Return of the King Oscar Predictions (and post-Oscar Comments)

[Mister Underhill]

The Great Underhillo's powers of prognostication have not yet been tested, but I admit I wasn't expecting such a strong showing at the Globes. I may have to eat my words come February, but we'll see. A Golden Globe win does not equal a lock for Oscar. The DGA Awards will be a much better indicator IMO. If Jackson wins that, things will look pretty good for an Oscar for him and for RotK. <P>As far as Kransha's question regarding actors and the distinction between supporting and starring, I think the way it works is that the studios submit their entries to the various categories. So they are the ones to decide where they think their actors have the best shot if it's a close call between starring and supporting. I haven't been keeping an eye on the trades this year so I'm not too hip to what sorts of campaigns Newline has been running for RotK.<p>[ 11:00 AM January 26, 2004: Message edited by: Mister Underhill ]

[Lathriel]

I was so happy yesterday when I watched he Golden Globes. LOTR won in every single category that it was nominated and it dominated the Golden Globes!!!!!! <BR>I think ROTK will have a pretty good chance at the Oscars,at least for the nominations which are tomorrow I think.<BR>I think ROTK will do well but then again i am very optimistic unlike some of you!<BR>Anyway One movie to rule them all.<P>

[Kransha]

For the oscars, I believe that, even though RotK is epic, it won't win any of the most coveted oscars, despite winning 4 out of 4 of its nominated Golden Globes). It is great, but the fact that is fantasy and based on a book may deny it the little golden man on the pedestal.<P>I wonder how nominees would be chosen, since its hard to tell the difference between a starring actor and supporting role in RotK. I would say that PJ deserved an oscar for organizing such a tremendous project, Sean Astin for a beautiful and apt portrayal of Sam, and possibly Viggo Mortenson, for coming out of nowhere as a sueprisingly good actor. For supporting, Ian MacKellan, Bernard Hill, both very good in their roles (even though Theoden was a little twisted from book-to-script).

[Lalaith]

I'm no Academy expert but from what I've seen on various sites, the only LotR actor who seems to have any nomination buzz at all is Sean Astin. <BR>I think Ian McKellen is the best actor in the ensemble - wasn't he nominated for FotR?

[Failivrin]

Yes, he lost out to Jim Broadbent in Iris.<P>ooooooooh, i'm absolutely SEETHING about the Golden Globes! I cannot believe that Johnny Depp and PotC didn't win their categories. I always knew that the Oscars were political but i had hoped that the GG's would be a bit better and he was OBVIOUSLY the best actor i nthe category. LiT didn't deserve either of those awards, it only won them because it wasn't a summer blockbuster and Bill Murray plays the Hollywood cicuit. not even ROTK's well deserved triumph can make up for JD not winning seeing as he is my favourite actor and everything.<P>But now i have more hope for ROTK at the Oscars! let's hope Mystic River or something equally terrible like LiT doesn't win eveything. (i'm on an anti-LiT crusade now :it's not a comedy film, it's a drama)

[Lalaith]

Ah well, Jim Broadbent is a honey, so that's not so bad.<BR>I've seen LiT and thought it was ok but I'm really not as wild about it as most of the critics seem to be. And I thought the dialogue was rather pedestrian, I really don't think it deserves a screenplay Oscar. Mind you, I've got reservations about the LotR screenplay too, maybe I'm just an old fusspot. <BR>As for best actor, Bill Murray was ok but he was so much better in Groundhog Day.

[Gorwingel]

<BLOCKQUOTE>quote:<HR>The Great Underhillo's powers of prognostication have not yet been tested, but I admit I wasn't expecting such a strong showing at the Globes.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE><P>I wasn't expecting it either! And I am the one who is confident about its Oscar chances! Last night was utterly shocking...<BR>But on to the predictions...<P>I believe that it is going to receive a handful of awards. Most likely a ton of tech nods and of course the main ones.<BR>Here are my predictions...<P>Most Definitely:<BR>Best Picture<BR>Best Director<BR>Art Direction<BR>Visual Effects<BR>Makeup<BR>Cinematography<BR>Sound Editing<BR>Sound<P>Not Sure about:<BR>Costume (This could be a little iffy. FOTR was nominated but lost, and TTT wasn't nominated at all. But I think they will get the nod)<BR>Score (FOTR won, TTT wasn't nominated, but they just got the Globe, so most likely they will get the nod. But I still think there is a chance that it won't happen)<BR>Song (Could still be a little iffy)<P>Won't happen:<BR>Acting Nods (I will be very shocked if Sean Astin or any of the other actors recieve a nomination, I just don't believe it is going to happen. I would think that if they were going to receive a nomiation they would have recieved one from at least one other major critics group already)

[Lalaith]

It's funny that TTT score wasn't even nominated. Overall I think it is the best of three, it's certainly the cd of the three that I play most often.

[Lalaith]

STOP PRESS....<BR>Oscar Nominations are announced - RotK tops the lot with eleven nominations!<BR>No RotK actor has been nominated though - sorry, Astin fans.<BR>Two surprises elsewhere - Cold Mountain not nommed for best picture, and Scarlett Johannson not nommed for best supporting actress for LiT. Serves the studio right for trying it on, I think - no WAY was that a supporting role. <BR>Oh, and Jonny got his nom for PotC

[Arathiriel]

I am happy ROTK got nominated for Best Picture and Best Director but I am incredibly sad Sean Astin did not receive what I thought was a well-deserved nomination!<p>[ 9:19 AM January 27, 2004: Message edited by: Arathiriel ]

[The Saucepan Man]

Bah, you beat me to it, Lalaith. <P>The BBC is describing RotK as having "taken the nominations by storm". The 11 categories in which it has been nominated are:<P>Art Direction<BR>Visual Effects<BR>Editing<BR>Costume Design<BR>Make-Up<BR>Sound<BR>Music (Score)<BR>Music (Song) – Into the West<BR>Best Adapted Screenplay<BR>Best Director<BR>Best Picture<P>Since I have not seen many of the other nominated films, I cannot offer a personal opinion (although I very much suspect that I would go for RotK). However, the momentum certainly seems to be going in RotK's favour. At least five of those (Art Direction, Visual Effects, Costume Design, Make-Up and Score) must be dead certs. And I think the likelihood of Best Picture and Best Director is getting stronger by the minute.

[Lathriel]

I am sooooooo happy they got nominated for best costume, I think that will be easy to win since so much detail went into those clothes.<BR>I am glad in general that LOTR got so many nominations and Cold mountain only got four nominations. Awwww poor Cold mountain. NOT!

[Elentári_O_Most_Mighty_1]

I would so love ROTK to get best picture. Best Director would be cool too...it would kind of be like thanking him for the whole lot...and come on, LOTR doesn't have any more chances, because that's it.<P>So...how many did Cold Mountain get? Because it got 13 nominations in some award thing when ROTK got 12...on the other hand it got 1 Golden Globe as opposed to ROTK's 4...<P>Apparently a large proportion of the people voting for Golden Globes are foreign...which the Telegraph was suggesting as the reason The Office won...apparently most people in the audience (and the presenters) didn't know what it was, nor who Ricky Gervais was...

[Iaurhirwen]

It seems as though our biggest threat in the Oscars is going to be the film <I>Master and Commander</I>witch recieved 10 nominations (1 less than RotK). I've never seen this film. I have to wonder what it's chances are, it didn't recieve any golden globes after all (with the minscule bearing that has on Oscar results) <P>I don't know. I guess we'll find out in February. I suggest praying to the Valar everyday

[Sleeping Beauty]

I shall be praying. "Please oh please let the Oscars allow a write-in campaign for Ian Mckellen for Best Supporting Actor at least. Or maybe Bernard Hill." I guess there was too good of acting for any of the actors to get nominated. They all did such a good job, they couldn't pick. But I'm proud of the movie. 11 nominations. W00t!

[Finwe]

Yes, indeed. We must start praying.<P>*hurriedly builds a portable shrine next to her computer and starts praying to Elbereth*<P>A Elbereth Gilthoniel,<BR>O menel palan-diriel,<BR>Give LotR the Oscars please,<BR>Not other movies, stupid hunks of cheese.<P><BR> (I couldn't think of anything else that rhymed with "please.") <P>I think that LotR definitely deserves Best Director and Best Picture. God knows, <I>everyone</I> has worked hard enough on it.

[Shy Hobbit]

I'm suprised about the noms for Best Picture and Adapted Screenplay, though I doubt they'll win, that's just the way the Acadamy is. It's a crying shame that neither Sean or Elijah got the nominations they both deserved. Boo. At least if it loses Best Picture, it won't lose to Cold Mountain. I've never seen this film, but it seems like any film featuring Kidman or Zellweger dominates the categories. Actually I haven't seen any of these films that RotK is up against, but many of them I'd like to see. I hear good things about The Last Samurai, and Master and Commander has one of our own boys in it So I think I could overlook hard feelings if either of them win. <P> Oh well. With none of the LotR cast up for any awards, I'll give my full support to Mr. Depp for his fabulous performance

[Lalaith]

Well the Last Samurai isn't nominated so therefore is unlikely to win...

[Mister Underhill]

Well, well, well. It appears that I may be feeling for Oscar's pulse somewhere in the vicinity of the stomach.

Nevertheless, I'll stick by my prediction -- unless Jackson wins the DGA award, in which case I may have to recant. It's not like the Academy to "wait to reward all three", but then again I guess there's never quite been a situation like LotR. Whether it wins or not, it has been an extraordinary accomplishment.

Interesting that Master and Commander had such a strong showing. I wasn't expecting so much out of it, but I guess Peter Weir is highly respected and for some reason the Academy loves Russell Crowe.

That fact that Depp got the nod for his silly (though accomplished) turn in PotC may be a sign that the Academy is moving away from its trademark stodginess.

I think Miramax's aggressive campaigning tactics finally backfired on Cold Mountain. Politics, anyone?

My prediction for Hans Zimmer didn't happen. I think the only real competition for RotK in Score is Finding Nemo.

Lack of a Sound Editing nomination may indicate that Sound will go in another direction, but Makeup seems like a lock, as is, I would think, Visual Effects.

Friday is the deadline for DGA ballots and the awards are on February 7. Very interesting.

[ 12:27 PM January 27, 2004: Message edited by: Mister Underhill ]

[Theron Bugtussle]

I agree with the people that say the Oscars are overrated, political, Hollywood-insider garbage. I have watched them <I>one time</I> in the last 20 years. I was stuck in a hotel room in Thrown Away, Kentucky, with nothing but a pizza and a couple of bottles of wine. <P>Though I understand rooting (cheering) for your favorite movie(s), whether it gets an award or not is meaningless. That is, to normal, everyday people.<P>I mean, if your movie (whatever it is) gets the awards you are hoping for, and the next day, you excitedly bring it up with your schoolmates or co-workers, you know what they are going to say? "Jerk. Get a life." And you can walk away muttering, "What do you know? It's a great movie."<P>And if it does not win, your schoolmates or co-workers will say, "Ha! We told you it was no good." In which case, you can walk away muttering, "What do you know? It's a great movie."<P>So I ask you, what is the difference?<P>P.S. Anyway, what is wrong with <I>Titanic</I>?<P>--Edit--<BR>Further evidence of worthlessness of Oscars and the nominating process:<BR>1. Ian McKellen and Sean Astin not nominated for RotK.<BR>2. John Wayne got his first (only?) "Best Actor" in his twilight years. Shows you what THEY know...<p>[ 12:43 PM January 27, 2004: Message edited by: Theron Bugtussle ]

[HCIsland]

Someone earlier asked about the nominations that Cold Mountain got and it's 6.<P>Leading Actor (Jude Law)<BR>Supporting Actress (Renee Zellweger)<BR>Cinematography<BR>Film Editing<BR>Score<BR>Song<P>Just a quick question. Didn't the Towers soundtrack not get a nomination for score because of a rule restricting this catagory to non-sequels? I guess that rule has been recanted.<P>H.C.

[Finwe]

Despite the fact that the Academy is reputed to be a quagmire of prejudiced snobs, I still think that it's fun to follow the awards. It gives you the general opinion of some people about movies, and it's always fun to cheer for "your" movie against someone else's. Competition makes the world go 'round, don't you know? (Or that may be just because I'm Indian. )

[Estelyn Telcontar]

If the information I read is correct, the Oscar nomination of RotK already is a record - it's the first time that all three movies of a trilogy have been nominated in a row.

[Eruwen]

<BLOCKQUOTE>quote:<HR>If the information I read is correct, the Oscar nomination of RotK already is a record - it's the first time that all three movies of a trilogy have been nominated in a row.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE><P>You mean Star Wars didn't even get nominations like this? Interesting....<P>I am actually quite scared for the Best Makeup category. The people working on POTC did a great job with Johnney Depp, so we might have a little competition in that one. As for the others, I think we have the majority of them practically already given to ROTK. <P>I was just surprised that ROTK wasn't nominated for Screenplay in Golden Globes. Hopefully it will win at the Oscars anyway.

[Failivrin]

i screamed and cried and danced and talked to my Johnny Depp poster when i read about his nomination. i CAN'T BELIEVE IT! i doubt if he will win, but it's so wonderful that he was nominated 1) because he deserved to be and he is amazing and 2) because it may represent cahnges in the academy.<P>Zellweger had better win for Supporting Actress because she thoroughly deserved it, even though i did like Holly Hunter in thirteen (but she's already won!)<P>as for the Make- up, i think the PotC make up was good on Johnny but it didn't really stand out on anyone else, you know? it could give LOTR a run for it's money.<P>Obviously I'd like to see ROTK win all the categories it was nomnated in (any hope of adapted screenplay for Tolkien?) but i would also like to see PotC win as many as possible because i think it would signal real change and i would like Johnny to win Best Actor because HE DESERVES IT. if he doesn't win i don't mind who does as long as it's not bill murray.<P>i like Scarlett Johansson, but sh'es only 19- she has plenty of time to win

[Rose Cotton]

I can't deny that "Master and Commander" is a good movie.<P>However,<P>RotK is much more deserving considering the 7 years of effort put into it and it's predessesors.

[Iaurhirwen]

Even though I am highly saddened that none of the characters from RotK received best actor (actress) or supporting actor (actress), in a way it is fitting.<BR> <BR>In Middle-Earth, no member in the fellowship, or any person in the battle against Sauron was viewed as more important than the other. They all had an important role in the events as they occurred. In the same way, none of the actors and actresses where singled out as the most important. <P>Yes, it is horrible that none of them received a nomination. We all know that their acting is some of the best out there. <P>Does anyone see this concept??

[Eruwen]

I get what you're saying, Iaurhirwen, but Aragorn and Frodo did kinda stand out as main actors just because they were the two that ROTK was pretty much about. But as for supporting actor, I guess we could all just say that we wanted our favorite to be nominated cause they all would tie as to who would go in that category. <P>But you're right....LOTR did have some great acting in it. It could have at least been chosen for supporting actor, you know? [*cough*]Sean Astin!!![*cough*]

[Lathriel]

I heard Peter Jackson saying soemthing like "Sean Astin's performance had moved many people to tears so I guess that is the reward he gets." <BR>Something like that anyway, meaning too bad he didn't get nominated.

[Gorwingel]

The noms made me so happy!<BR>No Cold Mountain! Wonderful <BR>Johnny Depp! Yeah!<BR>A Mighty Wind for best song! Shocking!<P>After hearing the nominations I still think ROTK is going to do rather well. ROTK has gone up against all of these films before and has won. The only film that I think has even a slight chance of actually winning best picture is Mystic River. Because it is the one that the people who don't like big, epic films (like LOTR) are going to vote for.<P>But ROTK is going to win, I have no doubt about it now

[Kalimac]

I thought "A Mighty Wind" was hilarious, though I'm not sure how well the song handles by itself. I agree that Sean Astin was robbed, though. I've seen a lot of those other performances, and his is the one I'll be remembering in years to come. Too bad they can't have some kind of ensemble award for the LOTR cast. (Nine Oscars shaped like the Nine Walkers, perhaps? Nah, they'd never do it).

[Sleeping Beauty]

lol....Little Gold statues of hobbits, a wizard, men and a dwarf. I can see it now. That would be cool though. I wish the academy could honor them the way the fans do.

Hullo! I'm new to this forum, and I want to join in this thread, since the nomination was my reason to get involved in a LotR forum so...<P>Well, I think RotK has the chance, but the rivalry is quite difficult. I mean there are lots of what I'd call "difficult drama movies" this year. And the Oscar committee loves them.

[mollecon]

Yeah, it'll be exiting to see what happens...<BR> <BLOCKQUOTE>quote:<HR>RotK is much more deserving considering the 7 years of effort put into it and it's predessesors.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE><BR>Maybe, but that's the problem, isn't it? The way the Academy Awards are 'geared', they cannot absorb a project like LotR - which in reality, like the books they are based on, is one story divided in 3 for practical reasons. Of course, the Academy <I>could</I> overcome that hurdle by handing out one (or more) 'special' awards - but we'll see

[Lalaith]

For what it's worth, bookies in the UK are considering not accepting bets on RotK because it's such a surefire win.

[Firefoot]

I haven't seen very many of the movies that were nominated for anything - Other than RotK the only movies that I have seen are PotC, Seabiscuit, and Finding Nemo, all of which I thought were really good movies. I hope that RotK wins a lot but I really don't know what it is up against. I think it has a real shot for Best Picture.

[HCIsland]

<BLOCKQUOTE>quote:<HR>You mean Star Wars didn't even get nominations like this? Interesting....<HR></BLOCKQUOTE><BR>It's not even close.<P>Total nominations for the original Star Wars trilogy: 17 (3 each for Art Direction, Sound & Original Score; Star Wars got 1 each for Best Picture, Director, Supporting Actor (Alec Guiness), Original Screenplay, Editing, Costumes & Visual Effects; Jedi got one nom for Sound Editting as well.<P>Total won: 7 (Star Wars: Editing, Art Direction, Costumes, Sound, Visual Effects, Original Score; Empire: Sound; Jedi: squat)<P>Total nominations for Lord of the Rings: 30 (3 each for Best Picture, Editing, Art Direction, Sound & Visual Effects; 2 each for Direction (Fellowship & King), Adapted Screenplay (Fellowship & King), Costumes (Felloship & King), Make-up (Fellowship & King), Original Score (Fellowship & King, Original Song (Fellowship & King); and 1 each for Supporting Actor (Ian McKellen in Fellowship), Cinematography (Fellowship) & Sound Editing (Towers).<P>Total won: 6 and counting (Visual Effects for Fellowship & Towers; Fellowship: Cinematography, Make-up, Original Score; Towers: Sound Editing; King: ?????)<P>As for King not being nominated for any acting awards, I can't say I'm surprised. Nothing against Sean Austin, but I don't think his performance stands out in the kind of way that attracts Oscar consideration.<P>I gotta say that, on the whole, I'm very pleased with what Oscar choose to recognize this year. This might be one of those rare years where it might be worth watching.<P>H.C.<p>[ 4:47 PM January 28, 2004: Message edited by: HCIsland ]

[Sapphire_Flame]

I have heard from those of high repute that whichever film won Best Pic at the Globes will *most likely* get Best Pic at the Oscars. So there is that to think on...<P>I was disappointed that Sean Astin wasn't nominated; but the fact that Annie Lennox with "Into the West" was nominated for Best Song helped make up for it. Hopefully she'll get the nod, it was a really great song.<P>Abedithon le,<P>~*~Aranel~*~

[Mister Underhill]

More good news for those scrappy Kiwi filmmakers: <A HREF="http://www.hsx.com/" TARGET=_blank>The Hollywood Stock Exchange</A> has both Jackson and RotK as early favorites for Oscar. HSX has had a strong record of predicting winners over the past few years. It will be interesting to keep an eye on the trading there over the next couple of weeks!

[Failivrin]

i can't say i'm surprised that Sean Astin wasn't nominated either. Personally i would like to see Ken Watanabe win, because his performance was truly magnificent. he seemed to capture perfectly the essence of the Samurai. Or Benicio Del Toro. i aven't seen 21 Grams, but i lvoe Benicio Del Toro, he rocks and i would love to see him win. I can't remember the others apart from the dude in House of Sand and Fog and i haven't heard rave reviews of him, so you know.<P>I would like ROTK to win best picture, obviously and i think that now it has a very very good chance. Seabiscuit doesn't have a hope in hell. if i can speak for the UK here, the trailer left me absolutely cold. so much, in fact that i didn't even bother going to see the film. I mean, hoenstly, a film about some american horse and a jockey played by Tobey Maguire? NO WAY. and seeing as a lot of the Academy members are British, or atleast non american, i predict it will probably come last. It was just so gosh darn american that i can't really see it appealing hugely to anyone outside of america or huge horse people or huge Tobey Maguire people <P>um, Lost in Translation. i really hope that doesn't wi nanything. It doesn't deserve it. the only good thing about that film was Scarlett Johansson and she wasn't nominated. Master and Commander i found historically good but humourless and rather boring. I can't remember the other nominee.