Return of the King Oscar Predictions (and post-Oscar Comments)

[Gorwingel]

I know it is a little early to be talking about this, but you have to see this article<P><A HREF="http://www.theonering.net/perl/newsview/8/1045411574" TARGET=_blank>Taking another look at Oscar nominees</A><P>Most of the article just talks about the Oscars in general, and the choices that the academy made.<BR>Midway through the article the critic talks about Peter Jackson not getting the nomination for best director, this line is probably the most striking though.<P> <BLOCKQUOTE>quote:<HR> What about the slight suffered by another director, the unnominated Peter Jackson, whose ongoing "Lord of the Rings" trilogy is the most popular with audiences? Here, more than likely, many voters deferred on "Rings" as a work in progress.<P>"This year, it's `Chicago,'" my smartest movie-reporting friend told me right after the announcements. "Next year, `The Lord of the Rings' runs the table."<BR> <HR></BLOCKQUOTE><P>The bottom part, Wow! I hope that is true, because it sure gives me hope that next year is the year. (I'll try not to get my hopes up too high though, I still have to see ROTK) I personally don't really know what "runs the table" means, but if they are comparing it to "Chicago" it must be good, I would think.

[Brinniel]

It is hard to say how ROTK will do at the Oscars, as the movie has yet to come out. But this movie is expected to be better than the other two and should be more satisfying as it will have an actual ending, so I do think it will do better than TTT at the Oscars.<P>But even if ROTK gets plenty of nominations, it doesn't mean they will do well at winning them. I believe last year FOTR got 13 nominations, but they only won four. <P>It also depends on what ROTK has to compete against. And though we already know of some of those competitors (The Matrix sequels, for example), there are several masterpiece movies still being filmed that we have yet to know of.<P>I say it's best for us to wait for the outcome of the Oscars this year and wait to see ROTK ourselves before trying to make any meaningful guesses on how the movie will do at the 2004 Academy Awards.

[mollecon]

Well, apart from politics & blatant bribery there is a practical problem - the Academy Awards were never geared for this kind of movie(s). Even The Star Wars movies can be seen seperately, but there's no way it can be done with this trilogy - it's one movie really & should be judged as such. Where's the category? The fair thing to do would probably be to give PJ a special Oscar for outstanding achievement in impossible film making

[Rynoah, the Overly-Happy]

I don't really hold Oscars in such high esteem anymore; ever since they gave <I>Titanic</I> all those Oscars, I have lost faith in them. And it didn't help that <I>Gladiator</I> got the Oscar for Best Picture either. So even if TTT, FotR and (next year) RotK don't win Oscars, they still will be the best ones in the business, no matter what the Academy says.

[Brinniel]

Don't you remember how popular Titanic was, though? Everyone loved that movie, it seemed. It took a couple of years for everyone to realize how corny it was (including myself). But that movie did have great special effects and a great soundtrack, though.<BR>You didn't like Gladiator? I only saw part of that movie, but thought it was well done.<P>Have you ever noticed that the Academy seems to favor movies with historical signifigence? I mean, what do all these movies have in common? The movies, Chicago, A Beautiful Mind, Gosford Park, Titanic, Gladiator, The Hours all take place sometime in history. And of course, fantasy is the opposite of history, even if LOTR has a historical touch to it. The Academy Awards have never favored fantasy movies and they never will.

[Pipperin]

I was really upset when I heard the PJ wasn't nominated! But they might be waiting for next year, everyone knew there would be three parts, and if they gave them what they really deserved for every movie, then it wouldn't be fare to the other movies!

[Gorwingel]

Hey, at the time I liked Titanic and thought it was a wonderful movie, I don't know why everyone gives it such a hard time. but that is another forum...<BR>About the Matrix films, that will be interesting about how that turns out, the original Matrix movie won the most Oscars of that year, but they were all technical. I doubt it would be nominated for best picture though because I just don't think it will have the acting needed for that kind of nominations.<BR>I have not lost faith in the Oscars, I just think it has become way too political. The only reason Chicago, The Hours, and Gangs of New York got nominated is the wonderful campagning of Harvey Weinstein and his friends at Miramax, (even though Mr. Weinstein is also a producer of LOTR) Though I still hope and think that ROTK is going to get many nominations when it comes out, just as icing on the cake of a wonderful well done trilogy. (also I think that some of the people at the academy are kind of mad that Star Wars was not honored, because I think that they would have given it to them if it had came out now) and like I said in another post, the academy is saying just with the TTT nomination that LOTR is more Godfather than Star Wars, and that is always a good thing to think about.

[Brinniel]

Chicago did deserve all those nominations, though. I saw it twice and absolutely loved it. But you have to appreciate music and dance to like it.<BR>My mom thinks the reason why TTT got few nominations was because FOTR took over the Oscar nominations last year. TTT is like old news. But she also thinks ROTK will get more nominations next year, as it is the "big finale." My mom hasn't read the books, yet I think she believes ROTK will be the best. Shows to you what non-LOTR fans are predicting for the last part of the trilogy.

[Luthien_ Tinuviel]

Well, we've all seen it now. What Oscars do you think ROTK will win, and what do you want it to win? <A HREF="http://www.theonering.net/scrapbook/group/1266/view/11690" TARGET=_blank>Here's</A> a list of all of the categories that are being campaigned for. <P>I would personally love to see Sean Astin win Best Supporting Actor, and of course Best Director for PJ and Best Picture for ROTK. I've been to some Oscar prediction sites, and it seems that most everyone, acclaimed movie critic or otherwise, is fairly positive that ROTK will win at least one of the two "big" awards. And there aren't many real threats to its success, either, especially since I heard that Cold Mountain was snubbed at some award-thing-or-other. Beyond that, I think it will easily win most of the technical awards.<P>Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think the nominations will be announced on January 29th, followed by the ceremony itself on February 26th. Don't count on those dates, though, as I'm going by memory.<P>EDIT: Typed Chicago when I meant Cold Mountain. Don't mind me.<p>[ 10:38 PM January 18, 2004: Message edited by: Luthien_ Tinuviel ]

[Gorwingel]

Well currently if you go on any of the Oscar prediction websites, ROTK is doing extremely well. Basically everyone is in agreement that they will receive a Best Picture, and a Best Director nomination, and on <A HREF="http://www.goldderby.com" TARGET=_blank>Gold Derby.com</A>, out of the eight very prominent film reviewers, 7 say that ROTK is going to win the best drama Golden Globe (an extremely good indicator). Even though it only has four nominations to Cold Mountain's eight.<P>Additionally ROTK has won the most critics awards, including the New York Critic's Circle (who usually give out their award to an independent film), and the Critic's Choice Award. <P>As I look back at the responses in this thread, and see what we originally thought would be challengers. I think we can all agree that The Matrix sequels didn't turn out extremely well, and that they most likely pose no threat to ROTK's award chances. And some of the other films that were expected to be frontrunners have been weaker than expected.<P>But we will see. The Golden Globes are next weekend on the 25th, and I think the Oscar nominations come on the Tuesday after that. And then of course we will all see what happens on February 29th, Academy Awards Day (for me, big fan ). It will either be a very good day for fans of the films, or an extremely sad one.

[SamwiseGamgee]

I've got to say that I find it hard to really bother about the Oscars RotK wins. Sure, it'd be great if PJ wins best director and RotK gets best film, but other than that it's not hugely important. Why? Well for one, the Oscars are a political, corrupt and ridiculous affair anyway- that's why they were so scared of Moore last year- and I don't think PJ himself really cares if he gets Oscar recognition (Nor, I would think, do most of the cast). The Golden Globes and BAFTAs are still reasonably pure, so those mean more, I feel. As an aside, there was a quote I read which said Christopher Lee would resign from his seat in the Academy if RotK didn't win Best Picture. Fairly sure, then.<BR>Secondly, in 20 or 30 years time when my kids want to stay up and watch a great movie, I'm not going to go and get the one with all the Oscars (Titanic), am I? I'm going to go and get what is genuinely a great film. Everyone whose seen RotK knows it's amazing- isn't it slightly insulting to say it needs to clean up at the Oscars for them to know that? Great films- trully great films- survive whether awarded or not. The Lord of the Rings trilogy are great films.

[andreadawn]

Since seeing the first two films I felt that Peter Jackson deserved the Oscar for best director. I felt however that the Academy was waiting for the last film to give it to him (maybe they felt they would get too much flak for awarding the same director three consecutive years.) If he dosen't get the Oscar this year however, it will be an outrage! My love of the films aside, he needs to be recognized for the tremendous accomplishment he achieved.

[Failivrin]

I think it's become fashionable to criticise Chicago now, but it DID deserve best picture because of the amazing choreography. everything worked in it: the dancing and singing were sublime and the script, although a little ropey, entertained between the numbers. i feel the Renee Zellweger should've won best actress of ver Nicole Kidman, who was balatantly campaigning for an Oscar. I hope Renee wins for Cold Mountain this year.<P>Let's take a lokk for ROTK though:<P>i think make up and maybe special FX are dead certs.<P>actor nominations: i can only see another supporting actor nomination there, really. perhaps for Ian McKellen again but i don't think he will win. Ken Watanabe in The Last Samurai was fantastic and deserves that award more than anyone esle. Samurai is also a more 'academy'-ish film.<P>Best Picture: i don't think there is much hope really. Just look what we've seen already: Cold Mountain and The Last Samurai (both academy films) and Lost in Translation, who's 'cool' will carry in the Academy. I think FOTR should have won two years ago.<P>Best director: maybe a chance, actually. you know, last film and all. but there is always Antony Minghella and Sofia Coppola.<P>i don't think ROTK will do that well; i think it will maybe get about 3 or 4 for technical stuff and things like music, but i don;t see any of the big gongs going it's way. . but hey, let's wait and see.

[Lathriel]

I would love to see PJ win an oscar especially since turning LOTR into a movie is a reallly tough job that must have caused many headaches among the way.<BR>I want to see ROTK do well at the oscars. I think it definitly beat Cold Mountain.<BR>Anyway I will keep my fingers crossed.

[The Perky Ent]

I have a strange feeling that if ROTK doesn't win best picture, a huge explosion will go off in the acadamy spelling "LOTR or else!"<P>That's always been a reoccuring though of mine. I seriously don't think anyone would go to that level, but people are definitly willing to send threatning and blackmailing letters! (just kidding)

[Gorwingel]

<BLOCKQUOTE>quote:<HR>Best Picture: i don't think there is much hope really. Just look what we've seen already: Cold Mountain and The Last Samurai (both academy films) and Lost in Translation, who's 'cool' will carry in the Academy. I think FOTR should have won two years ago.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE><P>Well most people say that ROTK is going to get a nomination, and that it is the frontrunner for the win. Cold Mountain (which I have seen) has really been losing buzz, and Lost in Translation is a film that some people like, but others think it is very much overated (does anyone know if LIT is on DVD yet?)<P>The Last Samurai didn't even get the Golden Globe nod. Which means that it most likely has a very small chance of getting the Oscar nod.<P> <BLOCKQUOTE>quote:<HR>Best director: maybe a chance, actually. you know, last film and all. but there is always Antony Minghella and Sofia Coppola <HR></BLOCKQUOTE><P>Antony Minghella didn't even get nominated for the Director's Guild award. Peter Jackson did. Additonally Minghella has aready gotten an Oscar for The English Patient, a film that many agree is much stronger that Cold Mountain. Peter Jackson is the nominee with the largest number of nominations and no wins, which makes him very much a frontrunner for it.<P>And Additionally I think that the Academy is looking at Sophia, thinking that she is young, and that she will have plenty of chances in the future to win. LIT is only her second film.<P>Well good news on the Oscar front... ROTK just took the Producers Guild award for best picture! <A HREF="http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20040118/ap_on_en_mo/brf_producers_guild_awards_3" TARGET=_blank>Yahoo News</A>. It beat Mystic River, Seabiscuit, Cold Mountain and others.<P>I personally think that the cast and crew of LOTR, even though they are acting like they don't need the award, really want it. Ian McKellen did say in an interview that he thought that the Oscar really didn't matter, and that these films would live on anyway, but it still would be wonderful if they got it. I really would like if it won though. I have been watching the Oscars for my entire life, and the during the last few years I have been greatly dissapointed about their choices for Best Picture. I personally don't think that they are as corrupted as people think, but then I don't exactly agree with the whole treating the race like a political contest.<P>But we will see

[Arvedui III]

I don't think that LIT is out yet, although I would like it to be. <P>Anyway, my irrational mind is of the opinion that RotK need to be nominated and win everything. Every award. All the actor, FX, editing, screenplay, picture, the whole nine yards. But, that has about as much chance of coming true as I have of becoming the king of Gondor. <P>So what little rational thought I have on RotK's Oscar chances are these: I think that Jackson needs to be, and will be rewarded with the Best Directer award. If Sean Astin gets nominated, I'll be happy. But I'm trying not to get my hopes up for Best Picture. I too have seen Cold Mountain, (also read the book) and it was great. It is the serious, gritty, literary, classically-placed film that could rob RotK. A Beautiful Mind did it to FotR. <P>Cold Mountain also got eight Golden Globe nods while RotK managed only four. That has to count for something. And, the fact the Cold Mountain's not as popular may win it votes from the elitists that the academy seems to posses in such numbers. Plus, there's the sea-epic, Master and Commander to consider, and Seabiscet as well. Who knows? It'd make my day if Finding Nemo got a nod. But I hope that Return of the King wins. As one of my fanish friends said, "If it doesn't, we're bombing the academy." <p>[ 8:36 PM January 18, 2004: Message edited by: Arvedui III ]

[Luthien_ Tinuviel]

<BLOCKQUOTE>quote:<HR> Anyway, my irrational mind is of the opinion that RotK need to be nominated and win everything. Every award. All the actor, FX, editing, screenplay, picture, the whole nine yards. But, that has about as much chance of coming true as I have of becoming the king of Gondor. <BR> <HR></BLOCKQUOTE><P>That's definately the way I feel as well. But I doubt that would happen. Rats! If only everything was like we wanted it to be.....<P>Does anyone know anything about the Screen Actors' Guild Awards? Have they announced nominations yet? I'm not sure how much this fits on this thread, but it's not really worth making another awards thread, is it?

[Gorwingel]

<BLOCKQUOTE>quote:<HR>Does anyone know anything about the Screen Actors' Guild Awards? Have they announced nominations yet? I'm not sure how much this fits on this thread, but it's not really worth making another awards thread, is it?<HR></BLOCKQUOTE><P>Yes, they announced nominations last Thursday. ROTK was nominated for Best Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture <P>Here is the complete list of nominees...<BR><A HREF="http://www.sagawards.com/nominations.shtml" TARGET=_blank>SAG Nominations</A>

[ainur]

Realistically: For Best Picture--Very Possible. They will likely award here for all three films. The Academy seems to love this kind of thing.<P>Best Director: Possible, but less likely. They might vote because of the commitment that it took to bring this story to the screen, but at the same time, "Return of the King" was weaker than "The Fellowship of the Ring" as a film, and they all know it. It might work against P. J.<P>Best Actor: Sorry, but I don't think that anyone stands out enough to win.<P>Best Supporting Actor: Sean Astin should win (deserves to win), but his lineage might work against him here. The Academy is mostly actors, and tend to resent inheritance of talent or familiarity with producers. Sean had an "in" to start his career because his parents were so famous, he grew up with people of power in Hollywood. This is not an advantage as most members of The Academy did not. His performance is powerful enough that he might over-ride this handicap though.<P>Best Actress: Who? Liv Tyler? Please.<P>Best Supporting Actress: I would vote for Miranda Otto in a heartbeat, but I don't think anyone in The Academy will. She was both beautiful and as tough as a noblewoman in dark times would need to be. Plus, she's fresh to them. They like that in female performers. That's her best chance, though. Probably not enough.<P>Best Adapted Screenplay: Not a chance. It completely diverged from the flavor of the book. Almost as badly as TTT, especially the characterization of Gandalf. Academy Fans of Tolkien will vote against it for that reason alone (not to mention the omission of Saruman's demise). It probably won't even get a nomination. It shouldn't.<P>Art Direction: A definite win, I think. The next best would be "The Last Samurai" and I don't think enough people in The Academy have seen it. No doubt they have video copies, but will they take the time to watch them? They have never seemed to in the past. They seem to vote their gut feelings here. This will work for the advantage of "The Return of the King." They already know what it looks like from the other films. And that it's brilliant and beautiful.<P>Soundtrack: Maybe. They're fickle.<P>Best Song: Probably not. It's hard to say. See above.<P>Gollum should win something, but I dont know what. There is no category for this kind of innovation. I think it will go the way of the Apes in "Greystoke: The Legend of Tarzan." Incredible, but there's no where to put them. At least the MTV awards had the right idea here. They just make up categories for stuff they like and want to recognize.<P>It will probably win many technical awards, as the other films have done in the past. It's an amazing achievment.

[Child of the 7th Age]

The interesting thing is that Rotk has a good shot for Best Pic and Best Director, but may not get a single nod in the acting category. Despite what I personally feel, I think Sean Astin is a long shot. And I can't see anyone else in the cast gaining a nomination.<P>Interestingly, someone over at The White Council awards thread mentioned that there have been only a few movies that have won Best Picture without at least one nod in the acting category. So if RotK did it, it would be beating the odds.<P>Too bad there's not an ensemble award on Oscar Night. RotK has had several awards and nominations for that, rightly so I believe. We need to keep our eye on that SAG ensemble nomination which is the closest thing they have to "best picture".

[Evisse the Blue]

I'm surprised no one mentions "Best image', "Special effects', "Best editing', 'Best costumes' - these are must wins, and ROTK is guaranteed to sweep them all. I for one don't care much of the Oscars, they never reflected the quality of movies, not even their popularity, so it's gotta be politics. And politics never interested me. it would be a nice sort of recognition if ROTK got best movie and PJ best director, but IMO, it's not really that important if they don't. One thing is dead certain: they'll surely steal the show at the Empire Awards. <BR>Btw, me and my friends were discussing Oscars and one of them said they should give away a special mention to ROTK by giving each actor an Oscar. I could see she had a point there: no actor really 'stood out' because the script wasn't made so that one should stand out,it's a story-drived script, not a character-driven one, but they all supported each other beautifully, and helped the story onwards. They were a real fellowship, and every one should get 'best supporting actor'. <BR>HEY -I got it! New Zealand should get 'best country in a motion picture'! (I stole that idea from an Empire ad! )

[Eruanna]

On the subject of awards. I have just read that RotK has been nominated in <B>twelve</B> categories of the BAFTAs, including Best Picture and Best Director. However "Cold Mountain" has received thirteen nominations!

[SamwiseGamgee]

The BAFTAs have tended to be kinder to LoTR in the past, not as elitist, which I find strange. The history of the Oscars is littered with miscarriages of justice, it might even be worth it happening so we can moan about it! :

[Lalaith]

I think Best picture/director is a distinct possibility. And the various technical Oscars other posters have mentioned. As for the main competition, I haven't seen Cold Mountain, so I can't judge there, but I have seen Lost in Translation, and IMO it is really a rather slight film that will I think date quickly. RotK is simply in a different league.<BR>But I don't think any actor in the ensemble, except Ian McKellen - and Andy Serkis! - really deserves an Oscar. Sorry. What I would like to see this year is Jonny Depp winning for Pirates (you know he's never even been nominated!) but I don't think that's going to happen.

[Mister Underhill]

Some astute observations here. For my own part, I think the skimpy number of Golden Globe nominations is telling. Don’t expect big things out of Oscar.

Best Picture: Not likely. As has been mentioned, I think it’s not as strong a film as Fellowship, leaving voters in an awkward position. Add in the fact that there is now a common perception that the “real” cut of the film will be released months later on DVD and the fact that the Academy almost never gives the award to “sequels” (The Godfather Part II is the only exception that I can think of), and I’d say you’re looking at a pretty long shot.

Best Director: Look out for Clint Eastwood. The Academy tends to reward more personal, intimate work. The performances of RotK are not its strong suit. Also, it’s widely known that a platoon of second-unit directors and a battalion of CGI artists had a big hand in making RotK a reality. I’ll be shocked if PJ walks away with a statue.

Adapted Screenplay: FotR didn’t win and TTT wasn’t even nominated. They may earn a nom here, but I doubt they’ll beat out the likes of Cold Mountain and Mystic River.

Score: Shore already won for FotR and there’s nothing much new here. Not likely. Academy favorite Hans Zimmer may get the nod for The Last Samurai.

Acting: The trilogy’s best shot was Ian McKellan for FotR. Astin may manage to land a nom here, but don’t count on it. Look for several Academy darlings to be nominated in the Supporting Actor category, making a win by Astin a near impossibility. It’s too bad the campaign for a Supporting Actor nom for Serkis wasn’t able to gain more momentum last year. He might’ve had more of a shot if the film had been better.

SFX categories and a sound award or two are reasonable bets, but Rings has lost Art Direction and Costume awards two years running, and there’s nothing new here. Master and Commander, The Last Samurai, and Cold Mountain will be contenders.

I wonder if the Chris Lee threat quoted above was made before (as I suspect) or after he was cut from the theatrical release.

I also predict grim chances for a SAG ensemble award. They’ve lost the past two years running, and the performances in RotK were not the strongest in the trilogy. I predict Mystic River. Robbins, Fishburne, Penn, Linney – these are actors’ actors. Seabiscuit also has some highly respected actors, and there’s a weird momentum around The Station Agent which makes them a strong dark horse candidate.

[ 12:55 PM January 19, 2004: Message edited by: Mister Underhill ]

[Kronos]

FOTR should have won. ROTK is too cut up too win in my opinion. You can really tell that a great deal had to be cut away and therefore the DVD EE will be the true picture. Far more than was the case for TTT and much much more than for FOTR.<P>The only way I can see PJ and ROTK winning is if the Academy decides to credit them for all three films but that would be wrong and against the spirit of the Oscar. After all it is for best film/director of 2003.

[Failivrin]

I don't see ChrisLee resigning after he was cut out and quite frankly, i think PJ deserves to lose the gong just for cutting out the Saruman/Wormtongue plot because i feel it let down the whole film not having them there and i also love both the actors <P>i don't see the Miranda Otto Supporting Actress: i love LOTR and i wouldn't vote for her. Before anyone could say anything i would be yelling RENEE ZELLWEGER RENEE ZELLWEGER! she's been nominated twice before and imo, both times deserved to win and lost. Her performance in Cold Mountain was truly exceptional; one of the best acting jobs of 2003 without a doubt and she deserves it more than anyone else. She is a hugely HUGELY talented actress and i tink 3rd time lucky is a convenient phrase here. If she doesn't win i shall have to hurt someone.<P>I would love to see Johnny Depp win for PotC because he was wonderful, or atleast get a nod, but i hardly think it will happen. It'll probably go to Bill Murray or Sean Penn.<P>I still think LIT is in with a good chance for Picture because let's face it, the Academy doesn't represent what the masses think; if so FOTR would've won 2001. And although Col Mountain maybe losing steam (it's not here in England, though), it is a historical epic love story adapted from a well loved, prize winning, respectable book with previous Oscar winners/nominees plus the token weirdo in it (Jack White) and has made a good haul at the box office. It's just the kind of film the Academy love. Also, Mystic River and Clint Eastwood for Director.<P>I hope they'll give something to the Trilogy though.

[Lalaith]

Take a look at this, it's supposed to be an Oscar predictor. <A HREF="http://film.guardian.co.uk/oscars2004/story/0,14064,1123089,00.html" TARGET=_blank>http://film.guardian.co.uk/oscars2004/story/0,14064,1123089,00.html</A> <BR>Now if anyone could tell me how to work it, I'd be mighty grateful...I never was any good at Excel.

[Luthien_ Tinuviel]

The document itself is confusing, but I think their main point is that whatever Best Picture nominee has won the most previous awards is also going to be the one to win the Oscar.

[Gorwingel]

<BLOCKQUOTE>quote:<HR>but Rings has lost Art Direction and Costume awards two years running<HR></BLOCKQUOTE><P>Your right about Art Direction, but TTT was not nominated for Costume last year.<P>I am going to stay by my prediction that ROTK is going to win best picture (right now I am so confident about it I would put money on it!). And I also think that Peter Jackson is going to win Best Director and the Director's Guild award. I don't care if the movie doesn't get any acting awards (Titanic had two acting nods, didn't win either of them, and was considered mainly an ensemble film), I personally don't think that any of that history is going to apply here. I just can't see any reason why they would give the award to any of the other films! (In my eye... Their not worthy! The others will become like a Beautiful...what?)<P>Oh and additionally if FOTR had not been the first film, it would have won best picture. I believe that they have been waiting to award ROTK the entire time.

[Mister Underhill]

TTT was not nominated for Costume last year

Ah yes, quite right. In which case I predict no Costume nomination for RotK.

[Evisse the Blue]

<BLOCKQUOTE>quote:<HR>In which case I predict no Costume nomination for RotK. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE><BR>Oh, man, that's robbery. I mean, what the heck. What are these Oscar dudes looking for anyway .

[Orominuialwen]

I think that RotK definitely deserves to win best picture. I will be furious at the academy if the don't give it that, but you can't expect to much from them. They are almost all highly politically motivated and often dislike movies such as RotK and the message that they present. I for one think that that is utterly unfair. Sorry, I'll stop my ranting now, I just strongly disagree with the general elitist politics of the academy. I'm positive that RotK will win the Visual Effects, in fact I don't see why anybody else would even bother to try. If I were making a movie with lots of spectacular FX, I would just delay the release until this year so as not to have to compete with RotK. All I can say is that if RotK doesn't win as many Oscars as possible and they go to a bunch of the drivel that passes for film these days instead, then somebody's gonna pay!!! <p>[ 3:45 PM January 20, 2004: Message edited by: Orominuialwen ]

[The Saucepan Man]

<BLOCKQUOTE>quote:<HR> As has been mentioned, I think it’s not as strong a film as Fellowship, leaving voters in an awkward position. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE><P>But surely that's your subjective view. Almost everything that I have read, in terms of reviews of the film and Oscar predictions, has nothing but praise for the film and hails it as the best of the trilogy. It really depends upon how the Academy views it, but I still reckon its in with a good chance of Best Picture, and that Jackson has a reasonable shout at Best Director.

[Mister Underhill]

Well naturally those are just my guesses and opinions. If I knew for sure, I'd be on my way to Vegas.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say right now that RotK will get a Best Picture nomination but will not win the Oscar.

We'll know soon enough about nominations -- they're due to be announced on Tuesday.

[ 11:51 PM January 24, 2004: Message edited by: Mister Underhill ]

[Elentári_O_Most_Mighty_1]

Do you think Sean Astin has a chance of even being nominated? Every other award seems to have ignored him entirely. I would love him to get it though...come on, he's got to be nominated at least!<BR>And I thought it was meant to be in LA, not Las Vegas...<BR>Come on, ROTK...you've got to beat Cold Mountain!!! Not that I've actually seen Cold Mountain...the ads didn't appeal to me. ROTK trailer on the other hand...woah, man! Amazing! And my friend agreed it was the best trailer she's ever seen, and she isn't LOTR crazy by any stretch of the imagination.

[Lalaith]

I think Mr Underhill meant that if he had the gift of foresight he would make a fortune on the roulette wheel or the card table, both commonly found, I believe, in Las Vegas.

[Child of the 7th Age]

Elentari,<P>Regarding Astin....<P>Astin's nomination is a longshot since he did not receive a nom from the Screen Actors' Guild or from other major groups. There were a number of smaller film critics' associations from which he did win an award or nomination: Utah, Las Vegas, Seattle (wins); Phoenix and Chicago (nomination only); Online Films Critics (still pending, I think). <P>He's apparently "resigned" to his fate according to a quote by Sean in Entertainment Weekly, 1/16:<P> <BLOCKQUOTE>quote:<HR><BR>"When conversation returns to that Oscar question, Astin remains unfailingly honest. An Academy member, he admits he'll likely vote for himself, because hey, ITS AN OSCAR! Still, he's pre-emptively pessimistic. 'I find myself almost depressed right now,' he says. 'Like I want to get the disappointment out of the way.'"<HR></BLOCKQUOTE><P>RotK may well be the first movie in a long, long time to win Oscars for best picture and director yet not get a single acting nomination (let alone an award). I would be pleasantly surprised to see Sean get an Oscar nomination, but my guess is that this is not going to happen. Too bad there's not an overall ensemble or cast award for the Oscars, as I think they would have a better shot at that.<P>Mr. Underhill --- Like Saucepan Man, I think all the signs point to the Best Picture and Director Oscars, and I will be surprised if that doesn't happen. I felt that way even before the Globes, and I think last night gave the film another shot in the arm.<p>[ 9:12 AM January 26, 2004: Message edited by: Child of the 7th Age ]

[Kransha]

Lord of the Rings and the Oscars:<P>Hmmm....must give that some thought<P>Firstly, how is it going to be decided whether someone in the film (RotK, that is) is a starring actor or a supporting actor. Technically, there are five or six people starring in the movie and countless people supporting.<P>Secondly, I, sadly, do not think RotK will get any of the most coveted Oscars since, despite epic quality, it is still fantasy and those are often set aside for that epic adoration given them by so many, rather than awards (even though it did win the Golden Globe's most coveted, YAY!).<P>Thirdly, I fervently hope that the following things will be nominated and possible win: Howard Shore's magnificent score, Sean Astin for a touching portrayal of Sam, Viggo Mortensen perhaps (that guy just made his career with this trilogy. Do you know how many movie deals he's been offered now?), and PJ for best director. You have to admit, as much as the book-to-movie storyline is mangled, that man held together three tremendous movies very well.