would like some clarification on why this is so.

There was no reason to believe that the One Ring had not washed out to see until Gandalf noticed Bilbo's ring. Remember, Sauron in the form of the Necromancer had just suffered another defeat, one which would not have been possible if he had the One Ring. At this point, there was no reason to believe Sauron would return. He needed the ring for that, and the ring was lost.

While I agree with the gist of symestreem’s statement, I feel that it should be acknowledged that Sauron did flee of his own accord. However, there was no way that the Wise could know this. They only had enough information to judge the matter on face value.

It is in the year 3001 TA that Gandalf suspects that Bilbo's ring can be that of Sauron. What if Bilbo's ring turned out not to be that of Sauron, what could the good guys have done to defeat Sauron at so late a date in the TA? What was the plan? Did they even have any?
Could they overthrow Sauron by force of Arms? No.
What in Gods name would they have done if they had not found the One Ring?

They would probably have conducted a nasty protracted defensive war. Weird things happen when the real gut-splitting and axe-smacking start. As was actually seen, the forces of Good were quite capable of inflicting devastating defeats on Sauron’s armies. They may have forced Sauron to draw off for a time.

But, aside from this, the Wise (and Gandalf in particular) demonstrated their competence by recognizing what to do with the Ring when they had it and by doing their best to see it through. Gandalf admitted that he made mistakes but that does not mean that he was incapable of the task at hand. Very few people can accomplish anything without making mistakes of some sort.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

So once again, it seems Galadriel makes a false claim.

No one, not even one of the Valar, can read the mind of other 'equal beings'

I have to stand up for Galadriel now.
Why would Galadriel had lied she can read some thoughts of Sauron? Maybe to comfort Frodo by making him believe that she knows, what she's doing and Lorien doesn't fall yet. But I don't believe that. Actually, I claim that the quote from Morgoth's Ring (myths transformed, VII, ii) doesn't tell the absolute truth at all (like Legolas already said).
For lo and behold! The Return of the King: book 6: Many Partings:

For they (Celeborn, Galadriel, Elrond and Gandalf) did not move or speak with mouth, looking from mind to mind; and only their shining eyes stirred and kindled as their thoughts went to and fro.

Some people can read many things from other people's faces but not a whole conversation!

In the book it's stated that they (again Celeborn & others) talked about "all the ages that were gone" or they held council concerning next days. Well, I'd think that there was some mind reading involved.

[Aiwendil]

Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant wrote:

In the book it's stated that they (again Celeborn & others) talked about "all the ages that were gone" or they held council concerning next days. Well, I'd think that there was some mind reading involved.

This is "Osanwe-kenta", discussed in an essay published in one of the Vinyar Tengwars. I think it fits quite well with the account of fear given in Morgoth's Ring. The trick with Osanwe is that each party opens his or her mind willingly.

But as for Galadriel reading Sauron's thought - I don't think we need to doubt this. The quote from HoMe X to the effect that no one can read another person's mind is a technical point. One fea cannot simply overwhelm another and read its thought. But real characters read each other's thoughts all the time. One can listen to another's words, watch another's facial expressions, listen to one's tone of voice, etc. So it is certainly not fundamentally impossible for one person to come to understand another's thoughts. The Rings put Galadriel and Sauron in a sort of constant contact; it is no wonder then that they might be able to discern certain things about each other. What Galadriel could not do is to overwhelm Sauron and obtain direct access to his spirit itself.

[Alchisiel]

This has been a very interesting thread. I've enjoyed it reading very much. I don't post very often but I feel compelled to.

It has been said that the Elves and the people of Gondor/Arnor didn't look hard enough to find Isildur's body. As far as I've seen no one here has taken into consideration the river's currents. Most large rivers do have an under current which could have made the finding of the body pretty difficult especially when you also take into consideration that the search parties probably would have been under fire. Another thing to consider is what was used to search the river. It's not like they had scuba gear back then. How many times have we heard of bodies washing ashore? I know in my area just last year we had two gentlemen fall overboard and there bodies were not found until at least six months later when their bodies washed ashore. The under currents would also have made the finding of the ring nearly impossible. I know I lost a locket in my teens and didn't find it until my mother was raking leaves the next year. A locket is a bit bigger than a ring and there wasn't any water washing it away.

[Findegil]

Maybe we should also consider an other point: Elrond and Círdan how undoubtably would have been the leading intelegenc for any search had just had an example of what happend to anybody who took that ring in his hands.
If we consider a council of the wise after the desater of Gladden Fileds, whom could they trust to search for the Ring and bring it back to them if it was found? As has been pointed out before, to have some chance of success such a search would have required a lot of men or elves. What could they tell them? "We would like to find the dead body of the King because he was such a great hero?" Okay, but that wouldn't help them. Isildur lost the Ring before he was killed and fell into the stream. I ever thought that the Wise from what they found and know (Isildurs gear east of the river, that he had worn the Ring during his flight, the places of the orc-archers west of the river, Isildur himself not returning) guessed that either Isildur lost the Ring in the river or he was killed with the Ring on his finger. To search for the Ring alone seems an hopeless undergoing. It is not even sure ift the ground of the river could be reached by diving in any spout. And even if so, it was a mudy ground. How would you search that? By gropping through it all along the river from were Isildur jumped in through the Gladdenfields? And to search for Isildur if he had worn the Ring still? Well how could you find him? He was invisible still if he had worne the Ring? A dead body invisble und probably underwater at least lying on the ground (so no shadow to see him). A search for that would require a very special force consisting of high-elves only which could see in both worlds at once. How many of this were available?
And than again: What if one of the searchers would have found the Ring? How could they be sure he would not have done the same as Isildur - taken the Ring to be his own? On the other hand, they considered Sauron to be dead. And as long as the Ring was lost, they could use their own Rings to bring healing to terribly hurt world of Middle-Earth with out any risc. They might be acused to be to short sighted or to take the easiest course they had, but that is quiet diffrent from being clueless.

Respectfully
Findegil