Radagast's Whereabouts and Gandalf's Plan...

[The Saucepan Man]

I don't think Gandalf really had a plan for Mordor.

No, I don't suppose that he did either, Finwe. He would have been only too aware that situations would arise which could not be predicted, but which would guide the path of the Quest. He also probably recognised (and perhaps intended) that not all of the Fellowship would make the journey to Mordor. And he knew that no-one, not even Frodo, would be able willingly to destroy the Ring when it came to it.

So I would imagine that his only firm plan at the start was to set out from Rivendell in the direction of Mordor. While he could by no means be certain that the Quest would succeed, he put his faith in providence (Iluvatar) to guide it to its conclusion.

Much the same can be said, I think, about the Quest of Erebor. His intention in bringing Thorin and Bilbo together and setting out with them for Erebor was to deal with Smaug, who he feared "Sauron might use with terrible effect", and to ensure that some resistance lay in the way of Sauron should he try to "regain the northern passes in the mountains and the old lands of Angmar". But he had no more idea about how Thorin, Bilbo and co might go about defeating Smaug than he did about how the Ring might be taken into Mordor and cast into Orodruin.

Two passages in particular in The Quest of Erebor in Unfinished Tales show Gandalf's reliance on providence to ensure the completion of this Quest. In relating how he came to line up Bilbo to accompany Thorin and company, he says:

I did no more than follow the lead of "chance", and made many mistakes on the way.

Then, having told his tale of how the company was assembled, he says:

So it was that the Quest of Erebor set out. I do not suppose that when it started Thorin had any real hope of destroying Smaug. There was no hope. Yet it happened.

I should imagine that Gandalf felt much the same way when the Fellowship set out from Rivendell.

[ July 22, 2003: Message edited by: The Saucepan Man ]